Maidenhead

2015 Result:
Conservative: 35453 (65.8%)
Labour: 6394 (11.9%)
Lib Dem: 5337 (9.9%)
Green: 1915 (3.6%)
UKIP: 4539 (8.4%)
Independent: 162 (0.3%)
Others: 55 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 29059 (54%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Berkshire. The western part of the Windsor and Maidenhead council area and part of the Wokingham council area to the east of Reading.

Main population centres: Maidenhead, TWyford, Bray, Wargrave, Cookham.

Profile: The constituency consists of the town of Maidenhead itself, an affluent town on the Thames with strong high-tech and pharmaceutical industries, but also stretches south-west to include a swathe of countryside right up to the suburbs of Reading. The seat includes the villages of Cookham, Wargrave, Twyford and Bray - now best known as the location of Heston Blumenthal`s restaurant The Fat Duck, named as the best restaurant in the world in 2005.

Politics: Affluent and middle class, politically Maidenhead has been Conservative since it was split off from the equally Conservative Windsor and Maidenhead seat in 1997. In 2001 the majority fell to just over 3,000 and the seat was supposedly one of those where the Liberal Democrats attempted to "decapitate" leading Conservative politicians. In the event the Conservative majority doubled and with beneficial boundaries charges for the Tories in 2005 it is increasingly safe.


Current MP
THERESA MAY (Conservative) Born 1956, Eastbourne. Educated at Holton Park Girls Grammar and Oxford University. Former financial consultant. Merton councillor 1986-1994. Contested North West Durham 1992, Barking 1994 by-election. First elected as MP for Maidenhead in 1997. Shadow education secretary 1999-2001, shadow transport secretary 2001-2002, Chairman of the Conservative party 2002-2004, shadow family secretary 2004-2005, shadow culture secretary 2005, shadow leader of the Commons 2005-2009, shadow work and pensions secretary 2009-2010. Home Secretary since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31937 (59%)
Lab: 3795 (7%)
LDem: 15168 (28%)
UKIP: 1243 (2%)
Oth: 1577 (3%)
MAJ: 16769 (31%)
2005*
Con: 23312 (51%)
Lab: 4144 (9%)
LDem: 17081 (37%)
BNP: 704 (2%)
Oth: 609 (1%)
MAJ: 6231 (14%)
2001
Con: 19506 (45%)
Lab: 6577 (15%)
LDem: 16222 (37%)
UKIP: 741 (2%)
Oth: 272 (1%)
MAJ: 3284 (8%)
1997
Con: 25344 (50%)
Lab: 9205 (18%)
LDem: 13363 (26%)
Oth: 1339 (3%)
MAJ: 11981 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA MAY (Conservative) See above.
CHARLES SMITH (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Solicitor.
ANTHONY HILL (Liberal Democrat) Former headteacher. Contested Maidenhead 2010.
HERBIE CROSSMAN (UKIP) Security consultant. Harrow councillor 1994-1998 for the Liberal Democrats. Contested Harrow West 1997 for the Referendum party, Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election as Independent, Harrow West 2010 for UKIP.
EMILY BLYTH (Green) Musician.
JOE WILCOX (Class War)
IAN TAPLIN (Independent)
Links
Comments - 2,731 Responses on “Maidenhead”
  1. Your aunt is being complacent.

    Corbyn won’t think twice about socking it to wealthy pensioners, egged on by young activists with big axes to grind. Labour has already made noises about nationalising private pension funds and clobbering the asset rich with wealth taxes and land value tax. Private pensions are far from secure in any case, millions of people have lost them over the years due to bankruptcies etc.

  2. wouldn’t a wealth tax be on the top rate of income tax?

    a land value tax would replace council tax & business rates, obviously not many pensioners pay business rates but unless you are entitled to single occupancy or the local council tax reduction scheme you will still have to pay council tax even without an income and even if you move to a smaller property because the banding and valuations are so out of date.

  3. Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Sir Edward Leigh, Caroline Johnson and Andrew Murrison have all announced their backing May’s deal.

