Maidenhead

2015 Result:
Conservative: 35453 (65.8%)
Labour: 6394 (11.9%)
Lib Dem: 5337 (9.9%)
Green: 1915 (3.6%)
UKIP: 4539 (8.4%)
Independent: 162 (0.3%)
Others: 55 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 29059 (54%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Berkshire. The western part of the Windsor and Maidenhead council area and part of the Wokingham council area to the east of Reading.

Main population centres: Maidenhead, TWyford, Bray, Wargrave, Cookham.

Profile: The constituency consists of the town of Maidenhead itself, an affluent town on the Thames with strong high-tech and pharmaceutical industries, but also stretches south-west to include a swathe of countryside right up to the suburbs of Reading. The seat includes the villages of Cookham, Wargrave, Twyford and Bray - now best known as the location of Heston Blumenthal`s restaurant The Fat Duck, named as the best restaurant in the world in 2005.

Politics: Affluent and middle class, politically Maidenhead has been Conservative since it was split off from the equally Conservative Windsor and Maidenhead seat in 1997. In 2001 the majority fell to just over 3,000 and the seat was supposedly one of those where the Liberal Democrats attempted to "decapitate" leading Conservative politicians. In the event the Conservative majority doubled and with beneficial boundaries charges for the Tories in 2005 it is increasingly safe.


Current MP
THERESA MAY (Conservative) Born 1956, Eastbourne. Educated at Holton Park Girls Grammar and Oxford University. Former financial consultant. Merton councillor 1986-1994. Contested North West Durham 1992, Barking 1994 by-election. First elected as MP for Maidenhead in 1997. Shadow education secretary 1999-2001, shadow transport secretary 2001-2002, Chairman of the Conservative party 2002-2004, shadow family secretary 2004-2005, shadow culture secretary 2005, shadow leader of the Commons 2005-2009, shadow work and pensions secretary 2009-2010. Home Secretary since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31937 (59%)
Lab: 3795 (7%)
LDem: 15168 (28%)
UKIP: 1243 (2%)
Oth: 1577 (3%)
MAJ: 16769 (31%)
2005*
Con: 23312 (51%)
Lab: 4144 (9%)
LDem: 17081 (37%)
BNP: 704 (2%)
Oth: 609 (1%)
MAJ: 6231 (14%)
2001
Con: 19506 (45%)
Lab: 6577 (15%)
LDem: 16222 (37%)
UKIP: 741 (2%)
Oth: 272 (1%)
MAJ: 3284 (8%)
1997
Con: 25344 (50%)
Lab: 9205 (18%)
LDem: 13363 (26%)
Oth: 1339 (3%)
MAJ: 11981 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA MAY (Conservative) See above.
CHARLES SMITH (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Solicitor.
ANTHONY HILL (Liberal Democrat) Former headteacher. Contested Maidenhead 2010.
HERBIE CROSSMAN (UKIP) Security consultant. Harrow councillor 1994-1998 for the Liberal Democrats. Contested Harrow West 1997 for the Referendum party, Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election as Independent, Harrow West 2010 for UKIP.
EMILY BLYTH (Green) Musician.
JOE WILCOX (Class War)
IAN TAPLIN (Independent)
Links
Comments - 2,732 Responses on “Maidenhead”
  1. Tristan: Baker’s not even top five. There’s Nadine Dorries, Andrea Jenkyns, Chris Williamson…

  2. How could I forget Nadine. Ms Jenkyns is a vacuous abyss of nothingness but not truly nutty. Williamson is both batshit.and kind of terrifying.

  3. Rumors of a statement from May today is spreading. Been denied so far by N.10 but they have history of denial until ready.
    If there is a statement then it could be about the new Cooper/Lewtin bill or an election.

  4. Most of her statements are pretty content-free. I wouldn’t get too excited if I were you.

  5. Who knows. The cabinet has been meeting since 9.30 (with only short breaks) and has not yet finished. Who knows what has been discussed and decided.

  6. One wonders what’s happened to Bexiter Blunt as he was once regarded on the far left of the Tory party – and was recognised as one of the most liberal justice ministers, the post he held before retiring to the back benches

    Its seems to have coincided with his revelation that he was gay which i understand was a big a shock to his personal friends as his tory-voting constituents

  7. Statement coming soon. Cabinet (Bar Penny Mourdant who was allowed to go out and and give a talk to students.) have been kept in N.10 without phones. Crest will be on and only hint (from the Telegraph) is May might soften her red lines but not on free movement.

