Labour Target Seats

These are the hundred and twenty five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Labour party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Labour in practice, or that they are the seats the Labour party will actually be targetting at the next general election. The Labour party won 232 seats at the last general election, so would need to win another ninety-four seats to secure an overall majority in the House of Commons.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
10. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
11. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
12. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
13. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
14. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
15. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
16. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
17. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
18. Sheffield, Hallam Majority 2353 (4.2%)
19. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
20. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
21. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
22. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
23. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
24. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
25. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
26. East Renfrewshire Majority 3718 (6.6%)
27. Leeds North West Majority 2907 (6.7%)
28. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
29. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
30. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
31. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
32. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
33. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
34. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
35. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
36. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
37. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
38. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
39. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
40. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
41. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
42. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
43. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
44. Edinburgh North & Leith Majority 5597 (9.6%)
45. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
46. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
47. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
48. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
49. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
50. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
51. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
52. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
53. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
54. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
55. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
56. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
57. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
58. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
59. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
60. East Lothian Majority 6803 (11.5%)
61. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
62. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)*
63. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
64. Paisley & Renfrewshire South Majority 5684 (12.3%)
65. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
66. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
67. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
68. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
69. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
70. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
71. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
72. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
73. Arfon Majority 3668 (13.6%)
74. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
75. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
76. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
77. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Majority 5599 (14.2%)
78. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)*
79. Brighton, Pavilion Majority 7967 (14.5%)
80. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
81. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
82. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
83. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
84. Aberdeen South Majority 7230 (14.8%)
85. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
86. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
87. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)*
88. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
89. Edinburgh South West Majority 8135 (15.8%)
90. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
91. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
92. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)*
93. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
94. Rutherglen & Hamilton West Majority 9975 (17.4%)
95. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
96. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
97. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
98. Ochil & South Perthshire Majority 10168 (17.6%)
99. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
100. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
101. Paisley & Renfrewshire North Majority 9076 (18%)
102. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)*
103. Lanark & Hamilton East Majority 10100 (18.3%)
104. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
105. Dunfermline & West Fife Majority 10352 (18.6%)
106. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
107. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
108. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Majority 9974 (18.8%)
109. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
110. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
111. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
112. Edinburgh East Majority 9106 (19.3%)
113. Glasgow Central Majority 7662 (19.4%)
114. Airdrie & Shotts Majority 8779 (19.8%)
115. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)*
116. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
117. Stirling Majority 10480 (20.1%)
118. Midlothian Majority 9859 (20.4%)
119. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
120. Linlithgow & Falkirk East Majority 12934 (21%)
121. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
122. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
123. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
124. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Majority 11265 (21.5%)
125. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
Comments - 3,588 Responses on “Labour Target seats”
  1. Yes turning their guns on their own voters seemed bizarre but it seemed to have a greater impact on the families of retired Tory voters who didnt want to inherit a loss on their family home.

    I cant imagine my gf would be in the least bit interested in a very british coup

  2. ‘Churchill was probably more right wing in belief than Theresa May.’

    That’s the most ludicrous statement I’ve ever read

    Compared to May, Churchill is Hard Left

  3. If any of you seriously think that

    “the powers that be will move heaven and earth to keep Corbyn out of No 10, following the script of A Very British Coup if it comes down to it”

    then quite honestly, the possibility of a Corbyn victory is the least of your worries. What you are actually saying is that you regard UK democracy as a fiction, that we are only allowed to play with our toys for as long as we do what the autocrats want, and that they are prepared at any time to create a dictatorship if they so decide.

    If you don’t see the problem with that, you need to stop and think a bit harder.

  4. May is obviously a fascist in disguise!

  5. “What you are actually saying is that you regard UK democracy as a fiction, that we are only allowed to play with our toys for as long as we do what the autocrats want, and that they are prepared at any time to create a dictatorship if they so decide.”

    Jeez there’s a lot of hyperbole in there mate.

    Why would keeping Jezza out of No 10 mean we turn into a dictatorship? Surely it would simply mean putting in an alternative Labour politician, as I made clear in my post.

    I think it’s you who needs to think a bit harder if you think the security services won’t be alarmed about a hard-left CND republican with a 40 year history of opposing NATO and supporting terrorist insurgencies becoming Prime Minister

  6. nobody who was born after 1950 has seen a hard left party so close to power, frankly. corbyn came into the house of commons in 1983 on a platform and manifesto that he still clearly believes in even now.

    the only think he has had to compromise on since that time is nuclear weapons and even that he would probably give up, if he knew before the election how popular other parts of his programme appear to be.

  7. Exactly. If he’s elected, Corbyn is going to be Britain’s left wing Trump, totally without modern precedent. He’ll hit the buffers with his own party quite early on.

  8. I hope to never read this forum if I was the leader of the opposition

  9. Let’s be fair – the manifesto was hardly Das Kapital. It was actually a pretty good compromise that most of the PLP could get behind.

