Manchester Central

2015 Result:
Conservative: 6133 (13.5%)
Labour: 27772 (61.3%)
Lib Dem: 1867 (4.1%)
Green: 3838 (8.5%)
UKIP: 5033 (11.1%)
TUSC: 270 (0.6%)
Others: 418 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 21639 (47.7%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Manchester council area.

Main population centres: Moss Side, Hulme, Ancoats, Newton Heath.

Profile: The rapidly redeveloping and growing centre of Manchester. This contains the thriving City Centre itself, but also some of the blighted and troubled inner-city housing around it. These areas were once infamous for poverty and drug violence, but in recent years have seen substantial redevelopment and the beginnings of gentrification. Levels of owner-occupation remain low, with most of the residents living in private rented or social housing. The seat contains Manchester University and has a substantial student population, as well as Manchester`s Chinatown. The seat has the highest proportion of people with a Chinese ethnic background of any in the country.

Politics: A safe Labour seat with one of the largest electorates in the country. A large electorate does not, however, necessarily equate to lots of votes and the 2012 by-election had a turnout of only 18.2%, a record low.

By-Election: There was a by-election in this seat in LAB HOLD. For full details see here.


Current MP
LUCY POWELL (Labour) Born 1974, Manchester. Educated at Oxford University. Former Chief of Staff to Ed Miliband. Director of Britain in Europe from 2004-5. Contested Manchester Withington 2010. First elected as MP for Manchester Central in 2012 by-election. Shadow cabinet office minister 2014-2015. Shadow Education Secretary since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 4704 (12%)
Lab: 21059 (53%)
LDem: 10620 (27%)
BNP: 1636 (4%)
Oth: 1908 (5%)
MAJ: 10439 (26%)
2005*
Con: 2504 (9%)
Lab: 16993 (58%)
LDem: 7217 (25%)
GRN: 1292 (4%)
Oth: 1258 (4%)
MAJ: 9776 (33%)
2001
Con: 2328 (9%)
Lab: 17812 (69%)
LDem: 4070 (16%)
GRN: 1018 (4%)
Oth: 700 (3%)
MAJ: 13742 (53%)
1997
Con: 3964 (12%)
Lab: 23803 (71%)
LDem: 4121 (12%)
Oth: 907 (3%)
MAJ: 19682 (59%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Manchester, Central

Demographics
2015 Candidates
XINGANG WANG (Conservative) Born China. Educated at Imperial College. Accountant.
LUCY POWELL (Labour) See above.
JOHN REID (Liberal Democrat)
MYLES POWER (UKIP) Born 1974, Singapore. Solicitor.
KIERAN TURNER-DAVE (Green) Educated at Manchester University.
JOHN PAUL DAVIES (Communist League)
LOZ KAYE (Pirate) Composer, musician and teacher. Contested Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election, Manchester Central 2012 by-election.
ALEX DAVIDSON (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 238 Responses on “Manchester Central”
  1. Pepp – true. Either that or I counted the Bank Hol (when I expect local deliveries of letters to postal voters to take place) or GOTV on PD. Plus its only the broadcast media who are restricted on PD and the BBC in particular: MEN, Lpool Echo etc have a live blog on Polling Day.

    HH – whilst I’ll take your word for it, the anger here is palpable and justified IMHO. I don’t do twitter but any time I search it, it seems to be full of liberals refusing to accept it’s a terrorist attack or an Islamist even after either are confirmed – and racists retweeting their ‘snowflake cuck’ posts. But maybe that’s a feature of twitter or London I’m not used to. Incidentally is that true re Ken – I thought with him employing Lee Jasper he was v PC on race? Although I agree that he handled the aftermath media well in the same way Hollande did (even though I rate neither of them).

    Security is being increased at sporting events including the FA Cup Final this weekend, the Epsom Oaks & Derby the week after but just as a precaution and to reassure. Police haven’t yet said whether the planned Games in Manchester this weekend and 10k runs in Manc & Lpool can go ahead, as presumably they want to ensure they have everyone picked up, if a cell or network exists in the city.

