Mansfield

2015 Result:
Conservative: 13288 (28.2%)
Labour: 18603 (39.4%)
Lib Dem: 1642 (3.5%)
Green: 1486 (3.1%)
UKIP: 11850 (25.1%)
TUSC: 324 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 5315 (11.3%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: East Midlands, Nottinghamshire. Coterminous with the Mansfield council area.

Main population centres: Mansfield, Mansfield Woodhouse, Market Worsop.

Profile: A traditional former mining town on the western edge of Nottinghamshire. The coal mines have long since closed, and unemployment problems have been further exacerbated by the closures of other industries, such as the Mansfield Brewery and the AG Barr factory.

Politics: Mansfield has been held by the Labour party since the 1920s, althought not always entirely safely (in 1987 it was an ultra-marginal). The local Mansfield Independent Forum is extremely strong at a local level and this has translated into significant independent challenges in the Parliamentary seat - Stewart Rickersey took 17% of the vote in 2005 and Andre Camilleri 9% in 2010.


Current MP
ALAN MEALE (Labour) Born 1949, Bishop Auckland. Educated at St Joseph Roman Catholic School and Durham University. Former seaman and political assistant. First elected as MP for Mansfield in 1987. Opposition whip 1992-1994, PPS to John Prescott 1994-1998. Junior DETR minister 1998-1999.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12741 (26%)
Lab: 18753 (39%)
LDem: 7469 (15%)
UKIP: 2985 (6%)
Oth: 6447 (13%)
MAJ: 6012 (12%)
2005*
Con: 7035 (18%)
Lab: 18400 (48%)
LDem: 5316 (14%)
Oth: 7525 (20%)
MAJ: 10875 (28%)
2001
Con: 10012 (27%)
Lab: 21050 (57%)
LDem: 5790 (16%)
MAJ: 11038 (30%)
1997
Con: 10038 (21%)
Lab: 30556 (64%)
LDem: 5244 (11%)
MAJ: 20518 (43%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANDREA CLARKE (Conservative) Solicitor.
ALAN MEALE (Labour) See above.
TONY ROGERS (Liberal Democrat)
SID PEPPER (UKIP)
PAUL FROST (Green) Careers advisor.
KAREN SEYMOUR (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 80 Responses on “Mansfield”
  1. The new MP appeared on the BBC Daily Politics (East Midlands).

    It was the first time an MP from Mansfield had ever appeared on the BBC to be interviewed apparently.

  2. HH – I realise it’s easy to forget but the Tories have risen at each of the last 3 General Elections nationally.

  3. ‘ There’s certainly no guarantee Mansfield will stay Conservative after cross-party soft Brexit and the inevitable downturn which we are due by virtue of the economic cycle. IMO the Tories are on the decline and aren’t going to recover until after the next Labour government. I mostly agree with your thoughts on inter generational issues which are also becoming a big factor. ‘

    There’s no guarantees of anything and I agree about the economic cycle.

    Still UK electoral-demographics do seem to be following those in the USA so we can expect places like Mansfield to trend to the Conservatives just as the likes of Gedling go the other way.

    Where did you read my thoughts on inter-generational issues ? Was it here or at another place ?

  4. I’ve read them both here and elsewhere. I have never agreed with tuition fees right from the start, though abolition now would have to be accompanied by a big cut in mickey mouse courses which might be unpopular.

    If you’re right that our voting patterns are going to be like the USA then the Tories should be very worried indeed….the Republicans have outpolled the Democrats only once in the past 7 presidential elections. Relying solely on WWC voters is not enough for a convincing victory without adding others to the coalition.

  5. Sir Alan Meale has confirmed that he won’t seek re-election even if there’s another election in the next year or two.

    Of the other losing 50 or so MPs, 8 have so far said the same with the rest understandably taking time to consider the matter.

    Although clearly on age alone David Winnick, Byron Davies and a couple of others are hardly likely to.

    I wonder if Alex Salmond will return again as SNP Leader?

  6. ‘ I have never agreed with tuition fees right from the start, though abolition now would have to be accompanied by a big cut in mickey mouse courses which might be unpopular. ‘

    Its amazing how many people who I would class as being on the centre-right but capable of independent and intelligent thinking say the same.

    How the Conservatives got themselves into the current mess astonishes me.

    As to demographics the Conservatives are boosted by the differences between here and the USA and whereas the Republicans struggle with all minority groups the Conservatives can do very well among Jews and middle class Hindus. Something which probably saved them four North London seats this time.

    And while the Republicans struggle in Presidential elections their greater voting efficiency boost s them in Congressional and State elections.

    Likewise Labour piling up such enormous majorities in London, Merseyside and other cities achieves very little.

  7. True, plus whilst HH is right on vote share, Bush and Trump still won the election despite that being true.

    I realise Labour MPs in London won’t be bothered by the trends we saw but several are in the North.

    Incidentally the Odds now show that the Parties will face leadership elections in the following order: UKIP, LibDem, SNP, Labour, Tory so the consensus now seems to be May will go after Brexit with a new Leader in place by the 2019 Tory Conference.

  8. An interesting article on the decline of the Labour vote amongst the middle classes coupled with the decline of Labourism (fewer trade unionists and the ABC1s are now more likely to vote Labour than the C2DEs):

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/the-rise-of-labour-the-death-of-labourism-corbyn/19945#.WT_pwXQ2wqN

  9. Lancs Observer

    I would take the views of the member of Spiked (AKA the former Revolutionary Communist Party) with a pinch of salt if I were you.

  10. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42712180

    Fair to say that Ben Bradley’s seemingly impossible mission to get young people voting Tory has not got off to a good start…

  11. Another case of someone being pilloried for something when they were probably too young to know better. I probably said a lot of rubbish on this sort of front when I was 20, the problem these days is everything remains “in print”, so to speak.

