Maidenhead

2015 Result:
Conservative: 35453 (65.8%)
Labour: 6394 (11.9%)
Lib Dem: 5337 (9.9%)
Green: 1915 (3.6%)
UKIP: 4539 (8.4%)
Independent: 162 (0.3%)
Others: 55 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 29059 (54%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Berkshire. The western part of the Windsor and Maidenhead council area and part of the Wokingham council area to the east of Reading.

Main population centres: Maidenhead, TWyford, Bray, Wargrave, Cookham.

Profile: The constituency consists of the town of Maidenhead itself, an affluent town on the Thames with strong high-tech and pharmaceutical industries, but also stretches south-west to include a swathe of countryside right up to the suburbs of Reading. The seat includes the villages of Cookham, Wargrave, Twyford and Bray - now best known as the location of Heston Blumenthal`s restaurant The Fat Duck, named as the best restaurant in the world in 2005.

Politics: Affluent and middle class, politically Maidenhead has been Conservative since it was split off from the equally Conservative Windsor and Maidenhead seat in 1997. In 2001 the majority fell to just over 3,000 and the seat was supposedly one of those where the Liberal Democrats attempted to "decapitate" leading Conservative politicians. In the event the Conservative majority doubled and with beneficial boundaries charges for the Tories in 2005 it is increasingly safe.


Current MP
THERESA MAY (Conservative) Born 1956, Eastbourne. Educated at Holton Park Girls Grammar and Oxford University. Former financial consultant. Merton councillor 1986-1994. Contested North West Durham 1992, Barking 1994 by-election. First elected as MP for Maidenhead in 1997. Shadow education secretary 1999-2001, shadow transport secretary 2001-2002, Chairman of the Conservative party 2002-2004, shadow family secretary 2004-2005, shadow culture secretary 2005, shadow leader of the Commons 2005-2009, shadow work and pensions secretary 2009-2010. Home Secretary since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31937 (59%)
Lab: 3795 (7%)
LDem: 15168 (28%)
UKIP: 1243 (2%)
Oth: 1577 (3%)
MAJ: 16769 (31%)
2005*
Con: 23312 (51%)
Lab: 4144 (9%)
LDem: 17081 (37%)
BNP: 704 (2%)
Oth: 609 (1%)
MAJ: 6231 (14%)
2001
Con: 19506 (45%)
Lab: 6577 (15%)
LDem: 16222 (37%)
UKIP: 741 (2%)
Oth: 272 (1%)
MAJ: 3284 (8%)
1997
Con: 25344 (50%)
Lab: 9205 (18%)
LDem: 13363 (26%)
Oth: 1339 (3%)
MAJ: 11981 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA MAY (Conservative) See above.
CHARLES SMITH (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Solicitor.
ANTHONY HILL (Liberal Democrat) Former headteacher. Contested Maidenhead 2010.
HERBIE CROSSMAN (UKIP) Security consultant. Harrow councillor 1994-1998 for the Liberal Democrats. Contested Harrow West 1997 for the Referendum party, Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election as Independent, Harrow West 2010 for UKIP.
EMILY BLYTH (Green) Musician.
JOE WILCOX (Class War)
IAN TAPLIN (Independent)
Links
Comments - 2,222 Responses on “Maidenhead”
  1. Tim J – whilst I agree with you re McVey, it isn’t new.

    Expenses and directorships’ trougher Yeo was among five unremarkable wealthy Wets who were all talked up re future Leaders during the 2000s.

  2. I too would like to think no-deal won’t happen, but unfortunately it is not in the interests of May-deal opponents of either flavour to support her call to find a way of avoiding it. The ERG, of course, genuinely aren’t afraid of it; but the more insidious threat comes from the remainers, who are currently arguing, correctly, that the threat of no-deal is a trap to get people to support May’s deal, which is still bad for the UK, while being unable to suggest an alternative beyond a second referendum that probably wouldn’t pass the Commons, and which we don’t have time to organise. Unless these people either relent at the last minute or find an alternative that can command a majority of the house, we’re heading for disaster.

  3. ‘Yeo was among five unremarkable wealthy Wets who were all talked up re future Leaders during the 2000s.’