    Sure, Jeremy’s natural instincts are a fair step to the left of what was in the manifesto. But he wouldn’t be able to get those more radical ideas through parliament, even if he was elected on a thumping majority.

  10. By that argument, I presume you would vote for Hitler if he stood on a moderate manifesto, safe in the knowledge that he wouldn’t be able to get his old extreme ideas through parliament? šŸ™‚

  11. All credit to the man. I would never have thought his stuff would be so resonant and rouse the enthusiasm of voters, but that’s what democracy is about. We tories can’t complain if he knows how to rouse his base and give them belief and motivation and we don’t. We have to raise our game.

    Democracy is a competitive process, that’s why dud leaders have to go. Corbyn would surely have been expected to go if there had been the expected wipeout, so all credit to him for gaining seats for labour in a general election for the first time in 20 years.

  12. He has shown that old fashioned campaigning still works

  13. HH,

    you’re right. there ‘s also the old story they used to say that mass membership was dead and activists didn’t matter. corbyn and momentum have overturned that particular myth.

  14. PC – I’m not sure there’s any evidence of that though.

    In fact Labour people were complaining to me only last week that most of the Momentum lot don’t ever turn up to leaflet or canvass. I realise they are a force on-line and like attending a protest or rally though.

    Plus in both 2010 and 2015, Labour famously beat the Tories 3:1 in terms of activists on the ground and doors knocked.

  15. In Derby North momentum had two campaign days on saturdays over three weeks. The first drew 50 people the second about 100. They had to do their briefing in the car park because not everyone could fit in Unite’s office.

  16. “In fact Labour people were complaining to me only last week that most of the Momentum lot donā€™t ever turn up to leaflet or canvass.”

    Maybe it’s better that way though. I’m sure the more mild-mannered folk do a better job on the doorstep than the “Tory scum!” brigade.

  17. Sadly there has been a bit of that

  18. Lancs
    I’m afraid your betraying your own allegiances there, I’m ex Momentum so don’t think I have any love for them and prior to the campaign I’d have agreed with you but over the past few weeks they have really stepped up. Most of the new Lab MP’s (some of whom are definite Blairites) have openly thanked the campaign work Momentum did, the Momentum “Find my Marginal” and “Momentum Carpool” Apps where downloaded thousands of times and were incredibly useful, Liverpool Momentum even campaigned heavily for Alison McGovern in Wirral South (chair of Progress) and she has since begrudgingly thanked them for their work. Finally I was only speaking to Pepps on here a few weeks back about how local Momentum groups were campaigning in Crewe and Weaver Vale with little to no help from the national party, as it is we won both seats so I think it has to be said we probably owe our victories there to Momentum, I imagine the story was similar in most every seat Lab gained, HQ fighting a defensive campaign and leaving it to the (presumed deluded) Momentum campaigners to go after marginals.

  19. On the debate about increased youth vote, some polling :
    YouGov also gives figures for the turnout among younger voters, finding that about 58%

    Ipsos Mori estimatedĀ that turnout for 18 to 24 year olds was 58% turnout would be a considerable increase on estimated 43% in GE 2015.

    Yougov estimated that among 18- 29 yr olds about 63% for Labour and 22% for the Conservatives, having polled more than 50,000 people online.

    The figure it gaveĀ in its poll after the 2015 election was that 36% of 18 to 29 year olds had voted Labour with 32% voting Conservative – if correct that is a huge swing among young voters.

    Lord Ashcroft’s much smaller exit pollĀ puts support for Labour among young people even higher, with 67% of 18 to 24 year olds voting Labour and 18% voting Conservative.

  20. Huh.

    58% turnout is really still not that high, considering it was reportedy 64% in the EUref (after an initial figure of 36% was debunked).

    I am honestly surprised by that figure, I thought youth turnout would be in the 65-70 range.

  21. H. Hemmelig, I respect you as (over a long period) one of the most interesting posters on here, but your post that I noted did in fact say ” following the script of A Very British Coup if it comes down to it”.

    Key plot points include: “the aristocratic Sir Percy Browne, Head of MI5, whose ancestors “unto the Middle Ages” have exercised subtle power behind the scenes”, an attempt to blackmail the PM out of office using forged documents, and, on TV, in the closing credits, the very clear implication that a military coup has been launched against the elected government, because “the powers that be” (to quote you again) cannot accept a democratic outcome they don’t approve of.

    In what way did my earlier comment therefore include hyperbole? I was quoting both you, and the TV drama you referred to. A military coup against an elected PM would indeed be a dictatorship.

    If any of you think that’s a possible outcome, you do indeed think that democracy is a sham.

  22. 64% in the EU referendum was 64% of all registered voters.

    These turnout estimates are turnout estimates of all people, rather than just registered voters. That is the difference, I think.

