Mayor of London

2016 Election
Result

TBC

Candidates
portrait
ZAC GOLDSMITH (Conservative) Born 1975, Westminster, son of Sir Jimmy Goldsmith, the founder of the Referendum party. Educated at Eton, where he was expelled for posession of cannabis. Former Environmental activist and editor of The Ecologist. MP for Richmond Park since 2010.
portrait
SADIQ KHAN (Labour) Born 1970, London. Educated at Ernest Bevin School. Former Solicitor specialising in Human Rights and former Chair of Liberty. Wandsworth councillor 1994-2006. MP for Tooting since 2005. PPS to Jack Straw 2007, government whip 2007-08, Under-Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government 2008-09, Minister of State for Transport 2009-10, Shadow Justice Secretary 2010-2015. Managed Ed Miliband`s successful leadership campaign in 2010.
portrait
SIAN BERRY (Green) born 1974, Cheltenham. Educated at Pate’s Grammar School and Trinity College, Oxford. Former medical copywriter, now a sustainable transport campaigner. Principle Speaker of the Green party 2006-2007. Camden councillor since 2014. Contested Hampstead and Highgate 2005. Green party mayoral candidate 2008
portrait
CAROLINE PIDGEON (Liberal Democrat) Born 1972. Educated at Thornden Secondary and the University of Wales Aberystwyth. Deputy leader of Southwark council 2002-2004. GLA londonwide member since 2008. Contested Dulwich and West Norwood 2001, Vauxhall 2010. Awarded an MBE in 2013 for public and political service.
portrait
PETER WHITTLE (UKIP) Born 1961, Peckham. Educated at University of Kent. Journalist and founder of New Culture Forum. Contested London region 2014 European election, Eltham 2015.
portrait
DAVID FURNESS (BNP) Computer programmer. Contested Ealing North 2010, Feltham and Heston 2011 by-election, London 2014 European election
GEORGE GALLOWAY (Respect) Born 1954, Dundee. Educated at Harris Academy. MP for Glasgow Hillhead 1987-1997, MP for Glasgow Kelvin 1997-2005, MP for Bethnal Green and Bow 2005-2010, MP for Bradford West 2012-2015. A flamboyant left-winger, talented orator and outspoken critic of Tony Blair and George W Bush, long involved in Palestinian and Arab causes. He opposed the 1991 Gulf war and travelled to Iraq several times, meeting both Saddam Hussein and Tariq Aziz and in 1998 founded a charity to campaign against sanctions on Iraq. He opposed the Iraq War and in 2003 was expelled from the Labour party for making comments encouraging British troops to refuse to obey illegal orders, he subsequently helped found the Respect party. He was elected in Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005 on a pledge to serve only one term, in 2010 he contested the neighbouring seat but lost. He returned again in the 2012 Bradford West by-election, winning on a huge swing but losing the seat at he following election.
portrait
PAUL GOLDING (Britain First) Sevenoaks councillor 2009-2011. Contested Sevenoaks 2010 for the BNP, Wales 2014 European elections for Britain First
portrait
LEE HARRIS (CISTA) Born South Africa. Owner of a headshop.
portrait
SOPHIE WALKER (Womens Equality) Born 1971, Scotland. Educated at City University. Journalist
portrait
JOHN ZYLINKSKI (Independent) Born 1951, Lewisham. Property developer.
portrait
ANKIT LOVE (One Love) Educated at Bishop Cotton School and American Community School, Cobham. Artist and filmmaker

