Liverpool, Wavertree

2015 Result:
Conservative: 4098 (10%)
Labour: 28401 (69.3%)
Lib Dem: 2454 (6%)
Green: 2140 (5.2%)
UKIP: 3375 (8.2%)
TUSC: 362 (0.9%)
Independent: 144 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 24303 (59.3%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Merseyside. Part of the Liverpool council area.

Main population centres: Liverpool.

Profile: Liverpool is the once great port city of the north west, sunk deep in economic deprivation yet ever proud of its art, music and culture. The Wavertree seat covers the south-western part of the city, stretching from run down, inner-city terraces towards the city centre out towards some of the more middle-class areas of the city.

Politics: Liverpool is dominated by the Labour party, they have easily won all the Parliamentary seats here since the abolition of the Liberal Democrat held Liverpool Mossley Hill in 1997. Wavertree was the last seat held by the Conservatives, lost in 1983. More recently Wavertree become one of the better targets for the Liberal Democrats, who Liverpool`s middle class voters have increasingly turned to rather than the Conservatives, but their support collapsed following the creation of the coalition.

Current MP
LUCIANA BERGER (Labour) Born 1981, London. Educated at Birmingham University. First elected as MP for Liverpool Wavertree in 2010. Shadow Minister for Mental Health since 2015.
Past Results
Con: 2830 (7%)
Lab: 20132 (53%)
LDem: 12965 (34%)
UKIP: 890 (2%)
Oth: 1097 (3%)
MAJ: 7167 (19%)
Con: 2331 (7%)
Lab: 18441 (52%)
LDem: 13268 (38%)
UKIP: 660 (2%)
Oth: 471 (1%)
MAJ: 5173 (15%)
Con: 3091 (10%)
Lab: 20155 (63%)
LDem: 7836 (24%)
UKIP: 348 (1%)
Oth: 708 (2%)
MAJ: 12319 (38%)
Con: 4944 (11%)
Lab: 29592 (64%)
LDem: 9891 (22%)
Oth: 915 (2%)
MAJ: 19701 (43%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Liverpool, Wavertree

2015 Candidates
JAMES PEARSON (Conservative)
LUCIANA BERGER (Labour) See above.
LEO EVANS (Liberal Democrat) Educated at University of Liverpool. Student.
PETER CRANIE (Green) Born Scotland. Educated at Keele University. Lecturer. Contested Liverpool Riverside 2005, West Lancashire 2010, North West region 2009, 2014 European elections.
NIAMH MCCARTHY (Independent)
Comments - 230 Responses on “Liverpool Wavertree”
  1. There seems to me to be a tactical Conservative-leaning vote for the Lib Dems of at the very least 5% (conceivably up to double that if you include those who are right-leaning but would not vote for the party itself), which will probably go to other parties on the basis that no-one is challenging Labour and so you may as well vote for your first preference.

    There also seems to be a substantial element who voted Lib Dem in preference to Blair and Brown’s Labour, and are likely to return to Labour this time.

    Finally, while I can’t see a significant proportion of protest voters switching from Lib Dem to UKIP here (although as with everywhere some will), I predict a sharp reverse in the recent turnout trend of this seat hitting the Lib Dems particularly hard here relative to any other seat in the country in which the Lib Dems are second in a two horse race.

    Recent turnout figures:

    2001 44.3%
    2005 50.8%
    2010 60.6%

  2. You’d be amazed how much this kind of stuff happens. Admittedly, this is quite extreme, but you always get a few people pretending to be a local MP or something, and making some incendiary comments on the Internet in their name.

  3. Van Fleet – that’s true, although in this case, the Cllr admits to having a grindr account.

  4. Out of interest, how did Luciana Berger manage to take this seat with an increased and comfortable majority? The Lib Dems were surely gunning for this at the time. I recall there being understandable local anger surrounding her selection. Was it a favourable boundary change or did she miraculously win support campaigning?

  5. Lib Dem support in Liverpool went backwards rapidly throughout the second half of the last decade. Boundary changes actually aided them here in 2010.