    You’re right

    Yeo wasn’t just unremarkable but he had what many Tories would regard as an amoral personal life and already been sacked as a result of the back to basics scandal in 1993 – he fathered an illegitimate child I think – just one of the scandals he was invoolced in during his tenure as an MP

    His record in office (he had been a junior mimister) and as an MP was equally unremarkable

  4. Suvation poll of 862 Conservative councilors has the following results
    First preference
    Johnson 142
    Rabb 63
    Javid 150
    Hunt 89
    Gove 66
    Rudd 87
    Davis 81
    Leadsom 19
    Ress- Moog 52
    Mcvey 8
    Moudant 11

    Second round between Javid and Johnson
    Javid 278
    Johnson 217
    Hunt supporters overhwelmingly perfer Javid to Johsnon

  5. “Rabb 63”

    Who’s Rabb? Is it Rab C Nesbitt? Probably couldn’t do a worse job.

    Seriously though you should have ordered the list. Even though you haven’t it’s quite plain to see that it’s very fragmented. Not sure what use polling councillors is though, they are a drop in the ocean among 100,000 or so members and all will have the same say in a vote.

  6. What is everyone prediction for least likely thing that will actually happen in 2019. Mine is that the Death Penalty gets voted on in the Commons. Just have a feeling the next Tory Leader will be someone who starts to leave the ECHR and reintroduce it. Hope I am wrong through.

  7. Even amongst Tory Mps the death penalty is an issue with minority support and many on the Right like Andrew Bridgen, Douglas Carswell and Liam Fox tend to be just as opposed to it as those on the Left.

    I find it hard to conceive that any future parliament would support the reintroduction of capital punishment

  8. So this recent YouGov poll caught the eye:

    Con 40 (-1)
    Lab 34 (-5)
    LD 10 (+3)
    Green 4
    UKIP 4

    Normally I’d say this was just an outlier on the limits of the MOE… but this was not a normal poll, this was a poll of 25,000 people. So the MOE on such a poll is correspondingly much smaller.

    Either the poll had a deeply flawed methodology, or Labour is in a really bad spot. (Though it’s all relative, it’s still a much better position for them than this time two years ago.)

  9. Not sure MoE does get smaller if you have a larger poll. Its true the otherway round but just increasing your sample doesn’t eliminate MoE.

    It’s more likely sample bias. Their methods are very similar to other pollsters so it must be the sample itself

  10. I really can’t see the death penalty being voted on. What’s the point? The vast majority of MPs (on both the left and right- as Tim points out) are completely against it. In fact, the only MP I’ve heard discussing the issue in the last few years is Priti Patel- enough to put anyone off.

  11. Sir John Hayes asked a written Parliamentary question about it in November. He asked the DOJ to consider a study into its merits. Edward Argar firmly opposed it in his written answer back.

  12. “Just have a feeling the next Tory Leader will be someone who starts to leave the ECHR and reintroduce it. Hope I am wrong through.”

    Shortly after the 1983 election, which yielded a Tory landslide majority of over 140, a backbench bill to reintroduce the death penalty was defeated, the same in the 1987-92 parliament where the Tory majority was almost 100.

    If there weren’t enough Tory MPs to back hanging in the Thatcher landslide governments of the 1980s there certainly would not be in today’s minority government conditions. None of the serious leadership candidates support it (I don’t rate Patel or JRM as serious) and virtually nobody in the cabinet…perhaps nobody at all.

    In many ways hanging was, in the 1970s and 1980s, the same issue for the Tories that the EU is today. It was exceptionally hard for Tory candidates to be selected unless they claimed to favour re-introducing hanging. The hangers and floggers were livid when they found that many of the new MPs in 1983 and 1987 had lied and actually (phew) voted against.

  13. ‘In many ways hanging was, in the 1970s and 1980s, the same issue for the Tories that the EU is today. It was exceptionally hard for Tory candidates to be selected unless they claimed to favour re-introducing hanging. The hangers and floggers were livid when they found that many of the new MPs in 1983 and 1987 had lied and actually (phew) voted against.’

    Funny you should say that – an acquaintance (as opposed to a friend) of mine works in polling and he told me if they held a referendum on bring back the death penalty, it would mirror the EU vote – with the same areas and demographic groups supporting reintroduction just as they supported Leave

  14. “an acquaintance (as opposed to a friend) of mine works in polling and he told me if they held a referendum on bring back the death penalty, it would mirror the EU vote – with the same areas and demographic groups supporting reintroduction just as they supported Leave”

    Seems plausible though there would be some variation.

