London Euro Candidates 2014

London returns eight MEPs. In 2009 it returned three Conservative MEPs, two Labour , one Liberal Democrat, one UKIP and one Green. Result results for 2009 are here.

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CLAUDE MORAES (Labour) Born 1965, India. Educated at Dundee University. Former director of the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants. MEP for London since 1999.
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MARY HONEYBALL (Labour) Born 1953, Weymouth. Former General Secretary of the Association of Chief Officers of Probation. MEP for London since 2000, suceeding upon the resignation of Pauline Green.
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LUCY ANDERSON (Labour) Trade Union officer. Former Camden councillor.
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SEB DANCE (Labour) Born in London. Charity worker and former special advisor to Sean Woodward. Partner of Spencer Livermore, Labour`s campaign director.

5. Ivana Bartoletti 6. Kamaljeet Jandu
7. Sanchia Alasia 8. Andrea Biondi
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SYED KAMALL (Conservative) Born 1967, London. Educated at Latymer School and Liverpool University. Former business consultant. Contested London assembly elections 2000, West Ham 2001. MEP for London since 2005, succeeding Theresa Villiers upon her election to Parliament.
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CHARLES TANNOCK (Conservative) Born 1957, Aldershot. Educated at Bradfield College and Oxford University. Former consultant psychiatrist. MEP for London since 1999.
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MARINA YANNAKOUDAKIS (Conservative) Born 1956, Paddington. Educated at Brunel University. Barnet councillor 2006-2010. MEP for London since 2009.
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CAROLINE ATTFIELD (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Independent Banking professional.

5. Lynne Hack 6. Sheila Lawlor
7. Gyln Chambers 8. Annesley Abercorn
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SARAH LUDFORD (Liberal Democrat) Born 1951. Former Islington councillor. MEP for London since 1999. Life peer since 1997, currently on leave of absence.
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JONATHAN FRYER (Liberal Democrat) Born 1950, Manchester. Educated at Manchester Grammar School. Journalist and writer. Bromley councillor 1986-1990. Contested Chelsea 1983, Orpington 1987, Leyton 1992, Poplar and Limehouse 2010. Contested London South-East 1979, 1987, 1994, London 1999, 2004, 2009 European elections.
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RICHARD DAVIS (Liberal Democrat) Educated at York University. Biochemist and risk analyst.
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ANUJA PRASHAR (Liberal Democrat) Born in Kenya. Educated at University of Michigan. University professor.

5. Rosina Robson 6. Turhan Ozen
7. Simon James 8. Matt McLaren
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GERARD BATTEN (UKIP) Born 1954, London. Former British Telecom salesman. Contested Barking by-election 1994, Harlow 1997, West Ham 2001, Dagenham 2005, London Mayoralty 2008. MEP for London since 2004.
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PAUL OAKLEY (UKIP) Educated at Bristol University. Barrister. Contested St Helens North 2005 for the Conservatives.
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ELIZABETH JONES (UKIP) Educated at Cardiff University. Solicitor. Contested West Dulwich and Norwood 2010.
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LAWRENCE WEBB (UKIP) Assistant to Gerard Batten and former electrician. Havering councillor. Contested Hornchurch 2005, London assembly list 2008, London 2009 European elections, Hornchurch and Upminster 2010, London mayoralty 2012.

5. Alastair McFarlane 6. Anthony Brown
7. Andrew McNeilis 8. Peter Whittle
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JEAN LAMBERT (Green) Born 1950, Orsett. Educated at Palmers Grammar School for Girls and Cardiff University. Former teacher. MEP for London since 1999.
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CAROLINE ALLEN (Green) Born 1974, Essex. Educated at Colchester county high and Cambridge University. Veterinary surgeon. Contested London region 2009 European elections.

3. Haroon Saad 4. Shahrar Ali
5. Danny Bates 6. Tracey Jo Hague
7. Violeta Vajda 8. Amelia Womack
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STEPHEN SQUIRE (BNP)
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DONNA TREANOR (BNP) Born in Dundee. Contested Bridgwater and West Somerset 2010.

3. Paul Sturdy 4. John Clarke
5. David Furness 6. Cliff Le May
7. Ray Underwood 8. Kevin Lazell
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LOUISE IRVINE (NHA Party) Born 1957, Paisley. Educated at Harlaw Academy and Aberdeen University. General practitioner.

