Liberal Democrat Candidates

The following seats have selected Lib Dem candidates for the next general election:
Page last updated 29th Dec 2014

Aberavon - Helen Ceri Clarke (Labour majority 11039)
Aberconwy - Victor Babu (Conservative majority 3398, LD in 3rd)
Aldershot - Alan Hilliar (Conservative majority 5586)
Altrincham & Sale West - Jane Brophy (Conservative majority 11595)
Amber Valley - Kate Smith (Conservative majority 536, LD in 3rd)
Angus - Sanjay Samani (SNP majority 3282, LD in 4th)
Ashfield - Jason Zadrozny (Labour majority 192)
Basingstoke - Janice Spalding (Conservative majority 13176)
Bassetlaw - Leon Duveen (Labour majority 8215, LD in 3rd)
Bath - Steve Bradley (Lib Dem majority 11883)
Bedford - Mahmud Henry Rogers (Conservative majority 1353, LD in 3rd)
Berwick-upon-Tweed - Julie Porksen (Lib Dem majority 2690)
Bexhill & Battle - Rachel Sadler (Conservative majority 12880)
Birmingham, Edgbaston - Lee Dargue (Labour majority 1274, LD in 3rd)
Birmingham, Hall Green - Jerry Evans (Labour majority 3799, LD in 3rd)
Birmingham, Northfield - Steve Haynes (Labour majority 2782, LD in 3rd)
Birmingham, Selly Oak - Colin Green (Labour majority 3482, LD in 3rd)
Blyth Valley - Jonathan Wallace (Labour majority 6668)
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton - Francis Oppler (Conservative majority 13063)
Bosworth - Michael Mullaney (Conservative majority 5032)
Brent Central - Ibrahim Taguri (Lib Dem majority 1345)
Brentwood & Ongar - David Kendall (Conservative majority 16921)
Bridgwater & Somerset West - Justine Baker (Conservative majority 9249)
Brighton, Pavilion - Chris Bowers (Green majority 1252, LD in 4th)
Bristol East - Abdul Malik (Labour majority 3722, LD in 3rd)
Bristol North West - Clare Campion-Smith (Conservative majority 3274)
Bristol South - Mark Wright (Labour majority 4734)
Bury North - Richard Baum (Conservative majority 2243, LD in 3rd)
Bury South - Paul Ankers (Labour majority 3292, LD in 3rd)
Bury St Edmunds - Steve Chappell (Conservative majority 12380)
Calder Valley - Alisdair Calder McGregor (Conservative majority 6431, LD in 3rd)
Camborne & Redruth - Julia Goldsworthy (Conservative majority 66)
Canterbury - James Flanagan (Conservative majority 6048)
Cardiff West - Cadan ap Tomos (Labour majority 4751, LD in 3rd)
Chesterfield - Julia Cambridge (Labour majority 549)
Chichester - Andrew Smith (Conservative majority 15877)
Chorley - Stephen Fenn (Labour majority 2593, LD in 3rd)
City of Chester - Bob Thompson (Conservative majority 2583, LD in 3rd)
City of Durham - Craig Martin (Labour majority 3067)
Congleton - Peter Hirst (Conservative majority 7063)
Crewe & Nantwich - Roy Wood (Conservative majority 6046, LD in 3rd)
Croydon Central - James Fearnley (Conservative majority 2879, LD in 3rd)
Derby North - Lucy Care (Labour majority 613, LD in 3rd)
Derby South - Joe Naitta (Labour majority 6122, LD in 3rd)
Derbyshire Dales - Ben Fearn (Conservative majority 13866)
Dover - Sarah Smith (Conservative majority 5274, LD in 3rd)
Dulwich & West Norwood - James Barber (Labour majority 9365)
Ealing Central & Acton - Jon Ball (Conservative majority 3716, LD in 3rd)
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow - Paul McGarry (Labour majority 14503, LD in 4th)
East Lothian - Ettie Spencer (Labour majority 12258, LD in 3rd)
East Surrey - David Lee (Conservative majority 16874)
Eddisbury - Ian Priestner (Conservative majority 13255)
Edinburgh South - Pramod Subbaraman (Labour majority 316)
Ellesmere Port & Neston - Trish Derraugh (Labour majority 4331, LD in 3rd)
Eltham - Alex Cunliffe (Labour majority 1663, LD in 3rd)
Epsom & Ewell - Steve Gee (Conservative majority 16134)
Erewash - Martin Garnett (Conservative majority 2501, LD in 3rd)
Erith & Thamesmead - Samson Iriajen (Labour majority 5703, LD in 3rd)
Folkestone & Hythe - Lynne Beaumont (Conservative majority 10122)
Garston & Halewood - Anna Martin (Labour majority 16877)
Gloucester - Jeremy Hilton (Conservative majority 2420, LD in 3rd)
Gordon - Christine Jardine (Lib Dem majority 6748)
Grantham & Stamford - Harrish Bisnauthsing (Conservative majority 14826)
Guildford - Kelly-Marie Blundell (Conservative majority 7782)
Hackney North & Stoke Newington - Simon de Deney (Labour majority 14461)
Hackney South & Shoreditch - Ben Mathis (Labour majority 14288)