  8. May’s statement was basically an admission that her deal will never pass on mostly tory votes so she will ask Corbyn and probably go to a customs union.
    Will there be resignations?

  9. I don’t see how the likes of Leadsom and Fox could stick around after this, but they probably will.

  10. Who knows. No resignations expected at the moment.

  11. Reports that the next tory leadership election may see 4 rather than 2 on the membership ballot. If so Boris is right back in the game.
    Lots of predictions that unless they resign within the next 24 hours Javid, Hunt and the cabinet have killed their chances.

  12. Corbyn gets the blame either way (is the cunning plan theory).

    Or the pledge to be bound by indicative votes gets her deal over the line this week.

  13. TJ: Blunt is pretty unclubbable. He’s a Thatcherite with Corbynista foreign policy. He’s the only Tory MP to oppose Trident, and flexed his libertarian muscles when his personal intervention in a debate on drugs kept poppers legal. You never quite know what he’s going to do next, he’s the sort of person who’d bring down the government on a whim.

  14. Oops, posted on the wrong thread. Oh well, point still stands.

  15. Minsters on Resignation watch.
    Chris Heaton Harris. Jake Berry, Ben Wallace.

  16. True. “Crispin Blunt rhymes with it for a reason” was said by an MP at Conference.

    Jake Berry is the Wet Freemason who is bestmates with Boris.

  17. Yesterday a ConHome editorial wrote that “May is fast heading for the slaughterhouse”. I like the phrase but am not sure I agree. If it becomes clear that her two most likely successors are Boris and Corbyn she could be frozen in place for some time yet.

  18. Berry doesnt sound very wet given he’s resigning over Brexit not being hard enough and is a cheerleader for ultra-Tory Boris Johnson

    Blunt’s all over the place politically – staunchly Eurosceptic, very partisan, socially liberal and ecomically libertarian – although its worth remembering he resigned from Duncan Smith’s ahadow cabinet because he felt it was too right wing – which is odd considering some of those members – Letwin, Grieve, NormN

  19. Jake Berry has not resigned yet.
    May set to announce replacement for all the resigned ministers shortly.

  20. Talks with Labour have hit a big stumbling block.
    Is May going to push ahead with major compromises or decide to either resign and allow her successor to handle no deal/ managed no deal etc.

  21. Or she might take a chance on general election. But the earliest she can now have one is the 23rd May, so either runs on no deal 30th June platform or has the EU elections.

  22. Seems to me that Brexit will be delayed and delayed. And ofc we’ll take part in EU elections. Ultimately, many months down the line, we’ll probably have another Referendum sometime next year. It’s something that a lot of Leavers thought would transpire since May’s deal was unveiled in November.

    But all this was foreseeable, earlier, once the High Court and then the Supreme Crt had removed the right of the Executive to implement Brexit through Royal Prerogative.

    A terrible abrogation of a fair, democratic exercise which resulted in the biggest ever mandate in the UK.

  23. Fascinating study released today that shows the majority of people want a strongman(Or strongwomen) leader. More importantly people want one that is willing to disobey parliament.

  24. Oh great!

  25. The executive of the 1922 committee have been invited to N.10

  26. Fascinating study released today that shows the majority of people want a strongman

    It’s not really fascinating though is it

    Just more evidence that there’s a higher than thought of percentage of out and out morons living amongst us – something the Brexit vote already clarified

    Just another reason as to why we should never hold a referendum ever again

  27. Tim Jones: useful.corrective to a scare story based on dodgy polling:

    https://medium.com/@nick.barlow/does-britain-really-crave-a-strong-leader-ec6d668ac7d5

  28. Nice one Poll – I’ll enjoy reading that

  29. Anywhere but Westminster on the mood in the Tory heartlands:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2019/apr/09/brexit-breakdown-affluence-decay-and-fury-in-the-tory-heartlands-video

    The thing that struck me: one vox pop lamenting the increase in homelessness followed by another moaning about a new housing development. I wonder – do you think these two things might possibly be related?

  30. Extension offered to 31st October after Macron blocks a year long extension.
    Are we heading for a Halloween no deal? Looks plausible.

  31. Most commentators hinting how it probably makes no deal more likely.
    I have made a final decison – I can;t see it ending anyway but an eventual no deal or revocation.