2012 Election
Result
FIRST ROUND
Boris Johnson (Conservative) 971931 44.0% (+0.8%)
Ken Livingstone (Labour) 889918 40.3% (+3.3%)
Jenny Jones (Green) 98913 4.5% (+1.3%)
Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat) 91774 4.2% (-5.6%)
Siobhan Benita (Independent) 83914 3.8% (n/a)
Lawrence Webb (Fresh Choice for London) 43274 2.0% (+1.1%)
Carlos Cortiglia (BNP) 28751 1.3% (-1.6%)
MAJORITY 82013 3.7% (-1.5%)
Turnout 38.1% (-7.2%)
SECOND ROUND
Boris Johnson (Conservative) 1054811 51.5% (-1.7%)
Ken Livingstone (Labour) 992273 48.5% (+1.7%)
MAJORITY 62538 3.0% (-3.4%)
Candidates
portrait
Boris Johnson (Conservative) born 1964, New York, USA. Son of Stanley Johnson, former MEP, and brother of Jo Johnson, MP for Orpington. Educated at Eton and Oxford, a contemporary of David Cameron. Author, television presenter and journalist. Worked as a columnist on the Daily Telegraph and as editor of The Spectator. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, he has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and tendency to make gaffes. As shadow minister for arts under Michael Howard he survived being made to publically apologise to Liverpool over an editoral in the Spectator that accused them of wallowing in victimhood, but not the revelation (that he had previously described as "an inverted pyramid of piffle") that he had been conducting an affair with Petronella Wyatt. MP for Henley 2001-2008. Shadow minister for higher education 2005-2007. Mayor of London since 2008.
portrait
Ken Livingstone (Labour) born 1945, Lambeth. Educated at Tulse Hill Comprehensive and then trained as a teacher. Former Lambeth and Camden councillor. GLC member for Norwood from 1973-1977. GLC member for Hackney North and Stoke Newington 1977-1981. GLC member for Paddington 1981-1986. Contested Parliamentary seat in Hampstead 1979. Contested leadership of the Labour group on the GLC in 1980, losing to Andrew McIntosh. The day after Labour's victory in the GLC elections of 1981 he successfully challenged McIntosh to become the leader of the GLC. Livingstone led a left-wing populist regime in County Hall with a tendency toward symbolic acts of defiance towards the Conservative government it faced across the Thames. Livingstone's policy of subsidised public transport fares was struck down as unlawful, he declared London a nuclear free zone and extended an official invitation to Gerry Adams at a time when he was banned from the mainland. Livingstone resigned as leader and from the GLC in 1984 to fight a by-election on the issue of opposing the abolition of the GLC. Livingstone won the by-election, but the GLC was abolished at the end of 1986. Elected as MP for Brent East 1987. He served for two years on the Labour party NEC, but wa largely a marginal figure as an MP, appearing on TV game shows and writing newspaper columns. Following the establishment of an elected London mayor Livingstone was keen to run and sought the Labour nomination, but was opposed by Tony Blair and lost Labour's electoral college vote to the former cabinet minister Frank Dobson. Livingstone subsequently ran as an Independent candidate and was expelled from the Labour party. Following his election as an independent mayor he was re-admitted to the Labour party in 2004 and re-elected as mayor in 2004. As mayor Livingstone has twice been investigated by the Standards Board of England, the first over allegations of a fight at a party, the second after he compared a Jewish reporter to a concentration camp guard. Livingstone was cleared of the first accusation, the second resulted in a four week suspension from the office, which was later overturned by the the High Court.
portrait
Jenny Jones (Green) Born 1949, Brighton. Educated at UCL. Former financial controller and archaeologist. Southwark councillor 2006-2010. Londonwide assembly member since 2000. Deputy mayor of London 2003-2004. Contested Dulwich and West Norwood 2005, Camberwell and Peckham 2010.
portrait
Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat) born 1958, Balham. Educated at Bec Grammar School and Oxford University. A former police officer, he served as Police Commander for the borough of Lambeth from 2000-2002 and Deputy Assistant Commissioner from 2003-2007. During his time in charge of policing in Lambeth he pursued a softly-softly approach to drug use, not arresting or charging people for cannabis possession, and became known as one of the most senior openly gay police officers.
portrait
Siobhan Benita (Independent) born 1971, Wimbledon. Educated at the Ursuline High School and Warwick University. Former civil servant.
portrait
Lawrence Webb (UKIP) UKIP party organiser and former electrician. Contested Hornchurch 2005, London assembly list 2008, Hornchurch and Upminster 2010.
portrait
Carlos Cortiglia (BNP) Born Uruguay. Press officer and radio producer.
Comments - 716 Responses on “Mayor of London”
  1. New TNS poll:

    First preferences –

    Khan 45
    Goldsmith 33
    Pidgeon 7
    Whittle 5
    Berry 4
    Galloway 2
    Golding 1
    Furness 1
    Other 1

    Second preferences:

    Khan 57
    Goldsmith 43

    I expect there will be at least one more London poll (YouGov) to come.

