Mole Valley

2015 Result:
Conservative: 33434 (60.6%)
Labour: 4565 (8.3%)
Lib Dem: 7981 (14.5%)
Green: 2979 (5.4%)
UKIP: 6181 (11.2%)
MAJORITY: 25453 (46.2%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Surrey. Most of the Mole Valley council area and part of the Guildford council area.

Main population centres: Leatherhead, Dorking, Fetcham, Charlwood, Gomshall, Shere.

Profile: A rural seat to the south-west of London and north-west of Gatwick airport, geographically the largest seat in Surrey. The seat can be characterised as an affluent slice of the London commuter belt, with the residents of the rural and semi-rural villages that are scattered amongst the North Downs generally travelling into London for work. The two main towns are Dorking, the administrative centre for Mole Valley council, and Leatherhead, home to Unilever`s UK headquarters, many of Exxon`s UK offices and a cluster of high tech and research businesses.

Politics: A very safe Conservative seat, previously represented by the former Home Secretary Kenneth Baker. The current MP, Sir Paul Beresford, used to be the MP for Croydon Central but lost the selection battle for the seat after boundary changes in the lead up to the 1997 election. Beresford instead secured the nomination for Mole Valley and was returned to Parliament while Croydon Central fell to Labour.


Current MP
PAUL BERESFORD (Conservative) Born 1946, New Zealand. Educated at Waimea College and Otago University. Former dentist. Wandsworth councillor 1978-1992, Leader of Wandsworth Council 1983-1992.MP for Croydon Central 1992-1997. First elected as MP for Mole Valley in 1997. Under Secretary of State at the Department for the Environment 1994-1997. Knighted for services to inner-city regeneration in 1990.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31263 (58%)
Lab: 3804 (7%)
LDem: 15610 (29%)
UKIP: 2752 (5%)
Oth: 895 (2%)
MAJ: 15653 (29%)
2005
Con: 27060 (55%)
Lab: 5310 (11%)
LDem: 15063 (30%)
UKIP: 1475 (3%)
Oth: 507 (1%)
MAJ: 11997 (24%)
2001
Con: 23790 (51%)
Lab: 7837 (17%)
LDem: 13637 (29%)
UKIP: 1333 (3%)
Oth: 475 (1%)
MAJ: 10153 (22%)
1997
Con: 26178 (48%)
Lab: 8057 (15%)
LDem: 15957 (29%)
Oth: 1908 (3%)
MAJ: 10221 (19%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
PAUL BERESFORD (Conservative) See above.
LEN AMOS (Labour)
PAUL KENNEDY (Liberal Democrat)
PAUL OAKLEY (UKIP)
JACQUETTA FEWSTER (Green)
Links
Comments - 68 Responses on “Mole Valley”
  1. No of course I don’t.

    In seats like this and SW Surrey, I think the Lib Dems will recover their historical position, ie. a good second place with 30% of the vote.

    SW London (meaning Richmond, Twickenham, Kingston, not Sutton) is a different kettle of fish to Surrey proper.

  2. Richmond Park is probably Zac Goldsmith’s for as long as he wants it – despite his toxic mayoral campaign and anti-EU credentials, he still seems to retain a lot of popularity within his own constituency. Particularly because of his Heathrow campaigning, but also he just seems a very good fit for the particular character of the seat.

    Other SW London seats may be vulnerable though.

  3. Also isn’t Kew Gardens in Richmond? He’d probably get a few votes from the people employed there…

  4. Actually I think Mole Valley was quite a good result for Remain. The number of over-65s is quite high for Surrey and quite similar Home Counties seats went Leave.

  5. Districts I should say, not seats.

  6. Waverley was most surprising for me, with 58%. There’s almost nothing to choose between it and Mole Valley on any of the demographic or political factors we might have predicted these things by. I’d have bet good money in Guildford being the best area in Surrey for remain but no, it was behind (less surprisingly) Elmbridge and also Waverley.

  7. South Bucks being Leave was one that surprised me. Several in Bucks and Herts were very close for Leave and it may have been caused by a much higher turnout in the few deprived bits where they don’t normally bother to vote.

  8. Maxim Parr-Reid

    “If Labour get their act together and Gove is Tory leader I think that could easily happen”

    I am a constituent of Jane Ellison’s in Battersea. I delivered leaflets for her at both of the last two General Elections, and was ecstatic when she massively increased her majority at the last election. However, if Michael Gove wins (and had Boris Johnson won) the Conservative leadership, I will not be voting Conservative again, even though I like Jane Ellison as a constituency MP. I will vote Liberal Democrat if Labour do not replace Jeremy Corbyn with a more moderate leader, and will consider voting Labour if they go for someone I admire.

    The only thing that would keep me Conservative then would be if Jane Ellison voted against Article 50, seeing as 75% of us in Wandsworth voted for Remain. I don’t know if it has to be voted on if it is triggered, does it? If Theresa May wins, I shall stay Conservative, however.

  9. Len Amos (Labour PPC here in 2015) has defected to UKIP.

    He is standing for them in Aldershot South in the County Council elections.

  10. Perhaps a sign that the old boy should retire…that isn’t even a very heavy Scottish accent.

  11. Beresford is a Kiwi. Non-Brits very often struggle with the regional accents here. My wife is an American and finds the Scots accent impossible, she had to put the subtitles on for The Bodyguard.

  12. Yes, but your wife isn’t an MP (unless I’ve really missed something haha). Plus he’s been in the UK for a long time. How much in Parliament has he not been able to understand?

  13. A lot of American Dr Who fans struggled with Jodie Whittaker’s yorkshire accent

  14. “Hoodezfield”

  15. “Yes, but your wife isn’t an MP (unless I’ve really missed something haha). Plus he’s been in the UK for a long time. How much in Parliament has he not been able to understand?”

    My wife’s been here almost 13 years now and it hasn’t made much difference to her ability to understand accents. Alan Clark famously said MPs often have little clue what others are talking about in the HoC, nor know much about what they’re voting on.

  16. Clark made a good point, although I’m sure he would’ve understood more if he hadn’t turned up pissed half the time.

  17. In those days most MPs were pissed, many for all the time rather than just half of it. Inevitable given the endless hanging around during late sittings.

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