Labour Target Seats

These are the hundred and twenty five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Labour party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Labour in practice, or that they are the seats the Labour party will actually be targetting at the next general election. The Labour party won 232 seats at the last general election, so would need to win another ninety-four seats to secure an overall majority in the House of Commons.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
10. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
11. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
12. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
13. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
14. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
15. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
16. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
17. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
18. Sheffield, Hallam Majority 2353 (4.2%)
19. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
20. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
21. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
22. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
23. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
24. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
25. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
26. East Renfrewshire Majority 3718 (6.6%)
27. Leeds North West Majority 2907 (6.7%)
28. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
29. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
30. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
31. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
32. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
33. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
34. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
35. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
36. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
37. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
38. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
39. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
40. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
41. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
42. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
43. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
44. Edinburgh North & Leith Majority 5597 (9.6%)
45. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
46. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
47. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
48. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
49. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
50. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
51. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
52. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
53. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
54. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
55. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
56. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
57. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
58. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
59. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
60. East Lothian Majority 6803 (11.5%)
61. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
62. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)*
63. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
64. Paisley & Renfrewshire South Majority 5684 (12.3%)
65. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
66. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
67. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
68. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
69. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
70. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
71. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
72. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
73. Arfon Majority 3668 (13.6%)
74. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
75. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
76. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
77. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Majority 5599 (14.2%)
78. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)*
79. Brighton, Pavilion Majority 7967 (14.5%)
80. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
81. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
82. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
83. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
84. Aberdeen South Majority 7230 (14.8%)
85. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
86. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
87. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)*
88. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
89. Edinburgh South West Majority 8135 (15.8%)
90. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
91. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
92. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)*
93. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
94. Rutherglen & Hamilton West Majority 9975 (17.4%)
95. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
96. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
97. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
98. Ochil & South Perthshire Majority 10168 (17.6%)
99. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
100. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
101. Paisley & Renfrewshire North Majority 9076 (18%)
102. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)*
103. Lanark & Hamilton East Majority 10100 (18.3%)
104. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
105. Dunfermline & West Fife Majority 10352 (18.6%)
106. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
107. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
108. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Majority 9974 (18.8%)
109. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
110. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
111. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
112. Edinburgh East Majority 9106 (19.3%)
113. Glasgow Central Majority 7662 (19.4%)
114. Airdrie & Shotts Majority 8779 (19.8%)
115. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)*
116. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
117. Stirling Majority 10480 (20.1%)
118. Midlothian Majority 9859 (20.4%)
119. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
120. Linlithgow & Falkirk East Majority 12934 (21%)
121. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
122. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
123. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
124. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Majority 11265 (21.5%)
125. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
Comments - 3,595 Responses on “Labour Target seats”
  1. It’s possible that Labour can gain Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton and Brighton Kemptown against the trend but the Tories are still comfortably above 40% before we factor in polling error overstating Labour and also that many Tory postal votes have been cast. Also Corbyn stumbled over trident last night.

    Iwould be truly staggered if there ends up being a hung parliament as I’m convinced the Tories are going to gain at least 20-30 seats from Labour and a handful from the SNP and I don’t see how Labour offsets that in the other direction. There would have to be numerous shock Labour gains of seats with a ~5K majority like e.g. High Peak and Labour truly running the table in London winning Enfield Southgate, Battersea etc.

    I am therefore expecting Thursday’s exit poll to show a Tory majority of 90.

  2. Reluctantly I have to agree with A BROWN. If you ignore the somewhat iffy yougov recents, then CON are heading for a comfortable win. My current guess is CON 378 – 382. I’m assuming a big shy Tory factor and a resurgence in the polls on Tues /Weds and CON GAINS in marginals where soft Labour GE2015 will go over to Tories in small but significant numbers.

  3. If past precedent is anything to go by then the sight of a lunatic in danger of entering downing street will drive people to the polls to thwart it.

  4. You guys do realise that polling companies have changed their methodology to take the ‘shy Tory’ effect into account, right? It seems like everyone is going under the assumption that Labour are being overstated, but Labour’s polling numbers are already knocked back by 1-3 percentage points for the very reasons you provide.

