Maidenhead

2015 Result:
Conservative: 35453 (65.8%)
Labour: 6394 (11.9%)
Lib Dem: 5337 (9.9%)
Green: 1915 (3.6%)
UKIP: 4539 (8.4%)
Independent: 162 (0.3%)
Others: 55 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 29059 (54%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Berkshire. The western part of the Windsor and Maidenhead council area and part of the Wokingham council area to the east of Reading.

Main population centres: Maidenhead, TWyford, Bray, Wargrave, Cookham.

Profile: The constituency consists of the town of Maidenhead itself, an affluent town on the Thames with strong high-tech and pharmaceutical industries, but also stretches south-west to include a swathe of countryside right up to the suburbs of Reading. The seat includes the villages of Cookham, Wargrave, Twyford and Bray - now best known as the location of Heston Blumenthal`s restaurant The Fat Duck, named as the best restaurant in the world in 2005.

Politics: Affluent and middle class, politically Maidenhead has been Conservative since it was split off from the equally Conservative Windsor and Maidenhead seat in 1997. In 2001 the majority fell to just over 3,000 and the seat was supposedly one of those where the Liberal Democrats attempted to "decapitate" leading Conservative politicians. In the event the Conservative majority doubled and with beneficial boundaries charges for the Tories in 2005 it is increasingly safe.


Current MP
THERESA MAY (Conservative) Born 1956, Eastbourne. Educated at Holton Park Girls Grammar and Oxford University. Former financial consultant. Merton councillor 1986-1994. Contested North West Durham 1992, Barking 1994 by-election. First elected as MP for Maidenhead in 1997. Shadow education secretary 1999-2001, shadow transport secretary 2001-2002, Chairman of the Conservative party 2002-2004, shadow family secretary 2004-2005, shadow culture secretary 2005, shadow leader of the Commons 2005-2009, shadow work and pensions secretary 2009-2010. Home Secretary since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31937 (59%)
Lab: 3795 (7%)
LDem: 15168 (28%)
UKIP: 1243 (2%)
Oth: 1577 (3%)
MAJ: 16769 (31%)
2005*
Con: 23312 (51%)
Lab: 4144 (9%)
LDem: 17081 (37%)
BNP: 704 (2%)
Oth: 609 (1%)
MAJ: 6231 (14%)
2001
Con: 19506 (45%)
Lab: 6577 (15%)
LDem: 16222 (37%)
UKIP: 741 (2%)
Oth: 272 (1%)
MAJ: 3284 (8%)
1997
Con: 25344 (50%)
Lab: 9205 (18%)
LDem: 13363 (26%)
Oth: 1339 (3%)
MAJ: 11981 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA MAY (Conservative) See above.
CHARLES SMITH (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Solicitor.
ANTHONY HILL (Liberal Democrat) Former headteacher. Contested Maidenhead 2010.
HERBIE CROSSMAN (UKIP) Security consultant. Harrow councillor 1994-1998 for the Liberal Democrats. Contested Harrow West 1997 for the Referendum party, Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election as Independent, Harrow West 2010 for UKIP.
EMILY BLYTH (Green) Musician.
JOE WILCOX (Class War)
IAN TAPLIN (Independent)
Links
Comments - 2,041 Responses on “Maidenhead”
  1. The Pound has started to drop since May survival was announced.

  2. To me…Brexit deliberately sabotaged & ofc the May deal won’t get through Parl.

    So we have A50 suspended, another public vote in June with the Lab party forced to having a Remain position in the vote.

    New Tory Leader…then a GE in September (as long as the

    Tories are

  3. at least 10% ahead in polls.

  4. Even 10% wont be trusted unless essential – May was at times 20% ahead last year.

  5. The only way we’re going to get another general election before 2022 is if a motion of no confidence passes. Which in turn will happen either if the DUP withdraw their support or the Tories lose a bunch of by-elections.

  6. We could be in for a bumpy ride
    My predictions for May’s successor is Javid or Raab – Javid has better backstory but is not a true believer in brexit in eyes of the ERG and co. Javid may also suffer the curse of being the favourite – he is clearly plotting and setting out his pitch.

