Liverpool, West Derby

2015 Result:
Conservative: 2710 (6.6%)
Labour: 30842 (75.2%)
Lib Dem: 959 (2.3%)
Green: 996 (2.4%)
UKIP: 3475 (8.5%)
Liberal: 2049 (5%)
MAJORITY: 27367 (66.7%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Merseyside. Part of the Liverpool council area.

Main population centres: Liverpool.

Profile: Liverpool is the once great port city of the north west, sunk deep in economic deprivation yet ever proud of its art, music and culture. This seat covers the west of Liverpool, consisting of the West Derby, Norris Green, Knotty Ash, Tuebrook and Croxteth areas. The outlying parts of the seat, the large housing estates of Norris Green and Croxteth both suffer from problems of gangs and violence and the constituency suffers from high levels of people on unemployment or sickness benefits.

Politics: Liverpool is dominated by the Labour party, they have easily won all the Parliamentary seats here since the abolition of the Liberal Democrat held Liverpool Mossley Hill in 1997. Liverpool West Derby is an unusual seat as one of the last holdouts of the old continuing Liberal party, those who rejected the merger with the SDP in 1989. The Liberal party strength in concentrated in the Tuebrook and Stoneycroft ward, represented by the paty`s president Steve Radford who has contested the last four elections for the party and managed to come second in 1997 and 2001. This is, however, as much a symptom of Liberal Democrat and Conservative weakness here than of a huge amount of Liberal support - the Labour party here are utterly, overwhelmingly dominant at a Parliamentary level..


Current MP
STEPHEN TWIGG (Labour) Born 1966, Enfield. Educated at Southgate School and Oxford University. Former general secretary of the Fabian Society. Islington councillor 1992-1997. MP for Enfield Southgate 1997-2005. First elected as MP for Liverpool West Derby in 2010. junior minister privy council office 2001-2002, education 2002-2004, Minister of State for Education 2004-2005. Shadow Education Secretary 2011-2013.
Past Results
2010
Con: 3311 (9%)
Lab: 22953 (64%)
LDem: 4486 (13%)
UKIP: 1093 (3%)
Oth: 3941 (11%)
MAJ: 18467 (52%)
2005*
Con: 2567 (8%)
Lab: 19140 (63%)
LDem: 3915 (13%)
UKIP: 538 (2%)
Oth: 4304 (14%)
MAJ: 14836 (49%)
2001
Con: 2486 (8%)
Lab: 20454 (66%)
LDem: 3366 (11%)
Oth: 4601 (15%)
MAJ: 15853 (51%)
1997
Con: 3656 (9%)
Lab: 30002 (71%)
LDem: 3805 (9%)
Oth: 4037 (10%)
MAJ: 25965 (62%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Liverpool, West Derby

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ED MCRANDAL (Conservative)
STEPHEN TWIGG (Labour) See above.
PAUL TWIGGER (Liberal Democrat) Former Liverpool councillor. Contested Liverpool West Derby 2010.
NEIL MINEY (UKIP)
REBECCA LAWSON (Green)
STEVE RADFORD (Liberal)
Links
Comments - 131 Responses on “Liverpool West Derby”
  1. @rivers10

    if the re-selection rules in case of boundary changes won’t be changed, sitting Labour MPs are entitled of a “substantial territorial claim” on new constituencies where at least 40% of their old electorate is moved. The substantial territorial claim basically means they are allowed to just undergo the yes/no re-selection trigger ballot. If more than 1 MP have a territorial claim on a proposed constituency, they will face off for selection.

    If the new proposals are similar to the 2013 ones, it would mean Rotherham challenging Louise Ellman. Given that Ellman will be 75 by the time of next GE, I suppose she could consider retirement.

  2. Rotherham definitely has a bigger claim on the Riverside and Walton seat but the rumour (so it goes since I’m new to the local Lab party) is that while a parachute also Ellman has served the seat well, her entire parliamentary career has been spent in the seat and she is at least a shadow minister and a northerner.

    Twigg on the other hand is of the more unacceptable “parachuted after losing their original seat” variety, has absolutely no links to the city or even the region and is clearly not going to get anywhere near a Labour shadow cabinet led by Corbyn (even Milliband thought he was too far to the right) thus the rumour goes he’s viewed as something of a waste of space locally (something I can attest to being one of his constituents and never seeing or hearing from him once) and thus the local party could feasibly vote to de-select him in favour of Rotherham.

  3. I doubt any current Liverpool seat will get the chop in that sense.

    It should just enable 4 Liverpool seats rather than the 4.5 at the moment (with the cross borough Garston & Halewood seat). I can’t see it falling to 3 or 3.5.

    Eagle could therefore go and given Corbyn v her on Defence wouldn’t surprise me.

    Incidentally, Rotherham will be 59 at the next General and I recall when he was a Cllr he said politicians should retire and give the jobs to younger people, so he may not be that bothered if early retirement is forced upon him. Rotherham has also had a run in with the Momentum people and lost his plea on the NEC from memory.