    I don’t think shy Tories will make much difference this time.

  5. They may be accounting for in a national sense but it’ll be greater in English specific marginals or close races enough to see a bigger swing CON>LAB in those 50-60 seats. This will result in CON will get more seats than if you would assume by doing a rather flat extrapolation of the polls across England.

  6. I’m not sure Cheesus is right. The difference btwn the raw and published figures is down to demographic weighting and turnout filtering. The general view is that there isn’t compelling evidence for a ‘shy Tory’ factor and so this isn’t accounted for.

    Some forecasts, e.g. the Hanretty and Fisher forecasts, do account for historic polling error in the Cons favour.

  7. The polls methodology changed to address lazy labour rather than shy tories since in 2015 they accounted for 2.9 million labour voters who never came out.

  8. ‘Shy’ X (Tory, Leave, UKIP, Trump, Unionist, Labour, anything) is I believe perfectly dealt with via non-human interviewing methods.
    Differential turnout was previously pro-Tory, but that has been varyingly compensated for, to an extent that may or may not be accurate in either direction.
    Last-minute swing is typically regarded as usually counting in favour of a status quo: could be sitting government or sitting MP, the latter not really helping Theresa’s large majority objective.

  9. CON: 41.5% (-2)
    LAB: 40.4% (+3)
    LD 6%
    UKIP 3%
    (via @Survation / 02 – 03 Jun)

    Based on this: Electoral calculus gives
    Conservative majority 4. CON 327 SEATS

  10. Interesting listing of Labour targets posted by AJS on Google docs here :-

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0

    BR

  11. I would like to apologise to people like Rivers I was completely wrong (humility I think is one of the highest virtues :P)though I think a lot was down to May’s many weaknesses as opposed to Corbyn’s strength with the youth that I did not foresee… (though it appears the Tories have done well in vote share but 2 party politics has screwed them).

    I hope you all will continue to consider my posts on this forum which I will try to keep purely to boundaries/psephology. I’ve well and truly learnt my lesson and I hope posters on this forum will accept my apology and still consider me a serious poster as I enjoy posting here :).

    Many thanks,

    Pepps 😉

  12. Peppermint Tea- the vast majority of us were wrong including a lot of Labour-leaning contributors!

  13. Either theLabour or the LibDems need to get one more seat than is currently forecast to make sure that the Tories and DUP combned do not get an overall majority.

  14. Pepps
    Don’t beat yourself up, at the end of the day I called this election wrong too!!! Yes I may have been one of the very few here who thought Corbyn could defy expectations but come the eve of polling I didn’t really think it would happen.

    Also your humility and acceptance that you made a mistake demonstrates that your probably not going to make the same mistake again, I ended up with egg on my face after 2015 and I’ve been very wary of making predictions ever since.

    The two things that I hope are gleamed from this election though (by everyone) is that people really need to stop prematurely writing political obituaries and they also need to learn that the MSM (for the most part) are about as hopeless as UKIP’s future electoral prospects.

  15. Labour gains and their new majorities

    Gower (7.2%)
    Derby North (4.1%)
    Croydon Central (9.9%)
    Vale of Clwyd (6.1%)
    Bury North (9.1%)
    Plymouth Sutton and Davenport (13.5%)
    Brighton Kemptown (20%)
    Weaver Vale (7.8%)
    Bedford (1.6%)
    Lincoln (3.2%)
    Peterborough (1.3%)
    Cardiff North (8%)
    Sheffield Hallam (3.8%)
    Warrington South (4.1%)
    Keighley (0.5%)
    Leeds North West (9.1%)
    Crewe and Nantwich (0.1%)
    Ipswich (1.6%)
    Stroud (1.1%)
    Colne Valley (1.7%)
    Bristol North West (8.9%)
    High Peak (4.3%)
    Stockton South (1.7%)
    Enfield Southgate (9%)
    East Lothian (5.5%)
    Portsmouth South (3.4%)
    Reading East (4.7%)
    Warwick and Leamington (2.2%)
    Battarsea (4.4%)
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West (0.5%)
    Canterbury (0.3%)
    Kirkaldy (0.6%)
    Midlothian (2%)
    Coatbridge etc (3.5%)
    Glasgow North East (0.7%)

  16. Thanks ANDREA.for that v useful list.

    PPT; RIVERs10…A week before polling day I too thought it would be a big CON win. But I looked at the polls very carefully and stood back and had a good look at the political situation. Momentum was clearly with Labour and timing means a lot. I also had a lot of faith in Survation who did v well in 2015. The London poll giving Lab 50% wa a big deal for me.

