Mayor of London

2016 Election
Result

TBC

Candidates
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ZAC GOLDSMITH (Conservative) Born 1975, Westminster, son of Sir Jimmy Goldsmith, the founder of the Referendum party. Educated at Eton, where he was expelled for posession of cannabis. Former Environmental activist and editor of The Ecologist. MP for Richmond Park since 2010.
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SADIQ KHAN (Labour) Born 1970, London. Educated at Ernest Bevin School. Former Solicitor specialising in Human Rights and former Chair of Liberty. Wandsworth councillor 1994-2006. MP for Tooting since 2005. PPS to Jack Straw 2007, government whip 2007-08, Under-Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government 2008-09, Minister of State for Transport 2009-10, Shadow Justice Secretary 2010-2015. Managed Ed Miliband`s successful leadership campaign in 2010.
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SIAN BERRY (Green) born 1974, Cheltenham. Educated at Pate’s Grammar School and Trinity College, Oxford. Former medical copywriter, now a sustainable transport campaigner. Principle Speaker of the Green party 2006-2007. Camden councillor since 2014. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 2005. Green party mayoral candidate 2008
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CAROLINE PIDGEON (Liberal Democrat) Born 1972. Educated at Thornden Secondary and the University of Wales Aberystwyth. Deputy leader of Southwark council 2002-2004. GLA londonwide member since 2008. Contested Dulwich and West Norwood 2001, Vauxhall 2010. Awarded an MBE in 2013 for public and political service.
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PETER WHITTLE (UKIP) Born 1961, Peckham. Educated at University of Kent. Journalist and founder of New Culture Forum. Contested London region 2014 European election, Eltham 2015.
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DAVID FURNESS (BNP) Computer programmer. Contested Ealing North 2010, Feltham and Heston 2011 by-election, London 2014 European election
GEORGE GALLOWAY (Respect) Born 1954, Dundee. Educated at Harris Academy. MP for Glasgow Hillhead 1987-1997, MP for Glasgow Kelvin 1997-2005, MP for Bethnal Green and Bow 2005-2010, MP for Bradford West 2012-2015. A flamboyant left-winger, talented orator and outspoken critic of Tony Blair and George W Bush, long involved in Palestinian and Arab causes. He opposed the 1991 Gulf war and travelled to Iraq several times, meeting both Saddam Hussein and Tariq Aziz and in 1998 founded a charity to campaign against sanctions on Iraq. He opposed the Iraq War and in 2003 was expelled from the Labour party for making comments encouraging British troops to refuse to obey illegal orders, he subsequently helped found the Respect party. He was elected in Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005 on a pledge to serve only one term, in 2010 he contested the neighbouring seat but lost. He returned again in the 2012 Bradford West by-election, winning on a huge swing but losing the seat at he following election.
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PAUL GOLDING (Britain First) Sevenoaks councillor 2009-2011. Contested Sevenoaks 2010 for the BNP, Wales 2014 European elections for Britain First
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LEE HARRIS (CISTA) Born South Africa. Owner of a headshop.
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SOPHIE WALKER (Womens Equality) Born 1971, Scotland. Educated at City University. Journalist
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JOHN ZYLINKSKI (Independent) Born 1951, Lewisham. Property developer.
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ANKIT LOVE (One Love) Educated at Bishop Cotton School and American Community School, Cobham. Artist and filmmaker