  6. Neil – this was all discussed on the old site. But, essentially the LibDem attacks on Luciana backfired, as LD Colin Eldridge was not local either. He stated he’d been a City Cllr for a decade, but he was a Bristol City Cllr for 5 years.

    The then LibDem City Council had also been in retreat as ECB mentions and suffered leadership woes, losses and defections from 2006 onwards.

    Plus, across Merseyside there was an increase in the Labour vote in 2010, that had either stayed at home or gone LD in 2005.

    Luciana also quietly telephone canvassed along with the CLP for many months and she gained Jewish support that had been LD in Childwall ward.

  7. My Prediction

    LAB – 57%
    UKIP – 17%
    LIB D – 15%
    CON – 5%
    GRE – 3%
    Jake Y – 1%
    OTH – 1%

  8. Wonder how well Jake Morrison will do in this election. He quit The Labour Party after they suspended him for not bowing down to Lucianna’s orders or something like that.

  9. Connor – Jake announced recently that he won’t be standing in 2015 here or in his ward of the same name. He’ll just campaign against Luciana.

  10. The Liberal Democrat candidate for this seat is only 19 I believe. (Younger than me). On paper actually this isn’t a bad first seat to stand in at a young age, although granted given what’s happened to the party locally and nationally the result here probably won’t be a great one for the local Lib Dems.

  11. Actually he’s now 20 so round about the same age as me but considering a lot of very young first-time candidates often get put in no-hope seats, (where the party only has about 5-10% of the vote say) here it’s not quite the case. Even here they might manage to cling on to about 15% because of how well they’ve done here locally in the past.

  12. This is surely a seat where they’d be looking to retain second place. Not sure why they’ve picked such a young candidate, as a stronger, more experienced one could have had a better chance of doing that.

  13. Well TBH when I found out who the candidate was here (selected along with all other four Liverpool Lib Dems back in November) I was a bit surprised to find he was only 19 at the time. Perhaps the party aren’t targeting this any more, given the increasingly dreadful results they’ve had in this part of the world for the last four years and more. I’ll reiterate though- They start from a decent enough base here, in fact the best out of all the Liverpool seats, and though I’m not supremely local (I’m in Sefton as you may know), my only guess would be given their now tiny number of councillors they’ve struggled to find candidates this time around so have gone for someone who wants to get a bit of experience of campaigning.

  14. The Tory candidate looks pretty young as well.

  15. Is that James Pearson I take it Andy?

  16. Sorry, I got mixed up. I was thinking of the newly selected candidate for Liverpool West Derby, Ed McRandal.

  17. Cllr Jake Morrison has said he’s supporting the Green PPC against Luciana Berger.

  18. Well then it’s a good thing he’s an independent now – jumped before he would have been very justifiably pushed.

  19. Pity Jake does not intend to join the Greens (and be part of the ‘Green surge’) even when he is supporting Peter in this contest…

  20. Is the Toxteth area in this seat?

  21. No, it’s almost all, if not absolutely all, in Riverside.

  22. The Results, do you still think the Lib Dems will manage 15% here? I only ask because through a series of weird coincidences I’ve become distantly connected to the Lib Dem PPC here and I’m curious how he’ll do.

  23. Seems a renaissance, of sorts, is being called in Liverpool in LibDem circles…

  24. ”The Results, do you still think the Lib Dems will manage 15% here? I only ask because through a series of weird coincidences I’ve become distantly connected to the Lib Dem PPC here and I’m curious how he’ll do.”

    That’s very interesting Mr Nameless. I would say they might do even worse now, maybe they might get 12-13% here? It’s not my seat and I don’t technically live in Liverpool myself, so I can’t say for certain, but that would be my best guess based on the local election results.

  25. Labour Hold. 15,000 majority.

  26. Prediction

    Labour – 60%
    Lib Dem – 15%
    UKIP – 10%
    Conservative – 7%
    Green – 6%
    Others – 2%

    Labour hold

  27. The Tories actually increased their vote share by 2.5% here to take an extremely distant second place, and Luciana Berger recorded the best ever result for Labour in this seat, holding with a massively increased majority of 24, 303.

