Liberal Democrat Candidates

The following seats have selected Lib Dem candidates for the next general election:
Page last updated 29th Dec 2014

Aberavon - Helen Ceri Clarke (Labour majority 11039)
Aberconwy - Victor Babu (Conservative majority 3398, LD in 3rd)
Aldershot - Alan Hilliar (Conservative majority 5586)
Altrincham & Sale West - Jane Brophy (Conservative majority 11595)
Amber Valley - Kate Smith (Conservative majority 536, LD in 3rd)
Angus - Sanjay Samani (SNP majority 3282, LD in 4th)
Ashfield - Jason Zadrozny (Labour majority 192)
Basingstoke - Janice Spalding (Conservative majority 13176)
Bassetlaw - Leon Duveen (Labour majority 8215, LD in 3rd)
Bath - Steve Bradley (Lib Dem majority 11883)
Bedford - Mahmud Henry Rogers (Conservative majority 1353, LD in 3rd)
Berwick-upon-Tweed - Julie Porksen (Lib Dem majority 2690)
Bexhill & Battle - Rachel Sadler (Conservative majority 12880)
Birmingham, Edgbaston - Lee Dargue (Labour majority 1274, LD in 3rd)
Birmingham, Hall Green - Jerry Evans (Labour majority 3799, LD in 3rd)
Birmingham, Northfield - Steve Haynes (Labour majority 2782, LD in 3rd)
Birmingham, Selly Oak - Colin Green (Labour majority 3482, LD in 3rd)
Blyth Valley - Jonathan Wallace (Labour majority 6668)
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton - Francis Oppler (Conservative majority 13063)
Bosworth - Michael Mullaney (Conservative majority 5032)
Brent Central - Ibrahim Taguri (Lib Dem majority 1345)
Brentwood & Ongar - David Kendall (Conservative majority 16921)
Bridgwater & Somerset West - Justine Baker (Conservative majority 9249)
Brighton, Pavilion - Chris Bowers (Green majority 1252, LD in 4th)
Bristol East - Abdul Malik (Labour majority 3722, LD in 3rd)
Bristol North West - Clare Campion-Smith (Conservative majority 3274)
Bristol South - Mark Wright (Labour majority 4734)
Bury North - Richard Baum (Conservative majority 2243, LD in 3rd)
Bury South - Paul Ankers (Labour majority 3292, LD in 3rd)
Bury St Edmunds - Steve Chappell (Conservative majority 12380)
Calder Valley - Alisdair Calder McGregor (Conservative majority 6431, LD in 3rd)
Camborne & Redruth - Julia Goldsworthy (Conservative majority 66)
Canterbury - James Flanagan (Conservative majority 6048)
Cardiff West - Cadan ap Tomos (Labour majority 4751, LD in 3rd)
Chesterfield - Julia Cambridge (Labour majority 549)
Chichester - Andrew Smith (Conservative majority 15877)
Chorley - Stephen Fenn (Labour majority 2593, LD in 3rd)
City of Chester - Bob Thompson (Conservative majority 2583, LD in 3rd)
City of Durham - Craig Martin (Labour majority 3067)
Congleton - Peter Hirst (Conservative majority 7063)
Crewe & Nantwich - Roy Wood (Conservative majority 6046, LD in 3rd)
Croydon Central - James Fearnley (Conservative majority 2879, LD in 3rd)
Derby North - Lucy Care (Labour majority 613, LD in 3rd)
Derby South - Joe Naitta (Labour majority 6122, LD in 3rd)
Derbyshire Dales - Ben Fearn (Conservative majority 13866)
Dover - Sarah Smith (Conservative majority 5274, LD in 3rd)
Dulwich & West Norwood - James Barber (Labour majority 9365)
Ealing Central & Acton - Jon Ball (Conservative majority 3716, LD in 3rd)
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow - Paul McGarry (Labour majority 14503, LD in 4th)
East Lothian - Ettie Spencer (Labour majority 12258, LD in 3rd)
East Surrey - David Lee (Conservative majority 16874)
Eddisbury - Ian Priestner (Conservative majority 13255)
Edinburgh South - Pramod Subbaraman (Labour majority 316)
Ellesmere Port & Neston - Trish Derraugh (Labour majority 4331, LD in 3rd)
Eltham - Alex Cunliffe (Labour majority 1663, LD in 3rd)
Epsom & Ewell - Steve Gee (Conservative majority 16134)
Erewash - Martin Garnett (Conservative majority 2501, LD in 3rd)
Erith & Thamesmead - Samson Iriajen (Labour majority 5703, LD in 3rd)
Folkestone & Hythe - Lynne Beaumont (Conservative majority 10122)
Garston & Halewood - Anna Martin (Labour majority 16877)
Gloucester - Jeremy Hilton (Conservative majority 2420, LD in 3rd)
Gordon - Christine Jardine (Lib Dem majority 6748)
Grantham & Stamford - Harrish Bisnauthsing (Conservative majority 14826)
Guildford - Kelly-Marie Blundell (Conservative majority 7782)
Hackney North & Stoke Newington - Simon de Deney (Labour majority 14461)
Hackney South & Shoreditch - Ben Mathis (Labour majority 14288)