    Not least I expect support for capital punishment would be quite high from black and Asian voters, who mostly voted Remain.

  15. ‘Not least I expect support for capital punishment would be quite high from black and Asian voters, who mostly voted Remain.’

    Certainly, although apparently still lower (albeit just) than in areas with large WWC electorates, who for the main voted leave

    Perhaps many forsee issues such as race coming into play were the UK to bring the rope back

  16. I assume most on here would not back the reintroduction of the death penalty? I used to be 100% against it…as I’ve aged I’m now 97% against it. I can now accept that some people are so irredeemably awful (Fred and Rose West, Shipman, Brady, Huntley etc) that there is no ‘point’ to their continued existence. I still absolutely don’t think the state should kill people, but I can at least somewhat understand the arguments for it.

  17. That’s pretty much where I stand

    Used to be adamantly against it in my youth – primarily as a result of some of the harrowing cases in the US where they waaay too often get the wrong guy and don’t seem to care that much about it when they do

    Much like yourself, I’ve come to recognise there are plenty of people in the UK’s jails whose crimes and personalities are so bad that they are indeed beyond redemption

  18. Yes. It’s against the law to kill anyone. The state shouldn’t be able to kill people. After watching appropriate adult I get the impression Fred West wasn’t all there in the head. His wife seemed to be the real nasty piece of work.

  19. Meaningful vote next tuesday.
    I have an all day 9-6 open book exam the following day on constitutional law – who knows what drama will happen while I do that then.

  20. Tory Membership poll.
    No Deal v May’s Deal
    64% for No deal – 29% for May’s Deal- 7% no preference.
    No deal v May’s Deal vs Remaining in the EU
    57% for No deal – 23% for May’s Deal – 15% for Remaining in the EU- 5% no preference.
    Second referendum.
    82% opposed – 14% support- 4% no preference.
    Preferred next tory leader- excluding dont know’s
    Johnson – 20%
    Rees Mogg – 15%
    Davis – 8%
    Javid 8%
    Raab – 8%
    Hunt – 6%
    Rudd – 5%
    Gove – 4%
    Moudant – 1%.

  21. If the most Tory Party members support No Deal and Boris Johnson as leader it suggests to me that whichever insider described them as swivel-eyed loons was bang on the money

    And dangerous ones at that in that they are wiling to plunge their country into economic ruins by no deal and given the people no hope of things ever getting better with Boris Johnson – a man who cares about nobody but himself – calling the shots

    Sound like an extremely nasty party to me

  22. No deal is now almost impossible for the Govt to achieve.

    House of Commons votes 303 to 296 to approve Amendment 7 to the FinanceBill.The amendment prevents the Government implementing the “no deal” provisions of Clause 89 without the explicit consent of Parliament for such an outcome.

  23. Sounds to me more like no deal became even more of a doomsday scenario by limiting the government’s ability to respond to it.

  24. Looks like Stephen Bush agrees with me, and I generally trust his judgement on this sort of thing:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/01/parliament-can-agree-it-doesnt-want-no-deal-brexit-thats-it

    “Although Cooper’s amendment was billed as preventing no deal, as she herself freely conceded in the House, the amendment itself does no such thing. In fact, by limiting the government’s powers to raise revenue, it sharpens the rocks at the bottom of the ravine rather than pulls the country away from the cliff edge.”

  25. OK. That’s useful info. But I guess there’ll be more govt defeats of this type?

  26. OK. That’s useful info. But I guess there’ll be more govt defeats of this type?

  27. By taking away the governments legislative propoganda Yvette Coopers amendment has blunted the governments threats of no deal. Well done Yvette

  28. The Latest rumour is that May is being advised by some of her Minsters to call an election for April 4th – therefore meaning parliament is dissolved a few weeks before Brexit day and that means no stunts could stop a no deal brexit.

  29. We could also see John Bercow be forced out at some point before then.

  30. Not sure that could solve her problems. Best she can hope for is a small overall majority which, unless all the Tory rebels are replaced with pro Mays Deal candidates, wouldn’t guarentee support. Worst outcome would be to lose another 30 seats and end up with Labour supported by the nationalists

  31. “The Latest rumour is that May is being advised by some of her Minsters to call an election for April 4th – therefore meaning parliament is dissolved a few weeks before Brexit day and that means no stunts could stop a no deal brexit.”