  2. Andy54, you may enjoy the We Want Plates Twitter account.

    So second preferences breaking 12-10 towards Khan. If we assume that 2% from Furniss and Golding would go to Goldsmith, and 4% from Whittle with 1% going to Labour, Goldsmith must be slightly ahead with the remaining LDs. If there’s a last minute switch that might bump him up a couple of points, or more importantly cost the Lib Dems the 5% they need for a list seat.

  3. In yesterday’s Opinium and today’s ComRes Khan was ahead of Goldsmith in terms of LD transfers.
    The Galloway voter found by Opinium yesterday would have transferred to Goldsmith.

  4. On the subject of the potential Jewish vote in Barnet and Camden, Survation have done a (national) poll for the Jewish Chronicle… http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/157746/labour-support-among-british-jews-collapses-85-cent

    CON 67
    LAB 9
    LD 4
    UKIP 2

    Worth saying that very high levels of support for the Tories among Jews were also found in a similar poll before the GE last year, and that the methodology for this type of survey may be imperfect. But of the sample 18% voted LAB in 2015, so more than half their Jewish voters aren’t voting for them any more now Corbyn’s leader.

  5. That’s highly presumptuous if you look at the GLA polling. Labour’s lead is enormous.

  6. The internet tells me that there are about a quarter of a million Jews living in the UK, some of whom are too young to vote, so losing 10% of the Jewish vote would cost Labour no more than 20,000 votes. Around 2/3 of British Jews live in or around London, so they’ll lose between ten and fifteen thousand across London. That compares to just over a million that Boris got last time round, and that is needed to win. I suspect that, if the anti-semitism issue does harm Labour, it’s more likely to be in putting off swing voters than in the direct impact of Jewish voters switching away from the party.

  7. ‘The increase in the Tory vote in Hampstead – 2nd largest in the country after Sajid Javid’s Bromsgrove.’

    If that’s the case it seems highly odd that the Tories didn’t win Hampstead – given they were a mere 42 votes away in 2010

    That has now stretched to 1,138 – so despite the Tories increasing their share of the vote, there was still a swing from the Tories to Labour in the first election the Tories won a majority for 23 years

    On that basis it’s hard to see H&K as a good Tory result

  8. Dismore has a majority of almost 13%. Labour are polling ahead of their 2012 score.

  9. If the Tories lose Croydon’t and Sutton it would be unprecedented.

    According to the calcs in the London Borough Council elections book the seat has been “won” by the Conservatives at every election since the 1992 GE. The only other seat with that accolade is Bexley and Bromley…

  10. If the Tories lose Croydon and Sutton it would be unprecedented.

    According to the calcs in the London Borough Council elections book the seat has been “won” by the Conservatives at every election since the 1992 GE. The only other seat with that accolade is Bexley and Bromley…

  11. West Central would have been Labour in 1997…perhaps 2001 as well. Two Tory seats and Two and a half Labour seats.

  12. I’ve seen comments on various websites saying Labour are worried about the assembly seats in Barnet and Ealing.

  13. Still expecting a Goldsmith victory Andy?

  14. Never hurts to motivate your own side to go out and vote.

  15. Reports of some voters being turned away from Barnet polling stations due to an electoral register cock up. I am just heading down to vote now so will report back….

  16. Lots re Barnet on twitterssphere. Just fate I suppose it happens in the most Jewish borough after recent controversy.

  17. So, I was able to vote though the polling clerk had to add me to the list in pencil, checking against a correct list that they’d printed out. Obviously causing delays and probably overstretching the polling station staff – who, e.g., may not be able to attend to the ballot boxes to stop people putting their GLA papers in the council by-election box. A bit of a farce really and not the first time in Barnet after their council count in 2014 took about eight hours longer than it was supposed to.

  18. Appears the outsourcing may not be working too well then.

  19. Barnet Council have controversially outsourced many of their functions to Capita and the like, including some aspects of electoral services. However, as I understand it this does not include responsibility for the electoral register and electoral administration on the day.

  20. Chief Rabbi among those turned away!

  21. Surely even the Conservatives here have to admit the delicious irony of this outsourcing fiasco.

  22. I certainly think they’d be advised to curb their Thatcherite instincts a little.

  23. Ultimately much of the responsibility lies with central government, forcing councils to shoulder huge budget cuts. Almost all councils now outsource a significant amount of their administrative functions. One problem, when things go wrong, is that the outsourcing is often undertaken hundreds of miles away. The other day I noticed my council tax bill, in Mid Sussex, was sent & administered from Manchester, which is obviously a far cheaper place to locate a back office than SE England.

