Llanelli

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5534 (14.3%)
Labour: 15948 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 751 (1.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 8853 (23%)
Green: 689 (1.8%)
UKIP: 6269 (16.3%)
TUSC: 123 (0.3%)
Others: 407 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 7095 (18.4%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
NIA GRIFFITH (Labour) Born 1956, Dublin. Educated at Newland High School for Girls and Oxford University. Former teacher and school inspector. First elected as MP for Llanelli in 2005. Shadow Welsh Secretary since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 5381 (14%)
Lab: 15916 (42%)
LDem: 3902 (10%)
PC: 11215 (30%)
Oth: 1047 (3%)
MAJ: 4701 (13%)
2005
Con: 4844 (14%)
Lab: 16592 (47%)
LDem: 4550 (13%)
PC: 9358 (26%)
MAJ: 7234 (20%)
2001
Con: 3442 (10%)
Lab: 17586 (49%)
LDem: 3065 (8%)
PC: 11183 (31%)
Oth: 922 (3%)
MAJ: 6403 (18%)
1997
Con: 5003 (12%)
Lab: 23851 (58%)
LDem: 3788 (9%)
PC: 7812 (19%)
Oth: 757 (2%)
MAJ: 16039 (39%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SELAINE SAXBY (Conservative) Born 1970. Educated at Cambridge University. Sports bra retailler.
NIA GRIFFITH (Labour) See above.
CEN PHILLIPS (Liberal Democrat)
KEN REES (UKIP)
GUY SMITH (Green)
VAUGHAN WILLIAMS (Plaid)
SIAN CAIACH (People First)
SCOTT JONES (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 75 Responses on “Llanelli”
  1. Safe for Labour barring a big push by Plaid, but might this be a seat in Wales where the Lib Dems lose their deposit?

  2. The Lib Dems will certainly lose their deposit in Blaenau Gwent and Ynys Mon. They will probably lose it here as well on a General election turnout.

  3. Could Rhondda be added to the list?

    I wonder how many seats there will be in England where the Lib Dems could potentially fall below 5%?

  4. Prediction for 2015-
    Griffith (Labour)- 46%
    Plaid Cymru- 35%
    Conservative- 11%
    UKIP- 5%
    Liberal Democrats- 3%

  5. I have been thinking about the various Labour “rotten boroughs” in Wales and their fate at the next redistricting in 2019.. the last abortive attempt at this was sunk by Clegg to thwart the Tories and ironically shall probably play to Labour’s advantage next year. However seeing the debate on Redcar whether labour will get higher vote share of seat share reminded me that their is a potential freight train heading labour’s way in 2019.

    Would be interesting to hear views on how Labour will manage, if in government, what is clearly a danger of a hefty seat loss if equity is introduced into numbers of voters per constituency (I posted it here because this is just one of various egregious examples).

    I would remind that the failed redistricting last time would have abolished ten labour seats in Wales alone, if I recall rightly

  6. Labour will benefit from the next redistricting. They will change the rules so that population determines constituency size rather than electorate. The massive rise in London’s population will therefore help them significantly. I also expect the stricter rules on max/min electorate of constituencies will be dropped.

  7. Interesting point on London.. makes sense.. but wouldn’t you say London has already been drawn massively in Labour’s favour.. particularly the southern suburbs?

  8. London will surely get more seats in the next review, given the explosion in the population in recent years, in the inner boroughs especially. If rules are changed such that population becomes the determinant, London will get masses of new seats, due to the large number of non-citizens in the capital.

  9. Then London will replace Wales as the new land of the rotten borough

  10. Yes, with Tower Hamlets and Newham the rottenest bits.

  11. What will lose the most seats, though?

  12. I can see the Labour majority staying about the same here, and even if it does increase it might be slight.

  13. It sounds like some Balkanisation will take place… I wonder if the gentrification might NOT play against Labour’s hand.. places like Southwark have changed a lot and even Elephant & Castle (perish the thought) is moving up in the world..maybe Mitcham is the new Elephant?

