Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney

2015 Result:
Conservative: 3292 (10.1%)
Labour: 17619 (53.9%)
Lib Dem: 1351 (4.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 3099 (9.5%)
Green: 603 (1.8%)
UKIP: 6106 (18.7%)
Independent: 459 (1.4%)
Others: 186 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11513 (35.2%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Wales, Mid Glamorgan. The whole of the Merthyr Tydfil council area and part of Caerphilly council area.

Main population centres: Merthyr Tydfil, Rhymney, New Tredegar, Aberfan, Treharris.

Profile: A Welsh valley seat, Merthyr was once an industrial boom town and the biggest town in Wales, but its iron and coal industries went into early decline, Rhymney is a former coal mining town that suffered a similar but later decline. The area continues to suffer from deprivation, unemployment and poor health. The village of Aberfan in the constituency is infamous for the 1966 disaster, when a spoil pile of mining debris collapsed and buried a local junior school, killing 116 children.

Politics: A rock-solid Labour seat, though one that is capable of springing the occassional surprise. In 1970 the sitting Labour MP S.O.Davies was deselected due to his advanced age (he claimed to be 84, but was probably 91) and he won the election as an Independent (he died less than two years later). Plaid have performed strongly in the Welsh Assembly seat and in the 2010 Westminster election the Liberal Democrats reduced the Labour majority to 13% before collapsing to fifth place in 2015.

Current MP
GERALD JONES (Labour) First elected as MP for Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 2412 (8%)
Lab: 14007 (44%)
LDem: 9951 (31%)
PC: 1621 (5%)
Oth: 4085 (13%)
MAJ: 4056 (13%)
Con: 2680 (9%)
Lab: 18129 (60%)
LDem: 4195 (14%)
PC: 2972 (10%)
Oth: 2000 (7%)
MAJ: 13934 (46%)
Con: 2272 (7%)
Lab: 19574 (62%)
LDem: 2385 (8%)
PC: 4651 (15%)
Oth: 2802 (9%)
MAJ: 14923 (47%)
Con: 2508 (6%)
Lab: 30012 (77%)
LDem: 2926 (7%)
PC: 2344 (6%)
Oth: 1351 (3%)
MAJ: 27086 (69%)

2015 Candidates
BILL REES (Conservative)
BOB GRIFFIN (Liberal Democrat)
EDDY BLANCHE (Independent)
Comments - 22 Responses on “Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney”
  1. A closer look at the result here in 1970-
    Davies- (Ind Labour), 16,701 (51.90%, N/A)
    Lloyd- (Labour), 9,234 (28.69%, -45.8%)
    Jones- (Conservative), 3,169 (9.85%, -4.14%)
    Rees- (Plaid Cymru), 3,076 (9.56%, -1.96%)

    Majority- 7,467 (23.20%)
    Swing- +48.85% From Lab to Ind Lab.

  2. A ‘guess’ for 2015 subject to whether independents stand

    Lab 55
    LD 13
    PC 12
    UKIP 9
    Con 3
    Others 8

    A Con lost deposit is an absolute certainty here.

  3. Prediction for 2015-
    Jones (Labour)- 56%
    Plaid Cymru- 14%
    Liberal Democrats- 12%
    UKIP- 11%
    Independent- 5%
    Conservative- 2%

  4. “A Con lost deposit is an absolute certainty here.”

    Why is it? They have not lost their deposit here previously since the threshold has been raised. They would need to be losing a third of their vote share compared with the last election. What basis do you have for thinking that is likely let alone certain?

  5. Agreed. A lot of crap being posted on here again recently.

  6. OK, here’s a revised prediction perhaps more in touch with reality-
    Jones (Labour)- 59%
    Liberal Democrats- 12%
    Plaid Cymru- 11%
    UKIP- 9%
    Conservative- 6%
    Independent- 3%

  7. The Results

    Why don’t you have a go at some interesting marginal rather than all these uninteresting safe seats.

    Croydon Central for example

  8. Hemmelig

    I am having a laugh LOL.

    The marginals are difficult this far out I think, given the uncertainty surrounding what the outcome might be overall nationally in 2015.

  9. That goes without saying, but that is what this site is for, and it is useful to gather opinions on the interesting seats even as far out as this. It’s of no consequence whatsoever whether Labour gets 56% or 59% in Merthyr Tydfil

  10. Havard, despite already being re-selected, has just announced he won’t be running in 2015 after all. He cites in a letter that the great constitutional battles he predicts will require a fresh MP, but his withdrawal is causing more news because he’s come out swinging against an all-women shortlist to choose his successor.

  11. He’s been a poor MP & won’t be missed. Labour’s majority is as low as it is partly because this perception is widely shared in the constituency. Blunt, but there you are.

  12. Always interesting hearing stuff like that. I concede I hadn’t heard of Havard at all before today.

  13. The results spouts all the usual cliches about “uncertainty” I have a slightly different view, since every commentator bleats about ~”uncertainty”….there isn’t that much more uncertainty than any other election 7 months’ out.; the four party political scene actually reduces uncertainty:..a tory majority is almost impossible. a large labour majority is almost impossible. I would argue that the range of possiblities is much narrower than in, say, 1987, where you would not have seen a 100 conservative majority 7 months out…

  14. That’s a bit unfair on me James, especially when you consider I posted that last December for God’s sake.

  15. seems a little harsh from James Peel, I admit. He clearly hadn’t seen the date!

    I agree with him, however, that there are, with 7 months to go, definitive things we can say about the 2015 election, and that the parameters of outcomes seems much smaller than in many past election.

  16. Open shortlist for Labour selection agreed by NEC

  17. Caerphilly Deputy Leader Gerald Jones selected by Labour. The ward he represents on Caerphilly council is in this seat

  18. Given the collapse in Lib Dem vote share predicted by Ashcroft Polls in many seats where they have made a lucky advance, I can predict there will be a heavy swing from Lib Dem back to Labour, perhaps even greater than the 16.9% swing the Lib Dems managed here in 2010. I also think Plaid Cymru may get second place again, just about:

    Lab 60
    Plaid Cymru 10
    Lib Dem 10
    UKIP 10
    Con 5
    Green 2
    Others 3

    A Green presence can depress Labour and PC’s vote share at least a little bit…

  19. I have heard that UKIP will be throwing a lot of their Welsh resources at this seat, so they may well be second.

  20. Probably, Iain-and UKIP did well here in European elections last year, on that note.

  21. Labour hold. 12,000 majority

  22. Gurnos ward by-election, 26.07.18:

    Independent 375
    Labour 368
    Ind 144
    Conservative 32

    Independent Gain from Labour

    27% Turnout

    This ward is amongst the poorest 25 in England & Wales.

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