Liberal Democrat Defence List

These are the remaining Liberal Democrat seats ordered by the lowest percentage majorities. This does not necessarily mean that the seats at the top would be the most vulnerable Liberal Democrats seats in practice.

1. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)
2. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)
3. Orkney & Shetland Majority 817 (3.6%)
4. Sheffield, Hallam Majority 2353 (4.2%)
5. Leeds North West Majority 2907 (6.7%)
6. Ceredigion Majority 3067 (8.2%)
7. North Norfolk Majority 4043 (8.2%)
8. Westmorland & Lonsdale Majority 8949 (18.3%)
Comments - 1,379 Responses on “Lib Dem Defence”
  1. Sorry I accidentally submitted comment and will comment again shortly

  2. Continuing from above:

    Solihull Con
    Dorset Mid Con
    Norwich S Lab
    Bradford E Lab
    Wells LD or Con
    St Austell & N LD or Con
    Brent C Lab
    Somerton & Frome Con
    Sutton & Cheam LD
    St Ives LD
    Manchester With Lab
    Burnley Lab
    Dunbartonshire E Lab
    Chippenham LD
    Cheadle LD
    Cornwall N LD
    Eastbourne LD
    Taunton Deane LD
    Berwick Con
    Eastleigh LD
    Birmingham Yardley Lab
    Argyll & Bute SNP
    Aberdeenshire W&K LD
    Edinburgh W Lab or LD
    Torbay LD
    Cheltenham LD
    Brecon & Radnorshire LD
    Devon N LD
    Carshalton & Wall LD
    BerwickshireRoxSelkirk LD
    Redcar Lab
    Hornsey & WG Lab
    Portsmouth S Con
    Cardiff C Lab
    Kingston & Surbiton LD
    Cambridge LD
    Southport LD
    Gordon SNP

    Sadly for the LDs they have so many retirements -some seats which I think may have been held had MP decided to stay to fight.

  3. Continuing from above:

    Solihull CON
    Dorset Mid CON
    Norwich S LAB
    Bradford E LAB
    Wells CON
    St Austell & N CON
    Brent C LAB
    Somerton & Frome CON
    Sutton & Cheam –
    St Ives CON
    Manchester With LAB
    Burnley LAB
    Dunbartonshire E LAB
    Chippenham CON
    Cheadle –
    Cornwall N –
    Eastbourne –
    Taunton Deane –
    Berwick CON
    Eastleigh –
    Birmingham Yardley –
    Argyll & Bute Who knows?
    Aberdeenshire W&K –
    Edinburgh W LAB
    Torbay CON
    Cheltenham –
    Brecon & Radnorshire –
    Devon N CON
    Carshalton & Wall –
    BerwickshireRoxSelkirk CON
    Redcar LAB
    Hornsey & WG LAB
    Portsmouth S –
    Cardiff C LAB
    Kingston & Surbiton –
    Cambridge LAB
    Southport –
    Gordon SNP

    Rest LD

  4. Putting aside Scotland

    Con gain:
    Dorset Mid & Poole North
    Somerton & Frome

    Toss up:
    Wells (Munt has had a chance to prove herself with the floods, first time incumbency, probable Con gain, but wouldn’t be surprised with a hold)

    Lab gain:
    Norwich South
    Bradford East
    Brent Central
    Manchester Withington

    Toss up:
    Birmingham Yardley (good LD locals, but this was also the case when the seat was Lab held – but probable hold)
    Hornsey & Wood Green (poor LD locals, probable Labour gain, but no foregone conclusion)
    Cardiff Central

  5. Iain – what about places like Chippenham, St. Ives and St. Austell, Argyll and Bute, Dunbarton

  6. Scottish Seats too hard to call because of the referendum, but if I had to …

    Dunbartonshire East – An area where the LDs have shown resilience post-coalition, and with Labour unlikely to advance much on a good 2010 result (in Scotland) this will be close, but the size of the majority says: Lab gain

    Argyll & Bute – A pretty good Euro result for us here (apply 09-14 changes to 2010 result, you get a LD hold), I am increasingly of the opinion that this is an SNP-LD battle, SNP gain

    Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine – Sir Robert Smith’s personal vote should ensure victory, but this seat will go right down to the wire, hold

    Edinburgh West – I struggle to see us losing this seat due to the 2005 majority, large swing last time meaning smaller one this time, first time incumbency, no Scottish leader for Labour, nontheless locals show this should be: Lab gain

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk – Moore is popular locally, and the Tories aren’t setting Scotland alight, hold

    Gordon – Promising Euro results for us in Aberdeenshire (down less than 1% from 2009), I am increasingly optimistic about this seat, but with Bruce gone I will say SNP gain

    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey – Lack of a clear challenger means Alexander will probably hold on, hold

    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross – Struggle to see Thurso losing, hold

    Fife North East – Campbell standing down, but no obvious challenger, Lib Dems won locals, hold

    Ross Skye & Lochaber – hold

    Orkney & Shetland – hold

  7. Joe

    I am of the opinion that we will hold all our Cornish seats, and possibly gain either Truro & Falmouth or Cornwall SE. Big Lib -> Con swings last time indicate smaller swings, or swings to us this time.

    Cornwall’s an odd place 😛

  8. I agree with you in Scotland, with the possible exception of Berwickshire.

  9. Oh yeah, forgot Chippenham. Good locals for us last year plus first-time incumbency for Hames means I think we will hold on, but yes I absolutely agree that this will be another very close result.

  10. Any you see as gains?

  11. My prediction:
    Oxford West & Abingdon
    Newton Abbot
    One of Truro & Falmouth, Cornwall SE

    Others to watch could be Camborne & Redruth, Montgomeryshire, St Albans, Watford, Winchester

    My two wildcards are Ashfield and Maidstone

  12. Iain
    the idea that the libs will win winchester is, frankly, laughable. it will be a very solid tory hold in what will be a challenging year for the blues. ditto Oxford West…

    the liberals won’t make any gains on their current polling. this is compounded by the fact that the liberal democrat strategy will be entirely defensive.

    think your views on seats which they’ll hold are sound.

  13. Current polling shows some seats where we will bomb (e.g. Manchester Withington), but in, for instance, Oxford West or Newton Abbot, we are up (comparably to the Tories) from 2009.

  14. Yes, Iain isn’t too far wrong. Odd things happen. I’m pleasantly surprised to see someone echoing my view that Maidstone could (small chance, but COULD) potentially be an LD gain, just on the back of an iffy MP and decent locals.

    And Peter, you’re utterly wrong about the LDs gaining nothing. National polls aren’t really indicative of a whole lot in this way. Labour made gains in 2010, and in 1983, and the Lib Dems made gains in ’92, despite generally taking hits. It always happens and always will. That’s the thing about first-past-the-post. Seats will buck the national trend. Sometimes massively.

  15. I haven’t glanced at the most recent polling for a few days, and just stumbled across it… Two polls have the LDs down to 1% nationally, another at 2%, another at pair at 3%. They could still hold a dozen seats if they got 6-7%, maybe, but on 2 or 3? That’s pretty much just Orkney and Shetland. I’ve never credited the commentators who preach Lib Dem wipeout, but these polls are by far the worst the Lib Dems have seen since the late 1980s. Truly shocking. After a couple years at 7-10 percent, I assumed that they’d pretty much hit their floor and it couldn’t get any worse, but they seem to be pretty much down to their own members’ vote, if that. Good lord.

  16. You got a link?

  17. Oh FFS.

    Ben Foley thinks the Lib Dems will be down to 6 seats, Iain thinks they will get 60.

    Is there any sensible discussion on this topic?

  18. Which seat did the Lib Dems gain in 1992?

    They lost Southport, Kincardine & Deeside, Eastbourne, Ribble Valley and Brecon & Radnor shire.

  19. Ben Foley thinks the Lib Dems will be down to 6 seats, Iain thinks they will get 60.
    Is there any sensible discussion on this topic?

    I certainly don’t. I reckon about 40, but I think there will be two or three gains in amongst the destruction.

  20. ‘Which seat did the Lib Dems gain in 1992?
    They lost Southport, Kincardine & Deeside, Eastbourne, Ribble Valley and Brecon & Radnor shire.’

