Liverpool, West Derby

2015 Result:
Conservative: 2710 (6.6%)
Labour: 30842 (75.2%)
Lib Dem: 959 (2.3%)
Green: 996 (2.4%)
UKIP: 3475 (8.5%)
Liberal: 2049 (5%)
MAJORITY: 27367 (66.7%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Merseyside. Part of the Liverpool council area.

Main population centres: Liverpool.

Profile: Liverpool is the once great port city of the north west, sunk deep in economic deprivation yet ever proud of its art, music and culture. This seat covers the west of Liverpool, consisting of the West Derby, Norris Green, Knotty Ash, Tuebrook and Croxteth areas. The outlying parts of the seat, the large housing estates of Norris Green and Croxteth both suffer from problems of gangs and violence and the constituency suffers from high levels of people on unemployment or sickness benefits.

Politics: Liverpool is dominated by the Labour party, they have easily won all the Parliamentary seats here since the abolition of the Liberal Democrat held Liverpool Mossley Hill in 1997. Liverpool West Derby is an unusual seat as one of the last holdouts of the old continuing Liberal party, those who rejected the merger with the SDP in 1989. The Liberal party strength in concentrated in the Tuebrook and Stoneycroft ward, represented by the paty`s president Steve Radford who has contested the last four elections for the party and managed to come second in 1997 and 2001. This is, however, as much a symptom of Liberal Democrat and Conservative weakness here than of a huge amount of Liberal support - the Labour party here are utterly, overwhelmingly dominant at a Parliamentary level..


Current MP
STEPHEN TWIGG (Labour) Born 1966, Enfield. Educated at Southgate School and Oxford University. Former general secretary of the Fabian Society. Islington councillor 1992-1997. MP for Enfield Southgate 1997-2005. First elected as MP for Liverpool West Derby in 2010. junior minister privy council office 2001-2002, education 2002-2004, Minister of State for Education 2004-2005. Shadow Education Secretary 2011-2013.
Past Results
2010
Con: 3311 (9%)
Lab: 22953 (64%)
LDem: 4486 (13%)
UKIP: 1093 (3%)
Oth: 3941 (11%)
MAJ: 18467 (52%)
2005*
Con: 2567 (8%)
Lab: 19140 (63%)
LDem: 3915 (13%)
UKIP: 538 (2%)
Oth: 4304 (14%)
MAJ: 14836 (49%)
2001
Con: 2486 (8%)
Lab: 20454 (66%)
LDem: 3366 (11%)
Oth: 4601 (15%)
MAJ: 15853 (51%)
1997
Con: 3656 (9%)
Lab: 30002 (71%)
LDem: 3805 (9%)
Oth: 4037 (10%)
MAJ: 25965 (62%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Liverpool, West Derby

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ED MCRANDAL (Conservative)
STEPHEN TWIGG (Labour) See above.
PAUL TWIGGER (Liberal Democrat) Former Liverpool councillor. Contested Liverpool West Derby 2010.
NEIL MINEY (UKIP)
REBECCA LAWSON (Green)
STEVE RADFORD (Liberal)
Links
Comments - 142 Responses on “Liverpool West Derby”
  1. Michael Meadowcrofts son was a Lib Dem.

    Andrew Meadowcroft was the first Lib Dem to win Avenue Ward in Hull and also fought Hull North in 1992.

    Perhaps it was the family connection that brought him back into that fold.

    Andrew Meadowcroft, however, seems to have vanished off the political map.

  2. Well Green membership here was up 45% to the end of May on 2013 and is still growing strongly. @TheGreenParty trended on Twitter in Liverpool at the time. I think the Greens could win Riverside, I mean if Labour doesn’t want the 5 Liverpool seats as it would seem, the Greens would be more than happy to tske them 🙂

  3. Dalek – as Barnaby says, Michael Meadowcroft joined the LibDems after being Liberal Party President for years. A few who were Libs even in 2005 (eg Nigel Ashton in Sefton) joined the LibDems too. The Liberal Party even had a PPB and scores of PPCs back in 1992. But their height here was 1998 when they won 2 wards and came within 100 votes in 2 more. Clubmoor ward was where they had 3 Cllrs to add to their Tuebrook 3, but the ward is now different to then. Windsofchange – the Greens lost their deposit in Riverside at the General.

  4. I’m going to stick my neck out not very far and say that the Greens are NOT going to win Liverpool Riverside. Merseyside has a long history of disappointing non-Tory parties apart from Labour in general elections. Scousers’ hatred of the Tories is so virulent that they unite behind the party which can alone beat them nationally, i.e.Labour, hence the terrible LD result in Liverpool Wavertree (which has of course been followed by sweeping Labour gains municipally in the constituency, at long last). Not all Scousers love Labour, but they generally are hard to prevent from voting for that party in general elections and have been since the 80s, especially since 1997 when Mossley Hill constituency disappeared.