  2. Apparently Labour HQ have advised their MPs they can continue their local campaigns tomorrow but the national campaign will be suspended until further notice

  3. What’s happening in Glasto? Is it going to be more secure?

  4. “the anger here is palpable and justified IMHO. I don’t do twitter but any time I search it, it seems to be full of liberals refusing to accept it’s a terrorist attack or an Islamist even after either are confirmed”

    Whereas the comments on Guido are the opposite extreme, knee jerk bile inciting indiscriminate hatred against muslims. The snowflakes and BNPers are as bad as each other if you ask me. Anger is justified and understandable of course, but knee jerk reactions and disruption is exactly what the terrorists want to provoke. We need to stay strong and persevere.

    “I thought with him employing Lee Jasper he was v PC on race?”

    Yes, as I wrote, that controversy came in 2007-8 just ahead of his first defeat to Boris. Ken in 2005 was pretty mellow and focused on transport, the Olympics and other nitty gritty stuff, which he was admittedly pretty good at, unlike his divisive interventions on race matters. He’s one of those people who should have stayed focused on what they were good at.

  5. Fair enough, I agree with with you then. As you said earlier too early too discuss the poliical consequences just yet, but I tend to agree with Brendan O’Neill that we should feel anger:

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/after-manchester-its-time-for-anger/19849#.WSSvG3Q2wqM

    Even Morrissey has apparently said why is no-one saying what the public are saying in private.

  6. Surely we feel what we feel, this is a free country and I for one don’t wish to think there is a correct way that we “should feel” after such an event.

    I think anger is likely to be a widespread feeling, and very justified. But inner feelings don’t have to be expressed, and I’m not sure there is any constructive way of expressing our anger.

  7. If you read his article that is his point – he feels we are not allowed to express anger and those who do are ignored or frowned upon.

  8. which is almost the opposite of what I was saying – the only thing we agree on is that anger is not an unnatural response. But I disagree that it’s the only natural response (which you seem to imply) and with the assumption that just because we feel angry we should yell about it.

  9. Matt

    Is it confirmed that Lab campaigns are resuming at local level today, as per your comment?

    Is that what you are doing?

  10. UKIP have announced their proceeding with their manifesto launch tomorrow, have to say I agree with that decision. One days break and one days light campaigning is more than enough as a sign of respect, anything else is capitulation to terrorism.

    The show must go on as one could say…

  11. Wellytab – no his point is that why should anger not be allowed and why the focus on fear of racism. Working class people are fully capable of being both angry at Islamists and not attacking the local Indian shop owner or cab driver (who also hate Islamists).

    I didn’t imply it was the only feeling: I was agreeing that it has been the norm for the media to only show grief. Indeed when asked Cllr Karney ignored the question of what does he say to those who feel anger that the bomber lived in their midst and others must have known.

  12. Rivers10 – as I said originally the main Parties in the NW have no desire to resume campaigning yet. I fully expected UKIP not to abide by that informal agreement.

    The first campaign events we’ve been notified of are currently listed for Tuesday onwards – but I assume local activists can resume from the Bank Holiday or maybe even the weekend. But I doubt either Lab or CCHQ would want to be the first to make any national breaks from the sensible agreement to suspend the national campaign for a few days – especially when arrests are still ongoing.

  13. Labour appear to agree that the GE campaign will not resume ’til at least the weekend:

    http://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/86189/excl-labour-tells-branches-election-campaign

  14. Sky are reporting that, “special forces – possibly the SAS – are in Manchester” but obviously the Govt does not comment on special forces.

    There certainly were military personnel raiding properties in the city centre (off Sackville & Canal St), next to the gay village earlier:

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-arena-bombing-live-attack-13075807

    So far today, 3 more have been arrested.

  15. The Lib Dems must be hoping they can hold their deposit this time.

  16. The Sun’s political correspondent Matt Dathan had been advised by Labour HQ that local campaigns may resume today. Mike Gapes has come out and said he’d begin campaigning this morning.

    No I won’t be campaigning today.

  17. Will the Lib Dems hold their deposit this time?

  18. Matt W – the official line from Labour HQ is that local campaigning will resume tomorrow afternoon (Thursday), with Corbyn resuming the national campaign on Friday afternoon.