2012 Election
Result
FIRST ROUND
Boris Johnson (Conservative) 971931 44.0% (+0.8%)
Ken Livingstone (Labour) 889918 40.3% (+3.3%)
Jenny Jones (Green) 98913 4.5% (+1.3%)
Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat) 91774 4.2% (-5.6%)
Siobhan Benita (Independent) 83914 3.8% (n/a)
Lawrence Webb (Fresh Choice for London) 43274 2.0% (+1.1%)
Carlos Cortiglia (BNP) 28751 1.3% (-1.6%)
MAJORITY 82013 3.7% (-1.5%)
Turnout 38.1% (-7.2%)
SECOND ROUND
Boris Johnson (Conservative) 1054811 51.5% (-1.7%)
Ken Livingstone (Labour) 992273 48.5% (+1.7%)
MAJORITY 62538 3.0% (-3.4%)
Candidates
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Boris Johnson (Conservative) born 1964, New York, USA. Son of Stanley Johnson, former MEP, and brother of Jo Johnson, MP for Orpington. Educated at Eton and Oxford, a contemporary of David Cameron. Author, television presenter and journalist. Worked as a columnist on the Daily Telegraph and as editor of The Spectator. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, he has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and tendency to make gaffes. As shadow minister for arts under Michael Howard he survived being made to publically apologise to Liverpool over an editoral in the Spectator that accused them of wallowing in victimhood, but not the revelation (that he had previously described as "an inverted pyramid of piffle") that he had been conducting an affair with Petronella Wyatt. MP for Henley 2001-2008. Shadow minister for higher education 2005-2007. Mayor of London since 2008.
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Ken Livingstone (Labour) born 1945, Lambeth. Educated at Tulse Hill Comprehensive and then trained as a teacher. Former Lambeth and Camden councillor. GLC member for Norwood from 1973-1977. GLC member for Hackney North and Stoke Newington 1977-1981. GLC member for Paddington 1981-1986. Contested Parliamentary seat in Hampstead 1979. Contested leadership of the Labour group on the GLC in 1980, losing to Andrew McIntosh. The day after Labour's victory in the GLC elections of 1981 he successfully challenged McIntosh to become the leader of the GLC. Livingstone led a left-wing populist regime in County Hall with a tendency toward symbolic acts of defiance towards the Conservative government it faced across the Thames. Livingstone's policy of subsidised public transport fares was struck down as unlawful, he declared London a nuclear free zone and extended an official invitation to Gerry Adams at a time when he was banned from the mainland. Livingstone resigned as leader and from the GLC in 1984 to fight a by-election on the issue of opposing the abolition of the GLC. Livingstone won the by-election, but the GLC was abolished at the end of 1986. Elected as MP for Brent East 1987. He served for two years on the Labour party NEC, but wa largely a marginal figure as an MP, appearing on TV game shows and writing newspaper columns. Following the establishment of an elected London mayor Livingstone was keen to run and sought the Labour nomination, but was opposed by Tony Blair and lost Labour's electoral college vote to the former cabinet minister Frank Dobson. Livingstone subsequently ran as an Independent candidate and was expelled from the Labour party. Following his election as an independent mayor he was re-admitted to the Labour party in 2004 and re-elected as mayor in 2004. As mayor Livingstone has twice been investigated by the Standards Board of England, the first over allegations of a fight at a party, the second after he compared a Jewish reporter to a concentration camp guard. Livingstone was cleared of the first accusation, the second resulted in a four week suspension from the office, which was later overturned by the the High Court.
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Jenny Jones (Green) Born 1949, Brighton. Educated at UCL. Former financial controller and archaeologist. Southwark councillor 2006-2010. Londonwide assembly member since 2000. Deputy mayor of London 2003-2004. Contested Dulwich and West Norwood 2005, Camberwell and Peckham 2010.
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Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat) born 1958, Balham. Educated at Bec Grammar School and Oxford University. A former police officer, he served as Police Commander for the borough of Lambeth from 2000-2002 and Deputy Assistant Commissioner from 2003-2007. During his time in charge of policing in Lambeth he pursued a softly-softly approach to drug use, not arresting or charging people for cannabis possession, and became known as one of the most senior openly gay police officers.
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Siobhan Benita (Independent) born 1971, Wimbledon. Educated at the Ursuline High School and Warwick University. Former civil servant.
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Lawrence Webb (UKIP) UKIP party organiser and former electrician. Contested Hornchurch 2005, London assembly list 2008, Hornchurch and Upminster 2010.
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Carlos Cortiglia (BNP) Born Uruguay. Press officer and radio producer.
Comments - 716 Responses on “Mayor of London”
  1. “The fact 108,000 people were eligible to vote in this London mayor selections, implies that around 20% of the electorate in the leadership election live in London”

    It’s far far higher than that. Around half of Labour’s national membership lives in Greater London. Common sense dictates that there will be quite a few people who were interested to vote in the leadership election who didn’t have much interest in the mayoral race.