2. Chidi Ejimofo 3. Marcus Chown
4. Kathryn Anderson 5. Rufus Hound
6. Jessica Ormerod 7. Andrew Sharp
8. Alex Ashman
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JENNY KNIGHT (English Democrats) Born in North Yorkshire. Educated at Bournemouth University. Communications manager. Contested Thornbury and Yate 2010 for UKIP.

2. Matthew Roberts 3. Maggie Young
4. Graham Clipperton 5. Gary Butler
6. Nick Capp 7. Louise Dutton
8. Natalie Smith
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EDWARD DEMPSEY (No2EU) Transport worker and RMT branch secretary.

2. Alexander Gordon 3. April Ashley
4. Annie Ngemi 5. Mary Davis
6. Paula Mitchell 7. Natasha Hoarau
8. Michael Carty
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VANESSA HUDSON (Animal Welfare) Born in Sheffield. Educated at Liverpool University. Media producer.

2. Alexander Bourke 3. Kirsteen Williamson-Guinn
4. Andrew Knight 5. Dimple Patel
6. Meg Mathews 7. Guy Dessoy
8. Ranjan Joshi
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SID CORDLE (CPA) Financial advisor. Former Sheffield councillor. Contested Sheffield Heeley 1983, Sheffield Hillsborough 1992 for the Conservatives, Sheffield Hallam 2005, Erith and Thamesmead 2010 for the CPA. Awarded the MBE in 1989 for political and public service.

2. Yemi Awolola 3. Ashley Dickenson
4. Sharmilla Swarna 5. Laurence Williams
6. Ethel Odiete 7. Kevin Nichols
8. Stephen Hammond
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GRAHAM WILLIAMSON (National Liberal)

2. Jagdeesh Singh 3. Sockalingam Yogalingam
4. Doris Jones 5. Upkar Singh Rai
6. Yussef Anwar 7. Araz Yurdseven
8. Bernard Dube
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PATRICK BURNS (An Independence from Europe) Born 1980, Maidstone. Educated at St Simon Stock Secondary and Anglia University. International press relations officer.

2. Marlene Daniel 3. Gareth Griffiths
4. Munpreet Bhathal 5. Sharon Greenfield
6. Eddie Yeoman 7. Fred Atkins
8. Jean Atkins
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DIRK HAZELL (4 Freedom) Born 1956. Educated at Cambridge. Barrister and chief executive. Former Merton councillor for the Conservative party. Contested Nottinghamshire North and Chesterfield 1994 European elections for the Conservatives, Chelsea and Fulham 2010 for the Liberal Democrats.

2. NoelleAnne O'Sullivan 3. Geoff Gibas
4. Aline Doussin 5. Andrew Bell
6. Deborah Phillips 7. Royston Flude
8. Brendan Donnelly
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KAMRAN MALIK (Communities United) Born 1967, East London. Lawyer. Contested West Ham 2010 as Independent.

2. Humera Kamran 3. Cydatty Bogie
4. Mary Coleman-Daniels 5. Idris Adan Ali
6. Reuben Edokpayi 7. Sunita Kaur Singh
8. Joanne Flanders
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TOMMY TOMESCU (Europeans Party) Born in Romania. Dentist.

2. Andrzej Rygielski 3. Vanessa Rodriguez
4. Robin Ashenden 5. Emil Rusanov
6. Georgios Papagrigorakis
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DAVID VINCENT (Harmony)
Comments - 69 Responses on “London European Candidates 2014”
  1. I think the result will be unchanged from 2009. 3 Tory, 2 Lab and 1 each for Lib Dem, UKIP and Green. Suppose there is a chance of Labour winning a 3rd seat with Cons losing one of theirs.

  2. Surely labour should beat the tories here?

  3. If you don’t how could you beat us nationally?

  4. Indeed, Labour surely must be beating the Conservatives here.

  5. Surely London is going to be: 3 Labour, 2 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem, 1 UKIP and 1 Green.

    Demographically it’s going that way.

    UKIP’s support in London is patchy, but surely they’ll be challenging the Tories in Havering, and parts of Bromley and Bexley too.

  6. I think the Tory vote will be more resilient here given the increasing house prices and investment coming in from overseas. I acknowledge that Labour can win 3 seats here but I just have this gut feeling that they’ll underperform in London compared to 2010.

  7. Seven seats seem safe (2/2/1/1/1).

    Up for grabs is the 8th seat, currently the third Tory seat. In 2009 the next in line were a third Labour seat, then a second LibDem seat. As I think Labour will come top the last seat is between a third Labour seat and whoever comes top of Greens or UKIP or the LibDems – most likely UKIP despite london not being their strongest area. However they would have to get more than 2/3 of the votes of the biggest party, which I don’t think is likely.