  19. I will be in Corby tomorrow afternoon

  20. I am going to be campaigning in Kilburn tomorrow.

  21. Might the UKIP vote rise here?

  22. HM Queen has just spent over half an hour talking to the injured children and staff at the Royal Manchester Children’s Hospital.

    Unusually the Palace allowed a broadcaster to film the conversations up close.

    Apparently the Queen said the bomber was, “very wicked” and they/it “must be dealt with.”

  23. Thomas – if you meant because of here, it could, but I don’t think it will.

    The impression I got was that the UKIP launch was ill-timed and OTT, especially Suzanne Evans’ May must “take some responsibility line.”

    In the same way I think that Corbyn’s attack on foreign policy today is just too early.

    We can have that debate next week – although I think he’s wrong given that there were 80 Islamist terrorist attacks even before the Gulf War and we’ve not bombed Kenya or Tunisia where they murdered British tourists shopping and sunbathing.

    I’m pleased to see that Farron, ex-Labour Home Secs Charles Clarke and Alan Johnson and even the SNP (who released the Libyan Lockerbie bomber) all saying why Corbyn is wrong today.

    I’m told it may even result in a couple of Labour figures either endorsing the Tories or saying they can’t vote Labour now, as the feelings are that strong.

    Certainly HH was right when he said that CCHQ have quotes and PPBs in reserve. We’ve just all received from them a list of 25 quotes on security. Half are from JC & JMc and half are from Labour figures denouncing them.

    I assume they were ready in advance as most of the dates are not recent.

  24. “Certainly HH was right when he said that CCHQ have quotes and PPBs in reserve. We’ve just all received from them a list of 25 quotes on security. Half are from JC & JMc and half are from Labour figures denouncing them.”

    The question being whether it’s deemed tasteful to campaign on this territory in the aftermath of Manchester, and whether it will make much difference.

    The one crumb of comfort for May is that Labour’s poll ratings are massively reliant on under 30s who have shown time and again that they can’t be bothered to vote.

  25. True, although Corbyn seems to be receiving the fire from all sides including his own.

    I haven’t changed my opinion incidentally (a big May win). Bets placed still favour a majority of 80 – 125 and I think people decided 6 months ago that Corbyn just wasn’t PM material and so a campaign only tends to alter +/-2%. In any case him managing to gain the 2015 Green vote was always possible, but clearly that’s nothing compared with the UKIP voting going Tory.

    As Alex Salmond – who is fond of horse racing – said, “Jeremy Corbyn is 12/1 in a two horse race. He’s akin to a 14-year-old maiden carrying 12 stone 10 and pulling up half way around.”

  26. I think we’ve had a bad campaign.
    I suspect Labour will now poll about the same as in 2015, possibly 1 pc up.
    The Tory share should still rise 3-4pc.
    I’m less confident of gaining safer Labour seats and even some very marginal Labour seats, particularly where the Greens have withdrawn.
    It probably will end up about 42-32-11-6, which I think would be a majority of 40-60.
    The social care mess is serious and I wish they’d just bin it completely but I suspect people will recoil from Corbyn over defence and security.

  27. I was hoping for 45% which is what was achieved in the 1979 election. Maybe it’s still possible if things can be turned round quickly.

  28. Most of the public only engage in the final 10 days. I honestly can’t see why people think the social care proposal will harm the target seats.

    Plus once you get above 40% you start winning a lot more. It’s not so much a lead being eg 8%+ – it’s that eg 43 v 35 produces a hell of a lot more than eg 38 v 30 would.

  29. Maybe I’m being cautious.
    I don’t believe Labour will poll 38pc so if the same poll still had the Tories on 43% it’s reasonably bomb proof, but I do think the social care mess raised fears and it’s hard to measure the effect. The Labour vote may have firmed up.
    Personally I’d prefer if a mistake is made to put your hand up and just withdraw it saying it was an attempt to sort out funding but went wrong.

  30. Sorry that was a rather bad phrase to use.

  31. The UK Terror Threat Level has been reduced from Critical, so the army and extra police patrols will be stood down on Monday.

