Mayor of London

2016 Election
Result

TBC

Candidates
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ZAC GOLDSMITH (Conservative) Born 1975, Westminster, son of Sir Jimmy Goldsmith, the founder of the Referendum party. Educated at Eton, where he was expelled for posession of cannabis. Former Environmental activist and editor of The Ecologist. MP for Richmond Park since 2010.
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SADIQ KHAN (Labour) Born 1970, London. Educated at Ernest Bevin School. Former Solicitor specialising in Human Rights and former Chair of Liberty. Wandsworth councillor 1994-2006. MP for Tooting since 2005. PPS to Jack Straw 2007, government whip 2007-08, Under-Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government 2008-09, Minister of State for Transport 2009-10, Shadow Justice Secretary 2010-2015. Managed Ed Miliband`s successful leadership campaign in 2010.
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SIAN BERRY (Green) born 1974, Cheltenham. Educated at Pate’s Grammar School and Trinity College, Oxford. Former medical copywriter, now a sustainable transport campaigner. Principle Speaker of the Green party 2006-2007. Camden councillor since 2014. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 2005. Green party mayoral candidate 2008
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CAROLINE PIDGEON (Liberal Democrat) Born 1972. Educated at Thornden Secondary and the University of Wales Aberystwyth. Deputy leader of Southwark council 2002-2004. GLA londonwide member since 2008. Contested Dulwich and West Norwood 2001, Vauxhall 2010. Awarded an MBE in 2013 for public and political service.
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PETER WHITTLE (UKIP) Born 1961, Peckham. Educated at University of Kent. Journalist and founder of New Culture Forum. Contested London region 2014 European election, Eltham 2015.
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DAVID FURNESS (BNP) Computer programmer. Contested Ealing North 2010, Feltham and Heston 2011 by-election, London 2014 European election
GEORGE GALLOWAY (Respect) Born 1954, Dundee. Educated at Harris Academy. MP for Glasgow Hillhead 1987-1997, MP for Glasgow Kelvin 1997-2005, MP for Bethnal Green and Bow 2005-2010, MP for Bradford West 2012-2015. A flamboyant left-winger, talented orator and outspoken critic of Tony Blair and George W Bush, long involved in Palestinian and Arab causes. He opposed the 1991 Gulf war and travelled to Iraq several times, meeting both Saddam Hussein and Tariq Aziz and in 1998 founded a charity to campaign against sanctions on Iraq. He opposed the Iraq War and in 2003 was expelled from the Labour party for making comments encouraging British troops to refuse to obey illegal orders, he subsequently helped found the Respect party. He was elected in Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005 on a pledge to serve only one term, in 2010 he contested the neighbouring seat but lost. He returned again in the 2012 Bradford West by-election, winning on a huge swing but losing the seat at he following election.
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PAUL GOLDING (Britain First) Sevenoaks councillor 2009-2011. Contested Sevenoaks 2010 for the BNP, Wales 2014 European elections for Britain First
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LEE HARRIS (CISTA) Born South Africa. Owner of a headshop.
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SOPHIE WALKER (Womens Equality) Born 1971, Scotland. Educated at City University. Journalist
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JOHN ZYLINKSKI (Independent) Born 1951, Lewisham. Property developer.
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ANKIT LOVE (One Love) Educated at Bishop Cotton School and American Community School, Cobham. Artist and filmmaker

