Lewisham, Deptford

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7056 (14.9%)
Labour: 28572 (60.3%)
Lib Dem: 2497 (5.3%)
Green: 5932 (12.5%)
UKIP: 2013 (4.3%)
TUSC: 286 (0.6%)
Independent: 30 (0.1%)
Others: 966 (2%)
MAJORITY: 21516 (45.4%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Lewisham council area.

Main population centres: Deptford, New Cross, Brockley.

Profile: Lewisham Deptford runs from the river Thames through areas of inner city poverty to the beginnings of suburbia in the south. To the north Deptford and New Cross have a trendy arts and music scene and are popular with students and artists, but beyond that there are areas of desolate council housing and deprivation with a large black population. There are severe problems with housing and poverty. Further south areas like Brockley are beginning to follow the familar pattern of gentrification. Old Victorian properties that had been divided up into flats and houses of multiple occupancy in the last century are now being bought up by young urban professionals attracted by cheap prices and the new transport links offered by the Docklands extension.

Politics: Unlike the other two Lewisham seats with their past history of being Lab-Con marginals, Deptford has a long history of very solid Labour support. It has been held by the Labour party since 1935, often with extremely large majorities. This has been a target for the Green party, based around Darren Johnson, the London Assembly member who was a local councillor here. In 2005 the Greens managed over ten percent of the vote here, their second highest in the country, and in 2006 they increased their number of councillors to six. The seat was a target for them at the 2010 election, but was ultimately a disappointment as they lost support, and all but one of their councillors.


Current MP
VICKY FOXCROFT (Labour) Former trade union officer. Lewisham councillor. First elected as MP for Lewisham Deptford in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 5551 (13%)
Lab: 22132 (54%)
LDem: 9633 (23%)
GRN: 2772 (7%)
Oth: 1132 (3%)
MAJ: 12499 (30%)
2005*
Con: 3773 (12%)
Lab: 16902 (56%)
LDem: 5091 (17%)
GRN: 3367 (11%)
Oth: 1260 (4%)
MAJ: 11811 (39%)
2001
Con: 3622 (12%)
Lab: 18915 (65%)
LDem: 3409 (12%)
GRN: 1901 (7%)
Oth: 1260 (4%)
MAJ: 15293 (53%)
1997
Con: 4949 (15%)
Lab: 23827 (71%)
LDem: 3004 (9%)
Oth: 996 (3%)
MAJ: 18878 (56%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BIM AFOLAMI (Conservative) Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Corporate lawyer.
VICKY FOXCROFT (Labour) Trade union officer. Lewisham councillor.
MICHAEL BUKOLA (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Northumbria University. Former HMRC tax specialist. Southwark councillor 2010-2014.
MASSIMO DIMAMBRO (UKIP)
JOHN COUGHLIN (Green) Freelance translator. Lewisham councillor since 2014.
HELEN MERCER (People Before Profit) Lecturer.
MALCOLM MARTIN (CPA) Contested Lewisham Deptford 2010.
PHILIP BADGER (Democratic Reform) Educated at Goldsmiths. Charity Governance Administrator.
CHRIS FLOOD (TUSC)
DAVID HARVEY (no description)
Links
Comments - 136 Responses on “Lewisham Deptford”
  1. Andy, do you reckon the Greens could win in 2020?

  2. LAB 51
    GRN 15
    CON 15
    LD 14
    UKIP 3

  3. Labour will be over 60% here in 2015, and with Labour going up it will be very hard for the Greens to go up at the same time. They will be hard pressed to hold on to 7%, though they will get some defections from the Lib Dems they will almost certainly lose some voters back to Labour.

  4. Won’t Miss Ruddock’s resignation reduce any increase in Labour vote share- that’s why I gave them a slight decrease?

  5. “Won’t Miss Ruddock’s resignation reduce any increase in Labour vote share- that’s why I gave them a slight decrease?”

    I doubt it. Inner City area where people move about a lot, have little idea who their MP is and vote (when they do vote), on party lines.

    This is not Cumbria or Cornwall with some maverick MP that everyone knows.

  6. I believe longterm the Greens will do better in Camden than here.

  7. I don’t agree. Camden is a far more expensive borough than Lewisham to live in and those who would be favourable towards the Greens are being increasingly priced out. I do think the Greens have long-term potential in Lewisham wards around New Cross as well as bits of Lambeth and Southwark like Brixton and Crystal Palace.