  28. I’m amused but not surprised that in all of these supposed bohemian areas, UKIP beat the Greens easily, even with their almost MEP/Leader standing here. Stroud too. Greens do well in affluent alternative seats such as Brighton, Bristol, Islington.

  29. I see that Jake Morrison who stood down as a Cllr for Wavertree ward in May is now living and working in St Neots and hopes to be active in politics there.

    I’m not sure his left of Labour/Indy politics will get him many votes there!

  30. Lancs Observer
    I feel obligated to point out (as a Liverpool resident) this seat is in no way “bohemian” Liverpool’s bohemian seat is undoubtedly Liverpool Riverside what with containing the city centre, two universities, the trendy areas of Mossley Hill and the more affluent parts of Dingle and despite the name of this constituency the more “studenty” bits of Wavertree.

    This seat is essentially split into two parts, one part inner city deprivation the other part middle class suburbia and neither are particularly bohemian. The Green vote here will have come almost exclusively from the reasonable student vote but that’s about it.

    Also I can say categorically (having been a member of the Greens at the time) that this seat received only token attention because it was felt a deposit could be saved here and it might have knock on effects to the campaign in Riverside. The Liverpool Greens attention was focused almost exclusively on the Riverside seat.

  31. I agree – I said supposedly bohemian.

    Actually UKIP beat the Greens in almost every ward in the city – that was more my point. UKIP attract the WWC and fail in student areas; the Greens absolutely ‘bomb’ in WWC wards with 1-2%, even with a leaflet.

    My point was more that in most constituencies UKIP beat the Greens even after their ‘surge’ at the General. [In reality, they probably peaked before the Debates and their Leader’s performances on TV and radio, as with Plaid]

  32. Fair enough. As for UKIP beating the Greens in most places that is naturally to be expected given that UKIP was polling more than the Greens, had more resources, media coverage etc.

    It was said that the Greens and UKIP were essentially diametrically opposed thus it makes perfect sense that were one is at their best the other is at their worst. Greens bombed in WWC areas while UKIP bombed in trendy, student or alternative areas.

  33. True.

    Although the point I was making was that even in their poor areas, UKIP manged deposit-saving 5%+, whereas the Greens only polled very costly 2% in theirs.

    Plus on our agreed definition, there are far more WWC wards and seats in the UK than there are alternative ones.

  34. Luciana Berger and Steve Rotheram are both reportedly interested in running for Mayor of Liverpool next year. Joe Anderson has just been re-elected but there will be another election next year as it is taking on more powers. WIth Andy Burnham also hinting at running for Manchester mayor this may become a bit of a trend – Labour MPs perhaps becoming a bit tired of opposition and looking for a way to power.

  35. I’m surprised Luciana Berger even agreed to serve in Corbyn’s shadow cabinet in the first place. She seems so ideologically different to him.

  36. I suppose that she was a/ a key Burnham supporter and followed his decision to serve under Corbyn and b/ thought that she could still do something useful in an area she cares about despite disapproving of the leadership. However, over time if Corbyn’s leadership endures I expect the remaining Miliband-era figures in the shadow cabinet will move aside and be replaced by some of the younger Corbynistas and others who, even if not fully signed up Corbyn supporters, are more prepared to support the leadership in public.

  37. Whilst Joe will be too old, Luciana will be both too young and a non-local.

    I’d say an Ind might be favourite to win.

    If not, Rotherham may stand a good chance. It seems odd he wants to give up being an MP after having only been one for a few years.

  38. From personal experience, the percentage of students who support UKIP is higher than the WWC who support the Greens.

  39. 2020

    Derek Hatton (Lab) 14,444
    *Lucana Berger (New Lab) 9,876
    Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 4,687
    Leo Evans (Lib Dem) 4,655
    Toby Smith (Con) 2,987
    Peter Cranie (Green) 1,778

    Lab Maj 4,568

    Lab Gain from New Lab
    (based on the scenario that the Labour Party split as they did in 1981 with most of the parliamentary party becoming the New Labour Party).