  4. The government will still lose this vote heavily, but it won’t be by 200+ votes as some have speculated.

  5. Mrs May to say tomorrow No brexit is now more likely than No Deal during a speech in Stoke.

  6. N.10 are not ruling out May quitting tommrow night when she loses the vote.

  7. She looked pretty defeated today.

  8. There are never as many rebels as announce ahead of time they will rebel. Whips gonna whip.

  9. To an extent- with the vote likely to be lost no matter what whipping becomes harder. When it is on a knife edge whipping is more likely to be effective.

  10. Currently I’m predicting the margin to be about 150. I’d be very surprised if the government lost by more than 200 or less than 100.

  11. My sweepstake is 125 but @ElectionMapsUK have 207 and they were 10 off the result in the no confidence ballot

  12. May lost by 230

  13. May’s deal defeated by 230 votes. Ouch!

  14. Crikey.

    Egg on face for me, but egg on face times a million for Theresa May.

  15. The DUP and Lady Hermon have confirmed they’ll support the Government in the Confidence vote tomorrow.

  16. Paul Flynn must be very seriously ill – the only MP who missed voting. Even Fiona Onasanya turned up.
    Only Labour MP’s to vote in Favour were Ian Austin, Kevin Barron and John Mann and former Labour Mp Frank Field. All the other ex labour Mp’s voted no.
    Caroline Flint voted against the deal – big surprise.

  17. Also the Pound fell massively but then rose back up and went higher due to the No confidence vote being seen as uniting the Tories. Not sure that will stop no deal.

  18. Thoughts with Paul Flynn, who I fear may not be long for this world.

    The following pro-EU Tories also voted against:

    Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Damian Collins, Michael Fallon, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Robert Halfon, Greg Hands, Jo Johnson, Johnny Mercer, Grant Shapps, Anna Soubry, Hugo Swire, Sarah Wollaston.

    Plus a couple like John Lamont (Berwickshire) and Giles Watling (Clacton) who were not MPs at the time of the referendum, but I think were remainers. Plus Tracey Crouch who was officially undeclared but most people think was a closet remainer. Plus a possibly a few obscure backbenchers I may have missed.

  19. Johnny Mercer has been getting close to Boris in recent months.

  20. Thought Boris preferred blondes.

  21. Paul Flynn announced in October his intention to stand down asap.

    He’s been bed ridden for almost 6 months.

  22. He did say he was hanging on to try and vote the government down before quitting.

  23. One thought that occurs to me is that the defeat yesterday was so great that even if the 2017 election had gone entirely to plan for May, she still wouldn’t have been able to get her deal through the Commons.

    (Though I guess the meaningful vote amendment would never have passed, so she might not have had to.)

  24. That depends on the size of her maj. Had she got 150 maj in the GE an 118 rebellion wouldn’t have stopped it

  25. All the 118 rebels count twice, though. (Once for not voting with the government, once for voting against it.) So May would have needed a majority of at least 237, and even that’s assuming that none of those extra MPs rebelled.

  26. ‘The following pro-EU Tories also voted against:

    Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Damian Collins, Michael Fallon, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Robert Halfon, Greg Hands, Jo Johnson, Johnny Mercer, Grant Shapps, Anna Soubry, Hugo Swire, Sarah Wollaston.’

    I’m not sure that description is quite right

    Both Collins and Shapps said they couldn’t back May’s deal for the same reason the hardcore Brexiteers couldn’t – the back stop – although the fact both come from WWC pro-Leave constituencies has to be factored in

    And Hugo Swire’s hardly pro-EU – Cameron had to offer him knighthood to secure his Remain vote – and Mercer has swing hugely to the Right since his utterly bizarre interview in October

  27. Mercer has an extremely Leave seat which is naturally a Labour heartland. His actions should be judged through that prism. Swire and Collins also represent very Leave seats, though safe electorally they may have been at risk of deselection.

    I do think people underestimate how much self-interest underpins MP voting behaviour.

  28. 100% agree. Perceived Electorate, local party and national party interests were all very big yesterday.

  29. The thing is, over the past three years deselection threats in both major parties have been consistently shown to be paper tigers. Has anyone actually been deselected for supporting or opposing certain policies?