Halifax - Mohammed Ilyas (Labour majority 1472, LD in 3rd)
Haltemprice & Howden - Carl Minns (Conservative majority 11602)
Hampstead & Kilburn - Maajid Nawaz (Labour majority 42, LD in 3rd)
Harborough - Zuffar Haq (Conservative majority 9797)
Harrogate & Knaresborough - Helen Flynn (Conservative majority 1039)
Harrow East - Ross Barlow (Conservative majority 3403, LD in 3rd)
Harwich & North Essex - Dominic Graham (Conservative majority 11447)
Hastings & Rye - Nick Perry (Conservative majority 1993, LD in 3rd)
Hazel Grove - Lisa Smart (Lib Dem majority 6371)
Hemsworth - Mary Macqueen (Labour majority 9844, LD in 3rd)
Hereford & South Herefordshire - Lucy Hurds (Conservative majority 2481)
Hexham - Jeff Reid (Conservative majority 5788)
Heywood & Middleton - Anthony Smith (Labour majority 5971, LD in 3rd)
Holborn & St Pancras - Jill Fraser (Labour majority 9942)
Hove - Lev Eakins (Conservative majority 1868, LD in 3rd)
Islington North - Julian Gregory (Labour majority 12401)
Islington South & Finsbury - Terry Stacy (Labour majority 3569)
Kenilworth & Southam - Richard Dickson (Conservative majority 12552)
Kingston-upon-Hull North - Mike Ross (Labour majority 641)
Kingston-upon-Hull West & Hessle - Claire Thomas (Labour majority 5742)
Knowsley - Carl Cashman (Labour majority 25686)
Lancashire West - Daniel Lewis (Labour majority 4343, LD in 3rd)
Leeds East - Edward Sanderson (Labour majority 10293, LD in 3rd)
Leeds North East - Aqila Choudhry (Labour majority 4545, LD in 3rd)
Lewisham East - Julia Fletcher (Labour majority 6216)
Lewisham West & Penge - Alex Feakes (Labour majority 5828)
Lewisham, Deptford - Michael Bukola (Labour majority 12499)
Liverpool, Riverside - Paul Childs (Labour majority 14173)
Liverpool, Walton - Pat Moloney (Labour majority 19818)
Liverpool, Wavertree - Leo Evans (Labour majority 7167)
Liverpool, West Derby - Paul Twigger (Labour majority 18467)
Ludlow - Charlotte Barnes (Conservative majority 9749)
Maidenhead - Anthony Hill (Conservative majority 16769)
Maidstone & The Weald - Jasper Gerard (Conservative majority 5889)
Mid Derbyshire - Hilary Jones (Conservative majority 11292, LD in 3rd)
Mid Dorset and North Poole - Vikki Slade (Lib Dem majority 269)
Mid Worcestershire - Margaret Rowley (Conservative majority 15864)
Middlesbrough - Richard Kilpatrick (Labour majority 8689)
Mitcham & Morden - Diana Coman (Labour majority 13666, LD in 3rd)
Mole Valley - Paul Kennedy (Conservative majority 15653)
Monmouth - Veronica German (Conservative majority 10425, LD in 3rd)
Montgomeryshire - Jane Dodds (Conservative majority 1184)
Morecambe & Lunesdale - Matthew Severn (Conservative majority 866, LD in 3rd)
Neath - Clare Bentley (Labour majority 9775, LD in 3rd)
Newbury - Judith Bunting (Conservative majority 12248)
Newcastle upon Tyne Central - Nick Cott (Labour majority 7466)
Newcastle upon Tyne East - Wendy Taylor (Labour majority 4453)
Newport East - Paul Halliday (Labour majority 1650)
Newport West - Ed Townsend (Labour majority 3544, LD in 3rd)
Newton Abbot - Richard Younger-Ross (Conservative majority 523)
North Dorset - Hugo Mieville (Conservative majority 7625)
North East Cambridgeshire - Lucy Netinsgha (Conservative majority 16425)
North East Fife - Tim Brett (Lib Dem majority 9048)
North East Somerset - Wera Hobhouse (Conservative majority 4914, LD in 3rd)
North Somerset - Marcus Kravis (Conservative majority 7862)
North Thanet - George Cunningham (Conservative majority 13528, LD in 3rd)
North Wiltshire - Brian Mathew (Conservative majority 7483)
Northampton North - Angela Paterson (Conservative majority 1936, LD in 3rd)
Northampton South - Sadik Chaudhury (Conservative majority 6004, LD in 3rd)
Norwich North - James Wright (Conservative majority 3901, LD in 3rd)
Nottingham East - Tad Jones (Labour majority 6969)
Nottingham North - Tony Sutton (Labour majority 8138, LD in 3rd)
Oldham East & Saddleworth - Richard Marbrow (Labour majority 103)
Oldham West & Royton - Garth Harkness (Labour majority 9352, LD in 3rd)
Oxford East - Mark Mann (Labour majority 4581)
Oxford West & Abingdon - Layla Moran (Conservative majority 176)
Penrith & The Border - Neil Hughes (Conservative majority 11241)
Pontypridd - Mike Powell (Labour majority 2785)
Poole - Philip Eades (Conservative majority 7541)
Portsmouth North - Darren Sanders (Conservative majority 7289, LD in 3rd)
