Loughborough

2015 Result:
Conservative: 25762 (49.5%)
Labour: 16579 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 2130 (4.1%)
Green: 1845 (3.5%)
UKIP: 5704 (11%)
MAJORITY: 9183 (17.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Leicestershire. Part of the Charnwood council area.

Main population centres: Loughborough, Shepsted, Sileby, Quorn, Barrow upon Soar,.

Profile: The seat consists of the town of Loughborough, most widely associated with its famously sporty university, the dormitory town of Shepsted on the M1 to the west and smaller villages of the Soar valley to the east, including Sileby, Quorn and Barrow upon Soar. Quorn is associated with the famous Quorn hunt, although it actually left the village a century ago and is based elsewhere in Leicestershire. The meat substitute Quorn is also reportedly named after the village, but has no other connection to it.

Politics: Loughborough is a key marginal, having been won by the party that received the most seats at every general election since February 1974. Before that the seat contained part of the Leicestershire coalfield and was a safe Labour seat.


Current MP
NICKY MORGAN (Conservative) Born 1972, Kingston on Thames. Educated at Surbiton High School and Oxford University. Former solicitor. Contested Islington South 2001, Loughborough 2005. First elected as MP for Loughborough in 2010. Economic Secretary 2013-2014, Financial Secretary 2014. Education Secretary since 2014.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21971 (42%)
Lab: 18227 (34%)
LDem: 9675 (18%)
BNP: 2040 (4%)
Oth: 925 (2%)
MAJ: 3744 (7%)
2005*
Con: 17102 (37%)
Lab: 19098 (41%)
LDem: 8258 (18%)
UKIP: 1094 (2%)
Oth: 588 (1%)
MAJ: 1996 (4%)
2001
Con: 15638 (35%)
Lab: 22016 (50%)
LDem: 5667 (13%)
UKIP: 933 (2%)
MAJ: 6378 (14%)
1997
Con: 19736 (38%)
Lab: 25448 (49%)
LDem: 6190 (12%)
MAJ: 5712 (11%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICKY MORGAN (Conservative) See above.
MATTHEW O`CALLAGHAN (Labour) Educated at Ashby-de-la-Zouch Grammar School. Business consultant. Melton councillor and former Leicestershire councillor.
STEVE COLTMAN (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Selhurst Grammar School and Southampton University. Retired chemical projects manager.
BILL PIPER (UKIP) Educated at Royal Latin School.
MATT SISSON (Green)
Links
Comments - 397 Responses on “Loughborough”
  1. The Ashcroft poll was taken at the beginning of the month, and I wonder if recent swings toward Labour nationally might have happened here too.

    Haven’t seen much of the Conservative campaign around, and seeing certainly fewer posters in windows, and had fewer leaflets through doors, than for Labour. That ratio holds, surprisingly, in the student wards (where you also see a few Green posters up, but still very few blue) and also what I have seen of some of the safer Tory areas of Quorn and Sileby.

    Posters in windows don’t mean anything on their own, of course – it could just be that a lot of the constituency is ‘quietly Tory’. But there’s definitely a sense on the ground here that the Labour campaign is more energetic and engaged – and that if the Conservatives do hold the seat it will be in spite of their campaign, rather than because of it.

  2. Highly marginal

    I predict something along these lines.
    Lab – 40%
    Con – 39%
    UKIP – 10%
    LD – 9%
    Green – 2%

  3. Didn’t you see the constituency poll Clive? Nicky Morgan was quite a long way ahead.

  4. Oh was she? Well then I apologise sincerely, dear heart. I don’t spend much time reading these polls, far too new-fangled for someone of my advanced years.

    Morgan to hold, with the Labour gentleman bringing up the rear (lucky him..)

  5. it is a polling site, dear fellow – not a bad idea to keep abreast of such things…….

  6. I’ll have none of your lip, thank you. I’m significantly older than you and hence worthy of your utmost respect and courtesy at all times.

  7. How do you know my age? l haven’t gone out of my way to publicise it

  8. My partner Derek is psychic. He told me.

  9. I’d like you to apologise to Derek for doubting his abilities. He’s here in bed with me now, eagerly waiting for it

  10. So today –

    1) Cheerful band of of Tory canvassers in middle class estate. This is the most tories I’ve seen all campaign.

    2) I forget the guys name (beard, short, looks earnest) but he is a real left wing old school Labour type. He was down Alan Moss Road on his own. He was down near the canal bank a couple of days back.

    3) Saw Labour candidate at Tesco late at night. He looked utterly kippered – a reminder that candidates and the tribalists that follow them really put in long hours during the campaign.