  30. ‘One thought that occurs to me is that the defeat yesterday was so great that even if the 2017 election had gone entirely to plan for May, she still wouldn’t have been able to get her deal through the Commons’.
    I think had May had won her predicted landslide (100+ seat majority) in 2017, the momentum would have definitely been with the hard Brexiteers/ ERG and the eventual withdrawal agreement would have looked rather different.

  31. ‘Has anyone actually been deselected for supporting or opposing certain policies?’

    Nowadays its mainly personal disagreements that lead to de-selections.

    If boles gets the boot from his Eurosceptic local party he’ll be the first for policy reasons since Sir Anthony Meyer

  32. “I think had May had won her predicted landslide (100+ seat majority) in 2017, the momentum would have definitely been with the hard Brexiteers/ ERG and the eventual withdrawal agreement would have looked rather different.”

    That’s a no-brainer. The 50 or 100 more Tory MPs, mostly newly-selected, would have been overwhelmingly Leave-backing. However at least we might have ended up with an organised hard Brexit rather than the chaotic No Deal it looks like we might be headed for now.

  33. It’s likely that all of the few options we have left (Revoke, Peoples Vote, No Deal) will ultimately destroy the Conservative party as we know it.

    I can’t help chuckling at the memory of Maxim Parr Reid’s posts two years ago that the Labour party would be destroyed and there would be a thousand year Tory reich thereafter. I bet he feels like a right tit now, not just for his predictions but for voting to vapourise his own generation’s future. Certainly there’s no political future in the Conservative party for the aspiring 20something Tory Boy today.

  34. “Nowadays its mainly personal disagreements that lead to de-selections.

    If boles gets the boot from his Eurosceptic local party he’ll be the first for policy reasons since Sir Anthony Meyer”

    Historically you were more likely to be deselected for being disloyal to the leadership…in today’s Tory party the deselection threats are made for those who are loyal!

    Tim’s right in what he says but the past may not be a good guide to the future on this. I can’t see how the ERG and the Soames wing of the Tory party can stay together in the same party for much longer.

  35. ‘I bet he feels like a right tit now’

    I highly doubt it. Whatever Maxim’s strengths were, humility and self awareness were not among them. Terrifyingly, I think he may actually be more talented than some of the jokers, chancers and clowns we currently have in Parliament.

  36. I always felt sorry for MPR.

  37. @Hemmelig

    Surely no deal will still unite the Conservative party. The hard Brexit wing has been very vocal and the Tories have held solidly at 40% for a while now.

    Surely revocation of article 50 would destroy the Conservative party which is why it is 100% certain not to happen.

  38. We would not exit without a deal simply to keep the Tory Party together

  39. Logically we could see the return of third-party politics the Right (Tory, UKIP, dup) the Left (Corbynite Labour, Green, SNP, St, PC) And the new centre (anti brexit liberal Tories, centrist anti -Cornyn Labour Mps a the Lib Dems)

    From my point of view it would be nice to actually have something to support for the first time in years

    Can’t see it happening but it would be nice if it did

  40. I find Peter’s assertion up thread staggering. If the Tory party was to advocate No deal plenty of their Mps would leave the party all together and the country will be so f**** that we are unlikely to see another Tory government elected for 20-30 years

  41. We’ve been talking about a third party for 3 years. Dont think its anymore likely. Personally I’m quite happy with that. The third party of British politics ran my local council for most my life and were pretty bad at it

  42. “Surely no deal will still unite the Conservative party. The hard Brexit wing has been very vocal and the Tories have held solidly at 40% for a while now.

    Surely revocation of article 50 would destroy the Conservative party which is why it is 100% certain not to happen.”

    Well I suppose it’s possible for a party to be destroyed whist the remaining rump of it remains united. No Deal Brexit will destroy the Tory party’s chances of being in government for 20 years and perhaps for ever. I don’t believe the Tories would get 40% in an election held tomorrow, whatever the polls say, and post a chaotic Brexit and with a faintly electable Labour leader they could conceivably be down to 20%. As Tim rightly says, masses of MPs, if not activists, would leave, and in time many would also lose their seats.

