Maidenhead

2015 Result:
Conservative: 35453 (65.8%)
Labour: 6394 (11.9%)
Lib Dem: 5337 (9.9%)
Green: 1915 (3.6%)
UKIP: 4539 (8.4%)
Independent: 162 (0.3%)
Others: 55 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 29059 (54%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Berkshire. The western part of the Windsor and Maidenhead council area and part of the Wokingham council area to the east of Reading.

Main population centres: Maidenhead, TWyford, Bray, Wargrave, Cookham.

Profile: The constituency consists of the town of Maidenhead itself, an affluent town on the Thames with strong high-tech and pharmaceutical industries, but also stretches south-west to include a swathe of countryside right up to the suburbs of Reading. The seat includes the villages of Cookham, Wargrave, Twyford and Bray - now best known as the location of Heston Blumenthal`s restaurant The Fat Duck, named as the best restaurant in the world in 2005.

Politics: Affluent and middle class, politically Maidenhead has been Conservative since it was split off from the equally Conservative Windsor and Maidenhead seat in 1997. In 2001 the majority fell to just over 3,000 and the seat was supposedly one of those where the Liberal Democrats attempted to "decapitate" leading Conservative politicians. In the event the Conservative majority doubled and with beneficial boundaries charges for the Tories in 2005 it is increasingly safe.


Current MP
THERESA MAY (Conservative) Born 1956, Eastbourne. Educated at Holton Park Girls Grammar and Oxford University. Former financial consultant. Merton councillor 1986-1994. Contested North West Durham 1992, Barking 1994 by-election. First elected as MP for Maidenhead in 1997. Shadow education secretary 1999-2001, shadow transport secretary 2001-2002, Chairman of the Conservative party 2002-2004, shadow family secretary 2004-2005, shadow culture secretary 2005, shadow leader of the Commons 2005-2009, shadow work and pensions secretary 2009-2010. Home Secretary since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31937 (59%)
Lab: 3795 (7%)
LDem: 15168 (28%)
UKIP: 1243 (2%)
Oth: 1577 (3%)
MAJ: 16769 (31%)
2005*
Con: 23312 (51%)
Lab: 4144 (9%)
LDem: 17081 (37%)
BNP: 704 (2%)
Oth: 609 (1%)
MAJ: 6231 (14%)
2001
Con: 19506 (45%)
Lab: 6577 (15%)
LDem: 16222 (37%)
UKIP: 741 (2%)
Oth: 272 (1%)
MAJ: 3284 (8%)
1997
Con: 25344 (50%)
Lab: 9205 (18%)
LDem: 13363 (26%)
Oth: 1339 (3%)
MAJ: 11981 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA MAY (Conservative) See above.
CHARLES SMITH (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Solicitor.
ANTHONY HILL (Liberal Democrat) Former headteacher. Contested Maidenhead 2010.
HERBIE CROSSMAN (UKIP) Security consultant. Harrow councillor 1994-1998 for the Liberal Democrats. Contested Harrow West 1997 for the Referendum party, Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election as Independent, Harrow West 2010 for UKIP.
EMILY BLYTH (Green) Musician.
JOE WILCOX (Class War)
IAN TAPLIN (Independent)
Links
Comments - 2,174 Responses on “Maidenhead”
  1. Bit naive, perhaps but a way out of this morass might be if Lab declares it is in favour of REMAIN* and challenge the Govt to fight a GE

    Admittefly, Both sides might have to believe their own polling intelligence for this to happen.

    *For Lab there is evidence that it would do well if it challenged Brexit.

  2. Bit naive, perhaps but a way out of this morass might be if Lab declares it is in favour of REMAIN* and challenge the Govt to fight a GE

    Admittefly, Both sides might have to believe their own polling intelligence for this to happen.

    *For Lab there is evidence that it would do well if it challenged Brexit.

