Maidenhead

2015 Result:
Conservative: 35453 (65.8%)
Labour: 6394 (11.9%)
Lib Dem: 5337 (9.9%)
Green: 1915 (3.6%)
UKIP: 4539 (8.4%)
Independent: 162 (0.3%)
Others: 55 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 29059 (54%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Berkshire. The western part of the Windsor and Maidenhead council area and part of the Wokingham council area to the east of Reading.

Main population centres: Maidenhead, TWyford, Bray, Wargrave, Cookham.

Profile: The constituency consists of the town of Maidenhead itself, an affluent town on the Thames with strong high-tech and pharmaceutical industries, but also stretches south-west to include a swathe of countryside right up to the suburbs of Reading. The seat includes the villages of Cookham, Wargrave, Twyford and Bray - now best known as the location of Heston Blumenthal`s restaurant The Fat Duck, named as the best restaurant in the world in 2005.

Politics: Affluent and middle class, politically Maidenhead has been Conservative since it was split off from the equally Conservative Windsor and Maidenhead seat in 1997. In 2001 the majority fell to just over 3,000 and the seat was supposedly one of those where the Liberal Democrats attempted to "decapitate" leading Conservative politicians. In the event the Conservative majority doubled and with beneficial boundaries charges for the Tories in 2005 it is increasingly safe.


Current MP
THERESA MAY (Conservative) Born 1956, Eastbourne. Educated at Holton Park Girls Grammar and Oxford University. Former financial consultant. Merton councillor 1986-1994. Contested North West Durham 1992, Barking 1994 by-election. First elected as MP for Maidenhead in 1997. Shadow education secretary 1999-2001, shadow transport secretary 2001-2002, Chairman of the Conservative party 2002-2004, shadow family secretary 2004-2005, shadow culture secretary 2005, shadow leader of the Commons 2005-2009, shadow work and pensions secretary 2009-2010. Home Secretary since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31937 (59%)
Lab: 3795 (7%)
LDem: 15168 (28%)
UKIP: 1243 (2%)
Oth: 1577 (3%)
MAJ: 16769 (31%)
2005*
Con: 23312 (51%)
Lab: 4144 (9%)
LDem: 17081 (37%)
BNP: 704 (2%)
Oth: 609 (1%)
MAJ: 6231 (14%)
2001
Con: 19506 (45%)
Lab: 6577 (15%)
LDem: 16222 (37%)
UKIP: 741 (2%)
Oth: 272 (1%)
MAJ: 3284 (8%)
1997
Con: 25344 (50%)
Lab: 9205 (18%)
LDem: 13363 (26%)
Oth: 1339 (3%)
MAJ: 11981 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA MAY (Conservative) See above.
CHARLES SMITH (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Solicitor.
ANTHONY HILL (Liberal Democrat) Former headteacher. Contested Maidenhead 2010.
HERBIE CROSSMAN (UKIP) Security consultant. Harrow councillor 1994-1998 for the Liberal Democrats. Contested Harrow West 1997 for the Referendum party, Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election as Independent, Harrow West 2010 for UKIP.
EMILY BLYTH (Green) Musician.
JOE WILCOX (Class War)
IAN TAPLIN (Independent)
Links
Comments - 2,732 Responses on “Maidenhead”
  1. Well, true, but a few PMs are viewed a bit more sympathetically as time passes. Callaghan and Brown might be two examples. Hard to see May getting too much sympathy in say 10 years, even if she was dealt a pretty woeful hand.

  2. Also John Major. In general it seems to happen to “end of a dynasty” PMs who are washed away on a political tide they can do nothing about.

  3. With the cross party talks collapsing it’s hard to see anything but a no deal Brexit on 31st October and Tory remainers suddenly converting to the cause post leadership election.

  4. @Tristan

    I think history will look more kindly on her than on Cameron. She will probably be viewed as a bad Prime minister who was nevertheless put in an extremely difficult position by her predecessor who called a referendum with no plan and then just walked away when it blew up in his face leaving May to clear up his mess. Thus in 50 years time I reckon she’ll be viewed with a certain degree of sympathy whilst Cameron will be viewed as an Anthony Eden type figure despite the fact he accomplished far more than May but his legacy will be permanently tarnished by Brexit.

  5. “With the cross party talks collapsing it’s hard to see anything but a no deal Brexit on 31st October and Tory remainers suddenly converting to the cause post leadership election.”

    I see you’ve learned nothing from your repeated posts saying this in the past.

    It’s a possibility but to say it’s hard to see any other outcome is bloody daft.

    It’s highly likely parliament will bring down any government that looks set to be headed for No Deal.

    It’s possible that Boris would prefer that, giving him the luxury of opining for No Deal as leader of the opposition while Corbyn negotiates a softer exit or abandons Brexit altogether.

  6. PS I saw Boris on his bike on Waterloo Bridge yesterday

  7. Peppermintea- strong analysis and I agree with much of it. I’m not sure I agree though that May has been completely at the mercy of events.