Portsmouth South - Gerald Vernon-Jackson (Lib Dem majority 5200)
Preston - Jo Barton (Labour majority 7733)
Reading East - Jenny Woods (Conservative majority 7605)
Reading West - Meri O`Connell (Conservative majority 6004, LD in 3rd)
Redcar - Josh Mason (Lib Dem majority 5214)
Ribble Valley - Jackie Pearcey (Conservative majority 14769, LD in 3rd)
Richmond (Yorks) - Chris Foote-Wood (Conservative majority 23336)
Richmond Park - Robin Meltzer (Conservative majority 4091)
Rochdale - Andy Kelly (Labour majority 889)
Romsey & Southampton North - Ben Nicholls (Conservative majority 4156)
Rutland & Melton - Edward Reynolds (Conservative majority 14000)
Saffron Walden - Mike Hibbs (Conservative majority 15242)
Salisbury - Reetendranath Banerji (Conservative majority 5966)
Sevenoaks - Alan Bullion (Conservative majority 17515)
Sheffield Central - Joe Otten (Labour majority 165)
Sheffield South East - Gail Smith (Labour majority 10505)
Sheffield, Brightside & Hillsborough - Jonathan Hartson (Labour majority 13632)
Sheffield, Heeley - Simon Clement-Jones (Labour majority 5807)
Shipley - David Smith (Conservative majority 9944, LD in 3rd)
Shrewsbury & Atcham - Christine Tinker (Conservative majority 7944)
Sittingbourne & Sheppey - Keith Nevols (Conservative majority 12383, LD in 3rd)
Somerton & Frome - David Rendel (Lib Dem majority 1817)
South Cambridgeshire - Sebastian Kindersley (Conservative majority 7838)
South East Cambridgeshire - Jonathan Chatfield (Conservative majority 5946)
South East Cornwall - Phil Hutty (Conservative majority 3220)
South Norfolk - Jacky Howe (Conservative majority 10940)
South Northamptonshire - Scott Collins (Conservative majority 20478)
South Ribble - Sue McGuire (Conservative majority 5554, LD in 3rd)
South Suffolk - Grace Weaver (Conservative majority 8689)
South Thanet - Russ Timpson (Conservative majority 7617, LD in 3rd)
South West Devon - Tom Davies (Conservative majority 15874)
South West Surrey - Patrick Haveron (Conservative majority 16318)
South West Wiltshire - Trevor Carbin (Conservative majority 10367)
Spelthorne - Rosie Shimel (Conservative majority 10019)
St Albans - Sandy Walkington (Conservative majority 2305)
Stockport - Daniel Hawthorne (Labour majority 6784, LD in 3rd)
Stratford-on-Avon - Elizabeth Adams (Conservative majority 11346)
Streatham - Amna Ahmed (Labour majority 3259)
Stroud - Adrian Walker-Smith (Conservative majority 1299, LD in 3rd)
Suffolk Coastal - James Sandbach (Conservative majority 9128)
Surrey Heath - Ann-Marie Barker (Conservative majority 17289)
Swansea East - Amina Jamal (Labour majority 10838)
Swansea West - Chris Holley (Labour majority 504)
Taunton Deane - Rachel Gilmour (Lib Dem majority 3993)
Tewkesbury - Alistair Cameron (Conservative majority 6310)
The Cotswolds - Paul Hodgkinson (Conservative majority 12864)
Thirsk & Malton - Dinah Keal (Conservative majority 11281)
Tiverton & Honiton - Stephen Kearney (Conservative majority 9320)
Totnes - Julian Brazil (Conservative majority 4927)
Tottenham - Turhan Ozen (Labour majority 16931)
Truro & Falmouth - Simon Rix (Conservative majority 435)
Vauxhall - Adrian Trett (Labour majority 10651)
Wakefield - David Smith (Labour majority 1613, LD in 3rd)
Wallasey - Kris Brown (Labour majority 8507, LD in 3rd)
Warrington North - Stefan Krizanac (Labour majority 6771, LD in 3rd)
Warrington South - Bob Barr (Conservative majority 1553, LD in 3rd)
Watford - Dorothy Thornhill (Conservative majority 1425)
West Devon and Torridge - Paula Dolphin (Conservative majority 2957)
West Dorset - Ros Kayes (Conservative majority 3923)
Weston-Super-Mare - Mike Bell (Conservative majority 2691)
Wimbledon - Shas Sheehan (Conservative majority 11408)
Winchester - Jackie Porter (Conservative majority 3048)
Wirral West - Peter Reisdorf (Conservative majority 2436, LD in 3rd)
Woking - Chris Took (Conservative majority 6807)
Wokingham - Clive Jones (Conservative majority 13492)
Worthing East & Shoreham - Jemima Bland (Conservative majority 11105)
Worthing West - Hazel Thorpe (Conservative majority 11729)
Wrexham - Rob Walsh (Labour majority 3658)
Wyre & Preston North - John Potter (Conservative majority 15844)
Wythenshawe & Sale East - William Jones (Labour majority 7575, LD in 3rd)
York Central - Nick Love (Labour majority 6451, LD in 3rd)
York Outer - James Blanchard (Conservative majority 3688)