    Brecon & Radnor, Ceredigion & Pembroke North, Greenwich, Southport, Plymouth Devonport, Woolwich

    Bath, Cheltenham, Cornwall North, Devon North

  21. HH. Equally I did not specify 6. I responded to
    Antiochian’s “Clegg must go now.. the party will be blasted back to the stone age in terms of MPs if he stays.” with “LibDems will be back to where they were 50 years ago in terms of MPs whether Clegg is leader or not.” Yes, I was aware that I was implying that sort of number, but did not specify, and have not defended, the _exact_ number, and indeed went on in the same post to talk about below 1970 levels (ie 12 MPs).

    I was presaging my comment on a feeling that the LibDems would fall in the polls – a phenomenon that P.T. Richards is now reporting, and which I suspect will not have finished yet (it may pause, but I suspect the General Election campaign will mean further fall, if it doesn’t fall further in the meantime).

    I was also presaging my comment on my assessment of LD campaigning strength, morale, and funds and the direction of travel of their campaigning strength, morale and funds.

  22. Iain, here’s Wikipedia’s aggregation, which has links to the respective polls (due to comments policy, I won’t post the links separately, but you can peruse at your leisure here):

    And I have consistently said that I expect the Lib Dems to be in the 40-48 range, but recently I’m beginning to think that’s a tad off. More like 30-35, perhaps.

    Also, Ben Foley, I think you’re dead wrong on the Lib Dems going down in the campaign. Quite the reverse. I think their polling will level out to about 8-10% prior to the campaign, and go up a bit during, and, because of the popularity of their incumbents/local factors/strong candidates, they’ll end up in the 14-15% range.

  23. Just in case LDs get excited by the comparison with ’92, remember that LDs then were a mere 4.8% down on the Alliance at the previous election, and well on the way back after their low point of the 1989 European election. For a party to gain seats while dropping more than 15% would require some very unusual constituency-specific effects (pacts/candidates being disowned/etc).

  24. P.T. – I’m not sure those figures are correct on the wiki in all cases. The Ashcroft poll that claims to have them at 1% in the table appears on inspection to actually have them at eight (as can also be surmised from the fact the percentages don’t add to 100). Similarly the Survation figure is at 9 rather than the 1 claimed. Methinks someone’s been playing silly buggers with the table.

  25. Checked the others – the threes should be a nine and an eight, and the two should be a nine.

    Ben: I agree that I think there will be few pick-ups, though I think there will be odd local effects in places, especially they could make a close run in Watford which obviously has extenuating local factors. The Alliance vote was far less concentrated than the LD vote is today, too; generally support for smaller parties tends to coalesce in winnable seats under FPTP, as indeed your party should know as well as any. There will be a few LD seats where they will collapse, but there will also be many, many places where the Lib Dems were formerly running on 25-30% as the main opposition in a safe-ish Lab or Con seat and it is those votes that will be most totally wiped off the map.

  26. P.T. Richards
    Yes, popular incumbents might help the LDs in some places, but considerably less than 10% of constituencies will have a defending LD incumbent, and some of those will be massively unpopular with large chunks of the electorate because of the broken individual pledges on tuition fees, that their opponents will bring to the forefront again. Where the LDs aren’t defending the seat, will they really have the resources/personnel/money to mount an effective enough campaign to bring their ‘strong candidates’ to the attention of enough voters to make difference? I can’t see it.

    Meanwhile all the other parties will see previous LD supporters as worth targetting. As Vernon Bogdanor has put it this evening on BBC Parliament, the anti-tories will vote Labour, the environmentalists will vote Green and the ‘plague on both your houses’ voters will tend to vote UKIP. (OK they won’t all, and it depends on the parties in question running effective enough campaigns, but in each case, a key part of the 2010 LD coalition of support has somewhere else obvious to go).

  27. James, yes I tend to agree, it will be constituencies where the LDs were 3rd and over 20% where they will loose the largest part of their 2010 voter base. However, opinion polls showing they are so far down on the 2010 GE will tend to mean that there will also be discussion around how many seats they will lose, and for reasons lost on me, the electorate seem to like to ‘back the winner’, so lost support in the ‘3rd and over 20%’ (and ‘2nd and well behind’), will also feed into lost support in LD-held and marginal constituencies.