  40. With all due respect Dalek this scenario is not at all likely, not saying Lab wont split but that still doesn’t add credence to your scenario. Three main reasons

    There is no way Hatton would be the selection for a left wing Lab party here, I live in neighbouring West Derby and the local CLP in Wavertree is not short of credible candidates on the soft and far left who are vastly more likely to be selected than Hatton.

    Also There s no way Nuttall would stand here for UKIP, I don’t even think he’s majorly interested in becoming an MP but if he were he would be prime “parachute” material into a more promising seat, even if he wanted to stay on Merseyside second only to Riverside or Wirral West this is probably UKIP’s worst seat on Merseyside.

    Finally Leo Evans will not stand for the Lib Dems again, I actually know him, he was on my course at uni and he wasn’t a Liverpool local (though he obviously studied at Liverpool uni) can’t remember were he said he was from but given that we are in our final year he will likely take his political ambitions back to his home turf (re his ambitions might I add they weren’t major to begin with, he knew he was going to lose badly in 2015, given we did a politics course it actually became something of a running joke in classes but I digress)

  41. I’ve got a few questions for someone who knows Liverpool/Merseyside as there a few things I don’t really understand:

    What actually caused the Tories to become so poisonous in this part of the country? I don’t mean simply generic reasons why they declined as that decline has happened in all major UK cities but what makes them so uniquely poisonous here in comparison to cities like Birmingham. Obviously the Tories do very badly in the deprived parts of Liverpool but their vote is just so bad in comparison to deprived parts of other cities where they are usually capable of getting at least 10% even when the area is much more multicultural than Liverpool like a lot of Birmingham or East London. Why also did the collapse come in even Liverpool’s most affluent wards like Woolton which if it was any other city it would probably be safely Tory?

    The most common explanation was it was all ‘Fatcher’s’ fault but while I accept that she was part of the reason I can’t really believe it is the entire picture either. Her government did have notorious run ins with the militant city council (whom I doubt were popular either in large chunks of the city) but she also had even worse run ins with the miners, who probably had reasons to dislike her more than Liverpudlians, but the Tory vote never collapsed anywhere near as badly even in the most pro-strike mining constituencies.

    Other reasons I have heard include Hillsborough and the ‘managed decline plan’ but I find it hard to believe these were causes of anti-Tory sentiment. Firstly anti-Tory sentiment appeared to have taken root long before the late ’80s and the things primarily blamed for Hillsborough appear to be the Sun and the police with the Tories more of an afterthought if at all. Secondly the managed decline plan was never implimented and its existence was not known about until years later,

    Also if the Tories hadn’t become so toxic in Liverpool and Merseyside more generally what parts of the county would actually vote Tory assuming the demographics would vote roughly in line with how they do in other parts of the country? I presume the Tories would do markedly better on the Wirral and in parts of Sefton as well as the posher parts of Liverpool, but I’m just guessing.

    Also is there any hope of any kind of recovery for the Tories in Merseyside perhaps similar to have they seem to have started to begin the long road back from oblivion in parts of Scotland. I don’t mean will Merseyside as a whole ever vote Tory but can they ever stop the rot and carve out enclaves of support ever again?

    Thanks a lot if you take the time to reply :-).

  42. There is an interesting piece on this here from somebody who is doing a PhD on the Tory decline in Liverpool –

  43. Pepps
    I believe I may be able to help and offer something of an insight.

    “What actually caused the Tories to become so poisonous in this part of the country?”

    Truthfully I don’t know, yes there are the factors that caused the Tories to decline I most major cities and there was also the element that the Tories decline in Liverpool mirrors that in Glasgow in that it seems particularly stark since a lot of the Tory vote came from the Protestant working classes and come the 60’s when people seemed to stop voting along sectarian lines it really accelerate their decline.

    There is probably some effect from Hillsborough not primarily from the event itself and the Tories response more that the Sun (traditionally the Tories best tool for targeting the WWC) is literally treated as less than toilet paper here for obvious reasons, this almost certainly had something of an impact especially in the 90’s.

    Then there’s as you say “managed decline” and other general economic malaise, a lot of this is probably more perception based than reality, a belief that Liverpool is always being ignored by “Westminster” which is “down South” which is “full of Tories” and before you know it the Tories are responsible.

