Linlithgow & Falkirk East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7384 (12%)
Labour: 19121 (31%)
Lib Dem: 1252 (2%)
SNP: 32055 (52%)
UKIP: 1682 (2.7%)
Others: 103 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12934 (21%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
MARTYN DAY (SNP) Born 1971, Falkirk. West Lothian councillor since 1999. First elected as MP for Linlithgow & Falkirk East in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 6146 (12%)
Lab: 25634 (50%)
LDem: 6589 (13%)
SNP: 13081 (25%)
MAJ: 12553 (24%)
2005
Con: 5486 (12%)
Lab: 22121 (48%)
LDem: 7100 (15%)
SNP: 10919 (24%)
Oth: 763 (2%)
MAJ: 11202 (24%)
2001*
Con: 3252 (10%)
Lab: 18536 (55%)
LDem: 2992 (9%)
SNP: 7824 (23%)
Oth: 1098 (3%)
MAJ: 10712 (32%)
1997
Con: 5813 (14%)
Lab: 23344 (56%)
LDem: 2153 (5%)
SNP: 9959 (24%)
Oth: 326 (1%)
MAJ: 13385 (32%)

2015 Candidates
SANDY BATHO (Conservative)
MICHAEL CONNARTY (Labour) Born 1947, Coatbridge. Educated at St Patricks RC High School and Stirling University. Teacher. Stirling councillor 1977-1990, Leader of Stirling council 1980-1990. Contested Stirling 1983, 1987. MP for Falkirk East 1992 to 2015.
EMMA FARTHING-SYKES (Liberal Democrat)
ALISTAIR FORREST (UKIP)
MARTYN DAY (SNP) Born 1971, Falkirk. West Lothian councillor since 1999.
NEIL MCIVOR (National Front)
Links
Comments - 17 Responses on “Linlithgow & Falkirk East”
  1. Does any local know if the Tory candidate here in 2010 did much? I ask as I met her in the NW once and she works for Tory HQ. Without being unkind, she was a very weighty young lady, aged about 30. Her brother is the new Pendle MP.

  2. You have to admire Tories who stand in seats like this.

  3. I’m assuming Andy JS isn’t her brother, Andy Stephenson MP? ha

  4. I’ve noticed that despite the large numbers of such announcements in England, no Scottish MP apart from Eric Joyce has announced his or her retirement. I don’t think Connarty will go – perhaps Jimmy Hood is one of the leading candidates for retirement, along presumably with Gordon Brown

  5. I wouldnt be so sure about Gordon Brown retiring… he is very well liked in his constituency, its his home town so I could see him carrying on for some time.

  6. My forecast for 2015

    Lab 46
    SNP 35
    Con 11
    LD 4
    Otheers 4

    Turnout 67 (+3)

  7. I do wonder if the Eric Joyce business will have much effect here – hard to call Scottish seats in general until we see the effect of losing the referendum has on the SNP.

  8. Michael Connarty is a very hard working experienced MP , I hope the SNP don’t count their chickens too much on expecting to win here because they could quite easily end up in second place as usual.

  9. SNP hold seat on 26 May 2015

    Armadale figures
    First Count
    Con 6.8%
    Green 2.4%
    SNP 43.4%
    Indep 20.3%
    Lab 27.0%

    Final stage:
    SNP 57.55%
    Lab 42.44%

  10. Connarty’s cameo on PMQs and the response made for interesting viewing, in terms of the attitudes of the major UK and Scottish players towards Labour’s prospects in seats like this.

  11. Michael Connarty might be experienced, and might be hard-working, but much of that hard work and experience has been accrued in the East Falkirk part of the seat (Grangemouth, Polmont).

    In the areas nearer Linlithgow and Bathgate, I don’t think his stock is very high, and Fiona Hyslop MSP is perhaps considered by many as a better representative of those parts of the seat than Michael Connarty MP.

    I know that Cllr Martyn Day was very active in the referendum campaign in Linlithgow, but I couldn’t say if he enjoys any real popularity among the public.

    It’s hard to take anything from that Armadale by-election result, seeing as the Independent won 57% of first votes in 2012.

  12. @Piemonteis

    SNP got more first preference votes (1028) than Labour (788), but the SNP votes were split between two candidates. 4483 total votes cast, so the SNP got 23% and Labour got 18%.

    The independent (Borrowman) got 2541 first preferences. 1852 of those gave a second preference. Of those who gave a second preference, 886 went to Labour (48%), 748 went to the two SNP candidates (40%) and 218 went to the Tory (12%).

    Overall, I would say the SNP were slightly ahead of Labour in this ward in 2012. The result today was much more clear-cut (43% – 27%). Very hard to say what kind of swing though.

    http://www.westlothian.gov.uk/media/3660/West-Lothian-Council-Election-2012-Ward-9-Armadale-and-Blackridge/pdf/ward9results2012.pdf

  13. Interesting result, I think the writing is on the wall for Labour here. Comfortable SNP win by about 3000

  14. I think the SNP might win this one-just!

  15. Labour select Wendy Milne for this seat. In 2001 she was the candidate for the Scottish Socialist Party here.

  16. I read that on Richard Angell’s twitter too

  17. Does the Glasgow tanned man still have a Party?

    I lost track of the SSP, Solidarity, SWP shenanigans around 5 years ago.

    I think the last time he made the papers in England was the various court actions (civil and criminal) after the swingers’ club case.

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