Comments - 480 Responses on “Lib Dem Candidates”
  1. Also, Antiochan doesn’t seem to realise that I am far less pessimistic than most on here concerning Lib Dem prospects…just read The Results posts above mine.

    I’m confident the Lib Dems will end up with 40 or so seats but to expect little change from 57 is barmy…even I can see that.

  2. Thanks Barnaby for your kind words.

    You didn’t answer the question but I guess gut feel powers your psephology..

  3. Certainly not. I analyse polls, trends, election results and other psephological matters. Obviously I have gut feelings as everyone does, but one has to put them aside and concentrate on proper analysis if one is to make predictions which are likely to be accurate, as I aim to do when I make predictions. The reasons for your party’s precipitous decline should be clear enough – coalition, tuition fees, etc., and I think that the party’s decision to back military action in Syria will do them no favours either – and there is no automatic guarantee that there will be a large swing back to them by 2015. There will probably be some recovery in their share of the vote, but at present it is hard to see Labour failing to win in some seats which were LD holds rather than gains in 2010. These include Edinburgh W which hasn’t been won by Labour since the 20s, let alone in 1997. You are obviously entitled to have contrary opinions, but I really wouldn’t be too optimistic. There is no magic formula that says that a party which has made the sort of political decisions that yours has will recover all its lost votes, of which there are millions at present. Some recovery is likely, but not a full-scale one, as H.Hemmelig surely correctly says.

  4. I’m sorry but I can’t prescribe to the theory that the Lib Dems will end up with very few losses.

    Antiochian is indeed entitled to his/her opinion, but I think they’re in for heavy losses, many more than Hemmelig suggests.

    I might end up being wrong as well, but at least I went with what I knew as well as my gut.

  5. To have the three wise men of UKPollingReport onto me at once is truly the Red Badge of Courage (or should I say the Yellowy-Orange Badge of Courage?).

    The fact that none addressed the questions I raised is merely by the by clearly.

    Time will tell… (oops, sorry I forgot the votes for May 2015 have already been cast…)

  6. Antiochian, I’ve already gone into great detail about how I think the Lib Dems will do.

    Others have indicated what they think might happen as well so your questions I would say have largely answered.

  7. I’m sorry Antiochian, I have answered your question, even if I didn’t give you the answer you wanted to read. The answer is very simple. You ask why your party will lose seats that weren’t gains in 2010, and I answer that it is because of the party’s record in government, which has of course included the enactment of very unpopular policies, some of which were directly opposed to previous LD stated policy. The message of the opinion polls can clearly be seen, and unless and until the polls change, there can be no way of avoiding losing a substantial number of seats, both to Labour & the Conservatives, and also in some cases possibly to the SNP. Polls can’t accurately predict what will happen in 2015, it is true; but refusing to believe the polls is a very dangerous policy.

  8. For what it’s worth, this is my prediction for Lib Dem seats in 2015, at this stage

    1. Solihull Con gain
    2. Mid Dorset and North Poole Con gain
    3. Norwich South Lab gain
    4. Bradford East Lab gain
    5. Wells Con gain
    6. St Austell & Newquay LD hold
    7. Brent Central Lab gain
    8. Somerton & Frome LD hold
    9. Sutton & Cheam LD hold
    10. St Ives Majority LD hold
    11. Manchester, Withington Lab gain
    12. Burnley Lab gain
    13. East Dunbartonshire Lab gain
    14. Chippenham LD hold
    15. Cheadle Majority LD hold
    16. North Cornwall LD hold
    17. Eastbourne LD hold
    18. Taunton Deane LD hold
    19. Berwick-upon-Tweed Con gain
    20. Eastleigh LD hold
    21. Birmingham, Yardley LD hold
    22. Argyll & Bute SNP gain
    23. Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine LD hold
    24. Edinburgh West Lab gain
    25. Torbay LD hold
    26. Cheltenham LD hold
    27. Brecon & Radnorshire LD hold
    28. North Devon LD hold
    29. Carshalton & Wallington LD hold
    30. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk LD hold
    31. Redcar Lab gain
    32. Hornsey & Wood Green LD hold
    33. Portsmouth South LD hold
    34. Cardiff Central Lab gain
    35. Kingston & Surbiton LD hold
    36. Cambridge LD hold
    37. Southport LD hold
    38. Gordon SNP gain
    39. Thornbury & Yate LD hold
    40. Colchester LD hold
    41. Hazel Grove LD hold
    42. Lewes LD hold
    43. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross LD hold
    44. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey LD hold
    45. Bermondsey & Old Southwark LD hold
    46. Twickenham LD hold
    47. Bristol West LD hold
    48. Leeds North West LD hold
    49. Ceredigion LD hold
    50. North East Fife LD hold
    51. Yeovil LD hold
    52. North Norfolk LD hold
    53. Westmorland & Lonsdale LD hold
    54. Bath LD hold
    55. Sheffield, Hallam LD hold
    56. Ross, Skye & Lochaber LD hold
    57. Orkney & Shetland LD hold
    58. Oxford West & Abingdon LD gain
    59. Montgomery LD gain

    LD hold 42
    LD gain 2
    LD lose to Lab 9
    LD lose to SNP 2
    LD lose to Con 4

    Total LD seats 44

  9. Hemelig’s prediction looks about right – although i do think the Lib Dems will lose a few more seats to the Tories – and would be very surprised if they unseated Glyn Davies in Montgomery

    I still think their MPs will prove to be more durable than the likes of Barnaby predict – and they will do best in the places where it matters most, even if their share of the popular vote decreases substantially

  10. Tim – your last point is absolutely key.

    We could see the Lib Dems getting 44 seats with only 15-16% of the vote. In the 550 seats where they aren’t in contention, their vote will be wiped out.