    No Deal Brexit on 29th March followed by a GE a week later, in the midst of absolute national chaos? Do you SERIOUSLY believe anybody sane on the Tory side would advocate that?

  32. May’s finished and deservedly so

    An appropriate clip that sums up her legacy is what happened to Anna Soubry on Monday

    She promised to be a unifier but instead will inevitably with the country the moist decided it’s ever been – certainly since the war

    And primarily because she doesn’t have the mettle, the bottle, the intelligence, the wit or the charm, to make the best out of what was undeniably a bad hand

  33. Often Prime Ministers over-compensate for the failings of their predecessor. Cameron was a reckless, arrogant gambler who took one too many stupid risks. May by contrast is the model of inaction and can-kicking (the one risk she did take, GE 2017, was of course a big failure).

    It’s hard not to feel sorry for her on a personal level, she’s painted herself into a corner where it will be literally impossible to do the right thing for the country and keep the Tory party together. We are yet to see whether she will prefer to split her own party or fuck over the country.

    This shows up her total lack of strategic foresight. After the referendum she should have laid the ground for an inclusive, multi party soft Brexit before submitting article 50. This might well have included holding a 2nd referendum on soft versus hard Brexit, to get the necessary mandate from the people to prevent the kind of parliamentary roadblocks we are seeing now. She absolutely should not have drawn up the red lines on immigration and free movement which are at root the main obstacles pushing us towards No Deal.

  34. Henmy: “Do you seriously believe anybody sane on the Tory side would advocate that?”

    Well, no. But sanity is far from a universal trait among contemporary Conservative parliamentarians.

  35. I think like Major – who has said it publicly – and Cameron – who certainly thinks it, May’s biggest regret when leaving office will be her failure to stand up to the Right – because much like Thatcher when she was embarking on her economic reforms, she could- if she wanted to – take the country with her – but prefers to kick the can down the road and procrastinate- which is cowardice of the highest order at a time like this – an awful trait for any leader

  36. I’m almost 100% with HH on this. Theresa Mays Lancaster House speech was the beginning and end of Brexit. Full of impossible to meet red lines and hostility toward the EU to get tgeir back up. I don’t think a 2nd ref at the time would have been a palatable solution but the government could have been open toward the customs union & single market. No one wouks have bat an eye lid

  37. Well the Daily Mail is running with the election rumors – through I agree with you- an election a week into no deal is very unlikely. The local elections results could be heavily influenced by no deal as it will take a couple of weeks for many possible consequences to be felt by voters – meaning they be near their peak come polling day.

  38. ‘It’s hard not to feel sorry for her on a personal level, she’s painted herself into a corner where it will be literally impossible to do the right thing for the country and keep the Tory party together. ‘

    I find it hard to feel sorry for her given the gravity of what could happen (No Deal) and given that it’s mainly down to her personal failings why its happening

    I should feel sorry for the country, but when I hear your average chav suggesting we just walk away from the whole thing, I kind of think bring it on

    If we don’t get a No Deal Brexit all we will hear from the Brexiteers over the next few decades is how if we had had one, the UK would now be prospering, rather than stagnating, which will be the inevitable result of any Brexit, however hard or soft

    We all know that those most likely to be in the sh*t because if a No Deal, are those who seem most likely to support it

    The cost to the rest of us however will also be horrendous, and the only people I feel sorry for are those who had the intelligence to see this, and reflected thsat in their vote on 23 June

  39. There are plenty people who did see this but felt things were already bad and that their voice wasn’t being heard. Here was the government giving them a vote on the biggest decision ever and telling them to vote one way so they voted the other

  40. ‘There are plenty people who did see this but felt things were already bad and that their voice wasn’t being heard’

    And they are the ones who deserve to be hit the hardest – cutting off their noses to spite their face

    This voice not being heard is utter nonsense anyhow as such peoples views and concerns regularly get aired in publications The Sun and The Daily Mail – the UK’s 2 biggest-selling newspapers

    The more likely explanation is such people are attracted to politicians like Farage and others who tell them that their own lack of success in live isn’t down to their own inadeqaucies and general lack of talent, bit because people are coming into Britain stealing their jobs and denying them opportunities they would otherwise enjoy

  41. The second reading of the immigration bill on Next Wednesday the day after the vote, means that what May sees as the main driver of leave voters is given coverage the day when she will be fearing that those voters will be fearing no Brexit.
    Through as much as she bangs on about Immigration it won’t be what helps her get a deal through the commons as Enough Tory Mp’s do not care about immigration enough to support a deal where they have fundamental opposition towards.