  8. Thing is many of those house prices reflect the fact that only foreigners not on the electoral register can afford them – its a huge number in London.

    It also means the votes of low-level PRS tenants and social housing occupiers matter more

  9. Surely Labour wuld gain that extra seat from the Tories especially if UKIP concentrate their canvassing in Havering, Bexley, Eltham, parts of Hillingdon, Barking & Dagenham and Bromley which would help to take votes away from the Conservatives (in most cases) and helping Labour win an additional seat.

    I’d be interested to know from UKIP exactly what parts of London they are going to target. I wonder i there are places further into London that may be OKish for them?

  10. I don’t see UKIP going above 1 seat in London. They did very well already in the places LBernard mentions in 2009. Since then the demographic change has worked against them and there is almost no potential for the in the rest of London. Demographic change meaning not just more ethnic minorities, but a white population which contains more wealthy people and fewer WWC and middling people will not be good for UKIP. This kind of change is certainly happening in Bromley where I wouldn’t be surprised if UKIP performed below expectations now.

  11. http://steveunclesenglishdemocrats.org/2014/03/16/english-democrats-2014-eu-elections-60-candidates-list-100-coverage-of-england/

    3 London 8
    Lead Candidate: – Jenny Knight
    Agent: – Steve Uncles
    Slogan: English Democrats – “Putting England First !”
    1/ Jenny Knight
    2/ Matthew Roberts
    3/ Maggi Young
    4/ Graham Clipperton
    5/ Gary Butler
    6/ Nick Capp
    7/ Louise Dutton
    8/ Natalie Smith

  12. For what it’s worth the National Liberal Party have stated that it will have a candidate list in London next month.

  13. Evening Standard Euro poll for the London region:

    Lab 33 (+12 on 2009)
    C 25 (-2)
    UKIP 24 (+13)
    L Dem 11 (-3)
    GP 5 (-6)
    Others 2

  14. Which I think would equate to LAB 3, CON 2, UKIP 2, LD 1, with the Greens losing their seat. That must be pretty worrying for the latter, and if UKIP do that well in London it would be an impressive performance.

  15. As the Euros are voted for using a proportional system, UKIP could come top in at least Havering. And I expect strong results in a few other boroughs with favourable demographics.

    But that poll does look surprising for them as they’re only a % below the Tories, especially as London overall isn’t their strongest region (demographics in many parts).

    The Greens are hurting due to several factors. The general left wing vote (Labour voters who boycotted their party at its lowest point, now ex-Lib Dem voters) is backing Labour, the overwhelming surge of UKIP crowding out small parties and an extremely poor leader in Natalie Bennett.

  16. To describe a London Euro poll putting UKIP on 24% as surprising is a bit of understatement to put it mildly. Maybe UKIP are doing unexpectedly well in Camden due to HS2, but that would only account for a small uplift for the party.

  17. It is indeed if you consider that their appeal would realistically be confined to a handful of boroughs at most. Havering, Bexley, parts of Hillingdon?

  18. The UKIP vote was only the same as the Greens in London in 2009. So I’m not surprised it has the potential to double and the Green vote may halve. From memory there’s quite a lot of BNP/Libertas/Jury/Ind votes for UKIP to mop up. Although 2% for Others in the poll is still too low given that 10%+ tend to vote for them in some boroughs.

  19. Others including BNP took 16% in 2009 across London. The poll puts them on 2% so 14% available to pick up.

  20. How are you working that out Christian? To get the 8th seat you need to get a third as many seats as the top party with 2. And I really don’t think that many seats will be safe. Comparing the last election, Labour seems to do about 6% better nationally than in London, UKIP about 6% worse, Greens about 3% better. Lib Dems and Tories seem to do about the same.

    Given that, there’s no way that I can see the Lib Dems and the Greens both winning a seat here: with 8 seats, the threshold seems to be about 9% of the vote, which they’re both nearly at, but not quite there. Once one of the two crosses the threshhold, then the effective threshold for the other is about 11.5%. D’Hondt is complicated. There’s certainly a competition between one of them and a 4th Labour seat, though.

    UKIP seem likely to get 2 here, unless Lib Dem and Green votes put together come to more than UKIP votes.