    Overall I tend to AndyJS’s view of this. Khan will motivate a strong muslim turnout but this will provoke a strong reaction against him too, not just from whites but probably from hindus, Sikhs and maybe some afro-caribbeans too. Sad to say it but selecting a muslim reinforces negative public perceptions of Labour and the Tory has an excellent chance of winning now. I think Jowell would have won the mayoralty at a canter.

  2. ”Some of the comments on LabourList are unbelievable. For example people saying there’s no point trying to win votes in the outer suburbs because they’re going to vote Tory anyway, Dont they realise that in a close election winning over a few centrist voters in the outer suburbs could make the difference between winning and losing?”

    Really? Wow! Unbelievable!

    Some party members have totally lost the plot!

    Even Livingstone understood that he had to appeal to the suburbs when he campaigned to be London’s Mayor.

    If Labour can’t even win in London next year surely it’s the beginning of the end for the party?

  3. One hundred and eight thousand people is a lot of potentially active Labour door knockers and deliverers, and money. This is 1500 people per constituency.

    With even a third of these doing anything, this will allow a formidable campaign in London. For a low turnout local election, get the vote out organisation is key.

    No doubt Jewell would have been an insider’s choice, competent and safe, but she could be seen as taking the mayoralty as a retirement benefit. Khan is younger and not connected with the managerial wing of the party and its former ministers. I think the Asian/Muslim factor would have been a disadvantage for him twenty years ago, but the sort of UKIP voter who will react to this has long ago left London for the home counties. Khan will present a modern face, like Sajid Javid does for the Conservatives.

    I don’t expect this is any easier for the Conservatives. If Goldsmith can captivate the suburbs, then he still has a decent chance, but London is generally a Labour voting City at present.

  4. Goldsmith could have been vulnerable in the likes of Bexley and Bromley because of his staunch environmentalism. Jowell could have exploited that and engineered a low turnout in these kind of areas, almost certainly giving her a comfortable victory. Against Khan, the Bexleys and Bromleys will bite their tongues and turn out in force for Goldsmith. How the white liberal professionals (“Hampstead vote”) and non-muslim Indians (“Ealing/Harrow vote”) will be crucial. I think the Tories have an excellent chance now especially if Corbyn turns out to be a shambles.

  5. ”Goldsmith could have been vulnerable in the likes of Bexley and Bromley because of his staunch environmentalism.”

    H.Hemmelig – Do you honestly think voters in Bexley and Bromley will be that knowledgeable of his views on the environment when it comes to voting in May?

    Goldsmith’s posh, handsome and rich so he’ll go down a storm in the outer (Greater) London areas like Bexley, Bromley. Barnet, Redbridge etc, etc.

  6. ““The fact 108,000 people were eligible to vote in this London mayor selections, implies that around 20% of the electorate in the leadership election live in London”

    It’s far far higher than that. Around half of Labour’s national membership lives in Greater London. Common sense dictates that there will be quite a few people who were interested to vote in the leadership election who didn’t have much interest in the mayoral race.”

    If 550,000 ish people are eligible to vote in the leadership election, and only 108,000 are eligible to vote in the London mayor selection, then surely that indicates only 20% of the eligible national leadership electorate live in Greater London.

    It’s very possible more of the eligible voters in Greater London are full members of the party rather than registered supporters, or affiliated members, than in the rest of the UK. This is evidenced by the size of many London CLPs even before the growth of the last 3 months.

  7. Yes, I misread what you wrote. The implication is that the £3 members are disproportionally outside London – slightly surprising but perhaps they’re all on university campuses.

  8. ”Against Khan, the Bexleys and Bromleys will bite their tongues and turn out in force for Goldsmith.”