    I also saw a poll that suggested 54% of non voters in 2015 would go for LAB.- that was huge for me.

    Mostly for me there was clear evidence that the under 30s would actually turn out. The certain to vote 10/10 & 9/10 figures for <30y.o to which SURVATION attached a lot of weight and was something with which I agreed.

    At this same time, I also saw evidence that significantly fewer older people were saying that they would vote in this election.

    LAB probably benefitted from a dual campaign – concentrating on the candidate; not mentioning the leader; but benefitting from Corbyn's charisma nationally.

    For Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell to GAIN the likes of IPSWICH CANTERBURY KENSINGTON LINCOLN PETERBOROUGH was a great achievement.

    I would expect a lot more respect in the House of Commons for HM Opposition after this support from the British people.

  17. Apparently a swing of just 2% from Con to Lab in any future election would deliver Lab 30 additional Conservative seats making them easily the largest party, that’s a huge turnaround from 2015

  18. ”Apparently a swing of just 2% from Con to Lab in any future election would deliver Lab 30 additional Conservative seats making them easily the largest party, that’s a huge turnaround from 2015”

    My record of electoral predictions is rubbish but I fail to see how Labour doesn’t manage to win next time and possibly a majority (especially if they replace Corbyn with someone from the left with not as many personal negatives).

    However these are a few observations (I’m not going to call them predictions seen as my record is so bad) I will make:

    -Mayism is seen to have failed and her days as PM are numbered. In contrast ‘Cameroonism’ is seen to have succeeded so I suspect the next Tory leader and PM will be more in the Cameron mold than the May one.
    -Hard Brexit is also probably dead, I can’t see how they could push it through after running an election campaign on it and failing miserably. Plus the next leader of the Tories is probably going to be someone from the left of the party and the Anna Soubry’s, Nicky Morgan’s, Oliver Letwin’s, Ken Clarke’s, Heidi Allen’s etc. are likely to return to prominence.
    -Thus I believe that the next Labour government will likely be formed due to a huge backlash in leave areas and potentially a resurgent UKIP (Farage intends to return to active politics should hard Brexit fail to happen). For example I cannot possibly see how the Tories could hold Mansfield on a soft Brexit platform for example. Whilst on the other hand I think they’ll hold up better in remain areas where they crashed this time e.g. central London, Altrincham, York Outer etc.
    -Blairism is also dead and the next Labour government will obviously be of the left.
    -Thus I think their economic agenda (tax rises, public spending etc.) will likely go down fairly well in places where their results were on the weaker side this time e.g. Ashfield, Bolsover etc. and possibly also some areas where they did do well this time like Cornwall.
    -However on the flip side it will likely go down like a bucket of cold sick in places like Kensington and Battersea.
    -Therefore assuming Labour stays on the left and the Tories return to a more socially liberal stance after a ‘soft Brexit’ (both of which seem likely at present) many of the trends we saw at this election are likely to go sharply into reverse at some point in the future.
    -The political map is simply not going to become like the USA unless Labour returns to centrism (not going to happen) and the Tories carry on drifting further into social conservatism (not likely given their failure on a more socially conservative platform this time).

    Caveat: New parties and party splits may throw this up in the air.

  19. PPT: “…I fail to see how Labour doesn’t manage to win next time and possibly a majority”

    LABOUR are within 1,000 seats in 25 seats and 2,200 votes in 40 seats.

  20. PPT: “…I fail to see how Labour doesn’t manage to win next time and possibly a majority”

    LABOUR are within 1,000 seats in 25 seats and 2,200 votes in 40 seats.