Halifax - Mohammed Ilyas (Labour majority 1472, LD in 3rd)
Haltemprice & Howden - Carl Minns (Conservative majority 11602)
Hampstead & Kilburn - Maajid Nawaz (Labour majority 42, LD in 3rd)
Harborough - Zuffar Haq (Conservative majority 9797)
Harrogate & Knaresborough - Helen Flynn (Conservative majority 1039)
Harrow East - Ross Barlow (Conservative majority 3403, LD in 3rd)
Harwich & North Essex - Dominic Graham (Conservative majority 11447)
Hastings & Rye - Nick Perry (Conservative majority 1993, LD in 3rd)
Hazel Grove - Lisa Smart (Lib Dem majority 6371)
Hemsworth - Mary Macqueen (Labour majority 9844, LD in 3rd)
Hereford & South Herefordshire - Lucy Hurds (Conservative majority 2481)
Hexham - Jeff Reid (Conservative majority 5788)
Heywood & Middleton - Anthony Smith (Labour majority 5971, LD in 3rd)
Holborn & St Pancras - Jill Fraser (Labour majority 9942)
Hove - Lev Eakins (Conservative majority 1868, LD in 3rd)
Islington North - Julian Gregory (Labour majority 12401)
Islington South & Finsbury - Terry Stacy (Labour majority 3569)
Kenilworth & Southam - Richard Dickson (Conservative majority 12552)
Kingston-upon-Hull North - Mike Ross (Labour majority 641)
Kingston-upon-Hull West & Hessle - Claire Thomas (Labour majority 5742)
Knowsley - Carl Cashman (Labour majority 25686)
Lancashire West - Daniel Lewis (Labour majority 4343, LD in 3rd)
Leeds East - Edward Sanderson (Labour majority 10293, LD in 3rd)
Leeds North East - Aqila Choudhry (Labour majority 4545, LD in 3rd)
Lewisham East - Julia Fletcher (Labour majority 6216)
Lewisham West & Penge - Alex Feakes (Labour majority 5828)
Lewisham, Deptford - Michael Bukola (Labour majority 12499)
Liverpool, Riverside - Paul Childs (Labour majority 14173)
Liverpool, Walton - Pat Moloney (Labour majority 19818)
Liverpool, Wavertree - Leo Evans (Labour majority 7167)
Liverpool, West Derby - Paul Twigger (Labour majority 18467)
Ludlow - Charlotte Barnes (Conservative majority 9749)
Maidenhead - Anthony Hill (Conservative majority 16769)
Maidstone & The Weald - Jasper Gerard (Conservative majority 5889)
Mid Derbyshire - Hilary Jones (Conservative majority 11292, LD in 3rd)
Mid Dorset and North Poole - Vikki Slade (Lib Dem majority 269)
Mid Worcestershire - Margaret Rowley (Conservative majority 15864)
Middlesbrough - Richard Kilpatrick (Labour majority 8689)
Mitcham & Morden - Diana Coman (Labour majority 13666, LD in 3rd)
Mole Valley - Paul Kennedy (Conservative majority 15653)
Monmouth - Veronica German (Conservative majority 10425, LD in 3rd)
Montgomeryshire - Jane Dodds (Conservative majority 1184)
Morecambe & Lunesdale - Matthew Severn (Conservative majority 866, LD in 3rd)
Neath - Clare Bentley (Labour majority 9775, LD in 3rd)
Newbury - Judith Bunting (Conservative majority 12248)
Newcastle upon Tyne Central - Nick Cott (Labour majority 7466)
Newcastle upon Tyne East - Wendy Taylor (Labour majority 4453)
Newport East - Paul Halliday (Labour majority 1650)
Newport West - Ed Townsend (Labour majority 3544, LD in 3rd)
Newton Abbot - Richard Younger-Ross (Conservative majority 523)
North Dorset - Hugo Mieville (Conservative majority 7625)
North East Cambridgeshire - Lucy Netinsgha (Conservative majority 16425)
North East Fife - Tim Brett (Lib Dem majority 9048)
North East Somerset - Wera Hobhouse (Conservative majority 4914, LD in 3rd)
North Somerset - Marcus Kravis (Conservative majority 7862)
North Thanet - George Cunningham (Conservative majority 13528, LD in 3rd)
North Wiltshire - Brian Mathew (Conservative majority 7483)
Northampton North - Angela Paterson (Conservative majority 1936, LD in 3rd)
Northampton South - Sadik Chaudhury (Conservative majority 6004, LD in 3rd)
Norwich North - James Wright (Conservative majority 3901, LD in 3rd)
Nottingham East - Tad Jones (Labour majority 6969)
Nottingham North - Tony Sutton (Labour majority 8138, LD in 3rd)
Oldham East & Saddleworth - Richard Marbrow (Labour majority 103)
Oldham West & Royton - Garth Harkness (Labour majority 9352, LD in 3rd)
Oxford East - Mark Mann (Labour majority 4581)
Oxford West & Abingdon - Layla Moran (Conservative majority 176)
Penrith & The Border - Neil Hughes (Conservative majority 11241)
Pontypridd - Mike Powell (Labour majority 2785)
Poole - Philip Eades (Conservative majority 7541)
Portsmouth North - Darren Sanders (Conservative majority 7289, LD in 3rd)