    There was speculation on here about Davies not being in the best of health (I think he’s close to 70). If he stands again you’re right, probably a Con hold.

  11. @Tim Jones
    I actually think Hemmelig’s prediction is quite respectable.

    I suppose that just on the off-chance the Lib Dems pick up one or two extra seats they lost last time that will comfort the fall for them somewhat.

    I would also like to make it clear that if I said the nine seats I couldn’t predict at this time were to all stay with them then that would mean I would expect them to end up with 35 MPs- Still not as many as Hemmelig forecasts.

    Until I decide nearer the time however about Brecon and Radnorshire, Caithness, Inverness, LNW, Somerton, Cambridge, Bristol West, Eastbourne and Argyll and which way all these will go then the range of my current forecast is from 26-35 seats for the Lib Dems.

    And this is my list of targets to watch out for that the party may well still challenge strongly in- (I don’t know if they’ll take any of these back though)
    1. Truro and Falmouth
    2. Montgomeryshire
    3. Oxford West and Abingdon
    4. Newton Abbot

    Realistically, other than the ones listed above, I couldn’t possibly see any other bona fide chances of making a gain for them really.

  12. I tend to agree with the Results rather than H Hemmelig, though there isn’t all that huge a gap between their predictions. A few of Hemmelig’s predictions strike me as over-cautious. For instance, I was surprised to see him predicting a Lib Dem hold in Somerton and Frome. Yes, Heath has successfully walked the tightrope before but he hasn’t been able to turn into even a semi-reliable seat. Therefore, I don’t read too much into his previous narrow holds- especially not when the Lib Dems did so poorly in the 2013 locals there.

  13. @Tory
    I really don’t know about Somerton and Frome, but the one thing I am certain of is that it will be very very close once again either way.

    As far as the rest of my predictions are concerned, for now I’m putting them at 26 until I can make my mind up about the undecided ones.

    Hemmelig is of course entitled to his opinion as is everyone- and who knows? Maybe the Lib Dems might spring a few shocks and hold on in places where defeat looks certain. We’ll just have to wait and see who was right…

  14. The Results- oh absolutely. I have a lot of respect for H Hemmelig. We’ll just have to wait and see.

  15. I think you do me a slight injustice Tim. (Though you might reply that you owe me the odd injustice in return for my grievous libels against you 🙂 .) I don’t actually differ that greatly from HH’s predictions. I tend to think that Tory gains from the Lib Dems will be rather modest, and I don’t see Labour gaining distant longshots from them such as Bristol W, Leeds NW or (ugh) Simon Hughes’s seat. Here are, at what is admittedly a very early stage, my predictions where they differ ;
    St Austell & Newquay Con gain
    Hornsey & Wood Green Lab gain
    Cambridge Lab gain
    Montgomeryshire Con hold
    I don’t disagree with any of the other predictions. My mind could of course change. I don’t make these predictions with any certainty, it’s still much too early for that. I would love to see the LDs wiped out, personally, but it won’t happen. I know HH has predicted an LD hold in Hornsey & Wood Green for a long time; but the LD vote in that seat is so predominantly ex-Labour in most wards (Highgate is the greatest exception) that a Labour gain would be my tentative prediction at the moment. I can’t make my mind up about W Oxford & Abingdon between an LD gain & a Con hold – I’d very slightly incline towards the latter at present.

  16. I do not believe the Tories have the ground presence to gain any more than a handful of LD seats. Gains most likely will be limited to seats with a tiny majority and/or a popular incumbent is standing down.

  17. For what it’s worth, I’ll go through my list.

    CONSERVATIVE GAINS

    1) Mid Dorset
    2) Wells
    3) Solihull
    4) Somerton and Frome
    5) Berwick upon Tweed
    6) St Ives
    7) St Austell and Newquay
    8) Sutton and Cheam (v narrowly)

    LABOUR GAINS

    1) Norwich South
    2) Bradford East
    3) Brent Central
    4) Manchester Withington
    5) Burnley
    6) East Dunbartonshire
    7) Birmingham Yardley
    8) Edinburgh West
    9) Cardiff Central
    10) Redcar

    SNP GAINS

    1) Argyll and Bute
    2) Gordon
    3) Inverness etc. (v hard to call, though)

    GAIN TO TBA

    1) Argyll and Bute!

    LD GAIN

    1) Oxford W and Abingdon

    So my current prediction is 36 Liberal Democrat seats.

  18. Oh sorry, posted Argyll and Bute twice! In which case, 37!

  19. So technically you’re closer to my prediction of 44 than to the Results at 26 (though only slightly)

  20. Highland seats have a very high personal vote for incumbents, plus Danny Alexander has been exposed channelling a lot of pork barrel treasury spending to Inverness. I can’t see him losing his seat.