  32. And with a new tory leader only going to have success in being elected by backing a no deal platform the odds are in favour for No Deal.

  33. The thing is I’m not sure Theresa May will let anyone succeed her until after we’ve actually left, if only because she wants to prevent us leaving with no deal.

    Her next hurdle is the upcoming local and (gulp) European elections – she’ll need some okay results or the men in grey coats may come for her. I know we had that nine-point lead for Labour in a recent poll but I’m sceptical the Tories are that far behind when they actually managed a small swing towards them in Newport.

  34. Though the latest YouGov poll for Wales shows a 5% swing to the Tories. Incomparison their latest GB poll shows a .75% swing to Labour. Might suggest their is a swing to Labour in England masked by a larger swing to the Tories in Wales

  35. She will also have to avoid the potential for protests against not leaving yet becoming toxic.

  36. Leaving will be more toxic than not leaving. Which is why we haven’t left yet and will not do so in the foreseeable future. Told you that all your “we are definitely heading for No Deal” the last few months was horseshit. Brexit is dead.

  37. Not sure about that. Think they is more remainers who have accepted the result than leavers who don’t care if we end up staying.

  38. OK fancy a bet that A50 won’t be extended again in October?

    IMO there will be delay after delay until the average joe just wants to forget the whole thing.

  39. Who knows. I think a new Tory leader elected on a no deal basis would probably be willing to drive over the cliff but parliament would be formidable obstacle.

  40. If I may say so, you constantly make the mistake of getting bogged down in technicalities of the process, and believing empty posturing, rather than thinking more laterally about the people involved and their thinking (a mistake shared by much of the media as well).

    In reality the EU is a master at bending rules when it wants to.

    The EU doesn’t want No Deal and I don’t see that changing despite the odd posturing from Macron etc. In fact having the UK on the naughty step while still paying subs is pretty ideal for them. If the EU don’t want No Deal it gives parliament the power to prevent No Deal from the UK side, courtesy of the various parliamentary votes in recent weeks.

    Even if Mark Francois were to become PM and try to drive off the cliff he won’t be able to unless a majority in parliament agree and that’s inconceivable.

  41. I agree with HH on the reality.

    Except the final sentence is untrue: a PM has that prerogative power. Indeed it’s how May was allowed to agree the extension without Parliament having any vote.

    So if a Brexiteer became Leader, no deal would be very likely.

    Incidentally, no idea why some in the media think 6 months is such a long time. In fact, it’s been 4 months since MV1 was meant to take place and Parliament is no in recess ’til after Easter and isn’t likely to sit in July or August either.

    I think an MP remarked that it still only leaves 40 sitting days ’til Conference season. So a decision needs to be made in May ideally.

  42. Parliament will sit in July. It tend to break up Mid July and return in Early September.

  43. This is worrying…I agree with Lancs on something else.

    Six months is a absolutely nothing….no idea why some people are losing their shit over it. My main concern actually is that it’s nowhere near long enough.

  44. Yes the MPs standard 3 month summer holiday will cover half the extension. I do not expect to have made any further progress by October.

  45. Mp’s take 6 weeks or so off. Then usually come back for two weeks than a month conference break. They haven had a three months break since the Blair era I think.

  46. Splitting hairs a bit there, it’s still basically true that nothing is likely to happen between July and the end of the party conferences, which is 3 months. And what a Tory Party Conference it promises to be, right ahead of Cliff Edge III.

    If progress hasn’t been made before the summer recess May will be back begging again in October.

  47. Broke: stockpiling food ahead of Brexit

    Woke: stockpiling popcorn ahead of party conference season

  48. There will be a lot of people gaining weight this summer munching through stockpiled food before the best before date. It was always a pretty daft concern and has wasted a lot of money (albeit boosted GDP a bit in the short term).

    The Tory party conference looks like being a complete horror show. I wonder if May will dance up to the podium to this year?

  49. May will probably be gone by October. I suspect post local elections and European elections the cabinet will make the moves to remove her.
    In which case the Tory part conference will be a pro no deal fest with PM Johnson/Raab/Javid/Hunt/Hancock (or someone else) rousing the audience in a pro no deal spech.

  50. Can’t see Hancock or Javid ever giving such a speech, no matter how ambitious they are.

    Your insistence on No Deal still being the most likely outcome has been rather undermined by the news today that 6,000 civil servants have been stood down from No Deal planning.

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