    None of these things though are uniquely responsible, I honestly just think its a combination of all of them. These days I think its just a self fulfilling prophecy, the Tories do so badly in Liverpool cos that’s what everyone anticipates, I honestly think Liverpool is even worse than Scotland in this sense in that when politics comes up in conversation the default response is to either ignore the Tories “cos who in their right mind would vote for them” or just slag them off and consequently they never get anything in the way of a fair hearing.

    Will respond to the rest of the post in a min.

  44. Pepps
    “Also if the Tories hadn’t become so toxic in Liverpool and Merseyside more generally what parts of the county would actually vote Tory assuming the demographics would vote roughly in line with how they do in other parts of the country?”

    Less so in Wirral than you might expect. Some wards like Pensby and Thingwall should clearly be much better for the Tories, the area isn’t dripping with affluence but Thingwall especially is the type of respectable MOTR semi rural area that should vote Tory in all but their worst years. Bebington falls under pretty much the same category yet the Tories seem to have slipped out of contention there in recent years.

    However in parts of the Wirral within the Wallasey constituency the Tories are definitely holding their own if not punching above their weight. Given their malaise on the rest of Merseyside I would have expected the Moreton West and Wallasey wards to have fell to Lab by now but the Tories are holding on and the fact that they ever managed to win a ward like Liscard which consists almost entirely of grim inner city terraces is a big accomplishment.

    Tory woes are mainly felt on the other side of the Mersey. In Liverpool proper, as you point out the Tories should at the very least be competitive in Woolton, they certainly should have been capable of winning in 2008. It is after all made of almost entirely of smart suburbia.

    I think the real disappointment for Liverpool Tories though is neighbouring Church. Calderstones is basically Woolton’s more affluent cousin with your typical house here being a four of five bedroom detached you’d think the Tories would be doing better. Even the more downtrodden parts of the ward around the high school are the types of neighbourhoods you’d expect the Tories to get some support. As is though the Lib Dems have turned it into a bastion.

    Outside there though the Tories haven’t really got much hope in Liverpool proper. Allerton and Hunts Cross would be a maybe in a landslide but the Hunts Cross part of the ward is never going to go for the Tories so they’d have to be utterly dominant in Allerton to be in with a shout, honestly this was a semi surprising Lib Dem gain in 2016. Childwall too is starting to show the signs of decline so much so I think the ward is pretty much safe for Lab these days. Then there are the odd pockets in parts of Wavertree, the plush Croxteth Park estate in the Croxteth ward or some of the nicer riverside developments in the St Michael’s ward where the Tories “should” be doing well, but it would probably never be enough to win them the wards even in the hypothetical world were the Tories were doing better on Merseyside.

    The real issue though lies in Sefton, its here where the Tories are really underperforming. The two Formby wards (Harrington and Ravenmeols) should be rock solidly Tory, Ravenmeols has the odd grittier area but this shouldn’t make an impact in the ward as a whole. But the fact that Lab ever won Harrington should frankly be something of an embarrassment for local Tories. The absolute worst this ward has to offer are some streets that are decidedly MOTR and maybe could do with tidying up a bit. For the most part though its grand old houses (more often than not three or four stories) the quant suburbs of Freshfields or millionaires row along the border with Formby woods and golf club where average house prices are seven figures. The Tories are still holding on here but they shouldn’t be just holding on they should be walking home with 60% of the vote on an even day.

    The other two wards where the Tories should really be doing better are Blundellsands and Manor. In Blundellsands there are still some very chic seafront properties and Blundellsands itself is as quaint as it ever was, they should make up for the relative decline in parts of Crosby and at worst make the ward marginal, these days though its safe for Lab. As for Manor the village of Hightown really is a world unto itself, pretty sure the average age there most be about 70, any other part of the country it would vote Tory by a colossal margin, not due to affluence but rather its character, its the most “oldy worldy”, rural and conservative with a small C of all the areas on Merseyside. Now obviously the bulk of the ward is located around Thornton and I have noticed this area decline a bit over the years (I actually went to secondary school here) but there are still some very grand very desirable houses and by and large the area does still have a “villagey” feel, (that is until a double decker bus trawls past but alas) Any other part of the country I imagine both of these wards would be pretty safely Tory.