  21. OK I have decided what I think will happen in my nine undecided seats-
    1. Brecon and Radnorshire – Lib Dem hold. Williams I would expect to narrowly hang on to his seat, purely on the basis of incumbency.
    2. Somerton and Frome- Lib Dem hold. I think Heath will put up a good fight and given the amount of times the Tories have been disappointed here, it is by no means certain that they will take this back in 2015.
    3. Cambridge- Labour gain. It is not inconceivable given local election trends that they could come back from third place to take this back.
    4. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross- Lib Dem hold. Not sure if it would be Labour or the SNP that would come the closest to taking this off John Thurso but given its long Liberal tradition and liking for individual personalities it seems the most likely outcome.
    5. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey- SNP gain. It has the feel of a SNP seat and realistically any large fall in Alexander’s vote could go to them and maybe Labour to turn this into a three-way marginal in the oposition’s favour.
    6. Argyll and Bute- SNP gain. I think the SNP may well be favourites to take this. Labour aren’t completely out of it but I would say given the fact the SNP held the old Argyll seat in the 1970s they look like the clear challengers.
    7. Leeds North West- Lib Dem hold. With Labour so far back in third place, it will be difficult for them to win this in one go. Therefore, Mulholland may well be spared.
    8. Bristol West- Lib Dem hold. Barring some kind of ginormous Labour swing, Williams’ majority at worst will probably be marginal.
    9. Eastbourne- Lib Dem hold. Lloyd will get better known in the constituency and as well as the high potential for both UKIP and BNP to stand again it could just favour him.

    That completes the Tipping Forecast, with my best bet being for the Lib Dems to end up on 35 seats in 2015 at the end of the night.

  22. Correction- 32 seats is the prediction.

  23. I think HH is probably right. I would be very wary of predicting a Tory gain in Sutton & Cheam despite the narrow LD majority. The ability of the local Tory Party, and its various parliamentary candidates, to shoot themselves in the foot should never be underestimated. Logically, the Tories are bound to win the seat back some time, but I don’t feel they’re ready to do so at the moment. Much though I dislike the man, I really can’t see Danny Alexander losing, especially as the vote against him is bound to be rather split between the SNP & Labour. The SNP’s star, while still pretty bright, is probably gradually waning just a little and you have to remember that the majority of the constituency has never had an SNP MP (though Nairn & some other parts have). If anything I reckon they’re in fractionally more danger in Caithness, but the same applies re the split vote. St Ives is a toughie. It all depends where the (probably pretty useful) UKIP vote comes from. It will, I suspect, come rather more evenly from the LDs & Tories than in most seats, but it might JUST come just disproportionately enough from the Tories to allow Andrew George to scrape back in by a whisper.

  24. I’m inclined to agree with The Results with regards to Somerton & Frome. It’s a tougher nutt to crack than it looks on paper and the Tories went backwards in 2010

    Obviously you would imagine they would pick a better candidate than in 2010

    I also think the Lib Dems could lose a handful of their rural Scottish constituencies – Gordon, Roxborough, Argylle and would think Danny Alexander has a real fight on his hands to keep his Inverness seat

    As for Labour’s challenge, I agree with most posters although think they might fall short in cardiff central, cambridge and edinburgh west

  25. H Hemmelig- ‘So technically you’re closer to my prediction of 44 than to the Results at 26 (though only slightly)’

    That’s right- you and I are by no means that far apart here!

  26. I said I was closer to the Results because he mentioned that the upper end of his prediction was 35, which is broadly where I am.

  27. Actually I’m now at 32 personally.

    It says a lot that I’m willing to predict a Lib Dem hold in Somerton and Frome but a loss to the SNP in Inverness.

    Any skilled mathematician would undoubtedly look at the respective figures- particularly the majorities and probably think I was bonkers.

    But in these respective seats there are very different contributing factors which I think everyone on here will appreciate and understand.

  28. funny – I still think the Tories will win Somerton & Frome. But the reasons for predicting otherwise are perfectly understandable, and it wouldn’t astonish me to see Heath cling on yet again.

  29. IMO LDs will win between 28 and 42 seats with about 35 the most likely.

  30. @AndyJS
    That is exactly what I have in mind. Even though I think they’ll have 32 at the moment, my overall guide is between 26-35.

  31. List of seats Lib Dems MPs have managed to successfully pass on to successors- (Includes the Liberals)
    1. Orkney and Shetland
    2. Sheffield Hallam
    3. Southport
    4. Argyll and Bute
    5. Montgomeryshire
    6. Eastleigh
    7. Richmond Park
    8. Truro
    9. Brecon and Radnorshire
    9. Rochdale
    10. Cheltenham
    11. Cheadle
    12. Yeovil
    13. Edinburgh West
    14. Torridge and West Devon
    15. Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale
    16. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
    17. North Cornwall

  32. re: the lib dems, the 2010 election results show that it’s almost impossible to guess how well the Lib Dems will doi in certain seats

    Whilst the expenses scandal accounted for a handfull of losses – the party surely would have hung onto Newton Abbott and Cambourne had their candidates not come unstuck by some very minor expense fiddling – others like Montgomery, Oxford West & Abingdon and even Harrogate were really out of the blue

    Likewise, even their most optimistic supporters would not have fancied them holding onto places like Solihull, Mid Dorset and Sutton and Cheam

    And there were other results which we simply inexplicible – winning Redcar and Burnley, Brent Central, the huge swing achieved by the controversial Tim Farron in the once true-blue seat of Westmoreland etc

    My guestimate is that the Lib Dems will be on about 40, although I would not money on it – despite having a 35/1 come in yesterday!