  21. Updated to reflect full candidate list

  22. Some interesting names on those Lists!

  23. By London standards, a tiny ballot paper…

  24. Averaging around 2.50 – 3% of the London vote in consecutive GLA and Euro elections since 2000, the Christian Peoples Alliance always counts for a large share of support for ‘Others’. In 2009, the option polled 2.9% for Europe in London despite zero media coverage. Given Christian Democracy is the biggest electoral force in European politics, there is potential here. A fair target would be what other north European and Scandanavian Christian parties achieve – around 7-8% of the vote.

  25. I’m Voting Vanessa Hudson Animal Welfare Party. I am fed up with nothing changing with con/lib/lab and UKIP is obviously insidious. I want a better world for animals and the Animal Welfare Party is pledging to end all Animal experiments and to stop cruel and un-necessary live transport of animals to eu slaughterhouses.

  26. Comments Policy.

  27. Welcome to the site, CC. Good to have someone posting here with the perspective of one of the smaller parties.

    I do believe you’re wrong though. 7-8% may be what you consider a fair target, but it’s not a realistic one, and the CPA would do well not to pin their hopes on that. If the party were on their way to near tripling their vote, we would have seen evidence of that in polls. And unless the CPA is capable of running a well-publicised campaign, which I doubt, it’s not going to make up the distance. Not that I think it could anyway – if the Evening Standard poll is any indication, your party’s support would be competing with the Greens, and that just won’t be happening this election cycle.

    The fact that Christian democracy is a big movement across Europe won’t automatically make it so here. If anything, I’d rather say the CPA won’t make much headway for this election. The smaller number of options on the ballot as compared to 2009, will probably mean the CPA will draw some more votes, and maybe it will attract a slither of disaffected socially-conservative voters, but it will probably lose voters from 2009 who were rather more angry with the political class, as per expenses. Not quite the same emotions going around right now.

  28. CON 19%, LAB 28%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 31%, GREEN 8%

    If people voted in the local elections the same way that they voted in the Euro Elections UKIP would gain a 1000 Conservative council seats.

    My view is that the Euro vote occurring on the same day as the Euro elections will help UKIP win many Conservative council seats that they would not expect to win on a stand alone council elections but the Conservatives will poll more strongly in the local government elections than in the Euro poll and UKIP much less. Something like –

    CON 29%, LAB 32%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 17%, GREEN 4%

    This would be the adjusted stats to reflect the fact that more Labour areas are voting this year.

  29. I think we could expect something along the lines of:

    Labour: 24% (3)
    Conservative: 22% (2)
    UKIP: 18% (2)
    Liberal Democrat: 9% (1)
    Green Party: 7% (0)
    Others: 20%

  30. Just received a Labour party leaflet for the Euro Parliament election.The one with Ed M.on the front with strap line Only Labour will tackle the cost of living crises.Apart from 4-5 lines saying that their MEP’s will fight for jobs and growth none of the rest of the leaflet has anything to do with what MEP,s of any party can acheive in the Euro Parliament.
    The rest is all about what a future Labour government in Whitehall or London GLA will promise.
    Can parties use Euro election campaigning funds on national campaigns?

  31. Ozzimandius – it’s their money, they can spend it on whatever message they see fit.

    Indeed, they can use their free election mailing on whatever message they see fit – hence the way you occassionally get candidates standing for purely commercial advertising purposes, like Mr Mozzerella and the Don’t Eat Party or the Miss Great Britain party.

  32. Oh! well live and learn,still waiting for that bit of paper from any party that explains what they will do in Europe that deserves my vote.

  33. I’ve had that Labour leaflet, too. The Tory leaflet looks more expensively produced and also talks a lot about national politics (e.g. “A strong economy at home”, “cut the deficit”, “create more jobs”, “cut tax”, “cap welfare”).

    Nonetheless, in London Labour will surely win. I think three seats is the most likely outcome for us, though I’ve not completely given up hope of us winning four. Either the Tories will also get three and UKIP two or they will both be on two with either the Lib Dems or the Greens squeezing a single seat (or possibly Labour snatching a 4th one, though unlikely).

    Has anyone worked out how the latest London-wide Euro poll would translate into seats in the capital? I can’t quite get my head around the formula, though I understand that it’s not quite a ‘proportional’ system (in the sense that bigger parties are still overrepresented).

    If we could somehow win four seats in London it would be a head start on the Tories and UKIP in the rest of the country. Personally I am terrified by the latest UK-wide Euro poll which puts un in third place, though it is close: Tories 27%, Labour 24%, UKIP 26%.

    That represents an advance of just eight points on our 2009 Euro election debacle.

