Loughborough

2015 Result:
Conservative: 25762 (49.5%)
Labour: 16579 (31.9%)
Lib Dem: 2130 (4.1%)
Green: 1845 (3.5%)
UKIP: 5704 (11%)
MAJORITY: 9183 (17.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Leicestershire. Part of the Charnwood council area.

Main population centres: Loughborough, Shepsted, Sileby, Quorn, Barrow upon Soar,.

Profile: The seat consists of the town of Loughborough, most widely associated with its famously sporty university, the dormitory town of Shepsted on the M1 to the west and smaller villages of the Soar valley to the east, including Sileby, Quorn and Barrow upon Soar. Quorn is associated with the famous Quorn hunt, although it actually left the village a century ago and is based elsewhere in Leicestershire. The meat substitute Quorn is also reportedly named after the village, but has no other connection to it.

Politics: Loughborough is a key marginal, having been won by the party that received the most seats at every general election since February 1974. Before that the seat contained part of the Leicestershire coalfield and was a safe Labour seat.


Current MP
NICKY MORGAN (Conservative) Born 1972, Kingston on Thames. Educated at Surbiton High School and Oxford University. Former solicitor. Contested Islington South 2001, Loughborough 2005. First elected as MP for Loughborough in 2010. Economic Secretary 2013-2014, Financial Secretary 2014. Education Secretary since 2014.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21971 (42%)
Lab: 18227 (34%)
LDem: 9675 (18%)
BNP: 2040 (4%)
Oth: 925 (2%)
MAJ: 3744 (7%)
2005*
Con: 17102 (37%)
Lab: 19098 (41%)
LDem: 8258 (18%)
UKIP: 1094 (2%)
Oth: 588 (1%)
MAJ: 1996 (4%)
2001
Con: 15638 (35%)
Lab: 22016 (50%)
LDem: 5667 (13%)
UKIP: 933 (2%)
MAJ: 6378 (14%)
1997
Con: 19736 (38%)
Lab: 25448 (49%)
LDem: 6190 (12%)
MAJ: 5712 (11%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICKY MORGAN (Conservative) See above.
MATTHEW O`CALLAGHAN (Labour) Educated at Ashby-de-la-Zouch Grammar School. Business consultant. Melton councillor and former Leicestershire councillor.
STEVE COLTMAN (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Selhurst Grammar School and Southampton University. Retired chemical projects manager.
BILL PIPER (UKIP) Educated at Royal Latin School.
MATT SISSON (Green)
Links
Comments - 397 Responses on “Loughborough”
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  1. I suspect it will go
    42% Labour
    30% Tory
    12% UKIP
    10% Liberal Democrat
    Gain for Labour

  2. I would be interested to know on what basis you are predicting a 10% swing for Labour in 2015.

  3. he’s bob under a different name

  4. Borderline WUM

  5. Labour selected early in this seat over two years ago, in fact at the time as Andy Sawford’s selection and they picked a local person who is a councillor and a doctor. Early selections are good for Labour in areas like this, especially now that it is clear that UKIP will rise in areas such as the East Midlands to the detriment of the Tory vote. However, if Labour cannot win here then it won’t get a majority.

  6. I’m a resident in the Loughborough constituency.

    I would be shocked if Nicky Morgan was re-elected.

  7. Ukip knocking on doors in the villages of woodhouse eaves montsorrel and quorn. Seems they are targeting nickys voting record on europe as she is more pro-european than gordon brown and ed miliband. Ukip claiming that nicky promised a referendum in 2010 and ukip will do anything to gret her out. Ukip playing the career politician voting inline with camerin for promotion and forgetting her campaign promises. Is ukip going to focus on tory mps who voted against the referendum in these marginals? Are they trying to makebhe tory party ukip in heart and soul?

  8. ‘Are they trying to makebhe tory party ukip in heart and soul?’