  8. This should happen in 2015:

    Lab 61
    Green 13
    Con 11
    LD 10
    others 5

    (this prediction seems sensible as well – same Lab share as in Manchester Central)

  9. My prediction

    Lab 63
    LD 12
    Con 11
    Grn 10
    Others 4

  10. Both of you have the Greens too high. If Labour are, as seems likely, above 60%, then the Greens will be below 10%, probably significantly below. I think they’ve reached a ceiling here.

    The Tories might squeak up to 15% on the back of the patchy gentrification in the north of the seat and it will be a toss up for second place, on balance I think the Lib Dems will drop beneath the Tories.

  11. I agree. I can see this being the result in 2015:

    Labour 64
    Conservative 15
    Liberal Democrat 14
    Green 5
    Others 2

  12. The Green elected in Brockley ward (the Greens held on to both of the seats they were defending in London & gained at least one more) has become the sole opposition member on Lewisham council as the fairly sizeable array of LD councillors, and the sole remaining Tory as expected, were wiped out. I thought perhaps Duwayne Brooks might survive but despite his high profile he too lost to Labour.

  13. This is one of the most annoying webpages in the history of the internet. It gives votes for the winning candidates in each Lewisham ward but not the full results and there don’t seem to be any links to more detailed results:

    http://www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/elections-2014/Pages/Election-results-for-22-May-2014.aspx

  14. True one party state in every way then.

  15. Hang on – there doesn’t seem to be any data in that document. Thanks very much, Lewisham council.

  16. “I don’t agree. Camden is a far more expensive borough than Lewisham to live in and those who would be favourable towards the Greens are being increasingly priced out.”

    Priced out of owner-occupation, maybe, but Camden is increasingly privately rented and that group contains a substantial demographic of the type which could be sympathetic to the Greens.

    I do think it is a flaw of psephology in general that people think (especially in a London context) ‘spiralling house prices, will drift Tory’ when actually the sale market is being propped up by BTLers without a vote, letting to tenants who have little predisposition to Conservatism. OK, rents are going up too, but much more slowly than house prices and not (yet) to an extent that puts them out of reach of young professionals in most places. The type of young professional that gravitates to the non-Hampstead bits of Camden is also more likely on average to be left-leaning and you can see that in the borough election results.

  17. Are you the Simon who used to post on the old site quite a bit and also at another place?

  18. Quite possibly!

  19. I think most people are overestimating support for the Lib Dems. It was only at the last election that the Lib Dems moved into 2nd place. For all the decades I’ve lived here, the Tories have come second here. Considering that Lib Dem support is due to plummet, in this election, I think those placing the Lib Dems in 2nd plce, or in a close 3rd place are completely overlooking these factors. I think the Greens will hold their support, or register a slight increase. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the Greens will finish in 2nd place. They are the official opposition on Lewisham Council (albeit with only one councillor).

  20. The Metro, You Tube and so on have a video of locals here stealing water bottles meant for marathon runners.

    The were all black. That isn’t meant to provoke a race debate, I just hadn’t realised how much of a ‘black area’ this now was. (I thought just Tottenham, Brixton were, although I recall a couple of wards in Birmingham and one in Bristol had a plurality of ‘Black UK’ % on the Census figures). Whereas most such immigration debates tend to centre on the rising Asian or Muslim %.

  21. Deptford, New Cross and central Lewisham (the main parts of this seat) have had a very large black population for a couple of decades now, and in a few spots have started to gentrify quite a bit. It is further out into Catford, Sydenham, Downham, Bellingham (Lewisham East & West seats) where the change has been more recent.

    It’s increasingly common for black people to be muslim BTW

  22. Thanks.

    Yes, that’s true.

    I was in Crosby and Southport today. Both are 99% White and the trainee with me was surprised (he’s from Leicester).

  23. “It’s increasingly common for black people to be muslim BTW”

    Different sort of black people.

    When I was a lad black people were often referred to as West Indian, that being their or their parents place of origin.

    I would guess that for the last decade or two most black immigrants have come from Africa.

  24. MPR – true.

    Although my point was more that there was no visible diversity here as everyone was black ha

    But I realise ethnic minorities tend to be concentrated in certain wards in all cities, ie in Liverpool the only ethnic area is L8 (Princes Park formerly Granby Ward) which is 40% ethnic, whereas Everton Ward – which is merely 1 mile away the other side of the city centre – is 98% White UK. (2011 Census)

    Richard – true, although a lot of Nigerians are Christians and a number of the Caribbean 2nd generation do seem to be Muslim, although some may be converts. I have no idea if Rastafarians are recorded.

