Lincoln

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19976 (42.6%)
Labour: 18533 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 1992 (4.3%)
UKIP: 5721 (12.2%)
TUSC: 344 (0.7%)
Others: 286 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 1443 (3.1%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Lincolnshire. The whole of the Lincoln council area and part of the North Kesteven council area.

Main population centres: Lincoln, Skellingthorpe, Boultham, Waddington.

Profile: The city of Lincoln itself and the villages of Skellingthorpe and Waddington to the west and south of the city respectively. Lincoln is a historic Cathedral city and a commercial and administrative centre. The seat also includes RAF Waddington.

Politics: Lincoln is the oldest Parliamentary constituency in Britain, in continuous existance since 1265. It has been a bellwether seat since October 1974, won by the party that won the most seats at each general election. Prior to that it had an usual political history. In 1972 the sitting Labour MP Dick Taverne resigned from the Labour party and from Parliament to re-contest his seat as an Independent Democratic Labour candidate - the last instance of an MP resigning to contest their seat under a different party label and winning until Douglas Carswell repeated the feat in 2014. Taverne narrowly held the seat again in February 1974, but lost it in the second election that year.


Current MP
KARL MCCARTNEY (Conservative) Born 1968, Birkenhead. Educated at Birkenhead School for Boys and St David`s University College. Former Corporate strategy consultant. Contested Lincoln 2005. First elected as MP for Lincoln in 2005.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17163 (38%)
Lab: 16105 (35%)
LDem: 9256 (20%)
BNP: 1367 (3%)
Oth: 1830 (4%)
MAJ: 1058 (2%)
2005*
Con: 12110 (33%)
Lab: 16724 (45%)
LDem: 6715 (18%)
UKIP: 1308 (4%)
MAJ: 4614 (13%)
2001
Con: 11583 (31%)
Lab: 20003 (54%)
LDem: 4703 (13%)
UKIP: 836 (2%)
MAJ: 8420 (23%)
1997
Con: 14433 (31%)
Lab: 25563 (55%)
LDem: 5048 (11%)
Oth: 175 (0%)
MAJ: 11130 (24%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
KARL MCCARTNEY (Conservative) See above.
LUCY RIGBY (Labour) Born Germany. Solicitor. Islington councillor 2010-2012.
ROSS PEPPER (Liberal Democrat) Born Lincoln. Educated at Lincoln University.
NICK SMITH (UKIP) Contested Lincoln 2005, 2010.
HELEN POWELL (Lincolnshire Independents) Owns a window cleaning business. Lincolnshire councillor. South Kesteven councillor.
ELAINE SMITH (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 80 Responses on “Lincoln”
  1. Wolverhampton, Lancaster and Brentford are all easier gains. Probably even easier than Enfield North.

  2. Good call on Enfield North, Barnaby, particularly as it seems Labour will do rather better in London relative to the rest of the country.

  3. Possibly good news for Labour: the Greens probably aren’t contesting the Lincoln constituency according to a recent post on their Twitter feed. They didn’t do too badly in the Euro elections polling 7.4% or 1,405 votes:

    http://thelincolnite.co.uk/2014/05/lincolnshire-voted-european-elections/

  4. GRN definitely NOT fielding a PPC here! Very nice for Labour.
    (Council website checked)

  5. Conservative Hold. 200 majority.

  6. Labour by about 2,000, helped by the lack of a Green candidate.

  7. There seem to be a few Tories who assume themselves to be so superioir to their opponents thay they refuse to even debate with them, David Cameron of course being another

    Thinking they can get away with it is just another example of how out of touych such peop;e are – and don’t desservew to be returned to Parliament

    I just don’t understand why so many MPs of all parties – a group of people who rightly or wrongly are largely despised by the public – think they are ‘all that’

    Labour gain – 500

  8. Lincoln is naturally a Labour seat on these boundaries and will be exceptionally hard for the Tories to hold. Their victory in 2010 was undoubtedly a fluke, the result of the unusually high Lib Dem vote. On these boundaries this seat would have been comfortably Labour even in 1992.

    Given the amount of pork flowing into Tory marginal seats, I’m surprised the government haven’t done anything about the Lincoln rail crossing, which splits the High Street in half and causes traffic chaos day and night. It has by far and away been the biggest local issue here for decades and is getting worse as the railway gets busier. McCartney has missed a trick by failing to get Osborne’s pork on the case.

