Leeds North East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 15887 (32.9%)
Labour: 23137 (47.9%)
Lib Dem: 2569 (5.3%)
Green: 2541 (5.3%)
UKIP: 3706 (7.7%)
Others: 451 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 7250 (15%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire. Part of the Leeds council area.

Main population centres: Leeds, Eccup.

Profile: A diverse seat covering the northern part of the West Yorkshire city of Leeds. The seat stretches from the countryside around the Eccup reservoir, through affluent residential suburbs like Alwoodley and Moortown with their large Jewish populations, up-and coming neighbourhoods popular with young professionals like Chapel Allerton, down to deprived inner city areas like Chapeltown, the centre of Leeds` afro-carribean community.

Politics: Leeds North-East was traditionally a Tory stronghold, represented by Sir Keith Joseph for thirty years. Social change has made the seat more sympathetic to Labour as large Victorian houses have gradually been converted into flats and homes of multiple occupancy. It was first won by Labour in 1997 (the originally selected Labour candidate, Liz Davies, being blocked by the NEC and replaced by Fabian Hamilton) and has become increasingly safe for them. Even in 2010, one of Labour`s worst ever performances, they retained a majority of almost ten percent here.


Current MP
FABIAN HAMILTON (Labour) Born 1955, London. Educated at Brentwood School and York University. Former graphic designer and computer systems consultant. Leeds councillor 1987-1998. Contested Leeds North East 1992. First elected as MP for Leeds North East in 1997.
Past Results
2010
Con: 15742 (33%)
Lab: 20287 (43%)
LDem: 9310 (20%)
UKIP: 842 (2%)
Oth: 1354 (3%)
MAJ: 4545 (10%)
2005*
Con: 13370 (32%)
Lab: 18632 (45%)
LDem: 8427 (20%)
Oth: 1038 (3%)
MAJ: 5262 (13%)
2001
Con: 12451 (31%)
Lab: 19540 (49%)
LDem: 6325 (16%)
UKIP: 382 (1%)
Oth: 1075 (3%)
MAJ: 7089 (18%)
1997
Con: 15409 (34%)
Lab: 22368 (49%)
LDem: 6318 (14%)
Oth: 468 (1%)
MAJ: 6959 (15%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SIMON WILSON (Conservative)
FABIAN HAMILTON (Labour) See above.
AQILA CHOUDHRY (Liberal Democrat) Charity director. Contested Leeds North East 2010.
WARREN HENDON (UKIP)
EMMA CARTER (Green)
CELIA FOOTE (Alliance Green Socialism)
Links
Comments - 55 Responses on “Leeds North East”
  1. Could Pete make a calculation on how the party leads have changed in the four wards for each election from 1992 onwards.

    It might be interesting to see if the Labour trend has varied across the constituency.

  2. Putting AW’s theory of posts into application.

    Can anyone see this?

  3. This is a bit annoying this failure to display nnew posts. I don’t see how it can be a caching thing as that should affect all new posts. I did see that Barnaby and Lbernard had replied to my posts on Hemel and Hornchurch which made me think they did show up as recent posts to them, but then they might just have visited anyway as they knew there were by-elections there. Barnaby quite often posts local by-election results himself

  4. AS it happens I still have my West Yorkshire spreadsheet open from checking the Pudesy results

    The Conservative leads in 1992 were
    North 31%
    Roundhay 28%
    Moortown 10%
    Chapel Allerton -41%

    1997
    North 1%
    Roundhay -6%
    Moortown -12%
    Chapel Allerton -55%

    2001
    North 1%
    Roundhay -5%
    Moortown -20%
    Chapel Allerton -54%

    2005
    North 11%
    Roundhay 0%
    Moortown -20%
    Chapel Allerton -52%

    2010
    Alwoodley 21%
    Roundhay -7%
    Moortown -12%
    Chapel Allerton -45%

    Obviously there were ward boundary changes which may account for the apparent swing to Labour in Roundhay in 2010. But its possible I understated Labour there in earlier elections, because in local elections in non-general election years (which all the elections prior to 2010 are based on), Labour would not have got their vote out so well

  5. Fascinating figures, Pete.

    The Tory vote has bounced back relatively well in North/Alwoodley and has stayed stable in Chapel Allerton. The real erosion seems to have taken place in Roundhay and Moortown.

  6. The separation of Alwoodly and Roundhay being decisive and possibly caused by demographic change in Roundhay?

    I wonder if Andj JS could give the ethnic breakdown’s of this constituency with their changes since 2001.

  7. Of course, as Barnaby has pointed out on the 2010 thread, the erosion of the Tory position in Leeds North East has been happening for over 40 years. Not even reasonably favourable boundary changes, such as those in 1983, have managed to keep pace with this process because demographic change has spread from ward to ward.