    Berger was the last minute parachute more so than Twigg – who at least ‘nursed’ the seat for 2 or 3 years after Wareing had neglected the seat and CLP. Age-wise you’re right to expect Ellman, Howarth to go before any of these though.

    The city centre population has doubled in a decade and Knowsley’s is still declining is the other reason for my thinking.

  4. “Rotherham has also had a run in with the Momentum people and lost his plea on the NEC from memory.”

    I don’t know the Momentum thing but his NEC problem was that he became PPS to Corbyn and he didn’t resign as PLP rep on the NEC. The PLP basically ousted him from that position even if the Corbynistas wanted him to carry on. The motion (which was basically around that being PPS is a front bench role) to remove him was passed 158 to 5 votes.
    Howarth stood for the PLP rep by-election but he was beaten by Shabana Mahmood from Birmingham Ladywood.

  5. The Heir Hunters programme on Bob Wareing was very sad and highlighted the modern disease of childless OAPs dying alone. It also showed Jeremy Corbyn being a really nice bloke at the memorial service.

  6. Thanks Andrea – a mine of information on the inside as usual. Oh he basically said Momentum seem to want to be the next Militant and of course this seat was the scene of Heffer & Mahmood v Kilfoyle & Kinnock. A few of those Militant Cllrs were at the huge Corbyn rally at The Adelphi hotel, last year. I assume their online memberships will be revoked, as Derek Hatton’s was after the NEC took action a few months ago.

    HH – yes. I’m still amazed that the nursing home didn’t inform anyone about his death or funeral. ie ex MPs’ deaths are usually announced by the Speaker to the House and placed in the Times/Telegraph. Apparently his Will stated a funeral in Liverpool, but that has yet to be found either.

  7. For the record I would like to retract my earlier “observations” about the Twigg deselction rumour. Having further time to investigate the matter amongst the local party I have it on good authority that while the desire to deselect Twigg in favour of Rotherham does exist (should it come to that) it is in no way a prevalent view. Rather certain pro Corbyn and pro Rotherham Walton CLP members are floating the idea and while it definitely has traction amongst some (from what I can tell) this is less the case in the West Derby CLP itself where it obviously matters the most since they’ll be the folks that actually get to vote in a nomination battle.

    Thus unless Twigg does something really stupid (which I doubt he will, he seems to be keeping a fairly low profile) he’ll probably remain here as long a he wants to.

  8. How is Liverpool likely to vote in the EU referendum?

  9. The perception is Remain by 65% (due to city centre-based media often only asking themselves in essence ie the 2 largest employers in the city are the Universities and City Council and 20% students will not have a vote as they are EU) but polls, comments and voxpops have shown a majority support Leave across Merseyside, especially in council estates.

    So it will be down to turnout as with many other areas.

    Frank Field and some of the far Left are supporting Leave, as are UKIP, Liberals and some Tories.

    The Remain camp seems to be made up solely of the LibDem Group leader Cllr Kemp and the Labour MEPs, but I assume Greens and the New Labour MPs are pro-EU.

  10. Lanc Observer
    There have been EU polls done on Merseyside?

  11. Oh come on Lancs Observer, you know very well that “comments and voxpops” from council estates are no more likely to be representative of the whole than polling the city council and university. And turnout from the university and council employees will certainly be far higher. Your reluctance to give Andy a prediction leads me to suspect you secretly expect Remain to win in Liverpool, which is certainly my expectation though based on little local knowledge, note Andy asked about Liverpool NOT Merseyside as a whole, which is a different kettle of fish entirely.

  12. Didn’t YouGov do that analysis of all local authorities in the country and it had Liverpool as on of the most Pro EU in the Northwest.

    Despite being a local I don’t claim to be an expert but from what I can tell Remain will win very comfortably in Liverpool. Liverpool’s students and middle classes seem to be breaking almost entirely for remain and with lower turnout in the estates I’d put remain on 60% plus on an EVEN day. But that’s just my totally random guess.

  13. HH – it wasn’t just the fact that only asking public sector employees would skew any survey, it’s that the city centre is frequented by commuters and students who don’t live here.

    So even though Radio Merseyside and the Liverpool Echo referred to them as surveys in Liverpool, they all polled people from across Merseyside.

    What was startling was the comparison with comments from the outer areas of Liverpool, as they were polar opposites of the city centre responses. Age was also a factor in this.

    Rivers10 – yes 8 at the last count. I think the BID and Lpool Hope did too, although the former was more to see whether the public knew where Objective 1 and ERDF was spent.

  14. Incidentally, re turnout, I have no idea why you both believe students turn out in higher numbers than council estates.

    They certainly do not in Liverpool.

    In fact, famously the lowest turnout in a ward in the EU was recorded in the Central Ward in Liverpool, which comprises 40% students (as a lot of the Halls are located there).

    That 9% was in a May election when some were in the city for exams.

    Hardly any will be on Referendum Day (although of course many will vote at their home addresses).