  9. Is the word “pork” cockney rhyming slang?

  10. Erm no. It’s an American term.

  11. I’m never one to shy away from a decent pork

  12. With Apple Sauce?

  13. If it’s sufficiently tingly

  14. Given the amount of pork flowing into Tory marginal seats,

    Is that for when Eric Pickles visits?

  15. HH is full of “SPAM”

  16. I genuinely can’t believe that this is a marginal constituency in a tight general election. I have seen barely any activity from either party, Tory posters are largely seen on rural roads into the constituency (typically for candidate in surrounding seats) or on houses that are currently vacant (coming down the A15 near the Cathedral I thought once house owner was brave with 2 massive Tory posters, then saw a sign saying the house is up for rent, and no visible signs of life in the house). Labour haven’t been much better, their constituency club is bedecked in Lucy Rigby posters and that is about it.

    UKIP have performed well in Lincolnshire in all elections since 2013 even taking a county council seat in Lincoln itself in 2013 and Nick Smith will find it easy to hoover up ex-BNP/English Democrat support (2000 votes in 2010). Although TUSC are standing Labour don’t have any real opposition from their left, and cant see the students backing the Lib Dems. Speaking of the Lib Dems, they have chosen a young candidate Ross Pepper who seems nice enough and is “local”, although in Lib Dem speak that can mean anything, probably a toss-up between UKIP and Lib Dems for third place. The Lincolnshire Independents do reasonably well in local elections, and have retained a deposit or two at national elections so I think they have a good chance of retaining their deposit here, although that would reduce the UKIP protest vote a tad.

    Can’t say that either Karl McCartney or Lucy Rigby are great candidates. Although Rigby is from London she should be elected tomorrow with a reasonable majority, as pointed out as earlier this seat should really be a Labour seat unless the Tories win an outright majority. McCartney did well to win in it 2010 but just hasn’t done the work to retain it this time around. However I am sure he’ll be back in 2020!

    Lab – 43%
    Con – 34%
    UKIP – 10%
    Lib Dem – 8%
    Lincolnshire Independents – 4%
    TUSC – >1%

    Lab majority of between 2500-3500

  17. I read an article somewhere on Islington council bwing a “nursery council” where the labour councillors are often parachuted across the country into marginal/safe seats. This has been the case with Margaret Hodge, Luciana Berger, Steohen Twigg, and would have been the case with Jessica Asato had she won in Norwich. Am I the only one who finds something fairly unethical about imposing Londoners in these places? Or do the electorate share my view, thus explaining Labour’s failure in what should have been easy pickings?

  18. It is unsavoury but all parties do it (witness the number of Kensington Conservatives who went on to become candidates all over the country) and I wouldn’t say it usually makes a huge difference to voters.

  19. This MP has declared for Leave.

    The 40 or so other MPs I assume will let us know soon (unless they’re refusing to say like some voters to pollsters).

  20. Saw a comment online that Labour canvassers believe a Labour whipeout from the Lincoinshire county council is likely.

  21. As a Labour canvasser for the Lincolnshire county council elections, I can assure you that we never thought that was likely. We expected to win some seats and we won 6.

  22. Conducted a straw phone poll on Tue 30/May. The result makes it a gain for LAB, the result;
    LAB….48%
    CON….45%
    LD…..3%
    UKIP…3%
    GREEN…1%

  23. Once again, Paul Way’s sophisticated phone polling beats the bookies. Lol.

  24. credit where credit is due even if your sample is one man and a dog

  25. Gosh. Paul’s ‘poll’ was astonishingly accurate – every party within 0.5!

  26. It is pretty eerie…that’s why I commented on this one specifically.. Not sure about any of the others.

  27. The ‘3-way tie’ with parties all on 29% which he predicted in Upper Bann ended up like this

    DUP 43%
    SF 28%
    UUP15%

  28. Oops. Clearly a hit and miss night for Mr Way. I suppose that’s what you get when you ask your Mum and your mates down the pub to predict the election.

  29. Ex Cllr Ian Dolby has been told by a Judge to expect a custodial sentence, after he changed his plea to guilty part way through his trial.

    Police said it was the most disturbing case they had seen in years, as Dolby had photos of unclothed children on his walls and a search of his property discovered over 700 DVDs of child porn material which he had burned off the dark web.

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