  28. My mistake on the polls, fellas. It did seem weird.

  29. And Ben, I’m not surprised that you don’t get the ‘back the winner’ mentality. You are, after all, a Green supporter.

    The Lib Dem vote will do okay in places where they’re strong, as we see time and again in the locals. It’s seats, especially up north, where they’ll get hammered and lose massive chunks of voters. The idea of the Lib Dems gaining as many as five seats is credible.

  30. which 5 seats are credible lib dem gains? labour held seats? really?

    which tory held seats will they gain?

    Sorry to be a party pooper, but the lib dems/centre party/sdp alliance/whatever you want to call them are heading for their worst share of the vote at any UK General Election since 1970.

    Between 1983 and 2010 inclusive, the centre party/lib dem/ sdp alliance etc. got between 16 and 25% of the vote. Even in 1979, when they were squeezed, the lib dems won 13.9%…

    given current polling they will fail to hit this 14% mark next year. they could rally but 14% is ambitious.

    In this context, it doesn’t really matter what happened in ’92 or ’83 or ’97. It’s all irrelevant.

    I suspect they will gain absolutely nothing. niente. zilch. nichts. sorry to be a killjoy.

    on the other hand, i can see them retaining 40 seats… I think 34 is their absolute floor…that means losing 12 to labour, 9 to the conservatives and 2 to the SNP. (57-12-9-2= 34)… i have shown my reasoning re. which seats elsewhere on this site a few months ago.

    From the absolute floor, I think Alexander will hold inverness. i think they’ll hold sutton and cheam, chippenham, st. ives, north cornwall. ukip’s rise will benefit them in cornwall but could also help them in somerset, so somerton & frome and even Wells could be lib dem holds. 7 +34= 41…. birmingham yardley and, at a pinch, cambridge could be holds…so that makes 43 seats.

    this seems plausible to me. What doesn’t seem plausible, frankly, are lib dem gains in winchester, oxford west…maidstone is a tad more likely but I think it will stay blue…

  31. sorry to flog this dead horse, but are we really saying that the lib dems will gain seats in 2015 that they failed to win in 2010, when it is likely that their vote share will have fallen 10% between those two elections…? I know FPTP has anomalous results occasionally, but the swing against them will be so big, that i can’t see any gains at all.

    This is almost as bizarre as the people who say the lib dems will collapse completely (30 seats), but the tories will be the largest party. As if by magic, the lib dems will collapse in seats which the tories are hoping to win off them, while, by some enchantment, the lib vote remains stickier in seats that labour are trying to take off the tories.

    There’s so much nonsense out there: the euro elections were a triumph for cameron, ukip poses an equal threat to labour and the conservatives; the tories will win a majority (cf. Stephen Fisher and the absurd Dan Hodges). This is all Baron von Munchausen stuff. British punditry in politics is in the dark ages. we need a nate silver to expose a lot this bs.

  32. PT Richards – you seem to be deluding yourself about a party that has just been thumped – deservedly – in 2 national elections.

  33. JJB & Peter, I don’t think I am deluded in the slightest. I’m certainly not a Lib Dem (I’ve voted for them, the Tories, and once (in a local) the SNP before, just to give me credibility on this), but I think it’s reasonable to think that they could make one or two gains. Do I think they’ll make many gains? No. But there are areas where they will remain competitive with the Tories (that is, in seats they do not currently hold), and that, by definition, means that a few of those could be gains. Oxford West? Winchester? Any of the Cornish seats? Montgomery? Newton Abbot? Watford? None of these, obviously, are certain––not by a long shot!––and in all, the Lib Dems are the underdog. That is absolutely true. But when there is a competitive election, when there is a right-wing party (UKIP) sapping votes from the Tories, when there are strong local candidates, and so on, there is always the chance for an upset. I would be shocked if we didn’t see at least one Lib Dem gain, quite frankly. Individual seats buck the trend every single election, without fail. There is no reason to think this election won’t be different.