Portsmouth South - Gerald Vernon-Jackson (Lib Dem majority 5200)
Preston - Jo Barton (Labour majority 7733)
Reading East - Jenny Woods (Conservative majority 7605)
Reading West - Meri O`Connell (Conservative majority 6004, LD in 3rd)
Redcar - Josh Mason (Lib Dem majority 5214)
Ribble Valley - Jackie Pearcey (Conservative majority 14769, LD in 3rd)
Richmond (Yorks) - Chris Foote-Wood (Conservative majority 23336)
Richmond Park - Robin Meltzer (Conservative majority 4091)
Rochdale - Andy Kelly (Labour majority 889)
Romsey & Southampton North - Ben Nicholls (Conservative majority 4156)
Rutland & Melton - Edward Reynolds (Conservative majority 14000)
Saffron Walden - Mike Hibbs (Conservative majority 15242)
Salisbury - Reetendranath Banerji (Conservative majority 5966)
Sevenoaks - Alan Bullion (Conservative majority 17515)
Sheffield Central - Joe Otten (Labour majority 165)
Sheffield South East - Gail Smith (Labour majority 10505)
Sheffield, Brightside & Hillsborough - Jonathan Hartson (Labour majority 13632)
Sheffield, Heeley - Simon Clement-Jones (Labour majority 5807)
Shipley - David Smith (Conservative majority 9944, LD in 3rd)
Shrewsbury & Atcham - Christine Tinker (Conservative majority 7944)
Sittingbourne & Sheppey - Keith Nevols (Conservative majority 12383, LD in 3rd)
Somerton & Frome - David Rendel (Lib Dem majority 1817)
South Cambridgeshire - Sebastian Kindersley (Conservative majority 7838)
South East Cambridgeshire - Jonathan Chatfield (Conservative majority 5946)
South East Cornwall - Phil Hutty (Conservative majority 3220)
South Norfolk - Jacky Howe (Conservative majority 10940)
South Northamptonshire - Scott Collins (Conservative majority 20478)
South Ribble - Sue McGuire (Conservative majority 5554, LD in 3rd)
South Suffolk - Grace Weaver (Conservative majority 8689)
South Thanet - Russ Timpson (Conservative majority 7617, LD in 3rd)
South West Devon - Tom Davies (Conservative majority 15874)
South West Surrey - Patrick Haveron (Conservative majority 16318)
South West Wiltshire - Trevor Carbin (Conservative majority 10367)
Spelthorne - Rosie Shimel (Conservative majority 10019)
St Albans - Sandy Walkington (Conservative majority 2305)
Stockport - Daniel Hawthorne (Labour majority 6784, LD in 3rd)
Stratford-on-Avon - Elizabeth Adams (Conservative majority 11346)
Streatham - Amna Ahmed (Labour majority 3259)
Stroud - Adrian Walker-Smith (Conservative majority 1299, LD in 3rd)
Suffolk Coastal - James Sandbach (Conservative majority 9128)
Surrey Heath - Ann-Marie Barker (Conservative majority 17289)
Swansea East - Amina Jamal (Labour majority 10838)
Swansea West - Chris Holley (Labour majority 504)
Taunton Deane - Rachel Gilmour (Lib Dem majority 3993)
Tewkesbury - Alistair Cameron (Conservative majority 6310)
The Cotswolds - Paul Hodgkinson (Conservative majority 12864)
Thirsk & Malton - Dinah Keal (Conservative majority 11281)
Tiverton & Honiton - Stephen Kearney (Conservative majority 9320)
Totnes - Julian Brazil (Conservative majority 4927)
Tottenham - Turhan Ozen (Labour majority 16931)
Truro & Falmouth - Simon Rix (Conservative majority 435)
Vauxhall - Adrian Trett (Labour majority 10651)
Wakefield - David Smith (Labour majority 1613, LD in 3rd)
Wallasey - Kris Brown (Labour majority 8507, LD in 3rd)
Warrington North - Stefan Krizanac (Labour majority 6771, LD in 3rd)
Warrington South - Bob Barr (Conservative majority 1553, LD in 3rd)
Watford - Dorothy Thornhill (Conservative majority 1425)
West Devon and Torridge - Paula Dolphin (Conservative majority 2957)
West Dorset - Ros Kayes (Conservative majority 3923)
Weston-Super-Mare - Mike Bell (Conservative majority 2691)
Wimbledon - Shas Sheehan (Conservative majority 11408)
Winchester - Jackie Porter (Conservative majority 3048)
Wirral West - Peter Reisdorf (Conservative majority 2436, LD in 3rd)
Woking - Chris Took (Conservative majority 6807)
Wokingham - Clive Jones (Conservative majority 13492)
Worthing East & Shoreham - Jemima Bland (Conservative majority 11105)
Worthing West - Hazel Thorpe (Conservative majority 11729)
Wrexham - Rob Walsh (Labour majority 3658)
Wyre & Preston North - John Potter (Conservative majority 15844)
Wythenshawe & Sale East - William Jones (Labour majority 7575, LD in 3rd)
York Central - Nick Love (Labour majority 6451, LD in 3rd)
York Outer - James Blanchard (Conservative majority 3688)