    That’s exactly what they are trying to do – and with a weak Tory leader with no real ambitions apart from to rule for the sake of it, they are doing a damn good job of it too

    Even Major – not exactly remembered as a strong leader – would never have caved in the Tory Right in the way David Cameron has.

    Of course he didn’t have UKIP to worry about – and his Tory Party – despite having a majority government – was nowhere near as right-wing as Mr Cameron’s

  9. If UKIP do serious damage to the Tory vote here this seat will end up with a new Labour MP. If Labour do pick up this seat I imagine they will be largest party overall. I still think it’s too early to tell however…

  10. I’m a resident in the Loughborough constituency.
    I would be shocked if Nicky Morgan was re-elected.

    Really? She comes across as quite pleasant when I see her on TV and I’m saying this as a Labour supporter.

    Is she a poor local MP then?

  11. @Christian

    You have summed Nicky up. If you want to promote a charity or promote a cause that requires her to attend for a photo, she is there. She is ALWAYS available for the photo. If you want to debate serious issues with her and caseworker, it’s wasting energy as the response is inadequate.

    We have serious issues in the constituency; why do we have no bus station? why do we have roads totally inadequate to handle traffic? why is the conservative council refusing to lower its buisness rates on the high street?

    She campaigns for mental health according to her website/twitter/leaflets but there has been a cut in mental health. There is only one mental health nurse in the constituency that works one day a week in the afternoon. The number of lactate nurses has been cut. The number of social workers has decreased. When you point this out to her and her caseworkers, they deny it by using national figures. We don’t even have a birthing centre in the town. Yet she supports a campaign for us to be a city but doesn’t understand what that entails.

    Some one summed it up really well where I work; she thinks Loughborough is Surrey.

  12. Alternatively, as a conservative, she might not want more social workers, but wants to fob you off so you leave her alone (im not trying to imply that you are a pain).

  13. ‘We have serious issues in the constituency; why do we have no bus station? why do we have roads totally inadequate to handle traffic? why is the conservative council refusing to lower its buisness rates on the high street?’

    But surely those are issues primarily for the council? I have rather Burkean views on what an MP’s role should be so I don’t personally have a problem with Ms Morgan’s approach.

  14. ‘Some one summed it up really well where I work; she thinks Loughborough is Surrey.’

    I do not see an association between Surrey and a lack of a bus station, roads that are inadequate for the traffic levels in the town and a campaign for Loughborough to be a city. I am afraid that if I am to understand the above comment you will have to explain what it is that makes Mrs Morgan think Loughborough is in Surrey.

  15. i don’t care about breastfeeding or social workers so i give her a clap

  16. Went out canvassing in Loughborough Ashby ward the other day and met the Labour PPC. He’s a nice guy, I think if he unseats Morgan he’ll be well liked.

    Voters on the doorstep not too enthusiastic about Labour. More popular than any of the other parties, but overall apathy seems to be common. Then again, it’s a local by-election so it may just be that.

    Also met Nicky Morgan a couple of years ago. I concur with what’s said above – she’s perfectly courteous but folds like a paper hat when pressed on issues.

  17. “Also met Nicky Morgan a couple of years ago. I concur with what’s said above – she’s perfectly courteous but folds like a paper hat when pressed on issues.”

    Well I never – an MP is perfectly courteous to an opponent but can’t see the point in getting into an argument when “pressed on the issues” by someone who, being an opposition activist, obviously isn’t going to vote for her. What are you going to tell us next – the pope is Catholic?

    With this kind of brainpower organising the Labour campaign I’m beginning to think the coalition might get re-elected after all.

  18. I wasn’t in Labour at the time and I’m not organising the Labour campaign, don’t worry.

  19. Very strong by-election result for Labour in Loughborough Ashby last night:

    Lab: 375 (71.8%)
    UKIP: 118 (22.6%)
    Con: 29 (5.6%)

    Looking at the ‘top’ figures (there were two seats up for grabs), the Conservatives managed 37.8% to Labour’s 62.2% in 2011.