    It’s easy to forget how strong her position was post referendum…a hugely indulgent, borderline sycophantic press, and a Cabinet/ party that seemed terrified of her.

  8. I think the Lancaster House speech was a mistake (never box yourself in like that) and her both her calling of the general election and her performance in the campaign was dreadful. She also played up to the ERG far too much post referendum, pre election…only to subsequently start ignoring them post election, which they were obviously never going to be happy about. All of the above were her choices and mistakes.

  9. Nigel Farrage has claimed one or two tory mp’s might be soon ready to defect to the Brexit party. Take that with a pinch of salt considering a no deal/wto Brexit s likely to become government policy soon.

  10. And with fragmentation of the soft brexit and remain options a Tory party running on a no deal platform stands a fairly decent chance of the likely snap election that would trigger.

  11. Brexit party again ahead of Conservatives in a national election poll .

  12. @Tristan

    I agree with most of that actually. What she should have done is reached out across party lines to achieve a fairly soft Brexit (especially after the failure to get a majority in 2017) because the numbers in parliament were never there for a hard Brexit.

    But even so I think history will judge her far less harshly than Cameron because he called the referendum without preparing for a leave outcome (assuming Remain would win easily) which is quite frankly unforgivable and then just threw in the towel as soon as it went wrong and didn’t even try to sort it out. May has many faults and say what you will about her but at least she’s persevered, there have been numerous opportunities when she could have quit (possibly to be succeeded by someone worse) but she’s carried on, I believe there is something to be admired in that.

    Thus I believe her legacy will broadly be:
    ‘A bad prime minister who made a lot of mistakes but who nevertheless was the least bad person for the job at the time. She was left in a very tricky situation by the mistakes of her predecessor but despite the odds as well as her own failings attempted to find a way forward’.

    Cameron’s legacy in the history books on the other hand will be something like this:
    ‘A terrible prime minister who called a referendum on something he never believed in as a cynical party political move and worse made no attempt to even plan for the eventuality of the other side winning. Then when the country desperately needed leadership he walked away from his post. One of the worst PMs in modern Britain’.

    Cameron undoubtedly achieved much more than May but unfortunately all of his successes will be near totally forgotten e.g. gay marriage, modernisation of the Tory Party (despite the narrative the Tories actually haven’t reverted to how they were pre-Cameron) and I would argue good economic management. His legacy will be entirely about the referendum and his mishandling of it.

  13. What has been revealed is the unfitness for purpose of the Conservative party.

    May being chosen leader despite her lack of political and leadership skills.

    May’s inability to learn from GE2017 and improve her people skills.

    Frontbenchers more interested in their personal ambitions than the good of the country.

    Backbenchers demanding their personal fantasies or willing to play along with those doing so.

    Members obsessing about things they have no idea about.

    And before all that Cameron and Osborne discrediting every future economic warning through the lies they pedaled in their ‘Project Fear’.

  14. Thressa May to make a big and bold offer at 4pm. Can’t see it passing because enough tories now want no deal to block it.

  15. She’s already agreed to resign, I can’t see what else she can offer…

  16. It just seems like something that wont pass – and the more backbench Labour mp’s who support it (the likes of Lisa Nandy or Melanie Onn) the more of the ERG who will be opposed.

  17. May’s offer has predictably flopped with her backbenches – clearly no way the WAB is passing under May.
    I even doubt it will pass under a new pm – all routes look to eventually no other option but an election.

  18. Lots of ppl have said PM will go before we get to the WAB on 4-6 June (if it ever gets to the floor of the house ). WAB has no suppor…and why aren’t Brexit Cabinet Minister’s resigning? Notwithstanding this, it’s hard to see her surviving past first week in June.

    But then that this has been predicted many times befor

  19. Well the pizza club are absent from PMQ due to an emergency meeting – possibility some will resign if she won’t.

    UK, Opinium poll: European Election
    Brexit: 38%
    Labour: 17%
    Lib Dem: 15%
    Tory: 12%
    Green: 7%
    Change Uk: 3%

  20. Seems like Brexit Party are now in the high thirties with every pollster. It’s the relative positioning of the parties behind them that is more contested.

  21. Yeah – I think they will do even better and get 40% +.

    They is almost no way a no deal is not happening on 31st October – The next tory pm will advocate it and if parliament blocks it an election would bring an no deal majority.

  22. A lot of chat on Twitter regarding the Cabinet having turned decisively on May. She could be forced out very quickly…perhaps as early as tonight.

  23. It really feels like the end. Depends if she decides to go tonight or drag on till after polling.

    If it’s a coronation Boris could be PM by Trump’s visit.

  24. No 10 said no statement tonight

  25. They is almost no way a no deal is not happening on 31st October

    You’ve been saying this for the last 18 months and yet nothing has changed – there is no parliamentary majority for a no deal Brexit

    And besides I find it bizarre that Johnson’s opponents are for the once and only time taking him for his word – a mistake surely given hus chequered past

  26. You cannot rule it out but I think the government might revoke a50 before then

  27. Looking like May is finished.
    I think it will be coronation for Boris – can’t see him being stopped and the Brexit chaos will lead to horrendous pressure for all his opponents to all drop out.