  21. @ Andrea – You forgot one

    Kensington (0.05%)

    🙂

  22. Pepps
    Early days of course but I’m inclined to agree with all of that (at this stage) I’d make a few points though on future party leaders…

    “especially if they replace Corbyn with someone from the left with not as many personal negatives”

    I was personally banking on Keir Starmer but now I’m favouring Clive Lewis, the youth vote was critical here and Lab needs a maverick lefty character to emulate Corbyn’s success with that demographic (which I believe Clive can) and his improved charisma, pragmatism and military background will probably endear him better to those who were wary of Corbyn this time.

    “I suspect the next Tory leader and PM will be more in the Cameron mold than the May one”

    Who though? Rudd was obviously the favourite but with a majority of 300 that’s probably unlikely now. It would be unorthodox but if I was a Tory I’d either parachute Ruth Davidson into Westminster and get her to do it or take a punt on Heidi Allen.

  23. He was weakened by the sex text stories and his subsequent resignation from the cabinet, but I wonder if Stephen Crabb is still a contender. He made some comments on the BBC election programme that sounded to me like the comments of someone who would still like to be leader.

    The fact I’m mentioning him does reflect a dearth of obvious candidates on the left of the party. There is Amber Rudd, but I think she’s too Remain and in some ways too much like May to be a candidate in these circumstances.

    Of course, both Crabb and Rudd now have 300 majorities to defend, which may be a factor that counts against them.

    I suppose what is likely to happen is that as May struggles on, doomed to departure (whether of her own volition or not) at some point in the next year or two, some people we’re not thinking of at the moment will shine and put themselves in contention.

  24. Alex F

    If Labour won every seat that they are less than 3,000 behind (and 59 are in 2nd place) they would gain 60 seats and other things being equal (not losing any other seats, SF not attending) they would effectively have a majority government!!!

  25. Plop
    True but for me personally (and indeed this should be the case for all psephology anoraks here) the story shouldn’t really be the headline figures of this election. Yes May lost her majority but that came down to some very close losses, the big story was the overall swing to Lab in individual seats. So many Tory held marginals are now on a knife edge, so many Tory held safe seats are now marginals, so many Lab held marginals are now looking like safe seats and as for most of Labs old safe seats…well lets just say Liverpool Walton isn’t looking so lonely on the “stupidly huge majority” list anymore.

  26. The most accurate pollster Survation have just released a poll:

    Labour ahead by 5%.
    49% say PM should resign now.

    Little wonder the Tories will do anything – including forcing Theresa May to cling on – to avoid another election soon.

  27. Surprised it’s as low as 49%. Two thirds of Tory members think she should resign (ConHome survey). Her position is simply untenable and has been since Friday morning.

  28. ”Surprised it’s as low as 49%. Two thirds of Tory members think she should resign (ConHome survey). Her position is simply untenable and has been since Friday morning.”

    @Hemmelig

    It is untenable though I think there should be a cooling off period before she is removed so it doesn’t look even more shambolic than it already does. I’m with Heidi Allen, give her 6 months then find somebody new preferably a totally new face from the more liberal wing of the party (perhaps even Allen herself?).

  29. I cant imagine Hedi Allen winning the support of the majoiry of tory Mp’s and she have little chance with the members in a contested ballot.
    I heard someone say Priti Patel which seems totally bonkers as she would go down like a lead ballon in many of the seats the Torries and is also a poor media performer.
    Amber Rudd must be a non starter due to her seat- even a boundary review wouldn’t make it safe enough for my Party (Labour) not to target it like hell.

  30. Hemmelig-

    I suspect many Labour supporters want her to stay on. Like Corybn was apparently a gift to the Tories, May is now a gift to Labour.

  31. ”Like Corybn was apparently a gift to the Tories”

    He was though the Tories somehow managed to blow it. With a decent campaign and a leader who was interested in engaging with the public the Tories would have won a large majority even with increased youth turnout (which would have been what saved them from complete destruction).