  3. No Tory MP will agree to a GE whilst Mother Theresa remains in charge, and unless she resigns she is gonna be there until December at least.

    Getting a GE against the wishes of Tory MPs means winning a VONC which would need support from the DUP and/or some Tories committing career suicide by voting no confidence in their own government.

    Barring a catastrophe that rules out a GE before Brexit date even if the EU extends it a few months.

  4. Barring a catastrophe that rules out a GE before Brexit date even if the EU extends it a few months.

    I don’t really see the logic in Labour wanting one – if anything as things currently stand they are likely to lose seats, especially following Corbyn’s refusal to enter talks with May

    Collectively they are arguably the two worst leaders the two main parties have ever had – and after things like Brexit it’s becoming increasingly hard to argue the country deserves anything better

  5. “Collectively they are arguably the two worst leaders the two main parties have ever had”

    Wait till the Tories elect their next leader, who will almost certainly be from the hard Right. Theresa May could well be the last ever vaguely moderate Tory leader.

  6. In terms of electoral politics they aren’t the worst by some margin. Henderson who took over the leadership from the PM lost his own seat as well as reducing Labour to 50 seats.

  7. Thank you for your kind words H.Hemmelig.
    If a second referendum got the backing of both parties payroll vote it would easily pass the commons – but of course that is very unlikely at present. Revoking Article 50 seems even less likely to happen – the protests even a delay would bring terrifies May I suspect in a way I don’t think No Deal does – I genuinely think May thinks that while it might causes a lot of disruption the Brexit base she is appealing to will back it and will remain supportive of her and her Party.

  8. The odds on leaving on 29th of March are falling. A50 is going to be revoked unless a deal is reached

  9. As a side note- the third reading of the Immigration bill – which was meant to be yesterday before being bumped for the No Confidence debate- does not appear next week. If No deal happens they will be chaos in the immigration system as they won’t be a post EU on in place within two months as it will be blocked in an attempt frustrate no deal if it did get voted on it.

  10. A leaked memo from the Civil Service states that it will take 1 year to organise and hold a second referendum, for it to be fully compliant with parliamentary procedure and electoral law.

    This makes a Peoples’ Vote exceptionally unlikely IMO.

  11. “A50 is going to be revoked unless a deal is reached”

    Who is going to propose the legislation to revoke it? It won’t be Theresa May. Who is going to vote to revoke it? Almost nobody who is a Tory and doesn’t have an ultra-Remain constituency.

    Revoking without a referendum would be a constitutional outrage and electoral suicide, yet organising a fully legal referendum would take minimum 1 year according to leaked advice from the Civil Service. Probably more given likely attempts to frustrate the process.

    I don’t agree with Peter Crerar that this is 100% not going to happen but all the same it does not seem probable.

  12. “If No deal happens they will be chaos in the immigration system as they won’t be a post EU on in place within two months as it will be blocked in an attempt frustrate no deal if it did get voted on it.”

    And don’t forget the wider aspects of the “immigration system”. For example most of the 3 million EU citizens here drive on their EU driving licences. After No Deal Brexit they will be invalid. Millions of people unable to drive to work or pick up their kids etc until they pass a UK driving test. Many will ignore the law and hence be uninsured, causing big headaches for the rest of us. Just one small example of the chaos which awaits mundane aspects of life.

  13. ‘Wait till the Tories elect their next leader,’

    I don’t particularly like Javid or Hunt but they at least seem more competent than May – and I don’t really see any other possibilities

  14. I’m unconvinced Javid or Hunt would beat the ERG candidate who is bound to get through to the final two. Unless of course the ERG select an absolute donkey like Patel or McVey. But a Raab or Boris would beat Javid or Hunt among the membership IMO.

    Javid and Hunt’s best chance would be a coronation but I doubt the party would allow it this time.