2012 Election
Result
FIRST ROUND
Boris Johnson (Conservative) 971931 44.0% (+0.8%)
Ken Livingstone (Labour) 889918 40.3% (+3.3%)
Jenny Jones (Green) 98913 4.5% (+1.3%)
Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat) 91774 4.2% (-5.6%)
Siobhan Benita (Independent) 83914 3.8% (n/a)
Lawrence Webb (Fresh Choice for London) 43274 2.0% (+1.1%)
Carlos Cortiglia (BNP) 28751 1.3% (-1.6%)
MAJORITY 82013 3.7% (-1.5%)
Turnout 38.1% (-7.2%)
SECOND ROUND
Boris Johnson (Conservative) 1054811 51.5% (-1.7%)
Ken Livingstone (Labour) 992273 48.5% (+1.7%)
MAJORITY 62538 3.0% (-3.4%)
Candidates
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Boris Johnson (Conservative) born 1964, New York, USA. Son of Stanley Johnson, former MEP, and brother of Jo Johnson, MP for Orpington. Educated at Eton and Oxford, a contemporary of David Cameron. Author, television presenter and journalist. Worked as a columnist on the Daily Telegraph and as editor of The Spectator. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, he has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and tendency to make gaffes. As shadow minister for arts under Michael Howard he survived being made to publically apologise to Liverpool over an editoral in the Spectator that accused them of wallowing in victimhood, but not the revelation (that he had previously described as "an inverted pyramid of piffle") that he had been conducting an affair with Petronella Wyatt. MP for Henley 2001-2008. Shadow minister for higher education 2005-2007. Mayor of London since 2008.
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Ken Livingstone (Labour) born 1945, Lambeth. Educated at Tulse Hill Comprehensive and then trained as a teacher. Former Lambeth and Camden councillor. GLC member for Norwood from 1973-1977. GLC member for Hackney North and Stoke Newington 1977-1981. GLC member for Paddington 1981-1986. Contested Parliamentary seat in Hampstead 1979. Contested leadership of the Labour group on the GLC in 1980, losing to Andrew McIntosh. The day after Labour's victory in the GLC elections of 1981 he successfully challenged McIntosh to become the leader of the GLC. Livingstone led a left-wing populist regime in County Hall with a tendency toward symbolic acts of defiance towards the Conservative government it faced across the Thames. Livingstone's policy of subsidised public transport fares was struck down as unlawful, he declared London a nuclear free zone and extended an official invitation to Gerry Adams at a time when he was banned from the mainland. Livingstone resigned as leader and from the GLC in 1984 to fight a by-election on the issue of opposing the abolition of the GLC. Livingstone won the by-election, but the GLC was abolished at the end of 1986. Elected as MP for Brent East 1987. He served for two years on the Labour party NEC, but wa largely a marginal figure as an MP, appearing on TV game shows and writing newspaper columns. Following the establishment of an elected London mayor Livingstone was keen to run and sought the Labour nomination, but was opposed by Tony Blair and lost Labour's electoral college vote to the former cabinet minister Frank Dobson. Livingstone subsequently ran as an Independent candidate and was expelled from the Labour party. Following his election as an independent mayor he was re-admitted to the Labour party in 2004 and re-elected as mayor in 2004. As mayor Livingstone has twice been investigated by the Standards Board of England, the first over allegations of a fight at a party, the second after he compared a Jewish reporter to a concentration camp guard. Livingstone was cleared of the first accusation, the second resulted in a four week suspension from the office, which was later overturned by the the High Court.
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Jenny Jones (Green) Born 1949, Brighton. Educated at UCL. Former financial controller and archaeologist. Southwark councillor 2006-2010. Londonwide assembly member since 2000. Deputy mayor of London 2003-2004. Contested Dulwich and West Norwood 2005, Camberwell and Peckham 2010.
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Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat) born 1958, Balham. Educated at Bec Grammar School and Oxford University. A former police officer, he served as Police Commander for the borough of Lambeth from 2000-2002 and Deputy Assistant Commissioner from 2003-2007. During his time in charge of policing in Lambeth he pursued a softly-softly approach to drug use, not arresting or charging people for cannabis possession, and became known as one of the most senior openly gay police officers.
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Siobhan Benita (Independent) born 1971, Wimbledon. Educated at the Ursuline High School and Warwick University. Former civil servant.
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Lawrence Webb (UKIP) UKIP party organiser and former electrician. Contested Hornchurch 2005, London assembly list 2008, Hornchurch and Upminster 2010.
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Carlos Cortiglia (BNP) Born Uruguay. Press officer and radio producer.
Comments - 716 Responses on “Mayor of London”
  1. Sorry..4 /14 he’s in front in HAVERING too.

  2. Hawthorn

    Could also be that they are counting the Hounslow votes first. But very ominous for the Tories. Looks like, as usual, London is the only place my own predictions were close.

  3. We are close to having the result called – I’m referring to when you can no longer have money on a selection: KHAN down to 1.01 on BETFAIR.

  4. Looking at London Elects. Astounded that Labour are (so far) doing so well in the South West constituency. Leading both GLA and mayoral races. Hounslow borough is literally their primary area of strength.

    Barnet and Camden could return Andrew Dismore to the GLA, but Goldsmith might carry the mayoral vote narrowly.

  5. Things looking very close in Croydon and Sutton now.

  6. Presumably with the London Elects site, we have no idea where the votes that have already been counted are from in each seat. There’s no particular reason to believe that the votes counted so far are a representative sample.

  7. Not accurately representative but a very good approximation. KHAN will almost certainly achieve 42- 45% 1st preferences.

