Leicester West

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8848 (25.6%)
Labour: 16051 (46.5%)
Lib Dem: 1507 (4.4%)
Green: 1878 (5.4%)
UKIP: 5950 (17.2%)
TUSC: 288 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 7203 (20.9%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: East Midlands, Leicestershire. Part of the Leicester council area.

Main population centres: Leicester.

Profile: This is the whitest of the three Leicester seats, and the one with the highest proportion of social housing. Parts of the seat like Braunstone and Beaumont Leys are made up of large local authority estates and around thirty percent of the housing is council or housing association owned, the second highest in the Midlands. The centre of seat, the Westcote area, is more inner city in character and is popular with young professionals and students.

Politics: Historically this used to be the safest Labour seat in Leicester (in the 1983 Conservative landslide it was the only one to remain in Labour hands). However the high Asian populations in Leicester South and Leicester East have pushed them away from the Conservatives and while this is still a safe Labour seat, represented by the party since the second world war, it is the most marginal of the three Leicester seats. Past MPs include the diarist Harold Nicholson, Barnett Janner, his son Greville Janner and Patricia Hewitt, the former Health Secretary.


Current MP
LIZ KENDALL (Labour) Born 1971. Educated at Watford Grammar School for Girls and Cambridge University. Former Director of the Ambulance Service Network and special advisor to Patricia Hewitt. First elected as MP for Leicester West in 2010. Shadow Minister for Care and Older People 2011-2015. Contested the Labour leadership election in 2015. Seen as the candidate of the Blairite right, she finished a poor fourth and declined to serve under Jeremy Corbyn`s leadership.
Past Results
2010
Con: 9728 (27%)
Lab: 13745 (38%)
LDem: 8107 (23%)
BNP: 2158 (6%)
Oth: 2081 (6%)
MAJ: 4017 (11%)
2005*
Con: 8114 (24%)
Lab: 17184 (52%)
LDem: 5803 (17%)
GRN: 1571 (5%)
Oth: 552 (2%)
MAJ: 9070 (27%)
2001
Con: 8375 (25%)
Lab: 18014 (54%)
LDem: 5085 (15%)
GRN: 1074 (3%)
Oth: 671 (2%)
MAJ: 9639 (29%)
1997
Con: 9716 (24%)
Lab: 22580 (55%)
LDem: 5795 (14%)
Oth: 1853 (5%)
MAJ: 12864 (31%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
PAUL BESSANT (Conservative)
LIZ KENDALL (Labour) See above.
IAN BRADWELL (Liberal Democrat)
STUART YOUNG (UKIP)
PETER HAGUE (Green)
HEATHER RAWLING (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 132 Responses on “Leicester West”
  1. From what I’ve heard about a third left to cast there vote. Some yet to receive their ballot. They reckon somewhere near the 250,000 mark.

    From what I’ve heard from the Corbyn camp, currently of those voted 70% have gone with Corbyn with him currently having a majority of 100,000. Looks very favourable but still time left and stupid to call the election before the vote is over.

  2. I’ve just worked it out. If these figures are right, currently Corbyn’s nearest rival’s share is at 20%. Which means last place will be fought over 10%

  3. With 300,000/553,000 either TU affiliated or the £3ers I cannot see a CORBYN fail.

    Indeed I think it more likely he will get 65% FPV then 40%.

    I see the odds on him getting more than 50% are 1/2 now from 2/5 but still means Ladbrokes still think it’s an approx 65% likliehood of him winning without the need for second preferences being counted.

    5 days of voting to go.

  4. MW: “From what I’ve heard about a third left to cast there vote. Some yet to receive their ballot. They reckon somewhere near the 250,000 mark.”

    If true, the Electoral Reform Servces would have surely, made public their concern over that 40 % of the electorate had not received ballot papers?

    where did you get this info?

  5. Not entirely sure that all of them haven’t received there ballots, just that a number of them haven’t. I believe the Electoral Reform Services have declared a statement that they have concerns about the election I think it should be postponed.

  6. “I believe the Electoral Reform Services have declared a statement that they have concerns about the election I think it should be postponed.”

    nothing on twitter or the ERS WEBSITE.

    You think the statement should be postponed?

  7. Sorry my grammar is awful. I meant they thought the election should be postponed. Ben Bradshaw mentioned it in an interview

  8. Deepthroat

    RE Kendall, my view is that if Cooper is pulling ahead of the other moderate candidates, she is probably taking their vote. Since Andy and Yvette have very similar views/voter bases, if Yvette pulls ahead then Andy will fall back. If Kendall ends up at the upper end of polling at around 15(unlikely), then she would likely be beating Andy and thereby come 3rd.
    I fully expect Corbyn to win, but by how much could decide who is chosen as a figurehead of the moderate mps and viewed as a leader in waiting for the eventual coup. If Cooper gets 25-30% plus, she would probably be that person.

  9. The Labour leadership does not look like being anything like close enough to hustify postponement or a legal challenge.