    It sounds as if GMP have picked up all of the cell, but I understand there are legal reasons why they won’t say that – in case they need to arrest any friends who knew an attack was planned.

    A very efficient British investigation and action.

  32. “Jeremy Corbyn today vows to invest millions of pounds in hiring 1,000 more spies as Labour sets out its response to the atrocity in Manchester.

    Corbyn, who this week repeated his verdict that the war on terror had failed, will pledge to spend more money on expanding the security services and hiring more police and border guards.

    The party leader will say the Tories’ “large-scale” cuts have led to a loss of 37,000 workers across police and security.”

    http://labourlist.org/2017/05/corbyn-vows-to-hire-more-spies-to-tackle-terror-threat/

  33. Labour List has an article from a Labour member outraged at Corbyn’s lies re the IRA and the NI peace process.

    I understand there’s also 25 or so Labour figures set to denounce him in similar terms. I assume this will largely be Cllrs in a letter to the Times or such like – as presumably any who sign a letter specifically saying not to vote Labour would face suspension?

    Personally, I know of 2 Labour Cllrs and a Candidate in the NW who are prepared to denounce his record in this area.

  34. TV viewing figures:

    BBC Debate (JC, Rudd et al) 3.5 m (7.2m watched BGT)

    Paxman: TM & JC 2.9m (BGT 8.5 million)

    In May the highest figures for progs featuring politics/ca:

    Three Girls, BBC1 8.2 million

    Gogglebox, Ch4 3.3m

    PEBs 1.8m – 4.1m

    The above figures are as I expected and contrary to the huge 10 million some on here were suggesting would watch the tv debates.

    People do however tune in during times of crisis – the numbers watching the main evening News doubled after the attack in Manchester.

  35. I don’t think that younger voters are that bothered about the IRA. It is yesterday’s battle.

  36. Primary school teacher, PPC Cllr Matthew Sephton has been charged and will appear in Court on Wednesday 12th July 2017.

    The NCA said the 6 offences including the making and distribution of child pornography and the possession of extreme pornography.

    Both Trafford Council and the NW Conservative Party declined to comment.

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/tory-councillor-charged-making-distributing-1319477/

  37. Trafford Cllr Matthew Sephton has pleaded not guilty to 6 charges.

    He is set to appear at Crown Court on August 9th.

    The Tory PPC & LGBTory chairman was suspended by the Party, who again declined to comment.

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/councillor-appears-court-charged-making-13320204

  38. Did you post that just for Tristan 🙂

    Seriously you are making my point for me.

    If the general population contained as high a proportion of paedophiles as councils do then it would be a very grim world indeed for our children.

  39. And a primary school teacher as well. How sickening.

    Having a 5 year old at primary school brings home to you how trusting and naively enthusiastic kids are at that age. You have no alternative but to put all your trust in the teachers to treat and teach them properly. I don’t often go all Tim Jones but if guilty, I hope this guy gets on the wrong end of a few good hidings in prison.

  40. Well well well. Congratulations Lancs- that must have been tough for you.

    Councils may or may not be bad for this kind of thing- no idea really. Having had the briefest of brushes with the entertainment industry (and having friends who still work in that area), I’m certain that nothing could be worse than that cesspit..

  41. Except Westminster – the teenage SPADs and hangers on as much as the MPs

  42. ‘Having a 5 year old at primary school brings home to you how trusting and naively enthusiastic kids are at that age. You have no alternative but to put all your trust in the teachers to treat and teach them properly. I don’t often go all Tim Jones but if guilty, I hope this guy gets on the wrong end of a few good hidings in prison.’

    It’s tempting to think like that, especially when you have children, but systematic violence in prison is definitely not something anyone should be encouraging or celebrating, even if the person on the receiving end is reprehensible.

    As for the councillor in question – this is a sensitive subject to discuss because child pornography is absolutely disgusting, but there is also plenty of evidence to suggest that paedophiles can’t stop being paedophiles – that’s just how they’re wired. This doesn’t mean tolerance of paedophilia, but I wish people with such thoughts could seek help more easily.