    Next, Peter: In what universe is Maidstone more likely to go Lib Dem than Oxford West or Winchester? What on earth is your reasoning for that? I’m honestly curious.

    And I think there’s a massive margin for error with the Lib Dems this time around. I could see anything from 25 to 48 seats, honestly. If they take a beating like in the Euros? Well, it could be very bloody. But I doubt they will. I think you are right about one thing, Peter, and that is the likely retention of around 40 seats.

    Lastly… The big difference between 2015 and the elections you highlighted in the ’70s and ’80s is this: the Lib Dems are more locally focused than the Liberals or (especially) the SDP before them. Now, while they’re still quite spread out in terms of electoral strength, they have built up local bases through targeted campaigning and popular incumbent MPs, meaning that they could reasonably do far, far better with around 14% than they did with the same in ’79. I think you’ll agree that the idea of the Lib Dems winning only 11 seats, as they did in ’79, is laughable, and that is largely a product of that increased localization.

  34. Whilst I think LD being reduced to 11 seats is entirely possible, I don’t at the moment think this is the most likely scenario. Retaining 30 seats on 9-11% nationally would be an excellent return for them, although they might get slightly more seats than this.

    Certainly some losses will be those with their bigger majorities as well as the obvious ones.

    As for gains, there would have to be a very unique reason or special kind of loved personality to achieve this (eg Mayor Dorothy Thornhill in Watford perhaps) – whereas a ‘mere’ long-term trending to LDs at the locals in a given constituency will not be enough to give them gains at this particular election.

  35. Oxford West & Abingdon 2013
    Lib Dem – 9,269 (31.2%)
    Conservative – 9,031 (30.4%)
    Labour – 4,985 (16.8%)
    UKIP – 3,374 (11.4%)
    Green – 3,031 (10.2%)

    The Lib Dems gained 4 seats from the Conservatives.

    H.Hemmelig – would you care to point out which of my comments is, in your view, not sensible.

  36. PT Richards…

    I don’t think any of the three putative lib dem gains, oxford west, winchester or maidstone, are likely at all.

    Maidstone saw a big drop in the tory majority in 2010 so, if such a trend continued, it could be in the danger zone. The other two were tory gains, so the trend, if there is one, is positive for the blues, so to speak. that’s what’s behind my thinking.

    But I don’t see any of these as likely lib dem gains at all.

  37. BTW the gains I put forward were Oxford West, Newton Abbot and Truro & Falmouth / Cornwall SE

    Winchester and Maidstone were given as other ‘possibles’, in the same way that Sutton & Cheam is a ‘possible’, though in my view unlikely, Conservative gain.

  38. Okay, Peter. Just wondering, because I don’t think Maidstone is more likely than those other two. The dip for the Tories was probably mainly because of the sitting MP retiring, and perhaps a little latent racism.

    I will continue to say, however, until it is proved incorrect, that it is likely that the Lib Dems will gain a seat or two, in addition to major losses. Lose 20, gain two, perhaps? I’m not saying that any one seat is a likely Lib Dem gain, but when you get tons of close contests thrown in together, generally some will work out in the challenging party’s favor, for any number of reasons. We’ll see, I suppose.

  39. PTR

    I totally “get” your reasoning. Given the random nature of some FPTP results, lib dems could make gains against a national trend in some seemingly unlikely places.

    On this reasoning, the very random nature of those gains means that it is difficult to say where those effects could happen. I get that.

    My point is that this isn’t a normal election. Lib dems will be facing a swing against them like no other in living memory. up to 50% of their vote share in 2010 could disappear. In this context, I am sticking my neck out and saying they won’t make any gains at all.

    Now, I appreciate that what I am saying is the unusual outcome. Ordinarily, even if a party makes net losses, one would expect one or two gains…I just don’t think this will happen next year for the lib dems….but, as you say, “we’ll see”.

  40. I am reposting the analysis I did in November, as the results from the locals (and less relevant the Euros) do not lead me to change it significantly. I’d probably move Cambridge now to probable loss.