  5. The Liverpool seats appear to be too safe for Ed Miliband’s gaffe to have major costs. There is no unified party on the left to pick up the disaffected voters.

    MIliban’s support for the Sun is more likely to cost him votes in marginals across the country, over Page 3 as well as Hillsborough. I know that locially all the party leaders should be in the same boat, but it does not work that way.

    Unless they are intending to retire anyway, Councillors are daft to resign from their party except if they have somewhere else credible lined up to go to.

  6. Over Page 3?

  7. I don’t think a single marginal will be affected by this episode, probably not even Wirral W though it is possible it could have a very slight effect there.

  8. Current prediction for 2015-
    Twigg (Labour)- 69%
    UKIP- 12%
    Liberal- 8%
    Conservative- 6%
    Liberal Democrat- 5%

  9. I think the Liberal Party will finish second in this constituency as they did in 2001. I also think the LDs will beat the Tories for what it’s worth.

  10. I shouldn’t have predicted all these seats…

  11. Yeah second place for the Liberals in my view too.

  12. Stephen Twigg has just tweeted that Bob Wareing, former MP here, has passed away.

  13. Stephen Twigg MP has now tweeted an apology as Bob Wareing is alive and well.

  14. I wonder if the old liberals will one day make a comeback. They just need lots and lots of funding a manpower I think.

    But then again so does everyone.

  15. You know if the liberal democrats fall totally it could be a chance for the old liberals to pick up say, 1% of that vote nationwide. By that logic they could muster 0.3% of the national vote in 2015.

    That’s a solid 90,000 votes. Okay, they could only ever do this if they basically stood in every seat in the country, they might stand in 7 seats. That knocks them back down to like 7,000 votes but hey, they stand in areas where they have potential not just any old place right?

    meh I can’t work it out logically but 20,000 votes for the liberal party come 2015? That’s pretty much quadrupling.

    Just a pointless thought.

  16. I very much doubt whether support here for the Liberals will outlast Steve Radford. But he loves being a councillor and will be there for many years yet!

  17. nice, the liberal party actually has 16 councillors nationwide, compare this to the 2 the BNP have or the 3 of the TUSC. They’re actually kinda big.

  18. I wouldn’t go that far. They’re the biggest of the microparties.

  19. I mean the BNP got 1.9% of the vote in 2010 while the liberals barely got 0.1% . I mean the BNP gave a way bigger vote just with the liberals it’s concentrated much better.

  20. They have a very high ceiling in comparison with tusc and the bnp.

  21. Looking at THE RESULTS’s prediction as a base I would say the Lib Dems are virtually guaranteed to lose their deposit, the Tories are in severe danger of doing so, and seeing as UKIP matched their national average here I’d say they’re good for 12% at current polling. It’s just a matter of where those Lib Dems go. If it’s largely to the Liberals then obviously it damages UKIP’s chances of potentially establishing themselves as the main contender up here (though I use the word ‘contender’ very lightly given Labour’s overwhelming strength).

  22. Labour: 21100
    Liberal: 6400
    UKIP: 3100
    Conservative: 2800
    Green: 1300
    Lib Dem: 1000

  23. Any news on whether Steve Radford is going to stand again for the Liberals?

  24. I had a look at the Liberal Party web site last night, and there doesn’t seem to be any candidate activity there. They do have a page link to Election 2015, but it just tips you into their Manifesto. I was trying to get further info on the story of Cornwall Liberal Party ‘stepping aside’ to let UKIP take the strain. Didn’t sound quite kosher to me. But then it is Cornwall . . . (ducks ironware coming in my direction.)

    Perhaps the Lib Pty has no candidates, so are making a thing of being ‘magnanimous’. (can’t believe I spelled that correctly ?!)

    BR

  25. Thanks for having a look around.

  26. As you will no doubt have already seen Steve Radford is standing. There are a number of other liberal candidates around the country. And you are right, the Cornish decision is confined to that area.

  27. I’m expecting around..

    Labour: 70%
    UKIP: 9%
    Conservative: 7%
    Liberal Democrat: 5%
    Liberal: 4%
    Others: 5%

  28. Labour Hold. 24,000 majority.

  29. Prediction

    Labour – 69%
    UKIP – 9%
    Liberal – 8%
    Conservative – 6%
    Lib Dem – 5%
    Green – 3%

    Labour hold

  30. 4th (or maybe even 5th) place here for the Tories

    Lab – 71
    UKIP – 8
    Lib – 7
    Conservative – 6
    LD – 5
    Green – 3

  31. John – where are the other Liberal candidates?

  32. Chelmsford; Peterborough, and Ryedale.

  33. Thanks. I’ve just spotted the Daily Politics interview with Steve Radford from last week.

    Andrew Neil is interviewing the 22 minor Parties standing in the GE (all are on the BBC site).