    Instead they ran the worst campaign since Labour in 1983 (probably even worse than that) and May was totally useless. What was even worse is they structured their whole campaign around her and ignored all the issues that were actually strong for them like the economy and unemployment. I barely heard the economy mentioned at all in this wretched campaign.

  32. If Priti Patel wins we may as well all pack up and surrender this country to Google to host their cloud computing systems.

  33. Heidi Allen herself is too much of a loose cannon but I’m all for someone fresh at some point in the next two years, who isn’t tainted by either too prominent a role in the referendum or GE 2017. May might hope to stay on until the Brexit deal is conckuded, but that is looking difficult right now.

    Possibles that could be good: Tracey Crouch, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, Robert Halfon

  34. I like Halfon. Do you think he’s up to being PM?

  35. Not sure. In truth perhaps not. But he does have good reach across the party and, unlike Cameron and May, could be expected to actually try and deliver on the workers’ party rhetoric rather than saying one thing and doing another. Maybe he should be on the ticket as a possible Deputy PM for someone with stronger leadership credentials.

  36. Halfon could work and elsewhere Jonny Mercer has also been suggested, and I think he might be a good shout as well.

  37. Labour now apparently need a 1.6% swing to be the largest party, but in reality a 1% swing would give labour about 20 extra seats which would leave the Tories, even with DUP help, unable to control the House of Commons. Indeed had the Tories won 10 fewer seats, they would have been unable to govern. It was a damn close run thing. The Tories were lucky…

    I actually think Corbyn canbe PM now! Can t quite believe it!

  38. I think the Tories were unlucky actually. They would have been better off in opposition than this particular circle of hell.

  39. IMO the powers that be will move heaven and earth to keep Corbyn out of No 10, following the script of A Very British Coup if it comes down to it. On top of the very many of his policies, views and associations which are anathema to the establishment, he would also be the first openly republican Prime Minister. And perhaps he might not even want the job. There’s maybe a fair chance of another Labour figure taking the reins if they are in a position to form a government over the coming year.

  40. Imagine that – Corbyn quits on the threshold of No 10 and his successor fails to galvanise Momentum leading to Labour failing to win the next election…

  41. Probably a careerist fake Corbynista like Clive Lewis who would then gradually and pragmatically shaft Momentum in office.

  42. I look forward to being shafted. I did feel like i was watching the beginning of a very british coup on Thursday.

    Would any tories here go for the conservative workers party Halfon has proposed as the new labour esk branding.

  43. I don’t agree necessarily with a wholesale rebranding but I do think the party needs to strengthen its appeal with the working class given the loss of some of its more traditional supporters

  44. I wouldn’t go for the rebranding. The Tories once again went to war with their base, ie old people without giving anything to any other groups. It was insane. Their manifesto was terrible and it’s no accident that once this was launched, their vi in polls started to fall, while labour shot up.

    Half on is right that the party is in deep trouble.

  45. I agree with others that Halfon is half right. Renaming the party as the Workers Party is frankly ridiculous but much of what he says about the message is right. Having said that the results this time suggest the Cons got one of their best results ever with the working class despite the flaws in their attempts to appeal to them; the bigger problem is appealing to university graduates, which Halfon doesn’t address.

  46. They need to steal Corbyn’s clothes (not literally, after all they are not Savile Row).

    Corbyn’s manifesto is to the right of Attlee’s, but Churchill accepted most of it in 1951. Churchill was probably more right wing in belief than Theresa May.

  47. Corbyn s manifesto is relatively, compared to today’s political climate, more left wing. In absolute terms, Gladstone would be regarded as to the right of
    Thatcher. Relatively speaking, this is not true.

  48. I suspect that the Conservatives are now on a downward trend – these things go in cycles. The best thing that can happen for them from a long-term perspective is for them to lose the next election, whenever that is and then for something big to go belly up while Labour is in office. There will then be a generation that “remembers the 2020s” just as there is one that remembers the 1970s and is staunchly Conservative.

  49. Tories seats since 92, off the top of my head … 330, 165, 166, 198, 307, 330, 318….

  50. Watched A Very British Coup again with my girlfriend over the weekend. Couldn’t help noticing Paul Blomfield got more votes than Harry Perkins!

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