    Barnaby and others are no doubt aware that in 1983, the Commission considered creating a very Tory Leeds North East. I think it would have included what are now Harewood, Wetherby, Alwoodley, Roundhay, and Adel (please correct me if I’m wrong). Would I be right that the Tories might just have held that in 1997? It certainly looks like the sort of seat they would have won fairly comfortably in 2010.

  8. It would have been Conservative in 1997 and by about 14,000 in 2010.

  9. I get the impression a lot of Roundhay itself is still nice, though the ward is huge (as are all Leeds wards) and that part bordering Harehills is succumbing to pro-Labour change.

    Moortown similarly with that part that borders Chapel Allerton.

    Interestingly, Moortown used to be known as the most Jewish part of Leeds, but that position seems to have been taken over some time ago by the far more affluent North/Alwoodley. Roundhay, as a ward, also had a not-insignificant Jewish population which I imagine is much-diminished.

    In fact, this piece of research shows that Moortown is rapidly losing its Jewish residents (lost nearly 30% between 2001 and 2011), in common with areas in Redbridge and Brent in London (see pages 4 and 5). Even Alwoodley has apparently shrunk by 17%…

    http://www.jpr.org.uk/downloads/2011%20Census%20Jewish%20neighbourhoods%20Final.pdf

    I wonder if the population in, say, Harewood has grown at all…have there been movements to very affluent places such as Scarcroft?

  10. Incidentally some wonderful, wonderful person has put the Leeds City Council elections back to year dot (well, 1945), onto Wikipedia…so one can chart how wards have swung about over the years.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leeds_local_elections

    Note how Chapel Allerton and Headingley were once reliable Conservative areas, the latter the seat of the formidable late Jean Searle in the late 1970s…

  11. You are most welcome to use my photo of Fabian Hamilton MP (above), but I do require attribution. Please add a by-line “Photo: Bob Peters Photography(UK)” or something similar.

    Here is a link to the photo on Flickr
    http://flic.kr/p/9uQ312

    Many Thanks,
    Bob Peters

  12. Thank you Bob (and apologies for blatant nicking!) – will add an attribution in the next update.

  13. Pete Whitehead’s figures on changes/trends are actually very interesting.

    I suppose this constituency has a few similarities with Edinburgh South (I have been to Alwoodley).

    Turnout has stayed very high here relatively speaking.

  14. My friend moved to Roundhay some months ago. That and Chapel Allteron are really nice suburbs with lively high streets and decent places for food and drink.

  15. LAB HOLD MAJ : 21%
    LAB 48
    CON 27
    LD 13
    UKIP 7
    GRN 3
    OTH 2

  16. Labour has been very resilient in this seat, although part of it is probably down to favourable demographics. It is, as the description shows, a very mixed constituency ranging from suburban middle class to more deprived.

    Roundhay, as I mentioned in my November post, is a very nice area. Surprised that all three Labour councillors represent the ward.

    A falling Lib Dem vote will no doubt boost Labour here in 2015.

  17. Before moving a year ago I lived in roundhay for 15 years… It has never been as nice or as affluent as people from outside the area have made out but I think and has declined slightly since 1992 but I think the main change has been in the age demographic.

    With the cost of housing in places like horsforth, yeadon, cookridge e.c.t (wards which fall into pudsey or leeds north west) a lot of young professionals and first time buyers seem to be choosing roundhay and there was a noticeable influx of people in the 18-30 age range. This May account for some of the resilience of the labour vote as this age group tends to vote labour or liberal…

    Not sure if the census/ official age stats bare this out but that was the feeling you got living there

  18. Labour Hold. 7,000 majority.

  19. Fabian Hamilton has resigned as a shadow Europe Minster. He has stated he abstained from the vote of no confidence but after the treatment of Ruth Smeeth last week he has decided he can no long serve.
    His resignation takes the number of resignations from labour’s front bench to 65

  20. So, anyone think the Tories might have a shot at reclaiming this seat after 25 years? It’s a highly educated, high-income constituency, but also multicultural and strongly Remain.

  21. Fabian will be nervous in the early hours of June 9th…just about hanging on

  22. Tories must think is is a perfectly possible gain because the Prime Minster is speaking here this evening.

  23. And everywhere the PM visits is somewhere the Torries are aiming to gain.

  24. Not a chance in hell until Hamilton steps down. He’s managed to make himself very popular with a lot of the different ethnic groups in this seat and it’s changed a lot demographically over the years. I grew up in this seat and can vouch for the changes that have taken place.

  25. BM11

    According to the article just posted on the Guardian website, May is actually speaking in Harehills, which adjoins Leeds North East but is in Leeds East.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/27/theresa-may-to-lay-bare-ambition-to-capture-labour-heartlands

    It does seem an extraordinary choice (though presumably a side trip to North East could be included). Given the sharp fall in Conservative support in Roundhay in the last decade, even North East seems ambitious.