  23. “I presume you would vote for Hitler if he stood on a moderate manifesto”

    Isn’t there also an old internet meme that the first person to draw a parallel to Hitler is admitting that they have lost the argument?

  24. If so then Trump’s opponents have been losing badly for a long time

  25. ‘Isnā€™t there also an old internet meme that the first person to draw a parallel to Hitler is admitting that they have lost the argument?’

    Possibly – though if you’re taking life lessons from internet memes then you’ve probably lost more than just the argument..

  26. It’s called Godwin’s Law:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law

  27. Labour increase by 19% in a council by-election on Gloucestershire:

    Winterbourne (South Gloucestershire) result:
    CON: 47.9% (+1.6)
    LAB: 33.8% (+18.6)
    LDEM: 18.3% (-3.8)

    Conservative HOLD. No UKIP (as prev).

  28. Are Labour expecting a 2018 GE?

    THIS is by London List. 75 PPCS will be selected by Christmas.

    How many of these are Left / Momentum / JC dominated?

    LL:
    “This is theĀ leaked listĀ of 75 marginal seats in which Labour expects
    to carry out selections before the end of the year.

    Aberconway

    Blackpool North
    Bolton West
    Broxtowe
    Bournemouth East

    Calder Valley
    Camborne and Redruth
    Carlisle
    Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
    Chingford and Woodford Green
    Chipping Barnet
    Cities of London and Westminster
    Clwyd West
    Colchester
    Copeland
    Corby
    Crawley

    Derbyshire North East
    Dover

    Erewash

    Filton and Bradley Stoke
    Finchley and Folders Green

    Gloucester

    Halesowen
    Harlow
    Harrow East
    Hastings and Rye
    Hendon

    Kingswood

    Loughborough

    Mansfield
    Middlesborough South and Cleveland East
    Milton Keynes North
    Milton Keynes South
    Morecambe and Lunesdale
    Morley and Outwood

    Northampton North
    Northampton South
    Norwich North
    Nuneaton

    Pendle
    Plymouth Moor View
    Preselli
    Pudsey
    Putney

    Reading West
    Ribble South
    Rochford and Southend East
    Rossendale and Darwen
    Redditch
    Rugby
    Rushcliffe

    Scarborough and Whitby
    Sherwood
    Shipley
    Shrewsbury and Atcham
    Southampton Itchen
    Southport
    Stafford
    Stevenage
    Stoke South
    Swindon South

    Telford
    Thurrock
    Truro and Falmouth

    Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    Vale of Glamorgan

    Walsall North
    Watford
    Welwyn Hatfield
    Wimbeldon
    Worcester
    Worthing East and Shoreham
    Wycombe
    York Outer…”

  29. Interestingly LL has no word on Scottish selections. I get the point that, in a sense, targetting SNP seats is not going to remove the Conservatives from office, but on the other hand Jeremy Corbyn did do a big tour of Scotland just last month, so it seems like they’re taking Scotland very seriously.

  30. One other important fact to note – most of the selections will be made from all-women shortlists as Labour aims for a 50/50 gender balance in the PLP.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/09/more-half-labours-target-candidates-be-women

  31. Yes AWS in Harrow East must be infuriating for the 2017 candidate who did very. Lost by only 1700 votes and must have expected to be given another go at it.

    Interesting that nearby marginals Hendon and Finchley & GG are open selections.

  32. Watford and Stevenage won’t be. Hatfield Im not so sure about

  33. Would a prospective male candidate have any grounds to make a legal challenge against the imposition of an AWS?

    Or is it a case of the party being entitled to have its own rules, and anyone challenging it would be seen as trouble and not worth selecting anyway?

    It’s a very regressive stance, indicating that women cannot be selected in merit against men. Which frankly is nonsense.

  34. I wonder what the gender balance of the PLP would be without AWSes. I’d guess about 30 to 35% female – about halfway between the Tories and the post-AWS Labour Party.

  35. Probably about right.

    I don’t think I could be part of a constituency party though that was bound to limiting itself to 50% of the potential candidates, just to satisfy some tick box bureaucrat and a quota.

    The best candidate should be selected… really, the Tories ought to be trying to make hay out of it.

  36. “The Tories ought to be trying to make hay out of it.”

    No, they shouldn’t. This is an issue that only political nerds care about.

  37. This really isn’t the place for arguing about the merits of AWS, which is quite an old argument now as they have been in place for more than 20 years.

    It also isn’t something the Tories can credibly criticise, as they have in many seats had a more watered down version of the same policy since 2005.

    I do believe that the move away from selecting on merit in both main parties has been one of the factors which has reduced the quality of MPs over the past 30 years, though there are many others.

  38. Here’s a useful link to Labour’s target seats post-2017.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

    It’s very noticeable just how many more marginals there are now – for example 37 target seats with majorities under 2,000 compared to just 17 such seats after the 2015 GE.

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