Maidenhead

2015 Result:
Conservative: 35453 (65.8%)
Labour: 6394 (11.9%)
Lib Dem: 5337 (9.9%)
Green: 1915 (3.6%)
UKIP: 4539 (8.4%)
Independent: 162 (0.3%)
Others: 55 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 29059 (54%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Berkshire. The western part of the Windsor and Maidenhead council area and part of the Wokingham council area to the east of Reading.

Main population centres: Maidenhead, TWyford, Bray, Wargrave, Cookham.

Profile: The constituency consists of the town of Maidenhead itself, an affluent town on the Thames with strong high-tech and pharmaceutical industries, but also stretches south-west to include a swathe of countryside right up to the suburbs of Reading. The seat includes the villages of Cookham, Wargrave, Twyford and Bray - now best known as the location of Heston Blumenthal`s restaurant The Fat Duck, named as the best restaurant in the world in 2005.

Politics: Affluent and middle class, politically Maidenhead has been Conservative since it was split off from the equally Conservative Windsor and Maidenhead seat in 1997. In 2001 the majority fell to just over 3,000 and the seat was supposedly one of those where the Liberal Democrats attempted to "decapitate" leading Conservative politicians. In the event the Conservative majority doubled and with beneficial boundaries charges for the Tories in 2005 it is increasingly safe.


Current MP
THERESA MAY (Conservative) Born 1956, Eastbourne. Educated at Holton Park Girls Grammar and Oxford University. Former financial consultant. Merton councillor 1986-1994. Contested North West Durham 1992, Barking 1994 by-election. First elected as MP for Maidenhead in 1997. Shadow education secretary 1999-2001, shadow transport secretary 2001-2002, Chairman of the Conservative party 2002-2004, shadow family secretary 2004-2005, shadow culture secretary 2005, shadow leader of the Commons 2005-2009, shadow work and pensions secretary 2009-2010. Home Secretary since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31937 (59%)
Lab: 3795 (7%)
LDem: 15168 (28%)
UKIP: 1243 (2%)
Oth: 1577 (3%)
MAJ: 16769 (31%)
2005*
Con: 23312 (51%)
Lab: 4144 (9%)
LDem: 17081 (37%)
BNP: 704 (2%)
Oth: 609 (1%)
MAJ: 6231 (14%)
2001
Con: 19506 (45%)
Lab: 6577 (15%)
LDem: 16222 (37%)
UKIP: 741 (2%)
Oth: 272 (1%)
MAJ: 3284 (8%)
1997
Con: 25344 (50%)
Lab: 9205 (18%)
LDem: 13363 (26%)
Oth: 1339 (3%)
MAJ: 11981 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA MAY (Conservative) See above.
CHARLES SMITH (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Solicitor.
ANTHONY HILL (Liberal Democrat) Former headteacher. Contested Maidenhead 2010.
HERBIE CROSSMAN (UKIP) Security consultant. Harrow councillor 1994-1998 for the Liberal Democrats. Contested Harrow West 1997 for the Referendum party, Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election as Independent, Harrow West 2010 for UKIP.
EMILY BLYTH (Green) Musician.
JOE WILCOX (Class War)
IAN TAPLIN (Independent)
Links
Comments - 2,725 Responses on “Maidenhead”
  1. BM is talking out of his rear end on this.

    Nobody wants to take over from May until at least some decisive move has been made over Brexit. Otherwise the new leader becomes public enemy number 1 on their first day in the job. May will only be gone by the party conference in the unlikely event of her deal or another deal passing the commons or her revoking A50 beforehand. All quite unlikely IMO (and this assumes her health holds up and she doesn’t quit of her own volition).

    Very likely there will be a third extension and then crunch time will come in December when Tory MPs are able to hold a new VoNC.

  2. It bounds down to if any of the contenders seriously believe in no deal would be a success or if they all posturing to appeal to a Tory membership that probably does.

  3. I think you’ve answered your own rhetorical question there.

    The only Tory MPs who seriously believe No Deal would be a success are the deranged Francois, Bone and Cash types on the backbenches.

    The cabinet Leavers, Boris and Mogg are all posturing.

  4. By and large, MV3 separated out the bluffers from the true believers. Hence Boris and JRM switching sides.

  5. Not sure about Mogg. I think he might seriously believe in No deal. . Boris is clearly posturing, who knows what he believes and the Cabinet are a world of their own at the moment.

  6. For a bunch who drone on incessantly about the “will of the people”, the no-dealers really ought to confront the fact the no-deal has no democratic legitimacy. Nobody – nobody – on the leave side in 2016 said that no-deal was their preferred outcome.

  7. The Sunday Telegraph is saying Michael Spicer and Archie Hamilton believe Tory Mp’s could change the 1922 committee rules at any time and have another vote and remove May anytime.
    If so she could be gone by the end of the month.

  8. This could be massive. It’s only Mays opposition to no deal that has allowed binding legislation to delay A50 pass. It’s almost guarenteed the next leader will not be as opposed to no deal. Even people like Jeremy Hunt are quite happy to force MPs to vote for the deal days before no deal

  9. To be honest it’s the likes of Hunt that anger me the most. Headbangers gonna headbang, Sure, but at least they really believe in their batshit ideas. The likes of Hunt are prepared to sell the country down the river for personal gain.

