Lancashire West

2015 Result:
Conservative: 16114 (32.4%)
Labour: 24474 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 1298 (2.6%)
Green: 1582 (3.2%)
UKIP: 6058 (12.2%)
Others: 150 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8360 (16.8%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Lancashire. The southern part of the West Lancashire council area.

Main population centres: Ormskirk, Skelmersdale, Burscough, Upholland, Aughton, Scarisbrick.

Profile: The south-western corner of Lancashire, between Southport and Wigan. The seat consists of the market town of Ormskirk and its rural hinterland alongside the less affluent Skelmersdale, once a coal mining town, but transformed by its 1960s designation as a newtown to house the overspill population from Merseyside. The seat includes Edge Hill University based in Ormskirk.

Politics: A classic marginal where the rural parts of the seat tend to vote Conservative, but are outweighed by the more Labour voting towns. In this case Skelmersdale is extremely strongly Labour and while the seat was held by the Conservatives in the 1980s Labour managed to hold it with a 9% majority even in the relatively poor election of 2010, suggesting that the seat is now one the Conservatives could only challenge for in an extremely good year.


Current MP
ROSIE COOPER (Labour) Born 1950, Liverpool. Educated at Bellerive Convent Grammar School and Liverpool University. Former corporate manager for Littlewoods. Liverpool councillor 1973-2000. Contested Liverpool Garston for the Liberals in 1983, Knowlsey North by-election for the Liberals in 1986, Knowsley North for the Liberals in 1987 and Liverpool Broad Green in 1992 as a Liberal Democrat. First elected as MP for West Lancashire in 2005.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17540 (36%)
Lab: 21883 (45%)
LDem: 6573 (14%)
UKIP: 1775 (4%)
Oth: 702 (1%)
MAJ: 4343 (9%)
2005
Con: 14662 (34%)
Lab: 20746 (48%)
LDem: 6059 (14%)
UKIP: 871 (2%)
Oth: 817 (2%)
MAJ: 6084 (14%)
2001
Con: 13761 (32%)
Lab: 23404 (54%)
LDem: 4966 (12%)
Oth: 840 (2%)
MAJ: 9643 (22%)
1997
Con: 15903 (29%)
Lab: 33022 (60%)
LDem: 3938 (7%)
Oth: 841 (2%)
MAJ: 17119 (31%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
PAUL GREENALL (Conservative)
ROSIE COOPER (Labour) See above.
DANIEL LEWIS (Liberal Democrat)
JACK SEN (UKIP)
BEN BASSON (Green)
DAVID BRAID (War Veteran Pro-Traditional Family)
Links
Comments - 127 Responses on “Lancashire West”
  1. Disappointment for both the Tories and Labour as the former lost Derby ward, but with Labour beaten into second place by Our West Lancashire, as happened last year in that ward. OWL 705, Lab 596, C 362. This ward is the SE part of Ormskirk & includes a campus of Edge Hill University.

  2. Ah yes, OWL is the ex Tory PPC and a few other ex Tories.

    Derby is usually a safe Tory ward.

    I doubt many students are still around this time of year.

  3. Lancs
    “Derby is usually a safe Tory ward”

    I wouldn’t call it safe anymore, they lost it in 2015 to Lab, in 2016 to OWL and now they’ve lost their last councillor in a by-election to OWL Ormskirk has changed a lot in the past few decades and if trends continue in Aughton Park where Lab are gaining on the Cons, the Tories could well have no councillors in Ormskirk for the first time ever come 2020.

  4. Are you an OWL Lancs?

  5. I can think of far more appropriate names for Lancs Observer.

  6. lol

  7. A constituent of hers has pleaded guilty to a plot to kill Rosie Cooper MP.

    The 23-year-old from Skelmersdale changed his plea on the first day of the Trial, today.

    The other men – from Bootle, Prescot, St Helens and two from Warrington – deny all charges.

  8. Plot to Kill (this MP), a documentary is on Ch4+1 next.

    Esp for those who didn’t know what all were referring to at today’s PMQs.

    I saw at first hand the extreme security measures which had to be put in place re Rosie Cooper MP.

    No doubt it’ll amuse some on here, but I myself received threats in writing (ie by post not just email) from the far Right/national socialists. Those convicted and sentenced today were all based in and around Merseyside [none were from Liverpool but most had slight Scouse accents, as you will hear in the docu].