  42. I think you’re a bit uncharitable there Tim.

    I’m not in the least surprised that the grimmest of post-industrial wastelands such as Stoke, Barnsley, Hartlepool and Merthyr voted the most heavily for Brexit, and for the life of me I can’t understand why people like John Harris have wasted so much time trying to analyse this very obvious issue.

    Many of these places have historically hated the Tories and on top of that the coalition imposed a load of cuts and things like the bedroom tax which hurt like hell in these sorts of areas. Then along came David Cameron with his referendum, effectively saying to Joe Bloggs the unemployed Labour voter in Barnsley, “here’s my smug, rich, posh, smirking face….would you like to slap it?”. It’s hardly a surprise that so many chose to do so, and Cameron was unbelievably stupid not to recognise that many such people would use the vote to give him a good kicking.

    IMO the part of the Brexit voting coalition which is much harder to explain, yet you didn’t mention it at all, was the millions and millions of well off retired people all over the well heeled parts of the country who supported Brexit. Many of them in the Surrey stockbroker belt etc. These are the people who will possibly take a big hit to their asset values etc and seem to have prioritised social concerns above their obvious economic interest.

  43. Tim’s comments are pretty strong stuff (not that I am in a position to judge myself), but very understandable. Anger and dissatisfaction with life fueled the Brexit vote imho.

    Many have talked about the potential for rioting etc if ‘the will of the people’ (vomit) is ‘thwarted’. Actually, I think resentment and dissatisfaction will set in regardless of what happens. Debbie who works at Lidl in Barnsley is very quickly going to realise that leaving the EU is not going to improve her life in any shape or form. That’s when the real anger will set in.

  44. As for HH’s point about wealthy older people voting for Brexit…beats me why that has happened. I admire the Baby Boomers hugely (my parents are Boomers)…they have a lot of great qualities overall. Generosity of spirit is not one of those qualities on a whole, in my view at least. Perhaps they have been too mollycoddled by successive governments. They seem to find it very difficult (as a group) to give any kind of credit or respect to anyone.

  45. The cabinet divide becomes even more public today as Gavin Willamson states that no deal will not be a disaster after Greg Clark said it will be

  46. Forgive me for completely ignoring what Gavin Williamson has to say on absolutely anything. His colleagues (both within the Cabinet and the wider Parliamentary party) feel pretty similarly, if the rumours are to be believed.

  47. Perhaps Williamson is fantasising about No Deal Brexit causing the French to stop selling us electricity and closing EDF’s assets here, leading to a surge in fireplace sales. Or perhaps I’m still granting him too much intelligence. In all seriousness, many of the main political players in all this are primarily interested in their own political prospects, not what’s best for the country, and we should keep that in mind.

  48. ‘IMO the part of the Brexit voting coalition which is much harder to explain, yet you didn’t mention it at all, was the millions and millions of well off retired people all over the well heeled parts of the country who supported Brexit. Many of them in the Surrey stockbroker belt etc. These are the people who will possibly take a big hit to their asset values etc and seem to have prioritised social concerns above their obvious economic interest’

    But as there working lives have finished the economic downturn will affect them less as mist of their incomes tend to be fixed

    My Aunty who moved to a retirement community in Scotland made this point. She’s more opposed to Brexit than i am – she really is – but recognises that unless we have a hard Brexit – which will see goods in supermarkets double in price – she’s far less likely to be majorly affected by it than myself

    As for Williamson he really is a complete an utter joke – and an unnerving weird one at that – and again it speaks volumes for May’s judgement that she invited him into her cabinet

  49. “she’s far less likely to be majorly affected by it than myself”

    In the medium term, if Brexit makes it less easy for us to fund pensions and the NHS, that is unlikely to be true. You and I are young enough to be able to adapt, we can work harder to earn more money and in the most extreme case we can even emigrate. The elderly, even the relatively well off ones, are far more dependent on the health of the state and hence IMO your aunt is being very complacent.

  50. My aunty gets most of her income from various private pensions which is a set amount she will receive until she dies, and whilst things like inflation will have an obvious effect on that she has a lot mire certainty than those or us still in work – who could find themselves out of it as a result of Brexit

    She’s more vexed about Brexit than I am and I think it’s an absolute calamity

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