Comments - 480 Responses on “Lib Dem Candidates”
  1. hmmmm.. LibDem candidate list updated to mid-May while Labour list is updated to end-July….

  2. I would assume Jason Zadrozny would be welcomed again with open arms given his superb performance in 2010 – he remains a local councillor and the public face of the Lib Dems in Ashfield so it’s a reasonable assumption.

    I’ve no idea if he’s been formally selected or not.

    They won’t win Ashfield in 2015 but they will still run Labour relatively close (ie. within 4-5000 votes), unlike the likes of Withington where Labour will beat the Lib Dems much more comfortably.

  3. Its rather important election for the LDs to stay in touch in order that they have a good shot at ousting the annoying Ms Del Piero in 2020.

  4. Yes, if Labour win a small majority in 2015 (so don’t need a coalition with the Lib Dems) and make a real fuck up of running the economy then that might happen in Ashfield and a number of other seats.

    Most likely however is that the Lib Dems are going to stay in government due to the high likelihood of a hung parliament.

  5. Is Zadrozny a Polish name?

  6. Sounds it.

    Quite a few Polish exiles worked in the Notts coal mines after WW2

  7. I reckon it’s possibly Czech

  8. Im pretty certain that it is Polish.

  9. “Quite a few Polish exiles worked in the Notts coal mines after WW2”

    The Labour leader of Broxtowe Council is called Milan Radulovic.

    It sounds as a Polish name too

  10. It sounds more Serbian

  11. Hull councillor Mike Ross selected in Hull N – he stood in Hull W & Hessle 2010

  12. could we have a ukip candidates page

  13. LibDem candidates’ list still wallowing back at May levels….

  14. Only just seen that Mike Ross has been selected for Hull N. One election too late. Had he been the candidate in 2005 he would be the MP now.

  15. List of Liberal Democrat MPs elected in 1992-
    1. Paddy Ashdown (Yeovil, 30, 958, 51.69%, +0.26%, 8, 833 (14.75%) majority, +4.59%)
    2. Alan Beith (Berwick- upon- Tweed, 19, 283, 44.37%, -7.73%, 5, 043 (11.60%, -11.0%)
    3. Simon Hughes (Southwark and Bermondsey, 21, 459, 56.87%, +9.44%, 9, 845(26.09%, +18.37%)
    4. David Steel (Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale, 12, 296, 39.89%, -10.05%, 2, 520 (8.18%, -12.14%)
    5. Menzies Campbell (North East Fife, 19, 430, 46.44%, +1,6%, 3,308 (7.91%, +4.28%)
    6. Charles Kennedy (Ross, Cromarty and Skye, 17, 066, 41.59%, -7.81%, 7, 630 (18.59%, -11.14%)
    7, Russell Johnston (Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber, 13, 258, 26.05%, -10.77%, 458 (0.90%, -10.58%)
    8. Malcolm Bruce (Gordon, 22, 158, 37.45%, -12.01%, 274 (0.46%, -17.13%)
    9. Robert Maclennan (Caithness and Sutherland, 10, 032, 45.13%, -8.49%, 5, 365 (24.13%, -12.79%)
    10. Ray Michie (Argyll and Bute , 12, 739, 34.91%, -2.4%, 2,622 (7.19%, +3.4%)
    11. Alex Carlile (Montgomeryshire, 16,031, 48.50%, +1.91%, 5,209 (15.76%, +7.67%)
    12. Archy Kirkwood (Roxburgh and Berwickshire, 15,852, 46.91%, -2.31%, 4,257 (12.60%, +0.56%)
    13. David Alton (Liverpool Mossley Hill, 19, 809, 47.85%, +4.16%, 2,606 (6.30%, +1.44%)
    14. Matthew Taylor (Truro, 31,230, 50.49%, +1.47%, 7,570 (12.24%, +4.03%)
    15. Jim Wallace (Orkney and Shetland, 9, 575, 46.42%, +4,76%, 5, 033 (24.40%, +6.0%)
    16. Liz Lynne (Rochdale, 22, 776, 42.84%, -0.55%, 1,839 (3.46%, -1.96%)
    17. Don Foster (Bath, 25, 718, 48.82%, +6.26%, 3,768 (7.17%)
    18. Nigel Jones (Cheltenham, 30, 351, 47.34%, +5.01%, 1,668 (2.60%)
    19. Paul Tyler (North Cornwall, 29, 696, 47.41%, +5.55%, 1, 921 (3.07%)
    20. Nicholas Harvey (North Devon, 27, 414, 47.1%, +4,3%, 794 (1.36%)