    Rivers10 – yes, that’s the perception. Indeed I quoted the 65% Remain assertion. I was explaining why I feel it to be false. I agree, however, that 65% of those from the above groups would vote Remain.

  15. “Incidentally, re turnout, I have no idea why you both believe students turn out in higher numbers than council estates.”

    Yes but universities don’t just contain students do they…they also contain thousands of employees who will be among the most likely to vote and will skew heavily to Remain.

  16. Which was precisely my point.

    Lecturers are pro-Remain but are unrepresentative of Liverpool voters, so city centre polls aren’t helpful (other than telling us what we’d expect to find).

    Incidentally, half of them don’t live in Liverpool either, so their Remain votes won’t add to the tally here.

    But I agree: middle class LibDem voters in Merseyside will almost all vote Remain.

    Turnout will determine the rest.

  17. The Liberal Party NEC has announced it is supporting a vote to Leave the EU through Grassroots Out!

    This will not come as a surprise to those who know the Party and Cllr Steve Radford.

    I actually thought Liberal Leave was this Party’s group as they use the Diamond emblem, but I now see Liberal Leave is the Lib Dem Group supporting Leave.

    I see the Liberal Party uses the orange starburst emblem on their leaflet and ballot papers. I think Liberal Leave’s Yellow Diamond must be from the ’80s.

  18. The Liberal Party appear to be delivering their own Leave literature here.

    I don’t know if it’s constituency-wide, or just in heir fiefdom of Tuebrook & Stoneycroft Ward.

    There’s more info on their decision at http://www.liberals2leave.eu and the Party’s Facebook page.

  19. Central Liverpool should vote Remain but the working-class estates will probably be a lot better for Leave. Overall I’d expect Remain to win but not by a huge margin.

  20. I agree, Andy JS (although by Central Liverpool I take it you meant the city centre, rather than the centre).

  21. Yes, I was using that shorthand.

  22. Obviously in most cities, they would be one and the same, but in Liverpool the city centre is the north west of the city. Often journalists and students from further afield don’t realise this and they ring up confused, lost in the centre of the city where the motorway ends.

  23. Sensible proposals for Liverpool at least.

    Although it’s a shame to see the historic Liverpool, Walton go, the population has been declining in N Lpool for each and every of the last 35 years.

  24. I though the Liverpool boundaries were decent too.

  25. Steve Radford is standing (again) of course.

    UKIP have stood down for him as he was part of ‘Grassroots Out!’

    The LibDem who came last in 2015 – ex-Cllr Twigger – is standing again although he appears to have taken his wife’s surname, as he is now standing as Paul Parr.

  26. Cllr Steve Radford was on the BBC Daily Politics today saying that Real Liberals voted Leave.

    Amusingly the guest of the day happened to be Nick Clegg (who said he should join the Conservatives).

  27. “Cllr Steve Radford was on the BBC Daily Politics today saying that Real Liberals voted Leave.”

    The continuity Liberals have been anti-EU for decades, and are generally friendlier with eccentric Bill Cash-esque Eurosceptic conservatives than with any other political opponents.

    They have often put up candidates in local elections with the unspoken intention of frustrating Lib Dem chances of winning the seat, as indeed occurred when I stood in a council ward 15 years ago. In Merseyside do the Liberals prefer Labour to the Lib Dems?

  28. To be fair that’s not true.

    Under Steve Radford it is true though (ie they’ve been anti-EU whilst he has been President), indeed it’s why he stood with the far Left on the No2EU ticket in the 2009 Euros in the NW, because at that time the Libs weren’t anti-EU.

    The Liberals hate both will equal measure here 😉

  29. Rivers10’s effort as Labour Agent for Tuebrook & Stoneycroft resulted in the following result:

    Liberal 2,524
    Labour 1,283
    LD 50
    Green 47
    Con 37

    Liberal Hold.

    39% Turnout.

    Some unfortunate unforced errors by the Labour team (their candidate was a N Wales Cllr ’til 3 years ago) included labelling their man, “Don’s the One” – which resulted in “Don’t be Conned by Don” after Labour put Steve Radford’s face and name in red on their leaflet next to Don and Twigg MP – presumably in an attempt to con voters into thinking Don was allied to Radford!

  30. Liverpool City Council have finally got around to publishing the EU Referendum ward breakdowns.

    As I said – both in predictions before and in analysis afterwards (although Rivers disagreed) – Norris Green voted Leave.

    Norris Green ward 56% Leave.
    Clubmoor ward 50% Leave.

    A ward that did surprise some was that Tuebrook & Stoneycroft’s Leave vote was as high as 43%, as it’s more in the centre of the city and is 18% ethnic, rather than the above which are inter war outer council estates which are 95% White British – but I imagine the fact that Cllr Steve Radford has leafleted the ward with anti-EC/EU flyers for over 30 years may have contributed.

  31. Where is this data Lancs? The constituency estimates on Wikipedia seem pretty accurate overall but it’s interesting to know the data.

    Sefton would be really interesting to have as well for Southport etc (but probably not available)

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