Milton Keynes North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 27244 (47.2%)
Labour: 17491 (30.3%)
Lib Dem: 3575 (6.2%)
Green: 2255 (3.9%)
UKIP: 6852 (11.9%)
TUSC: 163 (0.3%)
Independent: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 9753 (16.9%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Buckinghamshire. Part of the Milton Keynes council area.

Main population centres: Milton Keynes, Newport Pagnell, Olney, Hanslope.

Profile: Milton Keynes is the biggest planned newtown in Britain, effectively the only "new city", the town is built on a characteristic grid of roundabouts with a central shopping and leisure district. The town is almost all built since the 1960s, and has a younger population than most of the south-east. The northern seat is the more rural, taking in the small villages to the north of the town itself.

Politics: Both of the Milton Keynes seats are Con-Lab marginals. They were created (as Milton Keynes North East and South West) in 1992, in an unusual interim Parliamentary boundary review that split the existing Milton Keynes seat into two.


Current MP
MARK LANCASTER (Conservative) Born 1970, Cambridge. Educated at Kimbolton School and Buckingham University. Former director of the family fireworks company. Huntingdonshire councillor 1995-1999. Contested Nuneaton 2001. First elected as MP for Milton Keynes North East in 2005. PPS to Andrew Mitchell 2010-2012, Government whip 2012-2015. Junior Defence minister since 2015. A Lieutenant Colonel and bomb disposal officer in the Territorial Army, he has seen active service in Kosovo, Bosnia and Afghanistan.
Past Results
2010
Con: 23419 (43%)
Lab: 14458 (27%)
LDem: 11894 (22%)
UKIP: 1772 (3%)
Oth: 2345 (4%)
MAJ: 8961 (17%)
2005*
Con: 19674 (39%)
Lab: 18009 (36%)
LDem: 9789 (20%)
UKIP: 1400 (3%)
Oth: 1232 (2%)
MAJ: 1665 (3%)
2001
Con: 17932 (38%)
Lab: 19761 (42%)
LDem: 8375 (18%)
UKIP: 1026 (2%)
MAJ: 1829 (4%)
1997
Con: 19961 (39%)
Lab: 20201 (39%)
LDem: 8907 (17%)
Oth: 675 (1%)
MAJ: 240 (0%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Milton Keynes North East

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARK LANCASTER (Conservative) See above.
EMILY DARLINGTON (Labour) Educated at Concordia University. Associate at NESTA and former special advisor to Alistair Darling.
PAUL GRAHAM (Liberal Democrat) Born Leighton Buzzard. Educated at Exeter University. Lecturer.
DAVID REILLY (UKIP)
JENNIFER MARKLEW (Green) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Accounts administrator.
DAVID MORTIMER (Independent) Postman.
KATIE SIMPSON (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 76 Responses on “Milton Keynes North”
  1. You can move Watermead but I don’t know how acceptable that would be as it essentially looks like Aylesbury suburbs…

  2. Presumably means Labs chances in the new MK SW are improved?

  3. Actually no just looked Lab get screwed in Milton Keynes cos the BC put Wolverton in Buckingham!!! What a grotesque decision regardless of your politics.

  4. A win is a win I suppose

  5. For now at least Labour is very much back in business in the more urban parts of the south-east

  6. A 7% swing here to Labour and 6% in MK South seems to demonstrate how age demographics affected GE2017. Milton Keynes has a notably younger age profile than most constituencies.

  7. If the YouGov poll recently was an actual GE result, then both MK seats would fall to Labour I’d guess, along with Reading East, Swindon South, Watford, Stevenage, Crawley, Worthing East.

    Kind of crazy when you consider that only a ‘centrist’ like Blair was supposed to be able to reach out to these ‘aspirational’ towns.

  8. Sorry, make that Reading West.

  9. Talking about these polls – have the pollsters changed their methods yet or are they still applying those harsh turnout filters that the election result defied? Because if they are, you can mentally add another three or four points onto the reported Labour lead…

  10. Survation haven’t clearlly. YouGov have dropped the reallocation of Don’t Knows they introduced in the last week of the campaign. ICM have dropped the turnout model, reallocated the Don’t Knows of voters who refused to give past voting intentions and now poll online instead of on the phone.

  11. Whichever way you look at it this was am extraordinary result for Labour, admittedly the MK North boundaries are slightly more Lab friendly than the old MK NE but regardless Lab only won MK NE by 240 votes in 1997 and (notionally) held MK North by only 800 odd votes in 2005 only to lose it decisively in 2010. I’d have thought that this would be a seat Lab could only win in their landslide years but to reduce the Con majority to just 3% in an election we lost!!!

    I was also under the impression that this seat was drifting away from Lab, MK is growing rapidly and some of the new developments within this seat look very exclusive, I really can’t imagine Lab having much clout outside Wolverton and the City Centre but to get this result they must have been clearly ahead in Stantonbury and Bradwell and possibly even ahead in Campbell Park

    I do believe this was Maxim’s home seat, I wonder what he would have had to say had he still been here XD

  12. This seat moved pretty much in line with national swings from 1992 to 2010, so in my opinion wasn’t ‘drifting’ either way. In that respect I think it’s an excellent example of the changed dynamics of GE2017. But of course the age-based voting pattern we saw last month can’t be expected to deliver continued movement in the same direction, unless the age-profile of seats like this somehow continues to get younger, and the likes of Christchurch become even more geriatric.