  43. It’s perfectly obvious that you aren’t a parent yourself. I couldn’t give a monkeys how paedophiles are wired and don’t want to know. Impose a mandatory life sentence for all child sex offences reduced to a minimum of 5 years if the offender agrees to castration. I think you might find most of them miraculously re-wire themselves faced with that.

    Violation of a child’s right to innocence is one of the worst crimes imagineable.

  44. HH – no, I’m still catching up with various Court cases since I got back.

    I can only assume Tristan missed the 129 LD, Con, UKIP, SNP & Ind Cllrs convicted [and defectors – some were the same individuals of course] I posted about on here previously! Funny that he spotted the 12 Labour ones though.

    Incidentally, I also looked up the name Tristan – there are none in my Merseyside constituency; but, 34 Tristan and Tristrams in Chelsea!

  45. I know a Tristan in Kent but thats not very useful

  46. I very much hesitated as posting his at the risk of sounding like an apologist so to emphasise I’M NOT!!!

    Of course paedophilia is an abhorrent, inexcusable crime but as Cheesus mentioned its how their sexually wired, threatening them with life in prison isn’t going to deter them, would life in prison deter anyone here from whatever (hopefully legal) thing that gets them off?

    This issue is going to become more pertinent in the future cos a growing number of people acknowledge there will always be paedophiles but with the advancement of technology it might be possible to stop them harming REAL children by providing them with (for example) computer generated child pornography. I think of myself as a very open minded progressive individual but even I admit I don’t know how I feel about this but nonetheless its something we’re going to hear more about over the coming years so Daily Mail-esque outrage certainly isn’t going to result in any meaningful conversation. If such a policy actually resulted in less acts of violence against children I’m inclined to think that’s more useful than cries to “hang the b*stards”

  47. rivers10

    “computer generated child pornography”

    You do realise that making this sort of material is a criminal offence at the moment?

    I think so called progressives have lost their minds if they think that it is acceptable to satisfy paedophiles in this way. It has to be remembered that it is illegal for an adult to engage in sexual activity with a child. Long may it stay illegal. An individual having the brain wired to commit rape is not an excuse in my opinion.

    However, I would say you are entitled to your views as any other person is entitled to advocate what they think on any subject.

  48. Carcharodon carcharias
    That is exactly why I feared writing that, you have twisted my words completely.

    “You do realise that making this sort of material is a criminal offence at the moment?”
    Yes and I never said otherwise, that’s why I stipulated it would be a policy change.

    “I think so called progressives have lost their minds if they think that it is acceptable to satisfy paedophiles in this way”
    Even if it was proven to markedly reduce violence against REAL children? If so your priority isn’t the protection of children its protecting your own sensibilities.

    “It has to be remembered that it is illegal for an adult to engage in sexual activity with a child. Long may it stay illegal”
    Who the hell is talking about sexual activity with a child?!?! I never once said I thought that was acceptable, in fact I specifically stipulated it wasn’t. What you have done there (intentionally or unintentionally) is subtly imply that I think paedophilia is acceptable which I have to say I take serious offence to cos I think nothing of the sort.

    “An individual having the brain wired to commit rape is not an excuse in my opinion”
    No it isn’t an excuse but what it demonstrates is that no amount of deterrents are going to stop them, you either take preventative measures or you deal with the aftermath.

    “However, I would say you are entitled to your views”
    Their not even my views, I specifically mentioned that the idea made me uncomfortable, all I’m doing is not dismissing it out of hand but personally I’d need more convincing on the merits. I was only mentioning the arguments put forward by others.

  49. HH- I didn’t know you had children. You’ve certainly never mentioned it, or made a point of it before. You’ve certainly never used the fact that you have children to snottily dismiss other people’s opinions out of hand.Congrats!

    Lancs- you’re a creep. Plus Tristan is actually my middle name so a bit of an epic fail on your side. Congrats!

    Rivers- I don’t know why you bother trying to reason with these people at times.

  50. ‘It’s perfectly obvious that you aren’t a parent yourself.’

    I am not, and thus am able to approach such issues with a level head rather than rambling on about castration like some sort of nutcase.

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