  45. Finally “is there any hope of any kind of recovery for the Tories in Merseyside”

    I never say never but if it is going to happen we’re only beginning to see the “blue shoots” if you will. I actually had a very illuminating conversation with a friend of mine about a year back when he asked me “why do we (we being scousers) all hate the Tories? What have they actually done?”

    I obviously went on a massive tangent and hopefully nipped that blue shoot in the bud but its undoubtedly a common sentiment. Practically all younger peeps here are raised on the horror stories of the Tories but undoubtedly my generation and the next who didn’t live under Thatcher will forget and maybe be more forgiving? Its a possibility but until the Tories start taking Liverpool seriously I doubt it will happen.

    I think the main issue for the Tories future here is Merseyside’s dependence on public sector employment. The Tories have obviously not made any friends with this group and unless Liverpool’s economy massively diverges and is more private sector oriented Liverpool’s Tory sympathetic middle class will remain at best wary.

  46. @rivers10. Thanks for that detailed insight.

    So everyone hates the Tories even people who ‘should’ agree with them but nobody is quite sure exactly why except for vague statements about events over a quarter of a century ago? Do you think this attitude will persist indefinitely?

    The comparison with Scotland is an interesting one. In Scotland the Tories are actually required to make an effort as being almost wiped out in a constituent UK country is pretty embarrassing and damages their electoral calculus if the have to write off nearly 60 seats some theoretically Tory friendly) before they even start. The Tories also have their own independent, well funded party in Scotland with fairly talented individuals thus there at least the potential to be somewhat competitive and someone their to shore up their core vote even at their darkest hour. Contrast this to Liverpool where they have zero organisation, probably badly funded, no core vote even amongst supposedly friendly demographics and is consequently written off by the national party who deem it a waste of time and money to even try.

    As for ‘blue shoots’ I wouldn’t worry there aren’t any, I was just wondering if there was a possibility for any to emerge in the future.

    In Liverpool and Knowsley they have probably hit rock bottom as last time I checked negative vote shares is not a thing haha. If Church is the wealthiest Liverpool ward then their results are absolutely catastrophic they lost their deposit both in 2015 and 2016 though they probably would do a bit better nationally when the Lib Dems wouldn’t be squeezing their vote.

    In Sefton the rot continues with no signs of stopping at the rate things are going I would not be surprised if they are wiped of the council in a few years. Why is it that their vote has collapsed so badly even in the moneyed ‘old world’ parts of the borough?

    In Wirral though there is some signs that their local base is stabilising though not improving. The local results from the Wallasey constituency (never losing the Wallasey and Moreton West wards) are indeed rather impressive all things considered as well as being consistently over 30% in New Brighton. However their national results on the Wirral are much worse. Is there any way they could translate their local votes into national votes? Clearly a large chunk of people for whatever reason would vote for a Tory council but not a Tory government in Westminster but is this because of a Scouser animosity to ‘Southern out touch Tory Governments’ or simply just the ‘Edgbaston effect’ of the wealthy public sector middle class split ticket voting?

    I guess that’s what Osborne’s Northern Powerhouse was about, bring the private sector to the north and replace middle class public sector jobs with middle class private sector ones and hopefully create more Tory voters in the process. The Tories are obviously not going to try to make friends with the public sector as they are ideologically opposed to a large public sector, unions/organised labour are more influential in the public sector making it hard for the Tories to get a foothold and it’s shrinking as a proportion of the electorate so they don’t have to ‘play nice’ with them in order to win as its easier for them to try to appeal to skilled private sector working class voters which has worked and caused Labour numerous problems in many constituencies.

    @Jack thanks for the link I will read it in a bit.

  47. Pepps
    “So everyone hates the Tories even people who ‘should’ agree with them but nobody is quite sure exactly why except for vague statements about events over a quarter of a century ago?”