  33. @Tim Jones
    ”re: the lib dems, the 2010 election results show that it’s almost impossible to guess how well the Lib Dems will doi in certain seats”

    Correct. It is a very difficult thing to do as many of them are individuals with their own distinct followings locally.

    ”Whilst the expenses scandal accounted for a handfull of losses – the party surely would have hung onto Newton Abbott and Cambourne had their candidates not come unstuck by some very minor expense fiddling – others like Montgomery, Oxford West & Abingdon and even Harrogate were really out of the blue”

    I agree RE the expenses-caused seat losses but while I agree Montgomery and Oxford West were out of the blue, Harrogate wasn’t a huge surprise given Phil Willis the incumbent had retired- Thereby having the effect of his personal vote unravelling on the new Lib Dem candidate.

    ”Likewise, even their most optimistic supporters would not have fancied them holding onto places like Solihull, Mid Dorset and Sutton and Cheam”

    I agree about Solihull and Sutton and Cheam, but in Mid Dorset the majority was pretty weighty- Well over 6,000- That was surely down to the good campaign that Nick King the Conservative candidate ran.

    ”And there were other results which we simply inexplicible – winning Redcar and Burnley, Brent Central, the huge swing achieved by the controversial Tim Farron in the once true-blue seat of Westmoreland etc”

    Indeed. Redcar was an astonishing result- The accumulative effect of which is that the Lib Dems will at the next general election still be on for an even bigger vote share then they got in 2005 before they even gained the seat, such was the scale of the victory. Burnley was more down to the local popularity of the Lib Dems, coupled with the departure of Kitty Ussher which made the seat even more vulnerable to going down to Birtwistle. Brent Central was down to hard work by Sarah Teather who was already well-known in Brent East. Finally, Farron is Farron who works his magic for reasons not truly known to anyone on this site I imagine.

    ”My guestimate is that the Lib Dems will be on about 40, although I would not money on it – despite having a 35/1 come in yesterday!”

    I wouldn’t full stop- I couldn’t risk making money on predictions in any circumstance- It’s not my game. Even though I don’t bet, do you know what the current odds are on the Lib Dems getting somewhere between 26-35 seats?

  34. ‘I wouldn’t full stop- I couldn’t risk making money on predictions in any circumstance- It’s not my game. Even though I don’t bet, do you know what the current odds are on the Lib Dems getting somewhere between 26-35 seats?’

    No idea to be honest – it was a football bet I made yesterday – on Sturridge acoring in a 1-0 win over United at Anfield

    I don’t often bet on politics. I had a bet on the 2012 presidential debate – but my bet was based on Romney winning Virginia and Florida – and he didn’t

  35. @Tim Jones
    Ah, I see. Well done RE Sturridge in the football however.

    I wonder how many people at the last election bet on the Lib Dems getting less seats than they won in 2005?

  36. For what it’s worth, I think the current situation seems analogous with what I imagine the tories felt like in the run up to 1997. The support the LD’s have lost is colossal , yet posters seem deluded into thinking they’ll go around holding seats.

    Is there any particular reason posters seem to think they’ll gain Oxford West and Abingdon?
    (I personally fear Evan Harris getting back into parliament so if anyone has any info on that I’d appreciate it.)

  37. Robberbutton, Evan Harris is not standing again. Layla Moran is the new LD PPC in Oxford West.

  38. Thank heavens for that. Is he trying to get selected any where else, would anyone know?

  39. ”For what it’s worth, I think the current situation seems analogous with what I imagine the tories felt like in the run up to 1997. The support the LD’s have lost is colossal , yet posters seem deluded into thinking they’ll go around holding seats.
    Is there any particular reason posters seem to think they’ll gain Oxford West and Abingdon?
    (I personally fear Evan Harris getting back into parliament so if anyone has any info on that I’d appreciate it.)”

    @Robberbutton
    I actually agree with you. I don’t think they’ll get 40 seats, but I think they’ll do really badly if they don’t get above 30. My current estimate is 32 TBH, I don’t know what yours is but feel free to share if you like.

    I can only speak for myself but I wouldn’t say posters on here have been deluded into thinking anything- There will undoubtedly be individual seats where the outcomes may well surprise you, but I would in truth have to say for the most part they will still lose seats to the Tories, but not as many as one might expect.

    That is not to say of course that I have been swayed by anyone into thinking they’ll get above 30 seats- I’ve had to think carefully about this myself without any godawful sycophancy and with independence- I’ve weighed up individual outcomes and I’ve decided that for the life of me I still can’t see the higher estimates coming off for the Lib Dems- They are for example bound to lose nearly all the seats they hold where Labour are in second place- With a few exceptions as I have already highlighted. Before I decided what the outcomes might be for the nine seats I wasn’t sure about, I had them down to hold/win 26. Now it’s gone up to 32 because I decided they would hold six of these nine and lose three, so there you go.

  40. I tire of reading that every single wafer thin LD seat is some sort of ‘special case’. Doubtless there will be a few…aside from Bermondsey and the Highlands*, I’m not sure there are as many as speculated.

    The amount of support they’ve haemorrhaged is proportionately greater than that of any other party since goodness knows how long. Those votes can’t have all been in seats they don’t hold and a few ultra marginals.