  28. May will not resign tonight it seems – and will meet Sir Graham Brady on Friday.

  29. May’s strategy of trying to please everyone has ended up doing precisely the opposite – and i do genuinely feel sorry for her as its quite clear the game’s up and to be fair to her, she just wasnt willing to risk a no deal.

    Its unlikely her successor will have the same reservations

  30. Even if May resigns on Bank Holiday Monday, she’d still be PM ’til September.

    The House has now risen for a fortnight. Then it’s Trump’s State visit and another after that and then an EU Summit.

    Although I fail to understand why Parties always seem to hold postal ballots during July or August.

  31. Lancs.
    The house is sitting tommrow.
    Then it rises for a week.
    If she resigns on Monday I think she would be replaced by recess.

  32. Impossible (legally).

    No real business and most MPs not there as its polling day and then half term.

    Even if a timetable is announced on Friday – after Graham Brady meeting – and no postal ballot of members, it’d still be July.

    But at present it’s mid September with new Leader at Conf: MPs vote ’til 2 go to members.

  33. Just double checked: House returns on Tue 4th June, then the 2 day State visit.

    Business Qs were the main item tomorrow AM, which is why Leadsom said she went (as she would have been announcing a vote on the new Bill in mid June).

  34. I just spotted that the legal challenge – that we already left the EU on 29th March – passed its first hurdle and was apparently the reason for the Cobra meeting (and not Iran as I thought).

    The Govt has now appointed a senior QC, as Jeremy Wright’s argument that if successful would cause “chaos” was dismissed as irrelevant at the first show cause hearing and that lawfulness of the extension was the only test to be considered.

    Whilst I think its unlikely to succeed, apparently many lawyers think it will, in the same way the Gina Millar case did.

    I was surprised to hear Robin Tilbrook could garner £700k in donations for such a challenge though.

  35. May to quit tomorrow – and will be gone by July (I predict earlier- I can see another coronation.)
    Tory membership voting perhaps to Start 10th/11th June to avoid voting during trump’s visit and also on D-day when I am not sure if May and Mourdant are in the country.

  36. I think the Tories will feel the need to have a proper contest and go to the membership (God knows they are pissed off enough as it is). Although agreed that the timing is atrocious.

  37. bm11 – again, not quite.

    The PA say she may announce a date tomorrow, but Sep remains fave for a new Leader & PM.

    But clearly some – esp Boris – want a truncated process.

  38. She will resign as Tory leader on 7th june.

  39. With her replacement by end of July(More likely Mid July unless parliament is extended)

  40. So now let’s all buckle in and enjoy a very bumpy ride, more so the likely no deal than the leadership race which is looking like a procession for Boris.

  41. A No Deal exit has now shortened considerably in the betting and the BBC’s Norman Smith just said it’s chances have doubled.

    I’d still say less than 50% chance but only just, esp given that Parliament isn’t even sitting for most of the remaining time provided between now and Conference.

  42. As per Beth Rigby (Sky), new leader/ PM will be in place by mid July. So a pretty quick process.

  43. 2nd Referendum in 2019 6/1

    No Ref 1/4

    Corbyn next PM 50/1

  44. Amid all the MPs’ tributes to Theresa May, many of them hypocritical and disingenuous, I very strangely find that Tim Farron’s comes closest to my own personal feelings-

    “Theresa May has always frustrated me, and I’ve always liked her – right from when I first met her in the early 90s. She made bad calls on Brexit as she played to her party’s unreasonable right, but that’s for another day. Her party treated her disgracefully shame on them.”

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1131865134463356929

  45. Half of Cons MPs have now declared who they are backing.

    Boris is currently in third place (just) behind Hunt, Gove.

    But with 12 candidates, only 30 MPs put Hunt in the lead at present.

  46. Well you never tire of reminding us that more than half of Tories in parliament voted Remain. If they largely pile in behind Hunt then he’s home & dry to get into the members ballot. However that also means that whoever the other candidate is likely wins, even if it is an airhead like McVey. Hence expect to see leakage from Hunt, Hancock etc to a moderate leaver type…perhaps Gove, but many will wince at him being leader.

  47. Who knows who May want’s. We have had so many reports over the last year of he wanting this person or that person. Gove is probably the most similar to her politically but they of course don’t get on well.

  48. Reports that tonight’s You Gov will show Lib Dems and Brexit Party above Labour and Tory’s

  49. YouGov poll has been confirmed.

    Westminster voting intention:
    LDem: 24% (+6)
    Brex: 22% (+4)
    Con: 19% (-5)
    Lab: 19% (-5)
    Grn: 8% (+2)
    via @YouGov Chgs. w/ 17 May

  50. [Furtively checks the price of the Lib Dems winning Peterborough…]

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