    As bizarre as it sounds yes, you never hear one uniform reason why people hate the Tories here its just common sentiment that they do. If I had to say which reason was most influential I would honestly say its the Sun being boycotted here, many of the issues that the Tories are able to gain traction over Lab amongst the WWC (immigration, welfare etc) just aren’t pushed as forcibly by any other paper with as large a readership as the Sun, so when that paper has basically no readers in an area its inevitably going to have something of an effect on local politics.

    “Do you think this attitude will persist indefinitely?”
    Who can say, I can’t see things changing for the next decade or so but nothing lasts forever. One has to just remember that Liverpool was once deemed a Tory city and was the last major urban area to fall under Labour local control. Things are ever changing.

    “probably badly funded”
    This is another bizarre thing, I read somewhere that the Liverpool Tories are actually one of the wealthiest local Tory associations in the UK. They apparently have a big property portfolio from back when they were major local players and obviously these days don’t bother spending a penny on campaigns or utilising their ample facilities, so they just rent them out and earn interest on their funds and consequently have amassed quite the little fortune for themselves. Central Tory HQ has apparently been in near perpetual war with them for decades trying to seize their assets and spend their money but local Tories have been successful so far in holding them off. If local Tories were willing to spend some money they’d have quite the war chest at their disposal.

    “If Church is the wealthiest Liverpool ward then their results are absolutely catastrophic they lost their deposit both in 2015 and 2016”
    Yes Church has the highest household income of all the Liverpool wards. I have absolutely no doubt the Tory vote there is being squeezed by the Lib Dems. This is based on very little but I’d hazard a guess that if people voted for their first preference I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the Tories came close to winning Church.

    “In Sefton the rot continues with no signs of stopping at the rate things are going I would not be surprised if they are wiped of the council in a few years”
    I do believe they’ll hold out in the odd Southport ward for quite a few years yet but agree that in a decade or less they’ll probably lose their last councillors in the Sefton Central seat, they’ve obviously long been wiped out in Bootle.

    “Why is it that their vote has collapsed so badly even in the moneyed ‘old world’ parts of the borough?”

    I think its primarily two factors. First there is the typical edge of conurbation drift that has plagued the Tories in most Northern suburbs, as the old Tory vote dies off and is replaced by affluent public sector workers. On Merseyside though I thinks its accelerated cos the Tories are equally struggling to a large extent with private sector workers. My sister and her fiancée are perfect examples of this. They are both managerial types in well paid private sector positions, decidedly middle class, living in a 5 bedroom house in Formby which they own outright, they should be prime Tory voters or at the very least sympathetic but they’re not, they both voted Lab in 2015 and wouldn’t consider voting for anybody else. The issue at play here is both were raised to hate the Tories as most people in Liverpool seem to be. So when they moved out of Liverpool proper into Formby they took their “scouse Tory hatred” with them. This is the infamous “Merseyside effect” in action.

    “Is there any way they could translate their local votes into national votes?”
    Truthfully I don’t know, the divergence in Wallasey is truly staggering (it must surely be the most prominent example anywhere in the country?) By all accounts the situation in the Wirral is unusual since apparently the Wallasey CCP is one of the most effective if not THE most effective local party in the country, as I said it punches well above its weight and manages to secure solid wins locally in a very challenging area. However next door Wirral West is by all accounts one of the more inept local parties and consistently botch everything they touch. As much as people like to blame McVey the local party undoubtedly had a big part to play in losing the constituency in 2015.

    “Clearly a large chunk of people for whatever reason would vote for a Tory council but not a Tory government in Westminster but is this because of a Scouser animosity to ‘Southern out touch Tory Governments’ or simply just the ‘Edgbaston effect’ of the wealthy public sector middle class split ticket voting?”
    A lil bit of anecdotal evidence here but my dad told me about a friend of his who lives on the Wirral who used to claim he always voted Lab in GE’s cos he wanted a Lab government and Tory in LE’s cos they wouldn’t raise his council tax. Who knows how widespread that sentiment is but hey its as good an explanation as any…

  48. Rivers10 –

    Sales in the city fell from 55,000 per day in 1989 to 12,000 per day today.

    But it is often – wrongly – reported by other nationals (amusingly by 2 who sell fewer in Lpool) that not a single copy is bought in Liverpool.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)