  12. I’m torn on this. Nobody is squeaky clean, and if we carry on like this, with a single off-the-record comment being able to end careers, then in a generation’s time we will have precious few MPs left.

    However, historical comments like this are in themselves very revealing. In a world where politicians routinely say whatever is politically expedient, old tweets and the like can shine a light onto the sorts of things they really think, and highlight lying or hypocrisy. That is of immense public interest.

  13. ‘Another case of someone being pilloried for something when they were probably too young to know better.’

    Perhaps I am just naive but I would not say 20 is too young to know better. At what point do people become accountable for their words and actions?

    And in any case he would have been 23 or so when he made those comments. I would say that is almost certainly old enough to know better.

  14. Oh, and let’s not kid ourselves – many Tories, both young and old, will agree with what he said, without making it publicly known. Unfortunately for Mr Bradley, he probably didn’t envisage himself being an MP in 5 years time.

  15. For Mansfield of all places

  16. Cheesus: “Tories, both young and old, will agree with what he said, without making it publicly known.”

    They are probably still a minority, but yes, these sorts of views do fall within the broad tent of Conservative voters and their elected representatives.

    Ultimately, this is why Ben Bradley’s comments haven’t caught fire in the same way Jared O’Mara’s did. O’Mara’s bigoted opinions fell well outside what is considered acceptable in the Labour Party – which led an internal revolt against him. Not quite the same for Bradley. (Also, so far it’s just one isolated comment. O’Mara was a serial offender.)

  17. Unfortunately I think such comments are going to come increasingly commonplace in Brexit Britain, now the racists, bigots, retards and wannabe snobs have their mojo back

  18. Leaflets decalaring ‘your Tory MP supports police brutality’ to go out to every resident?

  19. “Perhaps I am just naive but I would not say 20 is too young to know better. At what point do people become accountable for their words and actions?

    And in any case he would have been 23 or so when he made those comments. I would say that is almost certainly old enough to know better.”

    I’d be totally forgiving if an old fart in their 70s made those comments. That’s the way of the world. But coming out of the mouth of a 23 year old, forgive my French, makes him sound like a young fogey Tory Boy twat. A wannabe young William Hague or Justin Hinchcliffe. It just goes to show that the comprehensive schooled Tory Boys are often even more offputting than the public school variety.

    I expect Labour will re-take Mansfield next time and that Mr Bradley will fade into Aden Burleyesque obscurity. But this won’t have much to do with it.

  20. ‘It just goes to show that the comprehensive schooled Tory Boys are often even more offputting than the public school variety.’

    That’s been case for many years now

    Tories from comprehensive schools – David Nuttal, Andrew Percy, Tebbitt, this fellow – on a whole seem to be much more right wing and populist that those from the traditional ruling class – Heseltine, Cameron, Soames – and thus prone to making remarks their public school counterparts wouldn’t dare, even if they agreed

    I guess it’s natural that any political party becomes more like the people who vote for it

  21. Tim: I think you are cherry picking there. There are posh right-wingers (eg Jacob Rees-Mogg), and working-class moderates (eg Justine Greening). I don’t particularly see any correlation overall.

  22. Rees-Mogg wouldn’t dream of making such stupid remarks.

  23. Should say also that anyone can fall on hard times these days, in our increasingly insecure and precarious job market. You can’t just send your kids back. Bradley is tempting fate given how marginal his seat is.

  24. To be fair to this guy, the Tories difficulties with young people started way before these comments were revealed (obviously). I think this comments are simplistic and naive, but probably not career ending.

    As HH said, the vast majority of British are not- or ever will be- ‘rich’ in any real sense. Life feels more precarious than ever, even if you have a reasonably well paying job and save regularly. And Christ knows when people of my age will be allowed to retire.

  25. HH – although on a polling site it’s only fair to point out that over 80% support the £20,000 pa Benefits’ Cap and 68% support the 2 child limit for Child Benefit.

    I imagine of those who switched from Labour to Tory here, they also agree with those policies.

  26. JRM doesn’t believe in police brutality

  27. Maybe my initial instincts were wrong, maybe there is more nasty stuff to come out of the woodwork here.

    Certainly police brutality is something else, something that I don’t think has anything more than fringe support in this country. I don’t think anyone in this country defended Mariano Rajoy’s use of state-sanctioned violence against Catalans, for example. It’s not like a somewhat crass defence of actually quite popular limits on state welfare, it’s significantly more damaging than that.

    Still think it’s unlikely he’ll end up suspended, but less confident than I was yesterday. And whenever I say something’s a storm in a teacup, it tends to blow up.

  28. PT – many – including the EU – defended Spain’s actions.

    I’m more of a libertarian than authoritarian, but polls have shown the British do support tough physical actions by the State in certain circumstances. The only polls I can think of are those that showed 72% supported the decision to send the SAS into the Iranian Embassy and 56% supported the availability of water cannon against rioters and looters in London 5 or 6 years ago.

  29. ‘I imagine of those who switched from Labour to Tory here, they also agree with those policies.’

    Almost certainly

    It’s often said that many WWC Labour (should that be former) voters were traditionally way to the Right on social issues of their middle class counterparts, and it’s these types of voters, many of whom voted UKIP in 2015, that seem to be switching from Labour to Tory – arguably once and for all in the same way the WWC deserted the Democrats for the Republicans in the US over past decades

    Whilst it might not seem like it at the moment, I think in the longer term this shift has more negative implications tor the Tories than Labour

  30. Momentum-backed councillor has won by a landslide in Mansfield.

    Labour group leader Sonya Ward won the selection race on the first round, receiving 151 votes out of 286 at the meeting. There was 3 0ther candidates.

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