Liberal Democrat Defence List

These are the remaining Liberal Democrat seats ordered by the lowest percentage majorities. This does not necessarily mean that the seats at the top would be the most vulnerable Liberal Democrats seats in practice.

1. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)
2. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)
3. Orkney & Shetland Majority 817 (3.6%)
4. Sheffield, Hallam Majority 2353 (4.2%)
5. Leeds North West Majority 2907 (6.7%)
6. Ceredigion Majority 3067 (8.2%)
7. North Norfolk Majority 4043 (8.2%)
8. Westmorland & Lonsdale Majority 8949 (18.3%)
Comments - 1,354 Responses on “Lib Dem Defence”
  1. I think what this election shows is that:

    1) In the minds of many left of centre voters they are no longer toxic – tactical voting returned in places like Twickenham and Dunbartonshire East


    2) In most places they are seen as irrelevant, with a core vote of 2-3%, lower than at any time in the modern political era.

    The only place I have noticed where they really put on votes from 3rd place is St Alban’s, although they held their vote in quite a bit of London (eg. Wimbledon) and parts of the SW

  2. Don’t forget Ceredigion, Tim Jones.

    I think the Lib Dems did better than expected because the Tories did worse. It’s really that simple. And if May’s, uh, coalition of chaos with the DUP crashes and burns, and her poll ratings go down, a lot of SW and SE seats become options again. That said, there just aren’t that many plausible Lib Dem targets.

    Of their top 17 targets now, 13 are Tory-facing, and of the remaining four, two are nationalist-facing (NE Fife and Ceredigion), and the other two are the ones they just lost (Hallam and Leeds NW).

    Richmond Park, St Ives, Cheltenham, North Devon, Cheadle, Lewes, Wells, St Albans, Hazel Grove, North Cornwall, Winchester and Brecon & Radnorshire, the bulk of that list, all look like plausible targets where they’re in striking range. The exception is Southport, where I suspect they may fall back further in future. The Merseyside Lib Dems are in shambles generally.

    After that come two-Labour facing targets they won’t regain with Corbyn in charge (Bermondsey and Cambridge), and the former of those is unlikely to be regained in any situation I see unfolding ever.

    Then it’s a row of 11 Tory-facing seats with high majorities they probably won’t have a real hope of retaking until they’re on at least 15% nationally, if that happens. (It’s Thornbury, Sutton, Yeovil, Eastleigh, Taunton, Montgomeryshire, Torbay, Chippenham, Guildford, Mid Dorset, and Harrogate, for the curious.)

    After that, they have few seats where they’re even in second that aren’t inner city Labour-held ones they have no hope of winning.

  3. In fact, by my count (working of a map, linked below) there are only 39 seats where the Lib Dems are second.

  4. Richmond Park has got to be their best shot given the slim majority + Richmond Park being very heavily Remain (similar to Twickenham).

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