  16. Derby South: Joe Naitta
    Derby North: Lucy Care

  17. My list of likely challengers for the Lib Dem selections in Sefton Central and Bootle-

    1. Sefton Central- Will probably be between Richard Clein, Andrew Tonkiss, Peter Hough, Carol Tonkiss, Clifford Mainey, Sylvia Mainey and John Gibson.

    2. Bootle- Will probably be between James Murray, Andrew Tonkiss, Peter Hough, and Chris Newby.

  18. List of seats where I think the Lib Dems could readopt the candidate from the 2010 Election-

    1. Sue Doughty (Guildford)
    2. Sandra Gidley (Romsey and Southampton North)
    3. Jason Zadrozny (Ashfield)
    4. Ed Townsend (Newport East)
    5. Peter May (Swansea West)
    6. Andrew Duffield (Hexham)
    7. Jeff Reid (Blyth Valley)
    8. Wendy Taylor (Newcastle upon Tyne East)
    9. Ronald Beadle (Newcastle upon Tyne North)
    10. Martin Tod (Winchester)
    11. Claire Kelley (Harrogate and Knaresborough)
    12. Lembit Opik (Montgomeryshire)

  19. Lembit?

    Lol. He is the single cause of the loss of that seat. Pete Whitehead is probably more likely to be the LD candidate in Montgomeryshire than Lembit is.

  20. ”Lembit?
    Lol. He is the single cause of the loss of that seat. Pete Whitehead is probably more likely to be the LD candidate in Montgomeryshire than Lembit is.”

    Yep I was sort of half-joking with that one TBH.

    Actually the Conservative majority may increase in Montgomeryshire in 2015 as the MP there has a good reputation as a hard worker.

  21. List of seats I think the Lib Dems will probably hold and win at the 2015 General Election, with reasons given in brackets-

    1. Sheffield Hallam (Safe seat for Nick Clegg, who is also Deputy PM and party leader)
    2. Westmorland and Lonsdale (Two words- Tim Farron)
    3. Lewes (Banker for Norman Baker)
    4. Torbay (Somewhat marginal, but Sanders’ profile may just save him here)
    5. Portsmouth South (In spite of his problems, Hancock will do very badly here to lose this seat)
    6. Orkney and Shetland (Never been lost by the party)
    7. Ceredigion (Mark Williams’ personal vote, traditional Lib Dem strength in this part of Mid Wales)
    8. Twickenham (Vince Cable is a well-known figure who will surely never lose his seat)
    9. Kingston and Surbiton (Ed Davey is not as well-known as some of his colleagues but after the massive swing he secured in 2001 the Tories have been out of the picture ever since)
    10. Carshalton and Wallington (The Tories have long had a good candidate in Ken Andrew, but his stumble in 2010 suggests this may stay with Brake in 2015)
    11. Hazel Grove (Although Stunell’s vote share and majority has gone down at three successive elections and may well do for a fourth (whether it is he or another candidate) local elections in this traditional area of Cheshire, now Greater Manchester suggest that the Lib Dems would need a concerted Tory challenge to lose this)
    12. North Norfolk (Lamb has built up a massive personal vote and a huge majority)
    13. Colchester (Could be lost if Russell retires, but if he stays the Lib Dems should hold it)
    14. Southport (Pugh is a very good MP for the town and with the Tories’ problems locally it should stay Lib Dem)
    15. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (The Lib Dems/Liberals have held at least one Borders seat since the 1965 Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles by-election and I can’t see them losing in these parts for a very long time- Moore should be safe)
    16. North East Fife (One of the safer Scottish Lib Dem seats, with or without Campbell for the timebeing)
    17. Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Charles Kennedy’s seat, his personal popularity will easily save him here by a long chalk)
    18. North Devon (Traditional Liberal stronghold in the post-war era with the exceptions of a few Tory MPs and with Harvey not really facing any threat in 2010 it has the feeling of a Lib Dem hold in 2015)
    19. Thornbury and Yate (Could be an interesting one in that Webb has long been safe in this and its predecessor Northavon. But I have him down to hold this)
    20. Cheltenham (The efforts of Horwood should be enough to see him through to Westminster for a third time in 2015, particularly given the Tories couldn’t snatch it off him in 2010 when he was defending the second-lowest majority ever secured by a Lib Dem in the constituency in 2005)
    21. Bath (Big majority, big Lib Dem presence traditionally, and resistance against the Tories means Foster will hold this)
    22. Yeovil (Despite Laws’ past issues this will stay Lib Dem because of the Ashdown legacy)
    23. Taunton Deane (Jeremy Browne has built up a profile for himself and may do well here in 2015, better than some of his colleagues)
    24. Eastleigh (There may be split opposition if UKIP do well again here- That would prevent Thornton from losing this to the Tories or UKIP if their votes are even)
    25. North Cornwall (Rogerson might just survive because of UKIP taking some votes from the Tories and Labour not going that high- This is of course a seat with very little vote for Labour so this might end up being the only Lib Dem seat left in Cornwall come 2015)
    26. Bermondsey and Old Southwark (As long as Hughes stands, the Lib Dems may not lose here)