    It is rather paradoxical that as London becomes super expensive (in all aspects) and by far the best paid part of the country there is a lumpen voting Labour that might carry the day (at least for a while)… at what point will the masses be eventually priced out of everything except the social housing and then a massive tilt back towards the Tories might occur? All these new EU residents in London must have displaced someone to somewhere, and most probably it was those lower down the economic totem pole getting pushed out.. it almost always is..

  14. It’s an interesting question….received wisdom is that it is ordinary middle class families who have left London to the greatest extent, taking their Tory vote to Herts, Essex, Surrey etc. Their former owner occupied houses then rented out and the areas go downhill. You’re right that there must eventually be a later stage which is bound to benefit the Tories to a certain extent, certainly if social housing starts to be moved out of London to cheaper outlying areas.

  15. Selaine Saxby selected for Tories:

    http://www.selainesaxby.com/

  16. This looks like it had a weird result in 1997, as one of the few seats without the LDs in contention which had only a quite small swing to Labour. Were the boundary changes after 1992 not to Labour’s advantage or was it a product of having a Welsh leader in 1992?

  17. 1992 result:

    Lab 27802
    Con 8532
    PC 7878
    LD 6404

    1992 notional:

    Lab 25,122
    Con 7,851
    PC 7,253
    LD 5,884

  18. London wise I’m sure there is going to come a point in the next generation where the proportion of BAME voters becomes far less of a benefit to Labour than it currently is.

    The Tories are always likely to trail Labour in that demographic due to having a larger proportion of… how do I phrase it in the most politically neutral way… “white descendants of wealthy people” among their senior ranks, but social mobility should narrow the gap regardless of which party is deemed to have done most to bring that about.

  19. Nonsense Chris, we tories also have significant and increasing number of black and asian descendants of wealthy people too.

  20. prediction for 2015-

    lab- 43%
    PC- 33%
    con- 12%
    Lib- 7%
    UKIP- 5%

    PC wil rise, labour a slight increase , UKIP’s vote picks up a little and the lib dems decline but stay in fourth. I think that there will be very little change here however.

  21. Have been hearing from people on the ground that Ukip are gaining quite a lot o support from Llanelli town itself (they havent picked a candidate yet) and that Plaid Cymru are gaining votes from Labour in the Gwendraeth Valley, and the candidate seems to be quite active on the ground. Could be an interesting seat to watch.

  22. Been a fair bit of money for Plaid to gain this seat, odds have fallen from 16/1 to 5/1 in the space of a couple of weeks.

    http://politicalbookie.com/2015/01/05/betting-points-to-plaid-cymru-gains-at-general-election/?hootPostID=1504f0d4f06716a561962a6b6ec3e4eb

  23. Sian Caiach is standing as an independent here, making it impossible for plaid to gain this seat.
    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/maverick-independent-sian-caiach-contest-8386444

  24. I agree with Penyfro. This seat is one to watch as Labour could lose it in May. Labour need to squeeze the Lib Dem vote if they’re going to hold on here

  25. That’s not even close to what Penyfro said. He said Plaid can’t gain the seat.

  26. to be fair i did say at first it would be close, and may have overstated the impossibility of plaid gaining the seat due to sian caiach’s candidacy – but she will hinder their chances like she did in the assembly elections in 2011.

  27. This is one of several seats in W Wales – in fact, it probably applies to all of them – where Plaid do considerably better in Assembly than in Westminster elections. Every contest here for the Assembly has been a close one between Plaid & Labour, but Labour’s majority has not dropped below one of about 6,500 in the Westminster seat, and is rather more than that at the moment. I think that this phenomenon will continue – certainly Albert Owen in Ynys Mon will very hope that it till! – and that Nia Griffith will hold the seat without undue difficulty.

  28. There’s a by-election in the labour held hengoed ward, 6 candidates are standing including Ukip, Plaid and labour. Could tell us a lot about the general election – how well ukip will do and at who’s expense, how likely Plaid are to win this seat (Labour have thrown a lot at this by-election with the sitting MP Nia Griffiths out on the campaign trail often, a sign that she is worried?).

  29. It might well tell us nothing at all. This constituency has consistently seen Labour do better in Westminster elections than local or Assembly ones, and I’d be surprised if that didn’t continue.

  30. I disagree, i think that if there were a significant swing in one direction (or no swing at all) it will be telling – not only that but a win for any party would be a boost for their local campaign for the general election and likewise a loss would be disheartening.