  8. It’s probably fine for London as a whole. I think it’s a stretch to take the results for a single seat too seriously at this stage, especially if that sea is relatively polarised.

  9. Havering & Redbridge GLA contest is literally on a knife edge at the moment. If Labour vote in Ilford is big and UKIP eats into Conservative vote enough in e.g. Hornchurch, Labour might take Assembly seat.

    Goldsmith will likely carry the mayoral in H&R.

  10. Some interesting divergence in Barnet and Camden on London Elects so far. Nice lead for Goldsmith, but looking like Dismore might edge the GLA seat. Havering and Redbridge also looking very marginal indeed at Assembly level but Zac looking like carrying it in the mayoral.

  11. Oh, and Merton and Wandsworth looking like a Labour gain. That one wasn’t on my radar at all, though I suppose Sadiq representing a seat in Wandsworth may have helped him and Labour.

  12. It looks like the polls were pretty accurate for the London mayoral race at least.

  13. It’s official – KHAN win as no he is longer available to back BETFAIR. ; )

  14. @Tristan

    Yes. Actually not a bad night for polling all round. Welsh polls have previously been very wonky (overstating LAB, understating CON) but the result this time is very close to that implied by YouGov. Maybe the methodological changes they’ve made are having some effect, though it is impossible to be certain of that until they’re tested at a GE. Scotland was a bit out – underestimating both LAB and CON somewhat – but they were very good on predicting LAB a touch ahead of CON on constituencies, CON ahead on list.

    Reports from the Barnet and Camden count suggest that after 54% counted it’s Dismore 42%, Thomas 40%. Can’t definitively say Dismore will take it on that basis – rather depends which wards they’ve counted.

  15. Jack S- yes, the pollsters have redeemed themselves somewhat.

  16. Is Khan going to continue serving as MP for Tooting or is he standing down if/when he wins?

    If there’s a by-election I wonder how things will turn out. Labour didn’t perform particularly well in the 2015 GE there and with gentrification in parts of the seat is there a risk?

  17. …Risk of a loss?

  18. Labour have slipped back in SW and C&S for GLA.

    Slight Tory lead in H&R GLA seat.

  19. Neil

    Simon is shown to be correct as C&S and SW are polarised.

    In the latter I guess they counted Hounslow first.

  20. Dismore looks to be pulling a few % clear after 66% counted in B&C. But of course that could change if they haven’t yet fed some strong Tory wards in.

  21. Surely the Tories will petition for a re-run in Barnet if Dismore narrowly holds

  22. I doubt it very much. Opportunites to vote was given to thefew who missed out at 7-8am

  23. Khan is ahead by 44% to 35% with 80% of the first preference votes counted.

    John Curtice has said that it looks like a 2nd round win by about 57:43. If so, this would be right in line with the Opinion Polls – and indeed my own prediction of a 12-15 point win for Khan.

  24. Well that was hardly a very original prediction was it, more than half the site expected the same. It was obvious Khan would win easily. More challenging was my prediction that Goldsmith would lose more heavily than Steve Norris, still touch and go on that one.

  25. Turnout, contrary to expectations and initial reports yesterday, appears to be up.

  26. @ H Hemmelig

    No, we had Jack Shelton and Maxim P-R going for 55:45, Deepthroat 53:47, Christian going for a Goldsmith win (!) and Hawthorn suggesting 58:42 to Khan. There was a lot of comment here to the effect that Goldsmith would outperform the Opinion Polls, but I’d acknowledge that you, Tory and to an extent Jack Sheldon suggested otherwise.

    Besides, Norris lost by 55.4 to 44.6% in 2004, so by 11 points. My prediction for Khan was a larger 12-15 margin.

  27. What did Norris lose by in 2000?

  28. Good point!

    It was 57.9% to 42.1% in the 2nd Round in 2000, so 15.8 points.

    If Khan achieves that in the 2nd Round this time, then you and Hawthorn can claim the ‘prize’ for best prediction.

  29. Merton & Wandsworth GLA seat is gained by Labour

    Leonie Cooper (Lab) 77,340 (41.71%, +5.17%)
    David Dean (C) 73,039 (39.39%, -3.75%)
    Esther Obiri-Darko (Green) 14,682 (7.92%, +0.44%)
    Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett (LD) 10,732 (5.79%, -2.09%)
    Elizabeth Jones (UKIP) 8,478 (4.57%, +2.11%)
    Thamilini Kulendran (Ind) 1,142 (0.62%, -0.99%)

    Lab maj 4,301 (2.32%)

  30. Assembly results looking dreadful for the Tories so far… 2012 was very bad, further swing away here. First time LAB have won Merton and Wandsworth.