    I have been contemplating Liberal prospects at the next election. Firstly existing Liberal held seats:

    Safe (11)

    Yeovil, Bath, Lewes, Bermondsey, Twickenham, Norfolk N, Sheffield Hallam, Westmorland, Fife NE, Ross & Skye, Orkney & Shetland.

    Likely Holds (18)

    Torbay, Devon N, Taunton, Bristol W, Thornbury, Cheltenham, Chippenham, Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Carshalton, Kingston, Colchester, Hazel Grove, Southport, Berwickshire, Aberdeenshire W, Caithness, Ceredigion.

    Tricky (12)

    St Ives, St Austell, Cornwall N (I don’t understand Cornwall), Wells, Sutton, Birmingham Yardley, Cambridge, Leeds NW, Cheadle, Edinburgh W, Inverness, Brecon & Radnor

    Probable losses (13)

    Somerton & Frome, Mid Dorset, Portsmouth S, Hornsey, Solihull, Bradford E, Burnley, Redcar, Berwick, Dunbartonshire E, Gordon, Argyll, Cardiff C

    Dead in the water (3)

    Brent C, Norwich S, Manchester Withington

    This means the Lib Dems are likely to retain at a minimum around 30 seats which means there is a significant chance of a further hung parliament when you take into account the 30 seats from Northern Ireland & nationalists. In addition the Lib Dems always manage to gain a seat or two, including at least one complete surprise, which is by definition unpredictable. In terms of seats where they are close I reckon Montgomery is their best chance. Other seats where they would seem to have a chance (4):

    Newton Abbot
    St Albans
    Oxford W

    Most of the other seats they lost last time will get an incumbency bonus and a declining tactical vote from Labour supporters.

    November 26th, 2013 at 2:34

  41. Disagree that Twickenham, Bermondsey and Norfolk North are safe – UKIP being very strong in the latter and it remaining to be seen whether LD or Tory suffer most in that kind of seat. Could be the kind of seat where LD-ers migrate to UKIP in large chunks, but this is not definitely the case, just a possibility

  42. John Chanin
    I think this is an interesting thread. the fate of the lib dems and ukip, the two minor parties, will be the most interesting development on election night, imo.

    think jyour post is sensible. I don’t happen to think the libs will gain any of the seats you mention. i think there are 5, not 3, seats where the lib dems are dead in the water:

    manchester withington, norwich south, brent central, bradford east & burnley.

    don’t agree that bermondsey is “safe”, though it is a “likely hold”. i also think cheltenham, colchester & hazel grove are much more safe than chippenham and kingston. but generally in agreement there.

  43. I would put Cornwall North, Sutton, Leeds NW, Inverness, Brecon & Radnor from ‘tricky’ into ‘likely hold’
    Chippenham and Aberdeenshire West from ‘likely hold’ to ‘tricky’
    Wells from ‘tricky’ to ‘probable loss’
    Portsmouth South and Gordon from ‘probable loss’ into ‘tricky’

    It’s worth noting that the Lib Dems carried Portsmouth South this year despite the Hancock controversy, and having one fewer candidate than the other main parties.

  44. Watford is also a possible target, they won the council and mayoral elections last month.

    I think Devon N is much more at risk, the Lib Dems have been losing ground for years and this seems to be UKIP country. Torbay had a huge UKIP vote in the Euro elections and is likely to be one of their target seats.

    I agree that they will hold more seats than the polls indicate, as many of their sitting MP’s have local appeal. Portsmouth N however may suffer from an opposite effect.

  45. Here’s an update from my predictions for Lib Dem seats posted last 26 November. Taking into account perhaps one gain from the Conservatives, this suggests they may fall just short of 40 seats. But a lot could change over the next year.