  15. I’m convinced Tory MPs would conspire against Boris – the same way they did with Portillo in 2001 – to ensure he doesn’t make it to the final run off because if he did he would almost certainly win

    A Boris Johnson led Tory government admits the chaos of a no deal Brexit could well be the final nail in the Conservative party coffin

  16. A referendum could be arranged in less than a year- it wouldn’t have to take six months (Like in 2015) to get the act through parliament if each stage was done as quickly as legally possible
    I am very skeptical of a second referendum but would vote for remain if that was an option.
    According to the DVLA those drivers on non EU licenses currently have a year to pass a British test but can drive on a non EU license at that moment so not sure if come No deal EU citizens will be grounded. I cant find any mention on the DVLA website.

  17. Those EU citizens who have been resident for longer than a year would indeed find their license totally invalid unless the government permitted some kind of transitionary grace period. That would likely depend on whether EU countries did the same for UK citizens living in the EU. My wife fell foul of not converting her US license within a year of arriving here hence has to pass a UK test now. Many people who move here first live in London for a bit where they don’t have to drive, and end up forgetting about their driving license until they move out and suddenly need it.

  18. I suspect they would probably find they forced into those quick concessions.
    They is literally no coverage of what could be a major issue – not even articles talking about UK licenses in Europe mention this aspect.

  19. I just want to get on with it now. The electorate and the economy will respond positively once we have a clear sense of direction. The establishment (and the liberal elite) fear change.
    £39 billion – for a small fraction of that we could have put very substantial measures in place – to preempt anything bumpy – and it’s not too late.
    Let’s make a gernaous offer to EU nationals now (in the deal which was defeated) and set no tariffs. The chance is that will be reciprocated by the EU.

  20. That’s either the fake Joe or the real one’s been on the booze. OK OK I’ll take the bait

    “£39 billion – for a small fraction of that we could have put very substantial measures in place”

    A fairly significant part of the £39bn we will have to pay anyway even under No Deal because it is our legal share of joint EU liabilities. We can default I suppose, but at huge damage to our international reputation and credit rating, and nobody will agree a trade deal with a defaulter.

    “it’s not too late”

    You’re avin a larff. Two months to rebuild our entire import-export infrastructure.

    “Let’s make a gernaous offer to EU nationals now (in the deal which was defeated) and set no tariffs”

    Brilliant idea. Let’s take one small example from my own sector. All import tariffs abolished on 29th March, Tata Steel goes bankrupt and closes all UK steelmaking on April 1st. Ditto every dairy and hill farm in the land, and business in countless other sectors.

  21. The more and more you hear from no deal brexiteers the more stupid and deranged they. Their grasp of the issue they are so up in arms about borders on embarassing and Joe’s latest post is a perfect example. They don’t live in the real and they are a very vocal – and not to mention violent – minority and I’d rather the dullards and unelected beaurocrats of the Eu to these truly malign nutters placed in charge of our destiny

  22. Look at the original cabinet ministers who supported Brexit. You have Chris Grayling who’s so incompetent he wouldn’t last 2 days in a job in the real world, Andrea Leadsome who only became an MP because of a CV that wasn’t so much an embellishment more am outright lie, IDS the only leader more incompetent than May, Theresa Villiers who just seems dim, David Davis who doesn’t seem to grasp the most fundamental facts about Brexit and Boris Johnson, the scum of the earth

    Only Gove comes over as somebody who sort of gets it

  23. Poor John Whittingdale. Nobody ever remembers him.

  24. ‘Look at the original cabinet ministers who supported Brexit. You have Chris Grayling who’s so incompetent he wouldn’t last 2 days in a job in the real world, Andrea Leadsome who only became an MP because of a CV that wasn’t so much an embellishment more am outright lie, IDS the only leader more incompetent than May, Theresa Villiers who just seems dim, David Davis who doesn’t seem to grasp the most fundamental facts about Brexit and Boris Johnson, the scum of the earth’.

    What a shower of shite. A veritable buffet of chancers.

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