  24. If the problems in Barnet are serious enough there may be grounds for a re-run of the entire mayoral/GLA elections, or at least the Barnet bit.

  25. @HH

    You’re totally right about most of the responsibility lying with central govt. Though what makes Barnet slightly different from even most other Tory councils is that they won the 2014 election on a pledge to cut council tax, then freeze it for the rest of the term. Even most Tory councils are now increasing council tax.

    YouGov have just published their final call for today’s Standard:

    First preference –

    Khan 43 (-5)
    Goldsmith 32 (-)
    Whittle 7 (-)
    Berry 7 (+1)
    Pidgeon 6 (+1)
    Walker 2 (+2)
    Galloway (+1)
    Harris 1 (+1)
    Golding 1 (-)
    Love 0
    Furness 0
    Zylinski 0

    Second preference –

    Khan 57 (-3)
    Goldsmith 43 (+3)

  26. YouGov Assembly poll:

    Constituency –

    LAB 44 (-2)
    CON 30 (-)
    UKIP 11 (+2)
    LD 7 (-2)
    GRN 7 (-2)
    OTH 1

    List –

    LAB 39 (-6)
    CON 29 (-)
    UKIP 11 (+2)
    GRN 9 (+2)
    LD 8 (-)
    WEP 2 (+1)
    BNP 1 (+1)
    RES 1 (+1)
    OTH 1 (+1)

  27. This election must have the two poorest educated main contenders of any London mayoral election, or indeed of any top level election for a very long time. Sadiq Khan’s law degree from the former North London poly trumping Goldsmith’s not having attended university at all.

  28. Sky just showed the obligatory footage of Party Leaders walking to polling stations.

    Corbyn was on his own and the only one wearing a rosette.

    The Green Leader was flanked by 3 sizeable ladies.

    I assume they forgot about Tm Farron. Either that or the London media couldn’t be bothered getting anyone to go to the Lake District ha

    Incidentally, the BBC said some Counts aren’t til Saturday!

  29. “I assume they forgot about Tm Farron. Either that or the London media couldn’t be bothered getting anyone to go to the Lake District ha”

    More likely they forgot. Lake District is closer than London to the BBC now they are based in Salford.

  30. Although it’s often quicker to get to the North West from London, than it is to travel within the North West by train at least.

    True re HQ but most political journos even at the BBC seem to just stay in London (apart from North West Tonight’s Arif Ansari).

  31. PREDICTION

    The last poll:

    COMRES for ITV & LBC 28/4-3/5/16 – SAMPLE 1034 -ONLINE
    SK 41%
    ZG 33%
    CP 6%
    SB 6%
    PW 4%
    GG 1%

    DNK 7%

    Two things worth noting:
    1) 62% said they were “absolutely certain to vote”.
    2) When substituting BORIS JOHNSON for GOLDSMITH there was this result :
    SK 39%
    ZG 41%.

    There’s mutterings all over the Internet and anecdotally on the ground evidence that the Conservatives policy of painting Sadiq Khan as an extremist is paying dividends.

    It was noted that in the Commons today at PMQs Cameron followed this line time and time again and came armed with phrases and facts and figures regarding this issue

    This seems to just suggest that the Goldsmith plan of attacking Sadiq Khan is paying off and they think it worth pursuing up till the last minute.

    I can’t help thinking that this is going to be closer than 41/33.

    For a start we won’t see a 62% turnout more like 40%. This suggests that KHANs % is exaggerated.

    Differential turnout may be more significant than we think.

    BREXIT fan GOLDSMITH may benefit from him being anti EU. We know that LEAVERs are more motivated.

    PREDICTION

    The last poll:

    COMRES for ITV & LBC 28/4-3/5/16 – SAMPLE 1034 -ONLINE
    SK 41%
    ZG 33%
    CP 6%
    SB 6%
    PW 4%
    GG 1%

    DNK 7%

    Two things worth noting:
    1) 62% said they were “absolutely certain to vote”.
    2) When substituting BORIS JOHNSON for GOLDSMITH there was this result :
    SK 39%
    ZG 41%.

    There’s mutterings all over the Internet and anecdotally on the ground evidence that the Conservatives policy of painting Sadiq Khan as an extremist is paying dividends.