  20. The ukip candidate cycled everyday from Quorn and knocked on the doors. I was doing some weeding at the time, when in the space of 25minutes, I recieved leaflets from labour and UKIP. Labour and UKIP were extremely active. Nothing came from the conservatives.

    A note to canvassers for political parties; please do not bang doors!!! My partner and I did not vote because we were put off by the constant leaflet dumping. I mean to bang on doors at 7.30 at night on the day of the election and offering to drive voters to the voting booth? Is that really necessary?

    The council policy never changes as there isn’t the numbers or seats for the party of overall control to change so it makes the election redundunt. Whether you have 5 labour councillors or 9 labour councillors, you will always have a minimum of 15-16 safe conservatives. Ask Nicky Morgans husband who was thrown the safe seat of Loughborough outwoods where he will never be kicked out no matter what he does. Is that democracy?

  21. I am sure that it’s annoying to have your door banged on – but, if you go and vote, and give your polling card number to the people on the door, they won’t bang on your door. Also, it’s a very odd reason not to vote, if I may be permitted to say so. I wouldn’t come to the conclusion that the country desperately needs a Labour government (my own preference), and then decide that, because they banged on my door, they aren’t therefore fit for government. 7.30 pm is well before the close of polls, and if you don’t want people to bang on your door, don’t promise your vote to a party & then not turn out.

  22. “A note to canvassers for political parties; please do not bang doors!!! My partner and I did not vote because we were put off by the constant leaflet dumping. I mean to bang on doors at 7.30 at night on the day of the election and offering to drive voters to the voting booth? Is that really necessary?”

    You should be pleased that people care about your vote.

  23. There’s been a couple of by-election results tonight, from two Charnwood wards that fall within the boundaries of the Loughborough constituency. Labour held Loughborough Hastings and have reportedly gained one seat of Shepshed West from the Conservatives (no UKIP candidate was fielded in the latter by-election).

  24. I think Shepshed used to be included in the NW Leicestershire seat until 1997.

  25. Shepshed has been in Loughborough for most of its history but was indeed in NW Leicestershire between 1983 and 1997.

  26. Strong Labour gain at Charnwood: Shepshed West by-election yesterday swing from the Conservatives was 9.4%, the Lib Dems losing 7.4%.

    D Horn (LibDem) 178
    J Lennie (Labour) 683
    J Tassell (Con) 560

  27. Labour Hold in Loughborough Hastings ward yesterday:

    S. Atkins (LibDem) 26
    S. Maynard Smith (Lab) 554
    A McWilliam (UKIP) 111
    J, Spence (Con) 127
    K Stafford (Other) 85

  28. Both Shepshed wards (east and west) have mixed representation (Labour and Conservative). They’re crucial ones which both parties need to secure votes from to ensure victory in 2015. Labour requires about a 3.5% swing overall to gain Loughborough, so 9.4% here is very decent, though there’s the obvious caveat that by-election turnouts are generally very low.

  29. There have been some incredibly low turnouts here. Is a lot of apathy kicking in in Loughborough?

  30. Does apathy “kick in” or “lay down”?

  31. If it’s a “Loughborough” ward then does it maybe cover the university and/or student housing? That could explain some of the low turn-out (as a ‘Lufbra’ alum myself I know I was pretty much the only one of my friends to bother voting in the 1999 Local/Euro elections so for them to vote in a byelection? I doubt it)

  32. I don’t think Kevan Stafford’s description on the ballot paper was ‘Other’ actually

  33. The shepshed result is easily explained. The conservative council have given planning permission for a gypsy site. Ridiculous decision for people of shepshed and loughborough ashby to have these people move in. Shepshed also has plans of having an incinerator built in its own back garden.

    What is more confusing is the councils decision to reject a waitross development at a site in between loughborough southfileds and the villages. Totally ridiculous!!! Gypsies yes. Incinerators yes. Housing developments in garendon, barrow-upon-soar and quorn that nobody wants, yes.

    The problem for residents is if you take charnwood council and leicestershite county council, the tories will never lose their majority. The numbers just aren’t there, so they have became unaccountable.

