Montgomeryshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 15204 (45%)
Labour: 1900 (5.6%)
Lib Dem: 9879 (29.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1745 (5.2%)
Green: 1260 (3.7%)
UKIP: 3769 (11.2%)
MAJORITY: 5325 (15.8%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Wales, Powys. Part of Powys council area.

Main population centres: Newtown, Welshpool, Machynlleth, Llanidloes, Montgomery.

Profile: A rural and sparsely populated seat, mostly mountainous in the west but coming down into fertile, rolling farmland towards the English border. The local economy is dominated by agriculture, arable in the lower area, sheep farming in the hills. The largest settlements are the newtown of Newtown (the name long predates its 1960s designation) and the agricultural market town of Welshpool, both close to the English border in the east of the constituency.

Politics: Historically this was a reliable Liberal seat, held by the Liberals and Liberal Democrats almost continuously since 1880, most notably by former party leader Clement Davies. In 1979 it was briefly won by the Conservatives before being regained by the Liberals under Alex Carlile (a prominent barrister who later, as Lord Carlile, became the independent reviewer of government terrorist legislation. Carlile was succeeded in 1997 by Lembit Opik, whose colourful eccentricities were sometimes blamed for the seat falling to the Conservatives in 2010.


Current MP
GLYN DAVIES (Conservative) Born 1944, Welshpool. Educated at Llanfair Caereinion High School and Aberystwyth University. Former farmer and former chairman of the Development board for rural Wales. Montgomeryshire councillor 1979-89. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997. Member of the Welsh Assembly for Mid and West Wales 1999-2007. First elected as MP for Montgomeryshire in 2010. PPS to Cheryl Gillan 2010-2012.
Past Results
2010
Con: 13976 (41%)
Lab: 2407 (7%)
LDem: 12792 (38%)
PC: 2802 (8%)
Oth: 1836 (5%)
MAJ: 1184 (4%)
2005*
Con: 8246 (27%)
Lab: 3454 (11%)
LDem: 15419 (51%)
PC: 2078 (7%)
Oth: 900 (3%)
MAJ: 7173 (24%)
2001
Con: 8085 (28%)
Lab: 3443 (12%)
LDem: 14319 (49%)
PC: 1969 (7%)
Oth: 1167 (4%)
MAJ: 6234 (22%)
1997
Con: 8344 (26%)
Lab: 6109 (19%)
LDem: 14647 (46%)
PC: 1608 (5%)
Oth: 1217 (4%)
MAJ: 6303 (20%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GLYN DAVIES (Conservative) See above.
MARTYN SINGLETON (Labour)
JANE DODDS (Liberal Democrat) Born Wrexham. Former Richmond councillor.
DES PARKINSON (UKIP) Born Brecon. Retired Chief superintendent.
RICHARD CHALONER (Green)
ANN GRIFFITH (Plaid) Social care consultant. Anglesey councillor.
Links
Comments - 459 Responses on “Montgomeryshire”
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  1. Baz, do you think there’s any chance of an LD gain? I can see it in 2022, as I’ve said before, but doubtful now. Will LD percent go up?

  2. It is always a possibility and they always give it a go. However, the party would need to be polling much more nationally. They have held tis seat with very low national ratings in the distant past but demographics are moving against them with many incomers in the north-east of the constituency from Tory areas in Shropshire and beyond who have little Liberal tradition.

  3. Good to hear your thoughts. I don’t disagree. I suppose it depends how much of a campaign bump they get, if any.

  4. have had my third Lib Dem council leaflet in the last 10 days today plus I saw Jane Dodds with the candidate in the village, although they did not call on me. The Tories were leafleting here for the locals as well today – at least 3 of them. The parties are taking the locals seriously as this has always been an Independent seat. I understand that they will not be counting until Friday.

  5. I have been receiving as much literature through my door for the council election as I would get in a GE. in the last week – 1 Con, 1 Green (+ a glossy card from them for my wife) and 3 Lib Dem. I already have a stack from previous weeks. Con and LD have canvassed parts of the village in the last few days. Despite only getting 3% in the Assembly election last year the Greens claim the contest (in a very Con v LD area) is between them and Con. More realistically, the LDs are claiming it’s between them and Con.

  6. First signs of the GE today. Wednesday is market day in Machynlleth, with lots of people about. Jane Dodds was there with a Lib Dem Team having breakfast outside a cafe.I did not see any posters on my way there. I will be in Newtown later this week and expect to start seeing posters from various parties. Nothing in my village since the locals last week. I am speculating that UKIP might not stand as their 2015 candidate is now a Tory. This seat might be a Labour lost deposit.

    As an aside, if anyone is in mid Wales, Machynlleth market is one of the better ones and there are some great cafes.

  7. Definitely a Labour lost deposit

  8. Over the last few days I have driven main roads from the boundary with Ceredigion to Welshpool via Machynlleth and Newtown (not all in one go). The only posters I saw were 2 Green posters left over from the locals. Someone had stuck a large Lib Dem leaflet in a window on the main street in Machynlleth. At this stage in 2015 the main roads were turning blue and orange. I presume that the delay is due to the surprise announcement of the election. 2 leaflets so far – both Lib Dem 1 postal not mentioning the local candidate and 1 hand-delivered naming her which I think was the same as I saw in Machynlleth. No election atmosphere yet.

  9. A seat where I think only the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats will keep their deposits.

    Any others on that list?
    North Cornwall
    North Devon
    Westmorland & Lonsdale

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