    No they won’t bite their tounges at all. They’ll fall in love with Goldsmith. I expect at least a 60% vote for Goldsmith/Convesrtives in Bromley and Bexley in May 2016.

  9. I expect the same but only because they don’t want a left-wing Muslim mayor. Of course they will know about Goldsmith’s environmentalism, if only because UKIP (quite strong in both boroughs) will publicise it relentlessly, as Jowell would have done in a less ouvert way.

  10. Khan may not do well in the Bexley’s and Bromley’s though he may do well in Harrow, Redbridge and even some parts of Kingston as they all have quite substantial Islamic populations.

  11. “One hundred and eight thousand people is a lot of potentially active Labour door knockers and deliverers, and money. This is 1500 people per constituency.

    With even a third of these doing anything, this will allow a formidable campaign in London. For a low turnout local election, get the vote out organisation is key.”

    The only problem with this argument is that according to all reports Labour had floods of activists on the streets of London on election day and they had a very bad result compared to what most people were expecting. True, they won four seats from the Tories but three of them were with majorities of less than 600 votes and the other was by 1,086 in Enfield North.

  12. I can certainly see him do well in Redbridge and possibly Enfield. Maybe even Croydon and Merton. Not sure about Harrow though. I think the Hindu community might swing it for Zac Goldsmith. I also think Ealing and Hounslow could be dicey for Khan.

  13. Khan will do very well in Merton. West Barnes, Cannon Hill and Lower Morden wards are all going demographically in Labours direction. Croydon will be a mixed bag. Sutton will wholly vote Zac Goldsmith as will Richmond.

  14. @SurreyPolitics well Trinity and Dundonald are going the other way. Kahn will probably carry Merton borough but Wimbledon proper will vote heavily for Goldsmith which will keep the margin reasonably close. I can certainly see him doing badly in Harrow and Barnet but Enfield’s Labour trend seems unstoppable.

    I’ll also be interested to see how close the Goldsmith can run Kahn in some of those Lambeth and Southwark wards near the Thames where I suspect there is an underlying Tory trend and the ‘Wandsworth effect’ may be starting to bleed east. At the general election Vauxhall actually swung Tory (Bermondsey is complicated by the Lib Dem factor). Boris won Surrey Docks and Riverside convincingly and was within 10% in many of the others. Keeping Kahn’s margins down in wards like these ones (and perhaps winning a few of them) will be key to a Goldsmith victory.

  15. Given that Livingstone lost the last Mayoral election narrowly, which some attributed to the Jewish vote, the choice of Khan as Labour candidate is likely to antagonise this section of the electorate. Of interest was the discrepancy between the support for Labour in the Camden/Barnet seat on the GLA, which Labour won, compared to the substantial support for Johnson over Livingstone in the same constituency area. These 2 boroughs have some of the highest number of Jews (as % of the total population) in the UK (Barnet 15.5%, Camden 5%). However, most Jews tend to be hostile to those perceived as anti-Zionist, as they will be to Corbyn (should he become Labour leader).

  16. Given that Livingstone lost the last Mayoral election narrowly, which some attributed to the Jewish vote, the choice of Khan as Labour candidate is likely to antagonise this section of the electorate. Of interest was the discrepancy between the support for Labour in the Camden/Barnet seat on the GLA, which Labour won, compared to the substantial support for Johnson over Livingstone in the same constituency area. These 2 boroughs have some of the highest number of Jews (as % of the total population) in the UK (Barnet 15.5%, Camden 5%).

  17. I’ve already seen posts on Twitter along the lines of “I’m not voting for a Muslim Mayor”! That’s even before ultra-lefties Corbyn and Watson are elected leader and deputy leader (respectively)!

    Labour are well and truly stuffed!

  18. I wonder if even conservative Muslims will support him, especially if Galloway runs for mayor like he has suggested. He courts that section of the Muslim vote and he’s not afraid to tar Muslim opponents as seen in Bradford in 2012 and this year.

    Worth pointing out that Khan voted in favour of same-sex marriage. Something which will be in the minds of voters in Tower Hamlets, etc.