    Safe (16): Bath, Ceredigion, Cheltenham, Colchester, Eastleigh, Fife NE, Lewes, Norfolk N, Orkney & Shetland, Ross & Skye, Sheffield Hallam, Southport, Thornbury & Yate, Twickenham, Westmorland, Yeovil

    Likely Holds (20): Aberdeenshire W, Bermondsey, Berwickshire, Birmingham Yardley, Brecon & Radnor, Bristol W, Caithness, Carshalton, Chippenham, Cornwall W, Devon N, Eastbourne, Hazel Grove, Inverness, Kingston, Leeds NW, St Ives, Taunton Deane, Sutton, Torbay

    Tricky (5): Berwick, Cardiff C, Cheadle, Portsmouth S, St Austell,

    Probable Losses (8): Cambridge, Edinburgh W, Hornsey & Wood Green, Mid-Dorset, Redcar, Solihull, Somerton & Frome,

    Dead in the Water (8): Argyl, Bradford E, Brent C, Burnley, Dunbartonshire E, Gordon, Manchester Withington, Norwich S,

  46. Peter, I guess we will just have to wait. One of us will be right, I suppose. Maybe we’ll end up with another Winchester ’97, and then we can say neither was right!

    I’ll also throw in my take on John Chanin’s predictions. For convenience, I’ve just made an adjusted list:

    Safe (11)
    Yeovil, Bath, Norfolk N, Sheffield Hallam, Westmorland, Ross & Skye, Orkney & Shetland, , Thornbury, Cheltenham, Southport, Twickenham, Leeds NW

    Likely Holds (18)
    Torbay, Devon N, Taunton, Bristol W, Chippenham, Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Carshalton, Kingston, Colchester, Hazel Grove, Berwickshire, Caithness, Ceredigion, Bermondsey, Fife NE, Lewes, Cornwall N, Inverness, Cheadle, Sutton

    Tricky (12)
    St Ives, St Austell, Birmingham Yardley, Edinburgh W, Brecon & Radnor, Aberdeenshire W, Cardiff C, Berwick, Somerton & Frome, Portsmouth S

    Probable losses (13)
    Mid Dorset, Hornsey, Solihull, Burnley, Redcar, Dunbartonshire E, Gordon, Argyll, Wells, Cambridge

    Dead in the water (3)
    Brent C, Norwich S, Manchester Withington, Bradford E

    Just my thoughts. Not going to get into potential gains, as we’ve sort of exhausted that line.

  47. This is what I would surmise :

    Safe (only 9): Bath, Colchester, Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber, Westmorland, Yeovil, Twickenham (IF Cable stands again, otherwise “likely hold”), Sheffield Hallam, Southport

    Likely Holds (20) : Ceredigion, Cheltenham, Bermondsey, Berwickshire, Brecon, Bristol W, Carshalton, Chippenham, N Cornwall, Eastbourne, Hazel Grove, Kingston, Leeds NW, Taunton, Torbay, NE Fife, Lewes, N Norfolk, Thornbury, Portsmouth S

    Tricky, But I’m Going For A Hold (9) : Eastleigh, W Aberdeenshire, Caithness, Chippenham, N Devon, St Ives, Sutton, Cheadle, Inverness

    Close, But I’m Going For LD Defeat (4) : Birmingham Yardley, Cardiff C, St Austell, Edinburgh W

    Probable Losses (9) : Cambridge, Hornsey, Mid Dorset, Redcar, Solihull, Somerton & Frome, Wells, E Dunbartonshire, Gordon

    Dead in the Water (6) : Argyll, Bradford E, Brent C, Burnley, Manchester Withington, Norwich S

    I am aware that the LDs outpolled Labour in Yardley in the local elections, but they frequently did that when Estelle Morris was winning the parliamentary seat. I still think that in a general election it’s very vulnerable to Labour, but certainly not dead in the water.

  48. Oh, and sorry, I didn’t adjust the numbers. They are:

    Safe 12
    Likely Hold 21
    Tricky 10
    Probable loss 10
    Dead in the water 4

  49. I think to call A&B ‘dead in the water’ is ridiculous at this stage. In the Euros it gave us one of our best results, and if the 09-13 swing was replicated in 2015 the seat would be a LD hold.
    I am increasingly of the opinion that this will be a LD-SNP battle, as stated above (somewhere)
    The Tories are not going to improve more than 1-2% in Scotland
    Labour had an extremely good Scottish election in 2010, and if they couldn’t beat us in this year’s Euros with us on <7% nationally then they never will

  50. Barnaby, how would you rate Berwick? (you doubled up on Chippenham).

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