  7. Jarvid is a Brexitier but he voted remain. I wonder if he regrets that

  8. Probably – through I think he still retains the support of George Osborne (somehow Javid became the most influential Londoner when his qualifications for being a Londoner also apply to the PM).
    And it Was to please George Osborne as to why he supported Remain.

  9. Javid is still the frontrunner in my eyes. Yes, he voted Remain, but he’s made all the right noises since then, and is right wing enough to keep the Brexit faction happy enough. The liberal, moderate wing of the party will simply be relieved that one of the headbangers didn’t get in.

    I would probably consider Raab to be second favourite and Hunt a rather distant third. Rudd is positioning herself to be a senior figure in a new administration. BoJo and JRM no chance.

  10. Perhaps surprisingly, Boris Johnson is still the favourite with most bookies at about 4/1.

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader

    Worth remembering that a candidate ‘only’ needs the vote of 106 out of 318 Tory MPs to guarantee being in the Top 2, and that he is still popular with the more right -wing Tory members.

  11. Javid seems like the only choice tbh – for the reasons Tristan cites

    Raab has damaged himself by appearing at that event celebrating his resignation with a big grin in his face, painting the picture that he couldn’t care less about what happens to the country after Brexit – which is what many originally thought anyhow

    And Hunt’s fooling no one with his lies – I support Brexit etc, just putting off those moderates who might have otherwise backed him, showing what a woeful, second-rate politician he really is

  12. To an extent- Rabb could beat him among that electorate.

  13. James- yes I saw that. It genuinely surprises me. I guess in the grand scheme of things Boris becoming PM wouldn’t be the strangest thing that has happened in recent years. He’d be a shockingly poor PM in my view…perhaps even worse than Corbyn. I wonder if floating voters in marginal seats agree with me.

    Tim- yes, Hunt is a creep, and Raab is permanently pleased with himself. Pretty telling isn’t it that they are still seen as more credible than most.

  14. Just last night my dad called Hunt weird and hoped he wouldn’t become Pm when reading through the odds (It shows how unknown Dominic Rabb is through as he had to ask me who he was).
    Boris remains popular among many of the public – everyone knows him and either love or loath him.
    Rabb to me does comes across as rather self assured.
    Pritt Patel doesn’t get mentioned much – probably for the best as she is more Maybot than the Maybot,

  15. Boris Johnson may be popular with the grassroots but I am convinced that MPs will not present him to the membership. There is already a Stop Boris campaign, they will even vote tactically if they have to to make sure he isn’t in the final two.

    And even if he won, then as long as the Soubry squad are true to their words and resign from the party, he wouldn’t be able to command the confidence of the house.

  16. “Boris Johnson may be popular with the grassroots but I am convinced that MPs will not present him to the membership.”

    Hmm. If he picks up all of the 117 votes against May he is guaranteed to get to the final two. The ERG have repeatedly said they will run only one candidate and given the poor quality of the other candidates surely Boris must be favourite.

  17. ‘Priti Patel doesn’t get mentioned much’.

    Nor should she be. Let’s keep it that way frankly.

  18. Hemmy: that’s a good point. Still, I think we can agree that 117 represents an absolute ceiling on his vote.

  19. While the ERG claim they will only run one candidate they are divided – while JRM likes Boris it’s not clear if all of them do- or can’t be turned by Raab or Davis or someone else.

  20. Also if May survives past March 29th and Brexit happening (even if it is No Deal) Boris might be seen as as increasingly of previous political generation even for the ERG.

  21. I think BM11 has a good point re: the ERG not all singing from the same hymn sheet. Even if there are saying at this stage that they will coalesce around one candidate, I do wonder if the egos involved are far too monstrous for that to actually happen. For a party that apparently will compromise everything in the pursuit of power, they have a funny way of showing it at times.