    Such proceedings tend to be very expensive and Labour does not begin to have the money, even with all those extra members’ and supporters’ subscriptions. Also, challenging elections tends to look like sour grapes and therefore rebounds on the person or people making the complaint.

  10. I agree completely that the chances of this leadership election result being at all challenged in any way shape or form by anyone within the Labour Party are rather remote to say the very least.

    Having said that, however, I think it has to be said that the likelihood of there being a change in leader before 2020 is upon us cannot be entirely ruled out either, though I wouldn’t go as far as saying there would be anything like a coup orchestrated to ‘get rid’ of Corbyn from the inside of the party.

    I also do not believe it will be at all easy to change the leadership of Labour so soon after electing a new leader in such a short space of time- It shouldn’t be discounted also that Corbyn could do very well as party leader in the next few years and stop dead in their tracks any attempts by his rivals within the party to challenge his authority.

  11. There was a poll by Labour List to show Liz coming 2nd

  12. “The Times” today reports that Leicester West is undersize, and that the likely boundary adjustments will bring in areas surrounding Leicester that will reduce Labour’s prospects.

    Liz Kendall’s performance in the Labour leadership elections were a disaster. She had nothing like the experience to campaign at this level. Even if there is another Labour Government, it is difficult to see her being given another chance to advance.

    As a safe Labour seat near London, Leicester West has been too amenable to establishment figures like Kendall (or previously Greville Janner, amongst others). Whatever the ofther effects of Corbyn’s election as Leader of the Opposition, it has killed off Blairism/ In this constituency, Labour needs to look for a candidate who can stand up for the consitutency and seek radicasl change rather than use the seat to be a Blairista.

  13. I think that’s rather harsh. I think Liz Kendall does passionately believe what she says, although I would agree that there were frequent occasions where she came across as rather lightweight (and Burnham exactly the same). Neither is really leadership material. I thought the general impression was that Kendall was a decent local MP though?

    I think Yvette Cooper was comfortably the strongest candidate, she’s a clear communicator, clearly extremely intelligent, and seems to have gravitas when she speaks (either in the HoC, or more widely in the media).

  14. Liz Kendall’s problem was she started from a position of assumed power. She shouldn’t have gone in saying some privatisation is good, academies and free schools are here to stay, 2% defence spending minimum, tougher on benefits/immigration etc. She needed to win over the membership, affiliated supporters and sign up £3 supporters by inspiring them with some policies they like and some good rhetoric, then she could use her momentum to seem more competent by announcing some of the aforementioned policies, maybe with some spin or restraint.

  15. Where the he’ll did the notion that Yvette was any.good ever come from?

  16. Frederic Stansfield,

    From where do you get the idea this is close to London? Leicester is closer to Leeds and Manchester than it is to London. Admittedly Labour hold few non-London seats south of here.

  17. Lord Greville Janner, former MP for this seat who was earlier ruled unfit to stand trial over sexual abuse allegations, has died, aged 87: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35142675

  18. Yes, he’s cheated the hangman it seems

  19. More witnesses and victims have now goes public re Janner.

    Operation Hydrant has also updated figures showing that the following are being investigated for child sexual abuse:

    398 Priests
    322 teachers
    302 celebrities and
    99 politicians.

    90% of the above are still living.

  20. ‘302 celebrities’

    What will daytime TV do now?

  21. A former Police Officer has confirmed he will give evidence to the CSA Inquiry [known as Goddard even though she’s resigned]

    He has been researching the Janner case and has received threats and attempts to discredit him:

    https://derbyshireindependent.co.uk/2015/04/18/child-sex-abuse-the-real-story/

  22. 700 people turned up to Leicester West CLP meeting to nominate a candidate for leader.

  23. Do we know who they nominated? It would presumably be Smith.

  24. They had to cancel because the hall only holds 250 people and it was a health and safety hazards

  25. Oh wow. The big positive out of all this mess is people are finally getting politically knowledge. It’s refreshing.

  26. Sorry I meant to say knowledgeable. More illiterati than twitterati

  27. There is some evidence to back this up – studies showing significant increases in interest and knowledge in both politics generally and parliament among young people, plus increases in turnout and voter registration. This reverses the trend that political scientists have been observing for a long time.

    Why? Interest levels always go up a bit around elections/major referendums, but it seems a bit more than that. Perhaps social media is a factor, and perhaps it is something of a reaction against the rise of right-wing populist politics that young people tend to disapprove of.

  28. Time for Liz to be saying goodbye as an MP….Conservative win

  29. Local Tories are quoted as thinking they can win this and on the numbers it does look a plausible tory gain.

  30. Bad news for Labour if Kendall loses her seat. Kendall is one of the MPs that will need to pick up the pieces for the party after the next General Election.

  31. 10.5% swing? I doubt they’ll get it, though it’s probably the only remotely competitive seat in Leicestershire at the moment so it’s likely to be targetted

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