    It was noted that in the Commons at PMQs Cameron followed this line time and time again and came armed with phrases and facts and figures regarding this issue

    This seems to just suggest that the Goldsmith plan of attacking Sadiq Khan is paying off and they think it worth pursuing up till the last minute.

    I can’t help thinking that this is going to be closer than 41/33.

    For a start we won’t see a 62% turnout more like 38%. This suggests that KHANs % is exaggerated.

    Differential turnout may be more significant than we think.

    BREXIT fan GOLDSMITH may benefit from him being anti EU. We know that LEAVERs are more motivated.

    PREDICTION TO FOLLOW

  32. Sian Berry, the Green candidate for mayor, has called for Barnet polling stations to open on Friday morning if people haven’t been able to vote today.

    Not the first time Barnet have had trouble on election day. I seem to remember in 2010 they held the Hendon count in some sort of tent much to the annoyance of Andrew Dismore and others.

  33. “This seems to just suggest that the Goldsmith plan of attacking Sadiq Khan is paying off and they think it worth pursuing up till the last minute.”

    There is some pretty sold polling evidence which flies in the face of this: the movement in polling during this campaign has in fact shown a widening lead for Khan. So does this final ComRes poll, which puts him 12 points ahead in the 2nd Round.

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/lbc-itv-news-london-mayoral-poll-may-2016/

    As I read it the questions on perception of the candidates are also fairly positive for Khan over Goldsmith, but I guess that’s more a matter of interpretation.

  34. @Deepthroat There’s absolutely no evidence that Leave supporters are more likely to vote in a London mayoral election. Given the fact that more retainers are ABC1s, who usually vote in greater numbers, the reverse may be true.

  35. I agree with Deepthroat’s analysis. The result will be closer than most people predict. Remember, the retirees in the Bexley’s and Bromley’s of this world are unlikely to vote for a Muslim to be mayor.

    I still don’t rule out a shock Goldsmith win by a whisker (even though it is unlikely).

  36. Retainers should obviously read remainers.

  37. @ Christian

    If you (and others) are right and Goldsmith wins, then it would be a polling error twice the size of that in last year’s General Election.

  38. And after measures were taken to correct that error.

  39. PREDICTION 1ST Rnd:

    CON.36%
    LAB..40%
    LD…..6%
    GRN..7%
    UKIP..9%
    Oth. . 2%

    TURNOUT: 37.5%

    SADIQ KHAN wins overall 53% – 47%.

  40. The Green Mayoral candidate’s call was a bit bizarre.

    The law prevents any extension beyond 10pm today, never mind her suggestion of opening tomorrow.

    The result either stands or we have the election re-run.

  41. I reckon 58-42 to Khan.

  42. The leader of the Tories in the GLA- Andrew Boff- has just slagged off Goldsmith’s campaign on Newsnight. No way he would be doing that if he thought Goldsmith had event the faintest chance of winning, don’t you think?

  43. TRISTAN – he’s not the oracle on the London Mayor election result and to counter this Theo Usherwood of LBC has said a very poor turnout may well deliver it for GOLDSMITH.

    I think he’s wrong, my guess is SK will win but not huge:
    54% – 46 or 53% – 47.

    BETFAIR punters make KHAN a 97% favourite (1.03). And he’s also 1/33 at LADBROKES.

  44. In view of the results coming in, from Scotland especially, suggesting Labour are falling behind, I’m surprised that GOLDSMITHs price is still as high as 30-1.

  45. The Scottish results clearly have very little to do with who wins in London.

  46. KHAN approx 45% GOLDSMITH c. 34% after approx 15% votes counted. Updated on londonelects until 50% of votes reached.

    KHAN down to shortest ever – 1.02 – on BETFAIR 98% probability).

  47. Early days but Labour doing exceptionally well in the GLA seats. They are ahead in Croydon & Sutton, Merton & Wandsworth and, incredibly, South West. Barnet & Camden neck and neck.

  48. H.HEMMELIG

    Perhaps city workers in South West didn’t manage to get home by 10pm last night after the railway meltdown?

  49. Lab ahead in GLA but ZAC ahead in Mayor votes in Havering and R

    https://londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-results/live-count-progress-2016?contest=33

  50. KHAN ahead in 11 of the 14 constituencies. GOLDSMITH ahead in just BARNET, BEXLEY & WEST CENTRAL.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)