    As for the of the other 31, there are some I think they will definitely lose and then there are others that I think will be too close to call.

    Of the seats I think the Lib Dems might lose are-
    1. Manchester Withington
    2. Burnley
    3. Redcar
    4. Birmingham Yardley
    5. Cardiff Central
    6. Hornsey and Wood Green
    7. Cheadle
    8. Berwick-upon-Tweed
    9. Sutton and Cheam
    10. Gordon
    11. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
    12. Solihull
    13. Norwich South
    14. Brent Central
    15. Cambridge
    16. St Austell and Newquay
    17. St Ives
    18. East Dunbartonshire
    19. Bradford East
    20. Wells
    21. Chippenham
    22. Mid Dorset and North Poole

    But then I am undecided about the other 9. I think it will be very very close either way in Brecon and Radnorshire, anything could happen in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross and Inverness, Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey is too difficult for me to forecast. Of the others, Leeds North West could either see a massive Labour surge from third place to gain it back or Mulhollland might just hold against split opposition. Then out of Somerton and Frome, Cambridge, Bristol West, Eastbourne and Argyll and Bute these are ones I have no idea about. There are various factors at play in these seats which makes it difficult for me to say which way they will go, along with the aforementioned four.

    The Results

  22. Yikes… talk about out of date on Montgomeyshire…. Jane Dodds was chosen as candidate a month ago… and is “from a Welsh speaking home”.

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/after-lembit-lib-dems-in-montgomeryshire-select-jane-fresh-start-dodds-to-win-back-former-liberal-stronghold-35489.html

    No-one seems to be up on the health problems of the Tory MP either… might even be a by-election before 2015..

  23. I disagree on quite a few:

    N Devon and Berwickshire: Locally not at all good for LDs, potential for a LD->Con swing. The latter I would imagine

    Labour have no real chance at all in Leeds NW
    LDs will not hold Argull and Bute.

  24. @Antiochian

    ”Yikes… talk about out of date on Montgomeyshire…. Jane Dodds was chosen as candidate a month ago… and is “from a Welsh speaking home”.

    No-one seems to be up on the health problems of the Tory MP either… might even be a by-election before 2015..”

    Ah, now then, I must say that is very interesting…

    Surely now the Lib Dems have selected a new candidate this will be a much closer contest for the Conservatives in Montgomeryshire than Glyn Davies would probably like. A by-election would be intriguing as it would be interesting to see if UKIP would do all that well and split the vote sufficiently to either let the Tories hold or let the Lib Dems slip back in through the back door.

    @Joe R
    I was sort of toying with whether the Tories would get back North Devon and BRAS (lol) or not, but in the end I decided that the incumbency factors of Harvey and Moore respectively might save both of them in what are traditional Liberal seats.

    RE Leeds NW I couldn’t decide if the Lib Dems would hold that. As I did say though if they would they would be saved by the fact that Labour were starting out from third place.

    And RE Argyll and Bute, I can’t predict that to save my life- It’s practically a four-way marginal and basically on a good night for the Tories they could win it, but it really for me it will between the Lib Dems, Tories, Labour and the SNP- It’s just a matter of who would win it if the Lib Dems did lose it that I was unsure about TBH.

    P.S. Joe R I will shortly come up with a list of seats that the Lib Dems could realistically gain in 2015 to make up for their potentially heavy losses- You may be pleasantly surprised…

  25. The Results: Chris Newby died last year, and James Murray has left politics altogether.

    The LD’s will come third in Sefton Central and I think 4th in Bootle though they might squeeze the Tories into 4th

  26. Makes you wonder how many other corpses are on The Results’ list of “likely candidates”

    Now where did I put Andrew Kennedy’s blog post again?