    Democracy is at its worse, when 90% of politicians know they will never be defeated.

  34. Wouldn’t you accept that the complete Labour domination of eg. Leicester city council is just as bad and just as undemocratic?

    I don’t like one-party councils either. Short of PR there’s not much that can be done about it though.

  35. I’m surprised that a Tory council would give planning permission to a gypsy site. I don’t think gypsy sites should be allowed, but still a bit surprised that they agreed to it.

  36. @ Hemming

    Applies to every political party. Anytime we have one-party rule it is bad for the community.

    Gypsies/travelers have landed on barrow/sileby//woodhouse eaves and it riled up the tory faithful. So the option was to dump them in a less tory area – Shepshed – kept the faithful happy.

  37. Another mistake by the council was to accept the gypsies and find them land to settle on. This has attracted gypseis/travellers from outside of the Loughborough constituency to come in. We now have the police, wasting time kicking caravans of farmer lands, lay bys etc as they think its a green light to settle on private land.

  38. Has anyone seen the full polling of the populus marginal polls?

    I was interviewed on the phone around december. The survey took 18minutes. Same populus questions as normal on the party leaders but more with local issue questions. Building on greenfields in barrow, shepshed and garendon kept being asked. At the end of the survey, I requested the results but I only got the results for Loughborough on the 12th february via e-mail. Has anyone seen any polling? I thought the constituency poll was for a ashcroft but with no media release, could it be an internal?

  39. Could you post the Loughborough results?

  40. Labour 41
    Conservative 35
    UKIP 13
    Lib Dem 7
    Other 4

    I’ve emailed populus to ask if i could put the whole poll from Loughborough as I can’t see it public. Maybe they are still doing it? Doesn’t the independent do a marginal poll?

  41. Nicky Morgan’s got a bit of work to do then. Interesting stuff, thanks.

  42. That suggests the same lead Labour are in nationally, basically. Therefore, if the 2 parties are competitive nationally, it would be very close indeed here – which is indeed what I expect to be the case.

  43. Nick Morgan in as Education Secretary.

    I must say I’m slightly questioning Cameron’s judgement here. I don’t know what she’ll be like as EdSec but she may well lose her seat next year and such a high-profile scalp is likely to draw in a lot of Labour attention on the seat.

  44. *Nicky Morgan, that is.

  45. This will be tight. I think Morgan’s profile now may help her, but you’re right to suggest she could be a high profile scalp. She’s a good face of the Tory party. She has a mild, friendly manner. She has the look and feel of a suburban mum.

    If labour win loughborough they’re looking at 310 seats +… I can see them on 300, but Miliband is very weak and I don’t think labour will do much better than this.

  46. I’d say it’s too close to call here. While they might not make 310 seats nationally (although personally I think they will) they still stand a decent chance of taking this if they win 300.

    UNS has jagged edges, and if (for example) UNS has them on 300 seats but it masks a good performance in the marginals because they do badly in their own seats or Scotland, Loughborough might fall.

    As I’ve commented elsewhere, there’s been a large amount of Labour activity in the seat, and the Tory membership fell 10% between 2012 and 2013.

  47. It will indeed be close may depend who can win over voters in Shepshed which seems competitive.

    I’m surprisd Nicky Morgan was promoted the Education Secretary. Liz Truss would’ve been Gove’s obvious successor. Perhaps Cameron thought Truss’ ideas would’ve led to another standoff with the teaching unions.

  48. Shepshed has been reasonably good territory for Labour in this parliament, but it’s fairly competitive. One could however say that to some extent about Loughborough itself, though it has some safe Labour wards. My current thinking is still a very, very close race. I make Morgan a very fractional favourite to hold on at present.

  49. The bookies have it evens at present, I would expect Morgan to hold, it will be close but I expect the Tories to do well in the East Midlands generally, this is a very mixed seat in terms of general affluence but I the trend in seats like this in the East Midlands is more conservative.

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