    This is a severe structural issue within modern party politics, the need for politicians to pander to a wholly unrepresentative membership. I’d suggest the introduction of open primaries for the party leadership, but of course Donald Trump was selected by open primary…

  10. So remember that poll that showed Labour with a nine-point lead a few days ago? There’s another one backing up the pattern:

    Lab 36
    Con 29
    UKIP 11
    LD 8

    Fair to say that there really has been a major slump in Tory fortunes in the past couple of weeks – for comparison this poll is a worse vote share for the Tories than they managed even in 1997. At this point their only hope may be that they can cannibalize most of the UKIP vote come election time, but they did that back in 2017 and it wasn’t enough as Labour took votes from everywhere else, including Tories and non-voters.

  11. Poll is from Opinium, by the way. So probably more trustworthy than that poll from a company none of us had ever heard of which dropped a few days ago.

  12. Totally agree with PT.

    I always quite liked Hunt but the fact that hes willing to advocate things he doesn’t and never will believe in shows to be a complete and utter tosspot without any principles whatsoever

    People like that aren’t worthy to become PM and none of the people hes trying to attract are that stupid to fall for it anyhow

  13. Note also Javid harping on about his working class background the other day, making a speech supposedly about crime all about him. About as subtle as a brick.

  14. …and of course by implication a dig at Hunt’s wealthy background

  15. And Boris.
    Javid is starting to come across as to desperate for the leadership (through of course no where near as much as Gavin Willamson still tries.)

  16. Reportedly 70% of Tory MPs want Theresa May to stand down.

    Round of applause to the ERG for encouraging MPs to get their letters in before they were ready and losing the resulting VONC, thereby giving her immunity for the rest of 2019.

  17. Though they are trying to change the rules to force a vote of confidence in June. 70% seems high as it would include those on the frontbench that havent resigned yet

    Though Survation have polled tory cllrs and 40% are voting Brexit Party

  18. The article mentions a Rallings and Trasher local elections prediction. Tories predicted to lose between 500-1000 seats

  19. IMO that’s probably on the low side, I expect the Lib Dems to do pretty well in the south and there will be surprise Labour victories as well.

    The geography of the elections and lack of Brexit/UKIP candidates are the main reason this isn’t going to be a 1995 style Tory disaster.

  20. Tory leadership polls showing that a 2016 refrendum brexiter will always win against a converter like Javid or Hunt. Rapidly increases the chance of a genreal election later this year with the tories advocating No deal.

  21. Yes it looks like the membership is determined to go with either Raab or Boris. Reluctantly I think I’d prefer Boris, who at last knows where Calais is.

    “Rapidly increases the chance of a genreal election later this year with the tories advocating No deal.”

    The ideal situation for the Tory right would be for May to revoke, or Remain to win a 2nd referendum, leaving them free to advocate No Deal Brexit with no necessity or ability to deliver it.

    An election this year with the Tories polling low 20s will not happen unless they really can’t avoid it though.

  22. My fear is that Dominic Raab is a class warrior on behalf of the millionaires, and is sharp enough to maybe actually get what he wants. It’s a terrible choice, but I think I’d prefer a bumbling idiot who has less chance of actually enacting his terrible ideas due to his own incompetence. I’ve always thought that, as terrible as Trump is, if he keeled over tomorrow then a President Mike Pence would be worse.

  23. I agree with all that except for the bit about Raab being “sharp”. He is self-evidently a bit dim. He is also quite strongly disliked in his own constituency party which should also set alarm bells ringing about anyone (partly I guess because Esher is a wealthy Remain area).

  24. I know he has said daft things like “I hadn’t realised how important Dover-Calais was”, but I attribute that to being blinded by his own ideology, rather than a genuine idiot in the mould of Nadine Dorries.

  25. Wasn’t sure where to post this, but anyhow…did anyone else have a good laugh at Claire Fox being described as ‘of the left’ today?! ‘Right wing, libertarian battleaxe’ might have been more appropriate. Apart from anything else, it’s very very hard to imagine someone genuinely on the left linking up with Farage…no matter how much they wanted Brexit.

  26. “It’s very hard to imagine anyone on the left linking up with Farage, no matter how much they wanted Brexit.”

    Let me introduce you to this lovely bloke called Geroge Galloway…

  27. On the infamous Brexit fishing boat, Kate Hoey seemed to be linking up with Farage physically as well as in the metaphorical sense….though perhaps Tristan doesn’t class her as on the left.

  28. I am actually surprised she has not defected to the Brexit Party.

  29. ‘On the infamous Brexit fishing boat, Kate Hoey seemed to be linking up with Farage physically as well as in the metaphorical sense’.

    A delightful thought heading into lunch time.

  30. Tristan – libertarians can be on the Left.

    Not just Claire Fox, but most of the Rev Communist PPCs were. They often hosted Living Marxism debates on uni campus. The socialists of the Nellist/Fields/Mahmood variety certainly didn’t get on with them at all.

