2015 Result:
Conservative: 15319 (31.1%)
Labour: 4898 (9.9%)
Lib Dem: 1395 (2.8%)
SNP: 24384 (49.5%)
Green: 1345 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1939 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 9065 (18.4%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Highlands and islands. The whole of the Moray council area.

Main population centres: Elgin, Forres, Buckie, Keith, Dufftown.

Profile: A rural seat in north east Scotland, stretching down into the Cairngorms National Park. The main centres of population are Forres and the Cathedral Burgh of Elgin. The river Spey runs through the seat and its valley forms a premier area for the distilling of malt whisky, important distilleries here includes the Glenfiddich and Balvenie Distilleries at Dufftown. The RAF are also important local employers, with the only remaining Scottish airforce base RAF Lossiemouth.

Politics: An SNP seat with the Conservatives normally in second place..

Current MP
ANGUS ROBERTSON (Scottish National Party) Born 1969, Wimbledon. Educated at Broughton High School and Aberdeen University. Former journalist. First elected as MP for Moray in 2001.
Past Results
Con: 10683 (26%)
Lab: 7007 (17%)
LDem: 5956 (15%)
SNP: 16273 (40%)
Oth: 1085 (3%)
MAJ: 5590 (14%)
Con: 8520 (22%)
Lab: 7919 (20%)
LDem: 7460 (19%)
SNP: 14196 (37%)
Oth: 698 (2%)
MAJ: 5676 (15%)
Con: 7677 (23%)
Lab: 8332 (25%)
LDem: 5224 (16%)
SNP: 10076 (30%)
Oth: 1914 (6%)
MAJ: 1744 (5%)
Con: 10963 (28%)
Lab: 7886 (20%)
LDem: 3548 (9%)
SNP: 16529 (42%)
Oth: 840 (2%)
MAJ: 5566 (14%)

2015 Candidates
DOUGLAS ROSS (Conservative) Parliamentary researcher. Moray councillor. Contested Moray 2010.
SEAN MORTON (Labour) Educated at Milnes High School and Stirling University. Moray councillor since 2012.
JAMIE PATERSON (Liberal Democrat) Born 1972.
JAMES MACKESSACK-LEITCH (Green) Educated at Glasgow University.
Comments - 262 Responses on “Moray”
  1. Labour also made major advances in local government in these years when the SNP lost support in local elections. Despite being strong in parliamentary elections the Conservatives had little presence locally due to the dominance of independents.

  2. “I really do have to take exception to Dalek‚Äôs description”

    Well of course you do

  3. NTY UK,

    I agree that there’s nothing to see here.

    Scotland Goes Pop sees 99% of news as doubleplusgood for the SNP. It’s like looking to the Scottish Conservatives’ homepage for analysis of polling. The quality of the reasoning is suggested by the reference to subsamples…

  4. Dalek
    “Surely by anybody book a 1700 SNP majority over Labour was a tight SNP/ Labour marginal?”

    Not when its clearly an anomaly, it was the best Lab had ever done and have ever done since, one close result doesn’t make a marginal, only if it votes that way repeatedly does it indicate competiveness. Take a seat like Hexham for example, in 97 Lab fell short by just 222 votes, that would normally qualify it as an ultra marginal but it was never really seen that way since the seat had always been Tory and consensus is/was that if a seat resisted the Lab wave in 97 it would likely never go red (save big demographic changes) and that’s evidently what’s happened in Hexham with Lab now way out of contention.

    Moray was a close(ish) result where the vote was split three ways, this deceptively made it seem like Lab was in with a shot when they never really were and subsequent results have demonstrated that, its less a case of Lab underperformance as it reversion to the norm..

  5. But by the same logic some people in this site are arguing that Scottish Labour have done extraordinary well by winning what before 2015 were ultra safe Labour seats with tiny majorities.

    By this logic Glasgow North East was still an ultra safe Labour seat because the fact that it had only once not voted Labour would mean that it could not be regarded as a safe SNP seat.

    Personally, I believe that 2001 represented the high water mark for Scottish Labour when they were banging on the doors of many rural constituencies including Moray, Argyll and Tweeddale and 2015 was clearly the high watermark for the SNP. Labour not only lost seats in 2005 but were pushed in seats like this. Apart from the brief Brown bounce in 2010, it has all been downhill for Scottish Labour till 2017.

  6. Dalek
    “By this logic Glasgow North East was still an ultra safe Labour seat”

    Different situation entirely, for one there is obviously a huge difference in coming very close in a seat and actually winning it.

    Most importantly though the colossal swings the SNP enjoyed in 2015 were indicative of a wider change in voting behaviour caused by the Indy ref, a small bump in Labs vote though in 2001 isn’t really indicative of anything.

  7. But there were some huge swings from Con to Lab across Scotland in 2001…not just a small bump.

    Look at the collapse of the Conservative vote in Aberdeen South and Eastwood that also occurred in that year together with further lost ground in places like Stirling.

    The only better results for the Conservatives were Ayr and Edinburgh Pentlands.

  8. The logic that Tories in Lab/SNP marginals will not want to help the Labour Party into power is flawed because the SNP has been completely clear that it would support Labour at Westminster anyway.

    The only reason that there were decent Tory vote shares in a lot of the central belt seats this time round is that they were assumed to be safe SNP seats anyway. If Tory voters in Glasgow East, for example, had known how close it was going to be between the SNP and Labour, they’d probably have backed Labour in sufficient numbers to turn the seat red.

  9. Douglas Ross is supporting Mark Harper.

  10. Moray is the first seat north of the border that the SNP have failed to take.

  11. Fortunately there is no border – let’s hope it stays that way.

  12. Douglas Ross is running for the leadership of the Scottish Tories. Seen as the frontrunner, and he may go uncontested because, frankly, it’s a hopeless task.

    The plan is for him to secure a Holyrood seat at the next election (which should be easy if he just puts himself at the top of a regional list), with Ruth Davidson filling in for him until then. That would also leave the Tories with the impossible-looking task of defending the Westminster seat.

    All sounds like a lot of hassle to be honest. He’d better be good…

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