    It’s plausible that the ERG wing will join up with the sensible remnants of UKIP at some point and morph into a mainstream nationalist right wing party, leaving the Tories to shrivel into insignificance. There seems little future for a queen-and-country unionist Conservative party any more.

    Myself I have voted Conservative in all general elections from 1997 to 2017 inclusive (though missed 2005 due to living abroad). I am friendly with my local MP and will vote for him if he stands again on a personal basis. However in the highly likely instance that he stands down I’ve decided I will abstain from voting until a plausible alternative (Lib Dem, Labour, other party) appeals to me. Since the Brexit vote I’ve already refused to turn out in any local elections for the Conservatives and that will continue. I wonder how many people like me there will be, on both sides of the Brexit debate. The appalling parliamentary display yesterday was absolutely the final straw for me.

  43. Just to add….to say that revoking Article 50 is “100% certain not to happen” is just plain daft. It is one of only two realistic options now and many clever people, especially in the financial markets, think it’s more likely than No Deal, see how the pound bounced up yesterday. Sadly I don’t happen to agree with them.

  44. I also found Peter’s comments rather confusing (and I knew Tim and HH would be straight in to contradict, quite rightly in my opinion). Look, if it was that easy to just push for a hard Brexit (No Deal) and be done with it, May and her advisors would have done it already. She’s not an all time great PM, but she isn’t stupid. The reality is that it would tear the Tories to shreds and would be an almighty balls up all round for Britain. She hasn’t done it because she has concluded that No Deal would be so cataclysmic that it isn’t even worth considering.

  45. I do think Peter’s probably correct that revoking A50 would probably be worse for the Tory party than No Deal. But only in the sense that dying of a sudden heart attack is preferable to dying after a long battle against cancer. Under both scenarios I think the Tories will be finished as a party of government for a couple of decades – it will be the Winter of Discontent / Black Wednesday moment de notre jours. Their best hope of limping along in power as the least worst alternative to Corbynite Labour is a soft Chequers or Norway Brexit and IMO that now seems very unlikely.

    May is stubborn about maintaining her red lines, especially on immigration, and on “delivering on the vote to leave”. She has categorically ruled out a second referendum or revoking / extending A50 so many times and so vocally I agree she would have to resign for any of these to happen. She is a Tory partisan through and through and will do anything to prevent the party splitting.

    No Deal will be a boost for Corbyn because it will make the Tories unelectable for a long period of time and he will be able to blame the economic crash caused by Corbynomics on Brexit for many years into the future. He will be able to nationalise and subsidise without EU rules getting in the way. No Deal happening on May’s watch, so the Tories get the blame, is his ideal outcome. We can read his refusal to enter negotiations with May on Brexit in this light (of course he will set pre-conditions that it is impossible for May to meet).

    For these reasons I now think No Deal is becoming quite a likely outcome despite only a minority of politicians and the public supporting it. I do congratulate BM11 for spotting this before most of the rest of us did.

  46. Strange, I feel no-deal has become much more unlikely recently, with opposition parties now making removing the threat of no-deal a precondition for talks. Theresa May will have to give in to this request or face weekly no-confidence motions.

    I feel we have got beyond “May’s deal or no deal”. That is encouraging.

  47. But for that to happen, somebody will have to propose either revoking A50 or a second referendum. As Peter says, that somebody will not be Theresa May. How will she be got rid of in a matter of weeks when she has just survived two votes of confidence, the first of which makes her unchallengeable as Tory leader until December 2019?

    And that person will have to get the proposal through the commons. I highly doubt there is a majority for revoking A50 in the commons as too many MPs backing it fear for losing their seats or being deselected. A second referendum also isn’t guaranteed to get through the commons and would require both a major extension of A50 and the commons to agree on the question and the options on the ballot paper. When you look into the mechanics of avoiding No Deal it starts to look quite tricky.

  48. “with opposition parties now making removing the threat of no-deal a precondition for talks.”

    That is designed by Corbyn to make talks impossible. Of course No Deal can’t be taken off the table. It is the default outcome if parliament can’t agree an alternative.

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