  19. “That’s even before ultra-lefties Corbyn and Watson are elected leader and deputy leader”

    Surprised you know so little history of the party you’re a member of….Watson is from the traditional right of the party and as a young man was part of the trade union fightback against the left in the 80s.

  20. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-34276702

    In other news the Lib Dems have selected their mayoral candidate.

  21. Is there a deposit for London mayor?

  22. http://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-candidate/nominations

    “a deposit of £10,000, which is returned if you get more than five per cent of first choice votes cast in the election for Mayor”

  23. UKIP assembly list

    1. Peter Whittle (who will be the Mayoral candidate)
    2. David Kurten
    3. Suzanne Evans
    4. Lawrence Webb
    5. Peter Harris
    6. Mike Read
    7. Neville Watson
    8. Piers Wauchope
    9. Anne Marie Waters
    10. Afzal Akram
    11. Elizabeth Jones

    LibDem Assembly list

    1. Caroline Pidgeon AM
    2. Emily Davey (wife of the former MP)
    3. Merlene Emerson
    4. Rob Blackie
    5. Stephen Knight AM (bye bye)
    6. Zack Polanski
    7. Duwayne Brooks
    8.Dawn Barnes
    9. Annabel Mullin
    10. Marisha Ray
    11. Adrian Hyyrlainen-Trett.

  24. Green list

    1. Sian Berry
    2. Caroline Russell
    3. Jonathan Bartley
    4. Noel Lynch
    5. Shahrar Ali
    6. Rashid Nix
    7. Tom Chance
    8. Benali Hamdache
    9. Dee Searle
    10. Andrea Carey-Fuller
    11. Rosemary Warrington

    Incumbent AMs Jenny Jones and Darren Johnson are retiring.

  25. “@SurreyPolitics well Trinity and Dundonald are going the other way. Kahn will probably carry Merton borough but Wimbledon proper will vote heavily for Goldsmith which will keep the margin reasonably close. I can certainly see him doing badly in Harrow and Barnet but Enfield’s Labour trend seems unstoppable.” I agree with you that Wimbledon proper has trended more Conservative and those ultra rich parts will mean the parliamentary seat will always be blue, however the Morden parts of seat are demographically trending against them and is becoming increasingly BAME particularly in Cannon Hill and Merton Park Wards and also the parts of Abbey and Raynes Park (which is now more marginal than Dundonald) that are south of the A238. Which means that Khan will easily carry Merton in the mayorals.

  26. Thanks for posting the Lib Dem list, Andrea. Fascinating.
    I am surprised to see Stephen Knight demoted to number 5. Or perhaps I shouldn’t be. Former leader of Kingston council, who lost control to the Tories in 2014. Just last week, his wife Julie a fellow councillor defected to Labour, rather unhelpfully timed following Tim Farron’s announcement that defections were all about to happen the other way.
    http://www.richmondandtwickenhamtimes.co.uk/news/13775964.BREAKING__Teddington_councillor_defects_from_Lib_Dems_to_Jeremy_Corbyn_s_Labour/?ref=fbshr

    Looking at the list of Assembly members, it appears Victoria Borwick has very quietly resigned from the London Assembly list. I certainly didn’t hear about it, given what a publicity junkie she is. She has been replaced by Kemi Badenoch. I would not be surprised if she was forced to resign. She’s been geting a lot of bad press lately for being a ‘triple dipper’ on the taxpayer.

  27. Conservative selections for GLA constituencies where their AM is standing down

    Bexley and Bromley: Gareth Bacon AM (elected from the London wide list in 2012)

    Havering and Redbridge: Keith Price (Redbridge council leader 2009-14) ** Shaun Bailey tried selection here

    West Central: Tony Devenish (Westminster Cllr)

    Merton and Wandsworth: David Dean (Merton Cllr)

    Labour selections where their AMs are retiring

    Lambeth and Southwark: Florence Nosegbe (Lambeth Cllr)

    City and East: Unmesh Desai (Newham Cllr)