  34. I still have a hard time imagining UKIP doing well enough to get more than one seat in London, though I accept that polls have indicated they will, and not all of them mere subsamples.

  35. For the London region, I’m predicting:

    3 Labour
    2 Conservative
    1 UKIP
    1 Lib Dem
    1 Green

  36. My region-by-region prediction for the Euros in Great Britain leads to a surprisingly close overall result with UKIP on 21 seats, the Conservatives on 20, Labour on 19, the Lib Dems on 5 and the Greens sticking with 2.

    Aggregating the vote shares I’ve predicted (and weighting for the individual electoral regions,) the Conservatives and UKIP would be tied on 22.1%, Labour slightly behind on 21.9%, the Lib Dems on 9.4% and the Greens around 8%.

    Anyone else think it’s going to be an extremely close run thing, with perhaps the winning party not being the party with the highest overall vote share?

  37. Why would you think the Conservatives and UKIP are going to be tied when the polls show them a distant third?

  38. Thats not really true. Its a pretty tight 3rd. We were 1st in a recent poll.

  39. Looking at the latest polls, I concede it’s not so-distant anymore. Nevertheless, 1 poll does not make a trend – do you really think the Conservatives are going to end up in first place?

  40. No. fraid not.

  41. I’m pretty certain the three top parties will each win between 19 and 21 seats – I predict UKIP on 21, the Tories on 20 and Labour on 19, with less than 1% of votes separating these three.

    The Tories will top the poll in the South East.
    Labour will in Wales, both Northern regions and Yorkshire.
    UKIP will in East Anglia, both Midlands regions and the South West.
    The SNP will in Scotland, and the Lib Dems will…nowhere!

  42. Only an idiot would claim to be “pretty certain” of the result of Euro elections. Due to the electoral system used every percentage change in vote share impacts seat totals directly, and there is no consensus as to even what order the parties will come in. The polls have been literally all over the place.

  43. Well unfortunately I’m not as well versed in idiocy as you seem to be, so I can’t comment on the first line of your post.

    What I can say though is that in the same vein we can ‘reasonably assert’ that Labour will hold Easington in 2015, we can estimate which party will top the poll in most regions. I think the most difficult to predict is the East Midlands, but am of the view UKIP will just manage to top the Tories.

  44. If you take a look at the final five published polls in the 2009 Euro election campaign, the average worked out as Con 27%; Lab 18%; UKIP 16%. In other words, the polls over-estimated Labour by a couple of points and underestimated UKIP slightly. They were spot-on for the Tories. I would be interested to know from Anthony if most of the polls then (as now) used a turnout weighting mechanism.

    For the record, the last five polls in this campaign average out at Con 23%; Lab 27%; UKIP 28%, so compared to the final five in 2009 the Tories are down 4, Labour are up 9 and UKIP are up 12. (In case you’re wondering why these figures don’t add up it’s because the Lib Dems, Greens and UKIP are all down).

    I fear that UKIP are going to pip Labour to the post and it’s not inconceivable that the Tories could also out-poll Labour – though on current form the balance of probability is that Labour will just take 2nd place.

    (I’m talking in terms of the nationwide vote here, folks).

    In London I reckon Lab 3, Con 2, UKIP 2 with the Greens possibly taking the 8th seat.

    Incidentally, H.Hemmelig is usually quite astute in his commentary but he’s not being entirely fair by saying that the polls are “literally all over the place”. Most (though not all) of the variation can be explained by methodological differences relating to whether or not pollsters factor in likelihood of voting.

    Here is a link to the table of Euro election polls which AW had compiled. It makes interesting reading…

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/european-elections

  45. We have had polls with all 3 parties in the lead. That to me sounds like a reasonable definition of the polls being all over the place. I stand by my assertion that it’s pretty impossible to call who is going to win. Like Andy I’ll believe a second UKIP seat in London when I see it. London will be an easy Labour win.

  46. Another big UKIP lead in the latest ComRes national European elections poll.

  47. Laurence Williams, who is the 5th candidate on the London Christian Peoples’ Alliance list (having only joined the CPA within a fortnight of the election kick off), has now defected to the National Liberal Party (who are also standing a slate of candidates in London) several days before polling…

    The story is on the front page of the NLP site:

    http://nationalliberal.org/

  48. Anyone else having a bit of a flutter on the Euros? Please, someone tell me if this is something we’re not permitted to discuss here..

  49. Not me, but a friend has a fiver on that Labour will come second in vote share but first in seats. Very risky bet in a PR election!

  50. I don’t see that happening personally, but fair play to your friend!

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