  25. @ Lancs Observer

    A very significant proportion of ethnic minority people live in areas where they are indeed a minority. See for example the linked article from this site which mentions that close to half of British Muslims live in areas which are below 20% Muslim.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9666#comments

    While I don’t dispute the specific example you’ve mentioned, I think it’s the exception. Particularly in the South East of England, Black and ethnic minority people are quite dispersed.

  26. Lancs Observer
    I might be wrong but I think your getting mixed up, isn’t Liverpool’s “ethnic” ward Picton?

  27. James E – I can only speak of my knowledge in the North West. Liverpool is certainly the most segregated; but, wards in Bury, Oldham and so on are quite polarised too.

    Rivers10 – no, L8 (Granby Ward til 2004, now Princes Park Ward) has always been the ‘black area’ of Liverpool known as Toxteth.

    Picton Ward doesn’t really cover any one area/district of the city. It’s a sort of ‘bits left over ward’ hinterland between the city centre and the suburbs. Edge Hill was heavily populated years ago (hence the Parliamentary seat represented by David Alton and where Michael Howard stood before him). Picton ward contains a lot of international students so that may be why if driving through during term-time it could be thought of as a somewhat ethnic ward by outsiders. But as I indicated, in the ’91, ’01, ’11 Census Liverpool has always just had the one ethnic ward (which was 30-40% BME whilst eg 10 wards of the outer council estates were all 99% White UK.)

    Picton Ward has an ethnic minority Cllr which might be what you’re thinking of. Liverpool didn’t have any ethnic minority Cllrs at all out of the 99 until the 1990s and there were a couple f high profile fights in the Labour Party re this in the ’90s too.

  28. Census data % black (ie self-identifying as Black African, Black Caribbean or Black Other):

    Camberwell & Peckham 37%
    Croydon North 32%
    Deptford 29%
    Edmonton 27%
    Hackney South 27%
    Tottenham 27%
    Lewisham East 26%
    Erith 26%
    Brent Central 26%
    Dulwich 25%

    All in London. The highest outside London is Birmingham Ladywood (14th,23%) followed by Birmingham Perry Barr (26th, 15%). In other words 24 of the top 25 are in London.

    Note on Birmingham: The highest figure for any ward was Aston at 26%, followed by Soho & Nechells at 24%. All 3 are in Ladywood constituency.

    I haven’t done a national check, but a candidate for the lowest White UK ward in the country must be Lozells & E Handsworth in Birmingham with just 7%.

  29. Oh I have got a nationwide ward listing by ethnicity. The lowest White UK figure is Southall Broadway at 3.5%.

    There was one ward in England where the Black population was (just) over 50% – Peckham. Moss Side in Manchester is the highest outside London (34.5%).

  30. There are no seats that are homogenously Asian. Even if the Asian population in Ilford North continued to increase at the same rate, it would be only around 50% Asian by 2021. Also the Asian communities are themselves relatively diverse, given that there appear to be substantial Muslim, Hindu and Sikh populations there.

  31. Simon – Keith Vaz’s seat is 60% Asian.

    But you’re right in that there’s a split between the Muslim, Hindu and Sikh makeup of that.

  32. Just because a seat is 98% white does not mean it is homogenous. There is significant diversity within the white population which you are totally ignoring. It’s highly disappointing to see young Conservatives subscribing to a very leftist view of “diversity”, believing it only exists among the non white races and that the difference between eg a Latvian and a white Londoner can be ignored.

  33. HH – that’s also true (although MPR is right generally ie wards which are 98% White UK in Merseyside are homogeneous. I realise this won’t be the case in London).

    I see in this seat both the Tory & LD PPCs were posh and black. No doubt HQs thought they’d gain votes here merely by virtue of their race; but, of course, they have little in common with poor black voters.

    It’s almost as odd as the Tories fielding post ethnic candidates in Bootle or Walton as they have done twice in each seat.

  34. Silliest of the silly-season stories so far – a person has been reported to the police for pretending to be the MP for the fictitious constituency of “Deptford & Greenwich”.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2017/08/why-person-pretending-be-mp-deptford-and-greenwich

    Hands up who else missed the “Anna Key” pun?

  35. The Daily Mail mentioned the pun but I didn’t get it until I said it out loud. Rathering interesting to find out Deptford & Greenwich is the proposed constituency in the 2018 boundary review.

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