  28. I think Florence Nosegbe was also a candidate for Labour’s NEC. From what gather she’s connected to Progress.

  29. Poll today from YouGov asking best Mayor:

    Khan: 29%
    Zac: 28%

  30. Conservative London wide list

    1. Kemi Badenoch AM
    2. Andrew Boff AM
    3. Shaun Bailey
    4. Susan Hall
    5. Amandeep Bhogal
    6. Joanne Labane
    7. Antonia Cox
    8. Joy Morrissey
    9. Timothy Barnes
    10. Gregory Stafford
    11. Kishan Devani
    12. Jonathan Cope

  31. Labour list

    1. Fiona Twycross AM
    2. Tom Copley AM
    3. Nicky Gavron AM
    4. Murad Qureshi AM
    5. Alison Moore
    6. Preston Tabois
    7. Feryal Demirci
    8. Mike Katz
    9. Emily Brothers
    10. Bevan Powell
    11. Lisa Homan

    So first term AMs Twycross and Copley get top positions over veteran Gavron and Qureshi.

    Ranking done by Regional Board rather than membership ballot IIRC

  32. Apparently YouGov have Sadiq 53 Zac 47

  33. I’m just thinking ahead to the London Assembly election.

    The last election was held in 2012. Of the 25 seats LAB won 12, CON 9 and the Greens and LDs two each.

    In May I think the CONs have a good chance to make gains in the constituency seats. They should have a good shout at winning back Barnet and Camden, and Ealing and Hillingdon (E&H was more marginal in 2012, but looking at the GE results and the boundaries I’d actually say B&C is just as likely a gain). On the other hand LAB will be targeting Havering and Redbridge, where demographically things seem to be shifting in their favour. So my prediction is that the Tories will get 7 constituency seats (+1) and Labour 7 (-1).

    Given the GE result and that we are going to be on a Mayoral election turnout I’d suggest the vote share will be around LAB 40 CON 35 UKIP 10 LD 8 GRN 5 OTH 2. That would imply the top-up seats going approximately LAB 3 (-1), CON 2 (-1), UKIP 3 (+3), LD 2 (-), GRN 1 (-1).

    So overall I’m predicting the Assembly will be LAB 10 (-2), CON 9 (-), UKIP 3 (+3), LD 2 (-), GRN 1 (-1). So not much change, and the big story being UKIP returning to London politics after not featuring in the last two Assemblies (they had two AMs 2004-08, though both of them defected during the term).

  34. I think the Greens will poll much higher than 5% in the London Assembly elections of 2016, especially given that there is proportional representation involved! We achieved 8.5% in 2012, and we are likely to improve on this even if UKIP re-enters the Assembly.

  35. It is hard to say how the Greens will do. There is some polling evidence Corbyn is hurting them, and I expect this to continue up to May. I certainly don’t think they’ll get a third seat, though holding two is obviously possible.

  36. I would guess a very marginal drop for the Greens maybe back down to whre they were in 08 (not more than 1%) although I think they’re still more likely to win 2 seats than the LDs who will struggle more.

    I’m not sure about UKIP although they should get 2 AMs on the back of their support in Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Sutton and Hillingdon

    So something like Lab 10/11 Con 9, UKIP 2/3, Grn 2 LD 1

    and possibly Khan squeaking it by 3% or so over Goldsmith.

  37. @A Brown

    Don’t disagree with much of that. Yes, UKIP’s support in some parts of outer London will get them in. I’ve put them down for 3 but it could be 2 as they’ll be handicapped by having selected a poor mayoral candidate (internal UKIP politics caused them to go with the obscure Peter Whittle over Suzanne Evans).

  38. The Greens should be fine come May 2016. Can’t see us losing two seats, but can’t see us making any gains. Would have thought we will stick around 8-9% on the top up. UKIP will win at least one seat next year, only just missed out in 2012 even on a bad day next year, UKIP will still make 5%. Hard to say how well the Lib Dems will do. Third to fifth will be close…

  39. The Greens will most likely outpoll the Lib Dems in the mayoral election just as they did in 2012. As far as AMs, they could gain an extra seat on a very good day (with the Lib Dems losing), but with the Corbyn factor a certain demographic of London voters interested by the Greens could instead back what they see as the most left wing Labour party in years.