  31. Also, couple of labour cabinet ministers out canvassing today in hengoed – vaughan gething and alun davies!

  32. There’s nothing remotely surprising in that. Labour MPs or AMs are often willing to travel considerable distances to help in elections. Only yesterday I canvassed in Ealing with Jon Ashworth, MP for Leicester S.

  33. In the end

    Lab 33.2%
    PC 31.0%
    UKIP 15.0%
    PF: 7.9%
    Ind 7.5%
    Con 5.3%

  34. Interesting thanks Andrea.

    Llanelli is arguably West Wales rather than South Wales. I don’t see PC winning it in May; that result indicates what I’d expect to happen, a Labour win but with a reduced majority. Perhaps about 3,000.

    However if at some stage Plaid were to get parliamentary representation beyond the rural West and North West Wales seats they have now or have previously held Llanelli would be the obvious one I think, based on past relatively close results for the parliamentary seat and given it’s more West Wales leaning than the core traditional Labour South Wales proper seats.

  35. A local by-election on a tiny turnout on a wet Thursday in February means diddly squat in terms of the general election. Easy Labour hold here (5000 plus).

  36. Labour hold. 6,000 majority

  37. For those of us liberal-leaning types who voted for the Lib Dems in 2010 but have since sworn never to vote for them again (on account of their record during the last five years in coalition), the choice in Wales is either Labour or Plaid. There does not appear to be any serious interest in the Greens.

    In Llangennech, north of Llanelli town, the hedge placards and the window posters are 60/40 Plaid-Labour and straw polls confirm an increase in those intending to vote for or considering voting for Plaid. I have as yet to see a poster for UKIP.

    If in 2010, 3902 people voted for the Lib Dems and I doubt that many will continue to. If so, Plaid is a better fit than Labour for liberal voters and such a swing could mean that if Vaughan Williams doesn’t win, he gets impressively close.

  38. Looking at Election Forecast, Yougov Nowcast and FiveThirtyEight sites, seems like Plaid are in real contention with Labour here. Don’t think that Vaughan Williams will quite make it, but it will be a great platform to ensure that Helen Mary definitely wins Llanelli in the assembly election.

  39. I think this is the only seat in Wales that Plaid Cymru have truly managed to take and keep votes from Labour over the past 15 years or so (apart from neighbouring Carms East & Dinefwr) and make any serious progress. Still I don’t think it’ll be quite enough – I think the result may well be similar to the last election albeit a little closer.

    Put it like this, if PC do take it, it’ll be pretty much the biggest shock in Wales come Friday.

  40. I agree Jasper.
    Different parts of the electorate vote in very different ways.
    Llanelli town itself is the bastion of the Labour vote, though there are rumours that this has leaked off to UKIP.

  41. Wow. That was actually quite a pathetic rwult for PC.

  42. Yes, there were rumours of PC possibly snatching this seat. A good result for Labour here.

  43. Prediction Plaid to gain by 1000-1250 votes

  44. Talking of safe seats, I only just spotted the big UKIP vote here.

  45. Indeed. Plus being a seller of sport bras has to be one of the most interesting job descriptions of a PPC.

  46. Nia Griffith to tell Corbyn to resign. I presume if he does not then she will then resign from the shadow cabinet and from her post as shadow welsh secretary( With no obvious replacement unless its combined with another role or Paul Flynn becomes a frontbencher)

  47. Nia Griffith returns to the shadow cabinet as Labour’s fifth Shadow Defence Secretary sine 2015 following Coaker, Eagle, Thornbury and Lewis. Lewis switches to Business.

  48. She is a committed unilaterislist which doesn’t give the best impression that the pro trident policy wont change again.

  49. A perfect example of you breaking your promise not to breach the comments policy! Which tempts others to do likewise.

    I’m no fan of Labour’s defence policies nevertheless if you seriously think that Theresa May would go to Estonia’s rescue without US involvement you are an even more gullible fool than I imagined. Trump wouldnt lift a finger to help Estonia and the Russians wouldn’t invade if they thought he would.

  50. H.H. don’t give into that.

    Conservative Estimate you’ve been warned countless times.

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