    4) All other parties are invisible.

    Interesting that tory and labour are sticking to part of town that contains base. Have they given up on trying to win from each other?

    Anyway comment before stands. After the CLP imploded this seat was only going one way.

    PS Darkarts – you’re talking nonsense. Some areas of Loughborough are heavy Labour and some heavy tory.

  11. Inwb – I haven’t seen any Tories in this seat other than council candidates lobbying for election.

    I spoke to Nicky Morgan last saturday for about 5minutes. I asked her why train season ticket prices were so much higher to London than compared to rugby nuneaton Melton mowbray. I actually drive to rugby in my commute to London everyday. I asked her why she has done nothing to stop garendon, barrow, hathern and quorn when she says she’s against it. Protestors have provided viable alternatives to the developments along with local press yet she has done nothing to push through the concerns. The developments have all been kicked out into the long grass until after the election. The property firm William Davis gave 1500 to Nicky Morgan. She replied like Cameron a BiG pile of pr from a bulls backside.

    In yesterdays Loughborough echo labour candidate came out against all housing developments as alternatives are viable. Nicky didn’t mention any local issues on why she should be re-elected.

    People voting for Nicky Morgan I have no idea where they are because they isn’t one tory poster. There are lots of labour and I think labour can win this.

    Shepshed seems very more pro labour than last local elections. Same with nanpanton, Hastings and Ashby. People who aren’t interested in politics are starting to engage and theyre lib dems who are leaning labour.

    I think Loughborough ashcroft poll was an outlier. It happens.

    This will not be a 9pt race. Labour will get very close.

  12. Inwb can you tell me some roads in Loughborough where they’re lots of visible Tories compared to 2010 its difficult to find.

    Hathern still zero. I have seen one Tory poster for Nicky Morgan in Loughborough itself yet.

  13. Ashby is already fairly heavily Labour to be fair – the by-election there in 2013 was won with a 72% vote share (albeit on a dismal turnout).

    However I would agree it’ll be closer than nine points. Just how close I can’t say.

  14. Shepshed is marginal but its very active for labour.

  15. Con Hold…Labour will lose more seats to UKIP than CON…also Milliband’s pitiful performance last Thursday night will do for him in this type of seat

  16. Which seats will Labour lose to UKIP, Neil?

  17. You wait and see Mr Eastwood…the man with no name – !!

  18. Labour won’t lose any seats to ukip.

    Nicky Morgan still doesn’t know if she wants to be in Europe or leave Europe.

  19. Why do people do this on election sites? No one is convinced.

  20. OK…how about Alyn and Deeside and Haywood and Middleton

  21. Yes. UKIP are targeting Alyn and Deeside and making a big impact.

    UKIP were first last year in many parts of North Wales.

    I think Cons were second in those areas.

  22. I have seen very few posters from any party tbh -Labour has 2-3 on derby road.

    Tories have been around Fairmeadows and villages (excluding Shepshed). Agree it will be close but I still think a hold. Be interesting Thursday night either way

  23. I saw my first Nicky Morgan poster on the edge of a roundabout on the a6 leaving Loughborough heading towards Leicester.

    Went to Norfolk yesterday more activity in nw nolfolk and sw Norfolk from Henry billlingham and Liz truss.

    There was an old guy standing outside tesco in shelthorpe with a vote Nicky Morgan sign. Everyone just wanted to shop unsurprisingly.

    Going to barrow, silent this morning then outwoods this afternoon.

    Not one voter has told me a thing Nicky Morgan has delivered for Loughborough yet. They just talk about her job and her photos.

  24. Sileby not silent. Tablet predictive text gone wrong

  25. Conservative Hold. 3,000 majority.

  26. George Osborne was here in loughborough with nicky morgan…how strange…why would you spend so much in a seat that is so safe according to everyone based on one ashcroft poll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  27. George Osborne was here in loughborough with nicky morgan today on the last day of the election…how strange…why would you spend so much in a seat that is so safe according to everyone based on one ashcroft poll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  28. I’m surprised nobody has commented on the GE result here.

    Very poor for Labour here (and the other Midlands marginal) and for O’Callaghan. Great result for Morgan and the Tories though.

    I can’t see Labour winning this seat back in the foreseeable future.I think this is now a safe Tory seat that will only be won by Labour in a landslide year.

  29. The Lib Dems didn’t do as badly here as in the rest of the East Midlands as well as nationally in terms of vote share decrease- it was ‘only’ down 7.3%. I wonder why this was?