  26. Where is the PM speaking exactly?

  27. Think you beat me to it by seconds there! Harehills is an interesting choice…

  28. Matthew,

    I doubt if us mere voters (as opposed to the party faithful or the media) could be trusted with such information!

  29. And FYI some of Harehills – the part near Oakwood – comes under Roundhay ward, in Leeds NE. Gipton and Harehills ward only contains about half to two-thirds of what us Leeds folk would call Harehills.

  30. Unlikely to change hands, not as demographically susceptible as other seats with similar Labour majorities. Still, Jeremy Corbyn was speaking in Harlow today, and if he wins that seat we’re probably be heading for a Labour majority…

  31. I have never been to Leeds but saw it was Harehills so i googled that and it said Leeds North East. Leeds east itself is probably safe enough. Would need a 7.5 swing of Labour voters direct to Tories if every single UKIP vote went to the Tories.

  32. I can’t envisage any new gains for the Tories in Leeds district. Their best shot would be NE and even that’s clutching at straws.

  33. Matthew,

    Noted. My working assumption – based on the Guardian article I posted the link to – was they got it right.

    If not, blame them, not me. 🙂

  34. Sorry if I came across a bit of a blunt smartarse there – certainly not my intention!

  35. Its OK ; we all drop clangers on here occasionally. (see my predictions re 2015!!!).

    Heaven forbid however that the Guardian should pedal FAKE NEWS !!! That’s the Mail’s job.

  36. Right – just for the record, Mrs May’s appearance last night was at the Shine centre on Harehills Road, which is indeed in Leeds East constituency (Gipton and Harehills ward).

    But the good news for anyone concerned that Mrs May might have been confronted by the tough realities of a multi ethnic, inner city ward is that it was a “by invite” event only. There’s hardly a single non-white face to be seen in the pictures of the event. In other words, just another phoney “meet the people” event which so disfigures our modern politics and is designed to keep our “snow flake” political leaders safe from any possible criticism.

    I wonder whose expense return it will end up on?

  37. I think this seat is Hamilton’s for as long as he wants to be honest.

    Wouldn’t surprise me to see him get a majority fairly close to what he currently has.

    Some of the Corbyn factor will resonate with the young… and those who don’t like him might stick with him.

    I’ll see 5000 for Fabian. Nice guy also.

  38. I’d imagine a similar result to 2010 here this time.

  39. I think if the Lib Dems campaigned hard in this very Remainy seat they could get up to 15% and Fabian Hamilton might be in trouble. However with Leeds NW next door that is improbable. I do expect the Lib Dem vote to go up to 10% or so making the majority considerably smaller than now..

    I also know Fabian Hamilton from his days on Leeds City Council. If he survives this election he will surely be one of the last survivors of the Labour MPs who beat the Tories in the 1997 Blair landslide?

  40. ”If he survives this election he will surely be one of the last survivors of the Labour MPs who beat the Tories in the 1997 Blair landslide?”

    John McDonnell (surprising to think now) will be another one.

  41. Andrew 111,

    The correct answer to your question must be Barry Gardiner (Brent North).

  42. Seems that the “workers” at the event here yesterday were all Conservative Party members: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/28/theresa-may-accused-of-hiding-from-public-at-activist-filled-event-leeds

    In the interests of balance, a few days ago the BBC interviewed a “community nurse” who turned out to be a hardcore Labour activist, so it seems both sides are at it:
    https://order-order.com/2017/04/27/bbcs-community-nurse-is-prolific-corbynista-campaigner/

  43. Seems that the “workers” at the event here yesterday were all Conservative Party members: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/28/theresa-may-accused-of-hiding-from-public-at-activist-filled-event-leeds

  44. In the interests of balance, a few days ago the BBC interviewed a “community nurse” who turned out to be a hardcore Labour activist, so it seems both sides are at it:
    https://order-order.com/2017/04/27/bbcs-community-nurse-is-prolific-corbynista-campaigner/

  45. Hamilton is a decent fit for the seat I reckon.

    In a way that a (for example) Rachel Maskell wouldn’t be.

  46. Yes, it’s crazy to think that in 1983 only 2 out of the 5 Leeds constituencies were held by Labour, and now the Tories have probably lost both Leeds NW and Leeds NE forever, and have no chance of gaining the others.

    They still do well in Pudsey etc though.

  47. Conservatives have selected Cllr Ryan Stephenson as their candidate for GE 2017.

  48. I live in this seat, and whilst there are undoubtedly nice areas where the Tories likely score well, these are outweighed by a number of areas where Labour are and remain reasonably strong. Labour will hold this comfortably I think, particularly with the polls starting to narrow.

  49. Perhaps worth pointing out that Roundhay has the highest net weekly income in the Leeds district. Also has the highest percent of people qualified to degree level.

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