Maidenhead

2015 Result:
Conservative: 35453 (65.8%)
Labour: 6394 (11.9%)
Lib Dem: 5337 (9.9%)
Green: 1915 (3.6%)
UKIP: 4539 (8.4%)
Independent: 162 (0.3%)
Others: 55 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 29059 (54%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Berkshire. The western part of the Windsor and Maidenhead council area and part of the Wokingham council area to the east of Reading.

Main population centres: Maidenhead, TWyford, Bray, Wargrave, Cookham.

Profile: The constituency consists of the town of Maidenhead itself, an affluent town on the Thames with strong high-tech and pharmaceutical industries, but also stretches south-west to include a swathe of countryside right up to the suburbs of Reading. The seat includes the villages of Cookham, Wargrave, Twyford and Bray - now best known as the location of Heston Blumenthal`s restaurant The Fat Duck, named as the best restaurant in the world in 2005.

Politics: Affluent and middle class, politically Maidenhead has been Conservative since it was split off from the equally Conservative Windsor and Maidenhead seat in 1997. In 2001 the majority fell to just over 3,000 and the seat was supposedly one of those where the Liberal Democrats attempted to "decapitate" leading Conservative politicians. In the event the Conservative majority doubled and with beneficial boundaries charges for the Tories in 2005 it is increasingly safe.


Current MP
THERESA MAY (Conservative) Born 1956, Eastbourne. Educated at Holton Park Girls Grammar and Oxford University. Former financial consultant. Merton councillor 1986-1994. Contested North West Durham 1992, Barking 1994 by-election. First elected as MP for Maidenhead in 1997. Shadow education secretary 1999-2001, shadow transport secretary 2001-2002, Chairman of the Conservative party 2002-2004, shadow family secretary 2004-2005, shadow culture secretary 2005, shadow leader of the Commons 2005-2009, shadow work and pensions secretary 2009-2010. Home Secretary since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 31937 (59%)
Lab: 3795 (7%)
LDem: 15168 (28%)
UKIP: 1243 (2%)
Oth: 1577 (3%)
MAJ: 16769 (31%)
2005*
Con: 23312 (51%)
Lab: 4144 (9%)
LDem: 17081 (37%)
BNP: 704 (2%)
Oth: 609 (1%)
MAJ: 6231 (14%)
2001
Con: 19506 (45%)
Lab: 6577 (15%)
LDem: 16222 (37%)
UKIP: 741 (2%)
Oth: 272 (1%)
MAJ: 3284 (8%)
1997
Con: 25344 (50%)
Lab: 9205 (18%)
LDem: 13363 (26%)
Oth: 1339 (3%)
MAJ: 11981 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THERESA MAY (Conservative) See above.
CHARLES SMITH (Labour) Educated at Warwick University. Solicitor.
ANTHONY HILL (Liberal Democrat) Former headteacher. Contested Maidenhead 2010.
HERBIE CROSSMAN (UKIP) Security consultant. Harrow councillor 1994-1998 for the Liberal Democrats. Contested Harrow West 1997 for the Referendum party, Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election as Independent, Harrow West 2010 for UKIP.
EMILY BLYTH (Green) Musician.
JOE WILCOX (Class War)
IAN TAPLIN (Independent)
Links
Comments - 1,471 Responses on “Maidenhead”
  1. Bill Patrick: that analysis is flawed, though. A president has control over trillions of dollars, but the average voter only ever sees a few thousand. So the correct calculation is a few thousand dollars for a voter, and a less-than-one-in-a-million chance of an individual’s vote will make a difference – the expected value of a vote *to that voter* will be fractions of a cent.

  2. Poll Troll,

    But the average voter has preferences regarding how that money is spent, and there are often significant differences in how different presidential candidates will spend the money.

    And also nuclear war etc., which is hard to quantify, but the expected dollar value of avoiding even a small nuclear war is very high.

  3. Is there such a thing as a “small nuclear war”?

    Don’t worry – that was rhetorical!

  4. Any war can never be TOO small!

  5. Also, as UKIPPERS know, voting “with your heart” isn’t a wasred vote. Had Clinton won, scraping home whilst a chunk of the electorate voted Green, she might feel more pressure to appease that section of the electorate before next time. It’s not winning, obviously, and the effect is difficult to measure, but such pressure does sometimes bear fruit.

