2015 Result:
Conservative: 5534 (14.3%)
Labour: 15948 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 751 (1.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 8853 (23%)
Green: 689 (1.8%)
UKIP: 6269 (16.3%)
TUSC: 123 (0.3%)
Others: 407 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 7095 (18.4%)

Category: Safe Labour seat


Main population centres:



Current MP
NIA GRIFFITH (Labour) Born 1956, Dublin. Educated at Newland High School for Girls and Oxford University. Former teacher and school inspector. First elected as MP for Llanelli in 2005. Shadow Welsh Secretary since 2015.
Past Results
Con: 5381 (14%)
Lab: 15916 (42%)
LDem: 3902 (10%)
PC: 11215 (30%)
Oth: 1047 (3%)
MAJ: 4701 (13%)
Con: 4844 (14%)
Lab: 16592 (47%)
LDem: 4550 (13%)
PC: 9358 (26%)
MAJ: 7234 (20%)
Con: 3442 (10%)
Lab: 17586 (49%)
LDem: 3065 (8%)
PC: 11183 (31%)
Oth: 922 (3%)
MAJ: 6403 (18%)
Con: 5003 (12%)
Lab: 23851 (58%)
LDem: 3788 (9%)
PC: 7812 (19%)
Oth: 757 (2%)
MAJ: 16039 (39%)

2015 Candidates
SELAINE SAXBY (Conservative) Born 1970. Educated at Cambridge University. Sports bra retailler.
NIA GRIFFITH (Labour) See above.
CEN PHILLIPS (Liberal Democrat)
SIAN CAIACH (People First)
Comments - 75 Responses on “Llanelli”
  1. Conservative Estimate you just said “You can’t trust Labour on defence.”

    It’s actually very embarrassing that you’re both fighting like little kids on this site.

  2. Not just that but one of us IS actually a little kid 🙂

    You’re right I should resist the temptation. But regurgitating press releases from party HQ should IMO lead to the said post being deleted.

    Con Est – which party do you think I’m partisan in favour of?

  3. The comments policy is there for a reason, and if you’re not careful someone could report you. It’s for your good that you follow it more than for mine.

  4. NTY I suggest you look back at some past posters eg Frédéric Stansfield to see how hard it is for complaints to be addressed on here. Not that it’s hard to understand why Anthony wouldn’t want to waste time on being a referee. You’re right on the issue though.

  5. Iain Dale’s just called a Plaid gain here. Cannot see it personally but it depends which way the UKIP vote crumbles. If Lab lose this seat they are in for a long night. It’s the kind of seat they’d only lose if they got less than 150 seats overall.

  6. The local elections will be a useful guide. gains for plaid would get the westminster campaign off to a good start.

  7. Nia Griffith must be very concerned about her chances here. She is missing from the Labour Manifesto launch due to campaigning here.

  8. Who is she worried about? Plaid presumably but there is no evidence that Plaid are mounting any sort of major insurgency and their anti Brexit stance is hardly going to go down well in this heavily Leave seat. Plus Plaid is (by all accounts) hardly rolling in money or active members so what with their obvious targets in Ceredigion and Anglesey and the less obvious target of Rhonnda that wouldn’t leave much in the way of resources for this which amounts to at best an outside chance?

  9. I expect this is much more to do with Griffith being the latest Shad Defence Sec struggling to work with Corbyn. She also sat out Corbyn’s defence speech last week, when other shad cab members with foreign affairs briefs attended.

    This seat was in the past a key Plaid target, but having not got anywhere of late they seem to have switched their focus to Rhondda.

  10. There must be a good chance of the Tories coming second but they would appear to have a ceiling of 30% or so, probably not enough to beat Labour.

  11. I presume Plaid are still targeting it. They came very close in the assembly election last year.

  12. Plaid will put some effort in yes, but they’ll fall short. Plaid had a ‘Super Saturday’ campaign day last weekend and looking at the photos on twitter it it didn’t look that super to me.

    BM11 – If you look at the results from the five Assembly elections to date, whilst Plaid were close, they have actually never been further away from winning it having won it twice and lost it three times by 21, 80 and now by 382.

    What will be interesting is what happens to the UKIP Vote – I think we can safely assume most of it will go to the Conservatives while some will of course stay at home. I would put a metaphorical fiver on a fairly easy Labour hold with the Conservatives getting a very good third place behind Plaid.

    As for Nia Griffiths absence today – was every other shadow minister present? I don’t think she was too busy to attend (that’s the media making mischief) I just think she had better things to do!

  13. I think the only other ones missing were also in seats in considerable danger. I think its the fact she has missed two important events.

  14. Plaid position on brexit is to accept the result and look to make the most of it. Plaid MPs, rightly, voted against article 50 motion because of the broken promises on replacing the funding from the EU. A “bad” brexit would be bad news indeed for the welsh economy but it doesnt have to be a disaster.

  15. “Plaid’s position on Brexit is to accept the result” Oh do pull the other one: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36702245

    Within a month of Wales voting to leave, Plaid were publicly talking of Wales leaving the UK only to re-enter the EU.

    Whilst we don’t know the results of the referendum on a seat by seat basis, Plaid friends have told me (somewhat through desperation) that this seat voted massively for Brexit (where as Carmarthen East voted remain).

  16. Plaid need to accept that their pro Europe, pro Independence socialist rhetoric isn’t going to work everywhere and that Wales is far more right wing and eurosceptic than they or Leanne will ever admit.

    Conservatives and UKIP won 30% of the vote here in 2015 remember.

    (I apologise I don’t know why my post got cut in half)

  17. Plaid fell to third here in their worst result since 1992.

    There were big issues regarding a candidate being ‘forced’ on them by Plaid HQ in Cardiff. The ramifications have been rumbling on since and have come to a head today with the town’s branch being suspended: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-43169114

  18. I only just spotted that ex MP Denzel Davies passed away, the day after his 80th birthday in October.

    He opposed both the Welsh Assembly and the EU and was a rare super brain having a First in Law.

  19. He moonlighted extensively as a barrister towards the end of his parliamentary career…commuting to my first job in the late 90s every morning I walked past the chambers with his name on the plaque, on Grays Inn Road.

  20. Yes, a head of chambers is rare these days in politics.

    I think only Irvine or Falconer maybe were whilst in the Lords.

    Although a fair few backbenchers still earn a lot as lawyers – but not as many as yesteryear.

  21. 5 Labour County Cllrs and 4 Labour Town Cllrs have defected to form Ind Groups here.

    Those leaving include the former Group Leader who cited bullying in the Party.

  22. Is this “The” Independent Group or just “an” independent group?

    It’s like those riveting arguments about customs unions all over again…

  23. TIG isn’t yet a Party to defect to.

    Ind Group.

  24. Looking likely Nia Griffth will resign/be sacked as shadow defence sec. Her comments of solder prosecutions have caused the corbynite wing of the Labour party to errupt. Impossible for her to survive this.

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