  27. @MerseyMike
    Very sorry indeed to hear of Mr. Newby’s passing. I must say also that I am surprised James Murray has left politics, but there you have it.

    RE Sefton Central, I agree that they will come third, even if UKIP increase their vote a bit. In Bootle I reckon UKIP have a good chance of second, especially if Paul Nuttall stands again. I think that if the Tories manage third and the Lib Dems fourth that would be pretty embarassing for them, even though it is a safe Labour seat.

  28. @HHemmelig
    I hope you’re not suggesting that I have done that intentionally, because believe me I didn’t know.

    And also, I found Andrew Kennedy’s post unfair on Matt and others to be quite perfectly honest- as far as I’m concerned nobody on here belongs to “The Walter Mitty Society” as he dubbed this section of the site. I wasn’t deserving of those sentiments he expressed, and neither was anyone else. Quite frankly, if i thought you thought that I was a serious psephological poster (which I in fact am) then I think you wouldn’t be linking me to other people’s accusations about certain posters- I wasn’t even named or explicitly referred to.

    Sometimes I wonder who you actually are…

  29. The “Walter Mitty” insult was quite amusing actually.

  30. @AndyJS
    I suppose it depends which way you look at it.

    If someone predicts what they think is going to happen is in fact imposible, then I suppose it’s befitting.

    But on the other hand for the most part posters on here are factual and well informed.

  31. The Results: I agree with a lot of your predictions. I will simply state where I disagree with you:

    – I’m not sure about North Devon- on the basis of the 2013 CC results, you could argue that Harvey might be in trouble. As it happens, I think he’ll hold on close but it could be a lot closer than you think.

    – I think the Conservatives will gain Somerton and Frome- albeit narrowly. The 2013 CC election results were terrible for the Lib Dems and Heath has a very thin majority.

    – Not sure that the Tories will gain West Aberdeenshire- it could happen but the Tories do so abysmally in Scotland that I’d be very cautious.

    – Not sure about Cheadle. I think the Tories have a chance but the Lib Dem vote has held up well in the Stockport council elections. The Tories will need reasonably big leads in Bramhall to pull it off in my view.

  32. @Tory
    I think Harvey may well hold his seat, purely because it is in area where UKIP already poll well, so therefore the effect of that might mean he holds on.

    RE Somerton and Frome, it had been said time and time again that Heath was going to lose, but he keeps winning again, albeit with highly marginal majorities, so that’s why I am cautious about this one.

    I couldn’t really decide if WAAK was going to be lost, but on balance I would say that a big rise in the SNP vote would cause them a world of problems there.

    Finally, Cheadle looks a bit vulnerable to me. While Hazel Grove next door is one they should hold this doesn’t seem as promising- any seat that was Tory in 1997 should really have never been lost by the party, but I think that given the marginal nature of the seat it does make Hunter’s position decidedly more uncomfortable than Stunell’s.

  33. I think on balance that Tory is closer. I see Cheadle as a very difficult gain for the Tories – I think it has a great deal of affinity with, and has a similar demographic to, Sheffield Hallam which of course has become dreadful for the Conservative Party. I think that the Tories will narrowly win Somerton & Frome this time though – if the LDs can’t win the seat big even in rotten Tory years such as 1997 & 2001, they ought to lose it now. (Yes I KNOW Cheadle voted Conservative in 1997, but that’s a very different type of seat with a different history.) I also think that on balance Sir Robert Smith will just survive in W Aberdeenshire even if only because the anti-LD vote could well be split between the Tories & the SNP, though I wouldn’t totally rule out an SNP gain. I tend to think Sir Nick Harvey will survive narrowly in N Devon though a Tory gain is far from impossible. Of course, I don’t lose much sleep at night wondering which of the coalition parties will win which of these seats, but it isn’t totally uninteresting. TheResults, you seem to be particularly interested in these inter-coalition contests for some reason.

  34. @Barnaby Marder
    Cheadle is one that I am now not 100% about in terms of outcome- I suppose the Lib Dems might hold it, but with a narrow margin like when Patsy Calton gained it in 2001.

    Somerton and Frome as I have already said is one I can’t forecast.

    I think I’ve already made it clear what I thought about WAAK and North Devon.

    Barnaby, I am interested in seeing what happens to the Lib Dems in 2015, but yes I suppose you’re right I will in particular be keeping an eye on the seats where they are in close contests with the Tories.

  35. when did nick harvey get a knighthood???

  36. ”when did nick harvey get a knighthood???”

    According to Wikipedia, after the September 2012 Cabinet Reshuffle.