  22. Word has it that Esther McVey said she would be interested in running in a future leadership contest should any of her colleagues encorage her to do so

    Presumably none of them have, but its a tragic indictment of today’s politicians when people of such low calibre genuinely believe they are i with a chance of the job at the top

    Obviously Javid, Hunt, Gove et al have considerably more substance but still compared to most front line politicians in post war British political history they come up as not so much second best but like 15th or 16th best – and that’s not good enough

    And you could say almost exactly the same thing about most of Labour;s front bench

    It’s been said alot but it can’t be overstated how below par today’s frontline politicians are which is what makes the likely consequences of Brexit all the more terrifying

  23. Tim- agree with everything you have written. I will say that Esther McVey has always bern open about wanting to be PM. I think she’s deluded and kidding herself, but at least she is open about her ambitions and isn’t engaging in the kind of coy bullshit that some of her colleagues are.

    I was actually thinking the other day that the Major government was not seen as a happy or successful time politically, but Major, Heseltine, Clarke etc were so much more impressive than some if the leading contenders today.

  24. (Of course, the period 93-97 was, whilst not happy politically, a very strong period economically for the UK. Just think…house prices were actually sane back then).

  25. I was no great fan of the major governments but despite voting new Labour I did question myself when I saw the likes of Straw, Byers and Blears replacing the likes of Clarke, Heseltine and Major as it became quickly apparent that they weren’t in the same league as politicians and that’s continued to this day

  26. Again, agreed. I think the Blair government was so dominated by Blair himself and Brown that Cabinet almost felt inconsequential. Factor in the enormous majority and these people really could just be ignored. I did admire Robin Cook though, and had time for Margaret Beckett.

  27. Tonight at the EU summit has confirmed further to me that No deal is likely coming – I cant see what other option will happen as her deal wont pass and I am not sure anything else will.
    However I might be proven wrong if the pound does not suffer tommrow as a result of my prediction of increased likelihood of no deal.

  28. I remember my friend having an obsession with Geoff Hoon and looking back now you almost forgey who he waa

  29. ‘Tonight at the EU summit has confirmed further to me that No deal is likely coming ‘

    you’be been saying that in every single post you’ve made over the past fortnight

    There’s no majority for that in the country and except for maybe 80-100 extremists, MPs are opposed to it to an even greater extent

  30. Mp’s don’t have to do anything for a no deal to happen.

  31. Which is why it wont happen. MPs won’t let that happen

  32. Through what can pass? The only way might be abstentions from the Labour frontbench and even that looks unlikely.

  33. “However I might be proven wrong if the pound does not suffer tommrow as a result of my prediction of increased likelihood of no deal.”

    BM11 – Are you the governor the the BofE? You must have some serious influence if the markets move as a result of your predictions 🙂

    Seriously though, the EU and parliament will probably agree to some sort of extension… probably 6 months. The only problem I foresee is if the EU stipulates that they will only extend if we either accept the deal or agree to another referendum….

  34. MPs would revoke A50 before no deal happened

  35. May and the government popularity could suffer more next week will food waste collections changing – I don’t know anyone who supports food waste bins and all the people who have the bins ignore them and just break the rules anyway.

  36. And a futher sign that No Deal is increasingly likely – the Sun (Never one to back a loser)- is advocating for a managed one.

  37. I think we’ve already have had this conversation. The Sun has been advocating a ‘clean’ Brexit as JRM calls it for some time but tge Sun clearly has less influence with sales falling by 2 million in 10 years. Despite all their hard work they couldn’t save May’s maj

  38. Conversely, the Conservative vote among C2DEs reached record highs in 2017. The Tories lost their majority principally because the middle classes abandoned them. So fair to interpret this as the red tops doing their job and the Mail/Telegraph letting the side down?

  39. Though Labour still did better amongst the C2 & DE. However, if anyone is to be criticised in print news it probably is George Osbourne. If we really believe middle class print let the side down nobody more than Osbourne stuck the knife in

  40. Torries suffered biggest swings among younger middle class people – probably not traditional newspaper readers except for the Standard or the other free papers.

  41. Thressa May, during her post Eu summit statement to the commons, will strongly attack a second referendum.

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