Mid Dorset and North Poole

2015 Result:
Conservative: 23639 (50.8%)
Labour: 2767 (6%)
Lib Dem: 13109 (28.2%)
Green: 1321 (2.8%)
UKIP: 5663 (12.2%)
MAJORITY: 10530 (22.6%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Dorset.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
MICHAEL TOMLINSON (Conservative) Barrister. First elected as MP for Mid Dorset and North Poole in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20831 (45%)
Lab: 2748 (6%)
LDem: 21100 (45%)
UKIP: 2109 (5%)
MAJ: 269 (1%)
2005*
Con: 16518 (37%)
Lab: 5221 (12%)
LDem: 22000 (49%)
UKIP: 1420 (3%)
MAJ: 5482 (12%)
2001
Con: 17974 (41%)
Lab: 6765 (15%)
LDem: 18358 (42%)
UKIP: 621 (1%)
MAJ: 384 (1%)
1997
Con: 20632 (41%)
Lab: 8014 (16%)
LDem: 19951 (39%)
MAJ: 681 (1%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MICHAEL TOMLINSON (Conservative) Barrister.
PATRICK CANAVAN (Labour) Former trade union officer. Contested Newton Abbot 2010.
VIKKI SLADE (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Tonbridge Grammar School for Girls. Former debt councillor, runs a catering company. Poole councillor since 2011.
RICHARD TURNER (UKIP) Educated at Harlington School. Marina director.
MARK CHIVERS (Green) Contested South West region 2014 European elections.
Links
Comments - 183 Responses on “Mid Dorset and North Poole”
  1. I presume by the silence here that Brian May did not throw his hat (or wig) into the ring?

  2. I’m thinking this will be Tory by 4-7% but not much more and will be a key LD target at the next election, really.

  3. Absolutely. The Lib Dems will be looking to stay in touch here for 2020 if that is indeed the next election, as they remain fairly strong locally.

  4. CON GAIN

    LD – 34
    CON – 40
    LAB – 11
    UKIP – 12
    O – 3

  5. Brian May has switched his attentions to supporting Adrian Sanders in Torbay

  6. CON win

  7. Con gain 4000

  8. LD hold 50 after 2 recounts

  9. Err the above prediction was for S.t Ives. Ignore

  10. Conservative Gain. 4,000 maj.

  11. Final result

    Con 51
    LD 28
    UKIP 12
    Lab 6

    Majority of over10,000

    Ashcroft Sep 2014

    Q1
    Con 43
    LD 19
    UKIP 22
    Lab 11

    Q2
    Con 38
    LD 32
    UKIP 19
    Lab 8

    Again, Q1 was the better steer; Q2 hopelessly wrong really…

  12. Maybe I’m wrong but it seems as if when polling is wrong it’s usually biased against the centre-right party or parties in favour of everyone else including more right-wing parties and those to the left of centre. If that’s true it may be due to a systemic problem which underestimates that type of voter.

  13. 10000 Con majority. So much for a ‘shock’ LD hold

  14. The most laughable Lib Dem ramp was surely the Maidstone & Weald stuff though.

  15. To be fair, all the ones suggesting they would gain seats were pretty far-fetched.

  16. Maidstone was hilarious. Watford stupid but forgivable, OxwAb stupid, Montgomeryshire ridiculous, Ashfield hysterical.

    Although I did like your logic about St Ives Runymeade

  17. St. Ives…where the bad candidate is in fact good? Or was he actually bad after all?

  18. where has p.t.richards gone? his “liberals will gain here” diatribes were hilarious…one thing i did get right was that the liberals wouldn’t not gain any seats…no sh~t!

  19. People have been asking the same about you these past few weeks….on which thread have you posted your mea culpa? 🙂

  20. The Maidstone one was a Gloy one I think.

  21. can you have stupendous momentum backwards?!

  22. Perhaps so – into minus figures.

  23. The LibDems did well to hold this seat, twice on very small majorities, between 2001 and 2015. This does not seem like natural LibDem territory.

    On the LibDem target list, at 46 this seat is one after Maidstone, which is 45. However, this seat has a fresh MP. Providing he does a competent job he should not build up the handicaps that the Tories appear to be accumulating for themselves in Maidstone.

  24. Mid Dorset is ripe for a boundary redraw of quite possibly life changing significance to any party that holds or did hold it…

  25. The proposed Mid Dorset had a notional Conservative majority of nearly 5000 in 2010 making it even harder for the Lib Dems to mount any kind of comeback in 2020.

  26. Yes this seat really has to my mind always had a bit of an unnatural feel about it. Even the name for the seat itself took a long time to be agreed on I believe.

  27. And it’s a terribly ugly name too. Personally, I’d have called it Wareham and Wimbourne.

  28. Personally I wouldn’t have this seat exist at all..

  29. The Results- oh I agree with you on that but the area is not the easiest to carve up. I think the northern but of the seat around Wimbourne could potentially be tied with Blandford Forum in some kind of NE Dorset seat. Wareham could be linked with Swanage and/or possibly Dorchester but that would leave the question of what to do about Weymouth.

  30. *northern part of the seat

  31. That’s the problem isn’t it- Dorset is the kind of big county that is always bound to have one seat left that has to be arranged that connects sometimes disparate parts- not necessarily the case here, yet all the same this seat’s creation and indeed very existence has always been a bit curious to say the least.

  32. Dorset is one of England’s smaller counties, but hey ho…

    Boundary review proposes to abolish this monstrosity of a seat (Mid Dorset), and about time.

    Some surprising choices around the Bournemouth/Poole area inc. a northern suburban seat and a Bournemouth/Christchurch pairing.

    Rump North Dorset again twinned with S Wilts as in the zombie review. Wareham & Bere back in S Dorset where indeed they used to be.

    I don’t have notionals but at a guess all probably notionally Conservative.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)