  37. The No-voters on Syria…for posterity.. in case the info is hard to locate later on…

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23894152

    Gordon Birtwistle (Burnley), Michael Crockart (Edinburgh West), Andrew George (St Ives), Julian Huppert (Cambridge), Dan Rogerson (Cornwall North), Andrew Stunell (Hazel Grove), Ian Swales (Redcar), Sarah Teather (Brent Central) and Roger Williams (Brecon and Radnorshire).

    Paul Burstow (Sutton and Cheam) voted in both lobbies, a technical abstention.

  38. @Antiochian
    Not an awful lot of Lib Dems against there.

    But I was intrigued to note that two of them were Cornish MPs.

    Most of these Lib Dems sit in marginal seats so I wonder if that had anything to do with them voting this way?

  39. almost all Lib Dems live in marginal seats at the moment, with as you will surely agree only a small number of definite exceptions. That doesn’t mean they’ll all lose of course, but there aren’t a lot of them who are at no risk whatsoever of losing.

  40. Councillor Jon Ball has been selected to fight the Ealing Central & Acton seat for the Lib Dems. A good anti-fascist, though naturally I want him to lose (for obvious reasons). He fought the seat in 2010 getting around 12,000 (versus 14,000 for Labour and 17,000 for Tory Angie Bray) so although it looks on paper like a near 3-way marginal in practice the nationwide fall in Lib Dem support is likely to make it a straight Tory/Labour fight with the incumbent Conservative MP the odds-on favourite.

    @ The Results
    Some interesting predictions there but obviously the Lib Dem seat haul in 2015 depends to a certain extent on their nationwide share-of-vote. As I expect this to be 16% I think your estimate of 26+ seats is probably about right.

  41. @Robin Hood
    Cheers. I think they should get more than they did in 1992 at the very least. And who knows? Perhaps if individual results go their way it might actually be more? But alas I’ve made my thoughts well and truly clear on this now.

  42. Yes, they’ll get more seats than they did in 1992 despite polling a slightly lower share of the nationwide vote. They will do this because they are more entrenched than twenty years ago.

  43. Lorely Burt, a parliamentary private secretary (PPS) to Chief Secretary Danny Alexander, abstained after speaking out against military action during the Commons debate.

    PPS Tessa Munt also missed the vote for unknown reasons.

  44. @Robin Hood
    Yes they are well entrenched now. But the irony is that there may well be some seats they won in 1992 that they might lose in 2015 even though they will have more MPs than they did then.

  45. The Lib Dems will not have less than 40 seats in 2015.

  46. ”The Lib Dems will not have less than 40 seats in 2015.”

    Hemmelig they would have to hold on to some difficult marginal seats where the Tories are challenging if that were to be the case.

    Realistically I could see them getting between 30-40 if things improve for them but from my own personal point of view I’m putting their total at 26 as you can see in the posts some way up thread, where I’ve given reasons for why I think seats will or won’t go their way in individual instances- Plus ones that I couldn’t call.

    And if they do get at least 40 that will be a very good night for them.

  47. The Lib Dems will lose something like 12-13 seats to Labour and the SNP, seats which are mostly very obviously lost causes.

    I think the Lib Dems will lose no more than 6-7 seats to the Tories and will probably get 1-2 2010 losses back. Net losses to the Tories will be no more than 5, and they will be the very easiest gains like Solihull and Mid Dorset. The Lib Dems’ incumbency, UKIP and general Tory weakness will ensure they hold on to their other seats.

    That will leave the Lib Dems with roughly 40 seats. I agree it won’t be a bad night for them at all.

  48. @HHemmelig
    So we’re agreed that Solihull and Mid Dorset and North Poole are definite goners for the Lib Dems then.

    It will be interesting to see just how UKIP well end up doing come 2015 and if they do well in the Con-Lib battlegrounds just what effect that will have on the individual outcomes.

    But TBH I really can’t see them gaining many if any seats back. I suppose at a push Oxford West and Abingdon and Truro and Falmouth will be in their sights as ‘targets’ i.e. seats they lost in 2010 for example, but honestly I don’t see them making up for their losses that much.

  49. Please explain to us why the LibDems should lose 12-13 seats to Labour when they didnt gain the same number of seats from Labour when they were tossed out in 2010.

    The LDs lost seats to the Tories last time and if we presume that the Tory vote will be down then why shouldn’t some (all?) of these be recaptured.

    I am also surprised by the repeat of the unsubstantiated canard here that LD voters are just as likely to defect to the UKIP as Tory voters are.Where is the basis in fact in that?

    Beyond all that what are all of these doomsday snapshots based upon as we are still 18 months out from the next election and sorry to mention it, if a week is a long time in politics (ask David Cameron) then 18 months is an eternity.

  50. Antiochian – if you can’t answer that question, with the greatest of respect you are not the brightest bulb in the light show. Obviously the answer is that the LDs have done, are continuing to do, and are generally expected to do far worse than for a long time. It is possible that there could be a modest LD recovery, but if you think it will be a full one I fear that you are deluding yourself.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)