    I don’t have a definite figure but I reckon it’ll be closer to 30 than 40.

    *this would be an interesting seat would it not.

  41. @Robberbutton
    Once again I wholeheartedly agree with those sentiments.

    I honestly didn’t realise however that there were posters even more pessimistic about Lib Dem chances than I was…

  42. This is akin to two bald men fighting over a comb…. never would we have thought that you all cared so much about the poor LibDems…

    “goodness know how long”… is 1918…. and we are still around… despite the best efforts of naysayers to bury the party..

    when it comes down to it, the frenzied TotenTanz in this topic room is really about worries that the party might end up with enough seats to still hold the balance in anything less than a landslide either way and that their own parties will have to consort with compromise yet again.. perish the thought…

    the fact that so many here aren’t up with the LD candidate selections (and the list is admittedly now nearly six months out of date) shows that a lot of prognostications are based upon incomplete information..

    “The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about”.

    Oscar Wilde

  43. @Antiochian
    You can think what you like and pontificate endlessly about your party and the lapping up of Lib Dem chances but the fact remains your party are going to lose seats whether you like it or not.

    And I do indeed not particularly relish the prospect of your party again holding the balance of power- The last thing after all this country needs is another coalition government with your party cropping up either the Tories again or Labour (Which in many ways would be just as bad).

    It is in the best interests of either the Tories or Labour to secure a majority government in 2015 for the good of this country so we will at least have a secure five-year government that actually legitimately won the election democratically and didn’t turn to the third party to shore them up because they were short of the numbers.

  44. Another coalition, with either main party and the LDs, would however be much better than a minority government limping from vote to vote for years on end. Think of 1974-79, and to a lesser extent 1992-97.

    That’s where we may well be headed should the Lib Dems decide they don’t want to go into coalition again, which is a plausible outcome in a hung parliament.

  45. @HHemmelig
    While I understand perfectly well where it is you are coming from, I personally am really fed up with the Lib Dems being in government, largely because it is plain to see that they are gravely unpopular with a huge number of the British population.

    As a consequence, while returning to the days of the February and October 1974 elections would not be great for our Parliament, it would make things a bit more exciting because then the House of Commons would be like a soap opera, with either a Labour or Tory government struggling to hang on in knife-edge votes night after night- That would be quite entertaining and it would liven Parliament up!

    But yes realistically from a constitutional point of view I suppose it makes sense that a government should be stable and secure but it would be much better if a majority of the two main party voters were able to put themselves behind one in particular in order to deliver someone an overall majority.

    For crying out loud, I couldn’t take another coalition- It’s just not what the public want. If there is another Hung Parliament, why not just go to the polls again in a couple of months instead of slogging it away for ages when your party’s political credibility will just shrink?

  46. I’d be intrigued to find out which Liberal Democrat held constituency holds the post-war record for the most unsuccessful Conservative candidates- Orkney and Shetland might be a contender given Jo Grimond beat no fewer than seven Conservative candidates, then Jim Wallace beat four different Conservatives. Alistair Carmichael has defeated two Conservatives, one of whom stood previously four times against Grimond back in the 60’s and 70’s. That means that a total of 12 Conservative Party candidates have lost in Orkney and Shetland since 1950. The list is as follows-
    1. Basil Neven-Spence (1950)
    2. A Tennant (1951)
    3. J Eunson (1955)
    4. G H W Bruce (1959)
    5. Dr. John L Firth (1964, 1966, 1970, Feb 1974, 2001)
    6. R M Fraser (Oct 1974)
    7. C Donaldson (1979)
    8. David Myles (1983)
    9. R W A Jenkins (1987)
    10. Dr. Paul McCormick (1992)
    11. Hope Vere Anderson (1997)
    12. Frank Nairn (2005, 2010)

  47. ‘The support the LD’s have lost is colossal , yet posters seem deluded into thinking they’ll go around holding seats.’

    But all the evidence shows that whilst the lib dems as a party are indeed unpopular, that’s not the case with their individual MP’s, many of whom have already built up quite a substantial personal vote

    They will lose seats to Labour, Tory and probably the Nationalist parties too, certainly in Scotland, but these people predicting a wipe out are way off the mark

  48. David Myles was an outgoing MP in 1983, but his Banff constituency effectively disappeared leaving him without a seat. It was never remotely likely that he would win Orkney & Shetland, not even in 1983.
    I think Robberbutton makes a good point. Nevertheless, the LDs being the sort of party they are – heavily targetting rather than organizing properly nationwide – do tend to enjoy more special case scenarios than the larger 2 parties.
    I’d be interested in WHY Antiochian is so desperate to see the maintenance of the Liberal Democrats.

  49. ”I’d be interested in WHY Antiochian is so desperate to see the maintenance of the Liberal Democrats.”

    It looks as though it may be the case as he is one himself, Barnaby.

  50. Gosh, I have rattled the teacups… Unlike the rest of you though I dare not project how many seats will be lost or gained… and never did I say that no seats would be lost….

    Has any dispassionate observer noticed how one month ago this site was overwhelmingly trending towards “UKIP will conquer the world” commentary and now its “all LibDems will lose their shirts”…?

    Those third… and fourth… and fifth parties…. are really spoiling the fun of playing pass the parcel between the Big Boys… A shrink might interpret it as “coalition envy”..

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