  6. AP reports that President Trump has been briefed on what the FBI have referred to as a terrorist attack in Manhattan.

    No word on any COBRA meeting yet, but the White House said the President has spoken with the PM.

  7. YouGov Best PM poll, November 2017:

    May 34% (+1%)

    JC 31% (-2%)

  8. YouGov approval ratings:

    May: -24
    Corbyn: +5

  9. On Boris & Gove; even The Guardian still can’t see the obvious; that there was far more to their shenanigans during their failed leadership bids than they claim. The tired old tale that Gove “stabbed Johnson in the front” looks even more ridiculoys now that they are signing letters of protest together, and turning the heat up on May. Their campaigns to get one of them to PM are orchestrated. I still don’t know why Murdoch switched horses from Johnson to Gove last time, but you can be sure that they agreed it as a team.

    With 40 names already on the 1922 list, Gove and Johnson ready to make that 42, and several people undoubtedly prepared to stick up their hands when they do, I think a challenge to May is almost certain in the next couple of months. Johnson’s credibility has gone, so I suspect their plan may be to (initially, at least) go for Gove again. Exciting times!

  10. TMay to exit as PM 1ja

  11. TMay to exit as PM in Q1 2018 (01Jan – 31march) has shortened to 3/1 – or 25% likelihood.

  12. ALEX F – Not bad odds, those….but it would be just my luck if she went before then!

    I do still think it’s possible that she might ride it out until March 2019, though. Mind you, if you were her, wouldn’t you start to wonder what the point was?

  13. I suppose it is a good chance she either goes early (before April ) or does hang on till BREXIT date around Mar/April 2019.

    “…wonder what the point was?”: Leaders do not think like that!

  14. Next year of GE:
    2018
    2019
    2022
    are all 3 identical prices on Betfair – 3.7 or 27% likelihood

  15. PEPPERMINTTEA & LANCS OBSERVER – It seems that even Nigel Farage has had to accept that your opinions of Hope Not Hate are “fake news”.

    Funny that, isn’t it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/nigel-farage-withdraws-claim-hope-not-hate-high-court?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

  16. He probably can’t be bothered spending the money to fight the case.

    They have an almost unlimited pot of money to run with… whereas he isn’t exactly loaded.

    He’s got what he always wanted, other than his secondary wish to be part of the establishment.

    HNH aren’t a beacon of light, though he could have chosen his words more carefully at the time…

  17. EcoW – again, I wasn’t giving my opinion, merely correcting your misapprehension by pointing out the facts (as is often the case on here).

    Farage could, of course, instead simply have listed the criminal convictions they have, although in the main I referred to the Anti Na*i League in the ’90s and UAF in the past decade or so, re the fact that 3 times their number were arrested and convicted v the far Right.

  18. LUKE SENIOR – “He probably can’t be bothered spending the money to fight the case.

    They have an almost unlimited pot of money to run with… whereas he isn’t exactly loaded.”

    HAHAHAHAHA

    LANCS OBSERVER – No you weren’t “pointing out the facts”. What you have done is perpetrate the demonisation of those on the left. You prove that people actually take notice of extremists like Farage when he churns out misinformation (in his typically smug and “….as we all know…” sort of way. That tactic works in getting the angry, disaffected (and sometimes just wantonly unpleasant) on board, and he knows a “retraction” when he’s challenged will make little difference to to their (your) opinions. He has been called out, and is just hoping to keep his head down.

  19. LANCS O – I can’t find your 3-1 stat, can you give me the link?

    What I can find, across a range of different sources, is the severe end of politically-motivated convictions-torrorism – is massively weighted towards right-wing individuals. Far-right arrests for terror-related offences is catching up with Islamism, whilst there remain only a tiny trickle of similar left-wing offences (presumably mainly from animal rights activists). The PREVENT strategy still has a majority of referrals from Islamist sources, but far-right referrals make up a quarter of the total, again with the left almost non-existent.

    So I suspect that your stat (if genuine) relies heavily on another “equivalence of sin”, in that you are comparing people chaining themselves to trees with racist terrorism. Of course there has been violence between groups of left and groups of right wing protesters, so there will be convictions for violence, but you are comparing apples and pears.

  20. LANCS O – also, if one goes across the pond, the comparison is even more weighted towords right-wing violence.

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