  31. MW was “won” by Labour in 1997 and 2001 Generals so not completely without precedent.

    Labour is incredibly strong in Mitcham plus of course Khan factor in Tooting.

  32. Implies Labour were probably ahead in Battersea

  33. Goldsmith only got 52% on first preferences in Bexley & Bromley, in 2012 Boris was not far off 70%. As I’ve been saying all along, Goldsmith’s support in Tory heartlands was lacklustre.

  34. I guess a lot of Tories in M&W are very pro-remain…or just generally not enthused by Zak’s campaign. Bit of a surprise though.

  35. Yep the boy done better than I thought he would. I said 40-36 first rnd victory to KHAN.

    It’s a much needed filippo for pollsters.

  36. Turnout said to be high, maybe 43: – 44%.

    I got something accurate then as I thought their line that LADBROKES had at 35.5% turnout was way too low. I also had KHAN at 4/% back in early November.

    Maybe the ‘high’ turnout here will be a presage for high turnout in the REFERENDUM??

  37. Con hold GLA Havering & Redbridge seat

    Keith Prince (C) 64,483 (37.70%, +0.11%)
    Ivana Bartoletti (Lab) 63,045 (36.86%, +2.02%)
    Lawrence Webb (UKIP) 26,788 (15.66%, +8.98%)
    Lee Burkwood (Green) 9,617 (5.62%, +1.95%)
    Ian Sanderson (LD) 7,105 (4.15%, -0.39%)

  38. “Goldsmith only got 52% on first preferences in Bexley & Bromley, in 2012 Boris was not far off 70%. As I’ve been saying all along, Goldsmith’s support in Tory heartlands was lacklustre.”

    @H.Hemmelig

    As you are aware, I know Bromley and Bexley well. That’s a very poor result for Goldsmith considering his opponent, the current leader of the Labour Party and the awful fortnight Labour had before this election.

  39. Some of the later Assembly constituency results not quite as bad for the Tories… now looks like little change from the bad result in 2012.

  40. Labour’s share has been slightly underestimated by the polling companies; is this a sign that the methodology changes were a bit too kneejerk?

    More importantly; pleased to see Sian consolidate 3rd place. Shows that Green Party would and should be the 3rd party in London, if there was a fair voting system in locals & Westminster elections.

  41. “Labour’s share has been slightly underestimated by the polling companies….”

    No it hasn’t.

    The final polls had Khan on 45%,45%, and 43%, in the 1st Round, and he’s currently on 43%.

    They showed him between 56% and 57% in the second round, so we’ll soon see how accurate that was.

  42. JAMES E- yes, I saw the 57-43 2nd round prediction, which is a bit more pro labour than most of the polls.

  43. Labour’s national projected share is 31% so absolutely no progress since the general election. London becoming more and more out of touch with the rest of the country in terms of electoral politics.

  44. Round 1 London Mayor voting is

    Labour 44.2% (+0.3 since May 2015 GE)
    Con 35.0% (+0.1)

    So almost the same as in the General Election 2015.
    So basically, the Tories just haven’t done any better than the standard London voting pattern.
    No better, no worse….

  45. In the rest of the country there has been a 3%-ish CON to LAB swing from 2015. So Zac may actually, strange as it seems in the context of being thrashed, have outperformed his party.

  46. @ Andy JS

    As Jack says, the English council elections do show a swing from Con to Lab.

    Besides, can an area which votes (or swings) differently to the rest of the UK really be described as “out of touch” simply for doing so? As well as London – which has of course clearly moved more in Labour’s direction – couldn’t the same be said of Essex, or of Scotland.

  47. Commentators who are fixated with Goldsmith’s campaign (and I am not offering any views on that either way) haven’t quite woken up to the fact that London is now a Labour city in most circumstances. There is little that is unusual about this result. If people think the Conservatives had a poor night here they are going to have get used to poor nights because that is the way London is going.

  48. Yes I think a lot of people assume London’s natural state is 40pc each.
    We do need to look at how we win more support outside the core vote though to avoid falling further behind gradually though.

  49. TORY – completely right. London have only had one tory mayor, and only “The Boris Factor” put him there.

  50. One Tory Mayor in two elections out of 5.
    I suspect in 2008 in particular, there was rather more to it than the above post.

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