  40. @Neil

    I think the Corbyn factor is very damaging for the Greens. Another problem is that in recent years I think they’ve alienated more centrist protest voters who quite like the idea of a cleaner environment by placing themselves firmly on the left (in reality they were always on the left, of course, but I’m not sure many voters knew that).

    The LDs were already doing badly in 2012 so I’m not sure they’ll do too much worse in the Assembly election. At the GE they got 7.7% of the London vote, in 2012 they got 6.8% in the Assembly. I imagine they’ll be around that level again. I think they’ll tank in the mayoral election though, where I expect fresher independents will come ahead of Caroline Pidgeon.

  41. Neil,… you just contradicted yourself there… The Corbyn factor is totally undermining for Green support and probably more so in London than anywhere else.

    Care to look at most by-election results since May and the Greens have lost 40-50% of their votes from the last comparative council result where they were standing.

    Last week’s by-election for Brent LB, Kensal Green- 17th December 2015

    Labour 931 [53.4%; -1%]
    LD Sarah Dickson 417 [23.9%; +8.7%]
    Conservative 255 [14.6%; +2.8%]
    Green 102 [5.9%; -12.7%]
    UKIP 38 [2.2%; +2.2%]
    Majority: 514
    Labour Hold
    Percentage change since 2014

  42. “At the GE they got 7.7% of the London vote, in 2012 they got 6.8% in the Assembly. I imagine they’ll be around that level again.”

    But remember that the Lib Dems get bucketloads of tactical votes in general elections in Carshalton, Sutton, Kingston, Twickenham, Bermondsey and Hornsey which simply don’t appear in assembly elections. If you adjust for that, the Lib Dem performance in 2015 was definitely worse than 2012. I think it’s quite plausible that they will be down at 5-6% next year.

  43. I think how seats the Greens get depends on who our voters were in 2012 relative to 2015. It really depends upon whether the increase in national polling over the last 2 years has been from people who voted Green in elections such as the London Assembly and therefore we won’t advance in the polls here, or have we attracted new voters who would have never considered us before and we can consequently increase our vote. Personally, I think it’s a bit of both and we will remain static in vote share and number of seats, with the Liberal Democrats likely to lose their seats while UKIP gains 2 seats.

  44. @HH

    That is a fair point about tactical voting boosting the LD GE performance. They certainly face a tough fight to keep two seats.

  45. UKIP almost always underperform expectations in London. Even in boroughs like Bromley and Havering their natural support is fast eroding due to demographic changes, not just relating to race but also the type of white people living in outer London. UKIP should get one seat but I wouldn’t put any money on them exceeding that.

    It will be interesting to see what the “Corbyn effect” is on how London votes. Corbyn will certainly boost the Labour vote in the likes of Hackney, Islington and Lambeth but he may well be a drag on the Labour vote in parts of outer London. I think the Greens will maintain a respectable performance and keep their seats. Remember the constituency and list votes are separate so we may see a lot of ticket-splitting by Labour voters who are sympathetic to the Greens.

    I cannot see why people are still so optimistic that Goldsmith will become Mayor. The evidence at present is pretty overwhelming that it will be Khan.

  46. I’d be surprised if the Lib Dems don’t lose votes from 2012. I think it plausible they fail to get to 5%, but will probably scrape it. My prediction for them is 5.5-6% and 5th place.

    UKIP should make 6 or 7%.

  47. Greens I suspect will be down but not massively. About 7.5% and 3Rd place.

  48. I think they are very plausible predictions.

    As for the Tories I think they’ll increase their vote in the assembly seats but lose the mayoralty.

  49. Tower Hamlets postal ballots have just come in. Turnout of 250%.

  50. Hemmy, you underestimate the hostility towards the prospect of a muslim mayor, one who wears his faith on his sleeve and uses it as virtually his only asset.

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