    Incidentally, before all his comments were removed, Maxim had predicted a 30% Con Majority here, so was a decimal place away from being right.

  13. Like its neighbour though, this didn’t seem to be the sort of seat that Corbyn would go down well at all so I’m inclined to share Rivers surprise at how Labour dud, given they had only won this seat before in their landslide years of 1997 (by a couple of votes) and 2001

    I was under the impression Mark Lancaster was a pretty well-liked, hard-working Mp who had a fairly substantial personal vote but this result brings that into question

    Or maybe the Labour candidate was just very good

  14. As above, I’d attribute the result to the age profile, and a comparatively strong Remain vote (it was 49%, I think). To quote YouGov’s analysis, below, “In electoral terms, age seems to be the new dividing line in British politics.”

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/

  15. Chris K posting

    I live in this constituency (Monkston Park) and I think the “new development will favour the Tories” line might have been overdone, not least by myself. Like many new developments across the nation, MK North, was having ostensibly high class developments, is actually developing a number of large areas where narrow streets combined with townhouses, combined with a cheap level of overall housebuilding, means that some of those areas and not as well to do as people might think. I also note that my own area, whilst I would say it is relatively affluent, has some poor areas and it’s far more diverse in terms of Ethnicy than I previously had envisaged.

  16. Its official folks, the Tories have launched their own version of Momentum, designed to “engage young people with Conservatism” they present us with…ACTIVATE!!!!!

    You might be wondering why I’m posting this on the MK North thread? Personally I just got the impression that a certain ex contributor on this site who lives in this seat might have a hand in all this…he’s probably running their Twitter profile me thinks.

  17. For reference:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/08/momentum-tories-has-launched-ancient-creaking-meme

    Personally I think the Jacob Rees-Mogg stuff is closer to a Conservative Momentum than Activate is. #Moggmentum, regardless of how daft it looks to everyone outside the small band of right-wing true believers, seems like a pretty organic movement. Whoever is behind Activate, by contrast, has failed to grasp that movements generate memes, not the other way around.

  18. Even the name “Activate” has the ring of the focus group. It’s the sort of dumb name Apprentice contestants give to their teams (though, it could be said, the same is true of “Momentum”).

  19. Well, at least they are trying. It would be far easier for the Tories to just hunker down and ignore everyone under 40.

  20. One more observation: it’s too negative. Activate doesn’t have anything to inspire, it just seems to be slagging off Jeremy Corbyn and therefore repeating the mistakes of the general election campaign.

    And the memes aren’t even very good.

  21. Tristan: it’s pretty obvious what the Tories have to do to win over young people. Stop pandering to the bastard lovechild of Rupert Murdoch and Donald Trump. Bring some fairness into higher education. And build some bloody houses. See countless op-eds written by people across the spectrum – it’s only a few delirious left-wingers, punch-drunk on Jeremy Corbyn’s relative success, that believe millennials have unanimously become socialists overnight. Give young people something concrete to hang onto and they will vote for you. Give them crippling tuition fees and unaffordable room rents, and reverse much of David Cameron’s detoxifying measures on social issues, and when someone comes along offering something else, don’t be surprised if you get annihilated.

  22. Going back to the seat itself, outside the Woughton and Central wards, it’s hard to fathom where the rest of the Labour vote could have come from for them to run the Tories so close

    The Tory vote seemed to hold up much better in the more working class new towns like Harlow, Telford, Basildon and Stevenage

  23. According to Guido, Moggmentum is a left wing conspiracy to portray right wingers as silly.

    Activate memes arent very good. Yeah at least they are trying they need thr practice

  24. @ Tim Jones

    Do you really not understand how the demographic profile of this seat matches with the kind of people who tended to back Labour in GE2017? It’s a notably young seat, with fewer over 75s(5.9%) than almost anywhere outside London. It has a higher than average proportion of graduates, and was also very close to 50:50 in the EU referendum, which was very different to the other new towns you mention.

  25. I think Polltroll’s above observations are 100% on the money, the only thing I’d add is that while Moggmentum may be organic it hasn’t really bloomed into anything of note as of yet. For reference 2015’s Millafandom (which ultimately amounted to nothing in terms of electoral dividends) had a vastly bigger social media presence in terms of retweets, memes, shares etc than Moggmentum and that links back to what Pollroll said about “movements generating memes, not the other way around” the Millafandom had some great original memes, not least the liberal use of the “hell yes I’m tough enough” line. What’s more its surprisingly stood the test of time and persists on Twitter to this day with things such as “The Milliverse” Time will tell if Moggmentum or Activate can reach the same scale.

  26. To go back to the discussion of (De-)Activate, I think ultimately its emergence (and hopefully swift disappearance) is symptomatic of the fact that young Tories have found it necessary to cultivate a “nobody likes us, we don’t care” attitude just to survive as individuals. This may work for Millwall fans but is utterly self-defeating as a strategy for political activists – getting people to agree with you is the very aim of the game – and the only reason they are forced into it is because of the extreme volumes of mud thrown at them force them to go into their shells. In retrospect, I suspect it’s quite likely that Maxim’s slow-motion breakdown probably had similar origins, particularly considering that the fact he’s studying politics meant he couldn’t really get away from it.

    https://twitter.com/StevenEdginton/status/903721779750871040

    I came across this Twitter thread yesterday. I think the comments underneath it, largely of the “no sympathy for Tory scum” variety, largely reflect the points it made.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)