    Add to them the continuing Liberal Party, RMT and NW branches of the CWU, FBU etc and ex BNP voters – they are all on/from the Left and all Brexiteers and will probably vote for the Brexit Party.

  31. Whether Claire Fox is far left or far right is kind of beside the point. Either way She’s ghastly.

  32. Noms are now closed and Claire Fox is No.1 on the North West list. Her middle name is Regina!

    TV’s Dr David Bull is also on the list. Wasn’t he a Tory PPC that withdrew?

  33. I was about to say that we in the North West had the most columns of parties/Inds (11), until I spotted the 21 in London!

    Extinction Rebellion activists appear to be standing against each other, rather than merely all signing the one nomination paper. It’s a tough one, but the silliest names go to the Animal Welfare Party list.

  34. An Animal Party has mp’s in the Netherlands.

  35. “TV’s Dr David Bull is also on the list. Wasn’t he a Tory PPC that withdrew?

    yes, Brighton Pavillion before 2010 GE

  36. Apparently 12 former MPs are standing. I haven’t spotted them all yet, but I see Neil Carmichael and Roger Casale are standing for Change UK (Eastern region). There’s also a Gummer on their list.

  37. ChangeUK have also Dorrell (West Midlands) and the former Labour MP for Cardiff Central (Wales). Labour have Sion Simon (who is sitting MEP). Tory MEP Nirj Deva who is re-standing in SE was MP for Brentford and Isleworth in 1992-07

  38. And obviously Widdecombe. For Labour also Katy Clark. I hadn’t spotted the other 4 yet

  39. ‘Whether Claire Fox is far left or far right is kind of beside the point. Either way She’s ghastly.’

    She’s just one of the many journalists – think Rod Liddle, Julie Birchill – who were once on the Left – or at least claimed to be – but quickly realised they’d make far more money and gain far more attention by just saying plain controversial, outrageous and mostly Right-wing things

  40. ‘Whether Claire Fox is far left or far right is kind of beside the point. Either way She’s ghastly’

    Too bloody right. Her appearances on the Sky News newspaper review programme get my blood boiling even more than.Isabel Oakeshott’s, and I really can’t stand that snotty little madam.

  41. Ex Tory PPC Simon Marcus seems to be standing for the Brexit Party in London (but way down the list so effectively a paper candidate.)

  42. Many are right wing precisely because of what they witnessed when they were left wing.

    Leo McKinstry, Janet Daley, Sir Bernard Ingham often reference Labour meetings they attended as the turning point.

  43. Tim: I wouldn’t worry about that too much, we’re now beginning to see folk moving the other way, because it turns out you can build a media career on left-wing moonbattery too. In fairness, many of the new breed of lefty provocateurs have always been radicals, but they also include the likes of Aaron Bastani, who once wrote a piece titled “In Praise of Ian Duncan Smith”.

  44. EU election poll opinium 21th April (changes from 9th April)

    Con 14 (-3)
    Labour 28 (-1)
    Brexit 28 (+16)
    LD 7 (-3)
    UKIP 3 (-10)
    SNP 5 (-1)
    PC 1 (-)
    Grn 6 (-)
    CUK 7 (+3)
    Other 1 (-1)

    National voting intention Opinium 21 April

    Lab 33
    Con 26
    BREXIT 17
    LD 6
    UKIP 4
    SNP 5
    PC 1

  45. I had wondered why the figures – given by the BBC, Sky etc – are all different re the number of wards being contested this Thursday.

    Dods even said there were no elections in Mets this week!

    I think the discrepancy may be that 40 wards have by-elections this week on top and some of those councils don’t have elections.

    Plus 6 have now been countermanded due to the deaths of the candidates, including Walkden S ward – although it wasn’t Iain Lindley in case any on here were concerned. Apparently it was his replacement as Tory candidate who passed away.

    HH – I spotted by-elections in both Surrey and Sussex on the list.

  46. The weather forecast for Polling Day this Thursday is cool (11C) and wet for much of England.

  47. Rumours that representatives of the Tories in local government are planning to hold a confidence vote among Tory members in Theresa May’s leadership.

    First straw in the wind – Clwyd South local association held a symbolic vote on the issue yesterday. 88 members voted no confidence and only three supported the Prime Minister.

  48. Just a reminder that Tories were briefing ahead of these elections that they were anticipating a score somewhere in the region of -500.

    This is an absolute drubbing. I anticipate there will be severe grassroots pressure to remove May before the European elections, which are set to be even worse.

  49. May has survived the initial day after the elections – I think she stay until she proposes a deal with Labour – if the majority of the cabinet oppose that then it might be curtains for her. If no deal occurs she will probably stay until after the European Elections.
    Corbyn is itching to pass a deal but has his own Shadow cabinet, backbench and Members opposition. His biggest problem if he helped pass a deal is probably if someone resigns from the shadow team and launches a bid to challenge him as leader over passing a Brexit deal. It’s hard to see several shadow cabinet ministers and shadow ministers voting for any deal without a referendum due to constituency pressures (The Green and Lib Dem rise will scare them.)

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