  30. As an alum I’d suggest the university, or at least I would have before the Lib Dem climbdown on tuition fees

  31. It turns out there was a bit of confusion with the figures over on Wikipedia- the Lib Dems in fact got 2, 130 votes, or 4.1%, which was in fact down 14.2%. I think the UKIP and Lib Dem figures got mixed up.

  32. My results spreadsheet is more accurate than WIkipedia.

  33. This seat saw the biggest Lab to Con swing in the East Midlands by my reckoning.

  34. I was expecting Labour to do better given this is a university seat. They did do okay in other such constituencies like Canterbury.

  35. This was yet another dreadful result for Labour and an excellent one with first time incmbuency for Nicky Morgan- I suspect it won’t be lost any time soon given the majority the Tories now have here, and that Labour can only really go after this seat when they’re in a position to win a landslide victory nationally, which looks light years away quite frankly.

  36. It just about says it all that the Conservatives’ majority and vote share here almost matched what they managed in 1992, when the seat’s boundaries were vastly more favourable to them.

  37. Away from the big cities Birmingham, Leicester, Nottingham etc – Labour did particularly badly in the Midlands, especially in marginal seats like this one, where UKIP didn’t do perhaps as well as many thought they might

    As Tory says, the boundary changes of 97 removed swathes of Conservative-voting countryside – and that Labour got a smaller share of the vote than in 92 really does underline Labour’s problems in attracting support in Middle England

  38. The Tories also did pretty well in the Loughborough wards on Charnwood council in the locals in May, which is something of a surprise. I loved my time at Lufbra and am proud to be an alumnus but have to say that plenty of the town has seen better days.

  39. I agree with Andy JS that Labour did not do better in 2015 because of the student vote.

    Part of the reason may simply be that this constituency has a high-profile and capable MP.

  40. If that did happen (no chance in my view but let’s pretend) and Labour got their act together in the next parliament, this could be a serious prospect for unseating a sitting PM in 2025.

    Dan Jarvis (he’s from Nottingham, only a dozen miles from here) would go down pretty well in Loughborough.

  41. For the moment, Nicky Morgan should concentrate on doing a good job as Education Secretary. And she and her agent should try to get Loughborough redistributed a bit so that the seat gets a bit safer for the Conservatives.

    She who seeks promotion too soon tends not to get the job.

  42. I’m not sure how Loughborough could be redistributed to be safer for the Tories – all the outer areas of the constituency are rural, and the Labour voting bits are in the town.

    Maybe removing Shepshed and putting it in North West Leicestershire? It’s more marginal than, say, Barrow. Andrew Bridgen would complain, mind.

  43. Mr Namesless – ”Dan Jarvis (he’s from Nottingham, only a dozen miles from here) would go down pretty well in Loughborough.”

    Yes, he’d go well in those non-metropolitan commuter towns like this where Miliband / Labour did so badly at the last GE.

    I hope Jarvis becomes the next Labour leader and sooner rather than later!

  44. Dan Jarvis has about as much chance of becoming the next Labour leader as Margaret Thatcher. Not that he’d want it before the election anyway. Corbyn has totally fucked the party’s chances for 2020 no matter who takes over.

  45. Morgan has no chance. I can’t see her having kind of meaningful support amongst Tory MP’s. She’s spectacularly over promoted as it is.

  46. Hemmelig,

    Why do you say that? He’s not explicitly right wing as far as Labour goes (currently a selectoral drag) and I’ve detected no antipathy towards him among members and supporters.

  47. “He’s not explicitly right wing as far as Labour goes”

    Really? Then why did he refuse to serve in the shadow cabinet under Corbyn? That will be seen as a cardinal sin amongst vast numbers of the Corbynistas who will choose Corbyn’s replacement. A military background isn’t the be all and end all (look at Eric Joyce), and frankly a unilateralist membership won’t look favourably on it anyway.

    You told us that your contacts with “members and supporters” indicated Burnham was going to win easily….just goes to show that we tend to mix in our own highly unrepresentative cliques which are next to useless as predictors.

  48. “Dan Jarvis has about as much chance of becoming the next Labour leader as Margaret Thatcher. Not that he’d want it before the election anyway. Corbyn has totally fucked the party’s chances for 2020 no matter who takes over.”

    H.Hemmelig – Do you think he has a chance once Labour are wiped out in 2020? In my opinion, he’s the only MP that can save Labour from UKIP in the north and the Midlands as well as attract voters from the south.

  49. ‘Nicky Morgan has hinted she wants to replace David Cameron as PM once he stands down.’

    I can’t think of anyone in the current cabinet who would seem a less suitable leader than Morgan.

    Her leadership qualities are non-existant

    If she did say that it poses serious questions about her judgement

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