  9. “No doubt it’ll amuse some on here…”

    What’s that supposed to mean? No, that’s absolutely disgusting, nobody deserves this kind of treatment and I hope you feel safer now that these people are being jailed.

  10. ‘No, that’s absolutely disgusting, nobody deserves this kind of treatment ‘

    Absolutely disgusting – but whilst I can understand National Socialists targeting a left-winger like Rosie Cooper, their reasons for doing the same to someone like Lancs Observer are somewhat less obvious

    Shows you the mentality of such people – one which far right and phenomenally untalented UKIP leader Gerard Batten is tapping into

  11. Tim J – Rosie has never been regarded as ‘a leftwinger’ by anyone.

    Not just because she was a Liberal and then LibDem Cllr, Lord Mayor and PPC for 28 years, but because of her voting record. She opposed Same Sex Marriage and adoption and voted with the Govt to leave the EU. She fought leftwingers for 3 decades in her home city.

    PT – just read some of Tristan’s comments and you’ll see what I meant.

  12. In my round up of North West Independents, I neglected to mention the Skelmersdale Independent Party, who want to split from West Lancs and have their own council.

    They remind me of the Southport Party, although are clearly a working class version, more in the way 1st4Kirkby were. These new parties are often successful but have trouble maintaining success. I recall the FRAGOFF Ind lost in Sefton after one term.

  13. This was a pretty good labour performance here.

  14. Yes, Rosie was one of the dozen who voted for the Leave deal a few times.

    Although very Catholic seats were equally as good as plurality Muslim seats for Labour.

    I haven’t yet seen a full demographic breakdown, although the paper review showed that 48% of C2s voted Cons nationally.

  15. Merseyside effect – why Weaver vale was held and Southport even with boundary changes will be a must win seat for Labour in the future.

  16. No, under the boundary changes it becomes a safe Tory seat (IIRC 3 solid Tory wards from W Lancs are to be added – not the original Formby proposal).

    AFAIK it’d have created a majority of 8k+ (ie +5k) even before the increased Cons % and vote last week. So now it’d be notionally almost 10k.

    But I agree with you to an extent here and re Wirral etc but more so in Sefton C (where most Liverpudlians move to out of the surrounding dozen seats). Warrington S was regained and Weaver Vale was only within 100 votes.

  17. I expect Boris to re-run the boundary review based on 650 MPs and the former more tolerant seat size guidelines. Given that a lot of his new northern seats are quite undersized this must have reduced the anti-Tory bias in the boundaries.

  18. A lot of grassroots tories seem to want it but I don’t think Boris will – the new red wall seats are not greatly affected bar greater Manchester and North Wales.

  19. Funnily enough it might actually work out quite well for us here in Sheffield. Hallam would take in parts of Central would should give Labour a bigger majority of the Lib Dems than currently. South East will take in bits of Burngreave which will counteract Beighton and Mosborough trending away from us.

    Brightside will lose Hillsborough but gain Ecclesfield which is probably not the best deal but could be worse. Penistone is split into two West goes to Colne Valley and East joins Stockbridge in Barnsley West. All in all we have 4 Labour (unchanged) Tories 0 (-1)

  20. Hallam was IMO the absolute worst result for the Lib Dems, arguably even worse than Swinson’s seat. A Lib Dem stronghold full of high earners reinforced by 2 years of Jared O’Mara’s uselessness. How on God’s earth did they lose? If the new MP keeps their head down they are going to be in for a long time I think.

  21. There was a Big student turnout in the seat.

  22. Hallam was before the GE easily the least deprived English Labour seat won in GE2017. It was 526 out of 534.
    https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7327

  23. An overlooked candidate for worst Lib Dem result (on a night with a lot of them): Ceredigion. Fell from just 104 votes from Plaid, with high hopes of taking the seat, to a miserable third place, behind the Tories, and less than half of the winning vote share.

  24. Tories now hold 7 of the top 45 most deprived seats as oppose to zero before the election

    3 Blackpool South
    21 Walsall North
    26 Birmingham, Northfield
    34 Great Grimsby
    35 Burnley
    41 West Bromwich West
    44 Stoke Central

  25. They won Wallsal North in 2017.
    I didn’t realise Northfield was that deprived.

  26. “They won Wallsal North in 2017. I didn’t realise Northfield was that deprived.”

    Oh yeah missed that one!

  27. Northfield is/was dominated by the defunct Rover works at Longbridge….that must surely be a factor

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