    They include: Class War, Communist; Pirate; Animal Welfare, Christian, Socialist GB, Scottish Socialist, TUSC, Alliance for Green Socialism, Socialist Labour, National Front.

  34. 2,052 votes were required to save a deposit. Steve Radford polled 2,049.

  35. Yes, it’s a sad and rather bizarre story.

    Apparently Bob Wareing died and was cremated in London in May without anyone being informed!

    Usually the Speaker informs MPs of the passing of a former Member, but on this occasion not a single friend or distant relative was told.

    I believe a Will has now ben located and his wishes were for a funeral in Liverpool, so someone will be in trouble.

    [Added to the fact that his death WAS reported a year ago, when he was in fact alive]

    His estate will have to be dealt with otherwise it’ll go to the State.

    A further story in today’s Liverpool Echo states that a Memorial Service will be held in the constituency on November 5th.

  36. Not a great advert for going into a nursing home

  37. Yes, very true. There was also that case of the late MEP last year where the wrong body was cremated.

  38. My grandad was fit as a fiddle all his life until his bile duct failed aged 92. Within a matter of weeks he couldn’t walk or go to the toilet and despite a great deal of family support he was told he’d have to prepare to move into a home. He overdosed on his medication that night and was found dead the next morning…I have to say I hope I have the courage to do the same.

  39. “2,052 votes were required to save a deposit. Steve Radford polled 2,049.”

    The Liberals also lost Tuebrook & Stoneycroft in the 2015 local elections having successfully kept Labour out during the coalition years.

    It could be argued that the general election turnout was to their disadvantage, as Liberals may be more likely to vote than Labour voters but they did win in 2010.

    The swing from Liberal to Labour was almost 25% and the problem that the Liberals have is that many voters may have confused them with the Lib Dems while the Green Party has not had the same problem.

    I wonder if Steve Radford will be in trouble next May?

    You could say that his long term dedication and incumbency would help him but that did not help Simon Hughes.

  40. Interesting Hemmelig. The prospect of going to a Nh doesn’t scare me, but the prospect of having all my worldly possessions taken away to pay for it does.

  41. Dalek – the problem was that Radford Libs fielded an ex LibDem City Cllr and Cabinet Member. This was easy for Labour to attack. Labour wouldnt win T&S in a Local only turnout and certainly not against Radford. He has polled 60-85% of the vote when he has stood.

  42. please put my photo on why have you listed liberals as others when we have often beaten both tories and Lib dems?

    have youe mail to send photo to

  43. The North West is to lose 7 seats in the Boundary Review.

    The South East will not lose any (Isle of Wight gains 1).

  44. Wirral Deeside would probably have been Tory by 7000 or so in 2015.

  45. MP-R – Yes, well the proposed seat was cross county, so it’d give them half an MP (the bulk of the population would be in Merseyside though, even if they do all have CH post codes).

    From memory Merseyside deserves to lose 1.2 seats due to population decline/shift, so yes would lose a seat as it has done in the last 2 Reviews.

  46. MPR- there won’t be many retirements.

    Both 2010 and 2015 had record numbers going. From memory something like 200 and 100 respectively due to the expenses’ scandal fallout/deselectons in 2010 as well as age and lot of new MPs and LDs retiring last year.

  47. The late Bob Warning MP was featured on the BBC’s Heir Hunters on Monday.

    They couldn’t locate any Will or close family when he died; but, have now traced 53 distant relatives.

    Sadly, the c£200k from the sale of his Westminster flat 4 years ago seems to have disappeared. I assume the bulk went in nursing home fees for 2 years, but still strikes me as odd that someone who was an MP for 27 years had no assets upon death.

    But of course it’s also odd that his funeral took place without anyone being informed.

    I suspect it isn’t the last we’ll hear about this matter.

  48. Regarding seats being abolished Liverpool looks set to lose a seat and based off the last review it looks like Walton will get the chop. I find this most disappointing that Liverpool’s only truly local MP Steve Rotherham is set to lose out. I’ve heard rumour’s though that if Walton does get abolished Rotherham will be able to contest one of the other seats with West Derby looking the most likely given Twigg’s parachuted nature and backbench role. This seems very reasonable but undoubtedly Blairites will have a field day and the accusations of de-selections and purges will begin.

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