Labour Target Seats

These are the hundred and twenty five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Labour party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Labour in practice, or that they are the seats the Labour party will actually be targetting at the next general election. The Labour party won 232 seats at the last general election, so would need to win another ninety-four seats to secure an overall majority in the House of Commons.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
10. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
11. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
12. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
13. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
14. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
15. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
16. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
17. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
18. Sheffield, Hallam Majority 2353 (4.2%)
19. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
20. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
21. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
22. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
23. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
24. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
25. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
26. East Renfrewshire Majority 3718 (6.6%)
27. Leeds North West Majority 2907 (6.7%)
28. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
29. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
30. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
31. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
32. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
33. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
34. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
35. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
36. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
37. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
38. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
39. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
40. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
41. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
42. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
43. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
44. Edinburgh North & Leith Majority 5597 (9.6%)
45. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
46. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
47. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
48. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
49. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
50. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
51. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
52. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
53. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
54. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
55. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
56. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
57. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
58. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
59. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
60. East Lothian Majority 6803 (11.5%)
61. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
62. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)*
63. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
64. Paisley & Renfrewshire South Majority 5684 (12.3%)
65. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
66. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
67. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
68. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
69. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
70. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
71. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
72. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
73. Arfon Majority 3668 (13.6%)
74. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
75. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
76. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
77. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Majority 5599 (14.2%)
78. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)*
79. Brighton, Pavilion Majority 7967 (14.5%)
80. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
81. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
82. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
83. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
84. Aberdeen South Majority 7230 (14.8%)
85. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
86. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
87. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)*
88. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
89. Edinburgh South West Majority 8135 (15.8%)
90. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
91. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
92. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)*
93. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
94. Rutherglen & Hamilton West Majority 9975 (17.4%)
95. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
96. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
97. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
98. Ochil & South Perthshire Majority 10168 (17.6%)
99. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
100. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
101. Paisley & Renfrewshire North Majority 9076 (18%)
102. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)*
103. Lanark & Hamilton East Majority 10100 (18.3%)
104. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
105. Dunfermline & West Fife Majority 10352 (18.6%)
106. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
107. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
108. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Majority 9974 (18.8%)
109. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
110. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
111. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
112. Edinburgh East Majority 9106 (19.3%)
113. Glasgow Central Majority 7662 (19.4%)
114. Airdrie & Shotts Majority 8779 (19.8%)
115. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)*
116. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
117. Stirling Majority 10480 (20.1%)
118. Midlothian Majority 9859 (20.4%)
119. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
120. Linlithgow & Falkirk East Majority 12934 (21%)
121. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
122. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
123. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
124. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Majority 11265 (21.5%)
125. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
Comments - 3,588 Responses on “Labour Target seats”
  1. sorry <300 tory mps can't control the house of commons on their own.

  2. “Would you accept the same bet as Robin (ie. That Ed Miliband will not be PM at any time in 2015)?”

    Yes I would. Can we arrange a bet?

  3. Labour on 36% with YouGov tonight, their highest since October 1st.

  4. Predicted Labour gains off the Conservatives

    1) North Warwickshire; (2) Hendon; (3) Cardiff North; (4) Sherwood; (5) Broxstowe; (6) Lancaster & Fleetwood; (7) Amber Valley (8) Waveney; (9) Wolverhampton South West; (10) Morecambe & Lunesdale; (11) Carlisle; (12) Stroud; (13) Lincoln; (14) Weaver Vale; (15) Plymouth Sutton & Devonport; (16) Dewsbury; (17) Warrington South; (18) Bedford; (19) Brighton Kemptown (20) Corby; (21) Brentford and Isleworth; (22) Hove; (23) Enfield North; (24) Hastings & Rye; (25) Ipswich; (26) Halesowen & Rowley Regis; (27) Nuneaton; (28) Northampton North; (29) Bury North; (30) Erewash; (31) Croydon Central; (32) Keighley; (33) Wirral West; (34) Cannock Chase; (35) Ealing Central & Acton; (36) Stevenage; (37) Norwich North; (38) Dudley South

    I suspect there will be the odd maverick Conservative hold high up Labour’s target list as there can often be in elections. I’ve got Stockton South and Pudsey falling under that category.

    I think UKIP may well win Thurrock but it would not surprise me that much if Labour won it.

    I also expect one or two Labour gains on above average swings i.e. the new town of Stevenage, Norwich North where there will be considerable by-election unwind and the volatile Black Country marginal of Dudley South where of course there will be no Tory incumbent.

    Labour gains off the Liberal Democrats:

    (1) Norwich South; (2) Bradford East; (3) Brent Central; (4) Manchester Withington; (5) Burnley; (6) East Dunbartonshire; (7) Redcar; (8) Hornsey and Wood Green; (9) Cardiff Central; (10) Cambridge

    I agonised over Bermondsey & Old Southwark but I think Hughes will just about hold on.

  5. sensible. you’re suggesting 48 gains for labour against ld and tory…assuming 10 losses to the snp [which i think is too generous to the snp], you’re looking at labour on about 296 seats.

    I think thurrock is a very likely ukip gain. The candidate tim aker seems high profile and engaged.

    I still think labour are being oversold. I can see labour gains in Stevenage, Rossendale & Darwen, Harlow and even Worcester…the ukip vote could harm the tories in places that even on the labour gains radar, like Stourbridge.

  6. the ukip vote could harm the tories in places that AREN’T even on the labour gains radar, like Stourbridge.

  7. I think the Tories will hold:
    Morecambe, Halesowen, Wirral West, probably Dudley South

    I think Labour will gain Thurrock

    I think the Lib Dems will hold Cambridge and East Dunbartonshire (maybe…) but will lose Edinburgh West

    I think the SNP will win 6-9 seats from Labour

  8. Yes, I too have factored in 10 SNP gains from Labour but I am hedging my bets somewhat. But yes, I think Labour will be about 5 either side of the 300 mark with the Conservatives in the high 270s/ low 280s.

  9. 10 SNP Gains from Labour, 6 SNP Holds, 5 SNP gains from LD, 1 Lab Gain from LD and 2 Con Gains from Lib Dem would result in –

    Lab 32
    SNP 21
    Con 3
    LD 3

  10. I think Kennedy, Carmichael and Thurso will hold on.

  11. I think the Conservatives will take West Aberdeenshire from the Lib Dems though you would clearly have to put the SNP in the running now as well. I wouldn’t rule out a narrow Conservative gain in Berwickshire either but I’d still make the Lib Dems favourites.

  12. Can’t see Labour doing much in Norfolk but should win Norwich South by default

  13. Tory,

    how many seats will the tories gain off the lib dems in your opinion.

    If they lose 38 to labour as you suggest, and let’s say 2 to UKIP…that’s 40 down from 305 which makes 265…a low 280s total implies abt. 15 gains from the lib dems which seems a tad ambitious to me….

    Smithson is a seller of tories at 280 seats…. which seems fair enough to me. His argument is simple: as most tory seats and votes are in england (about 90%+), they need to be doing a lot better against labour in england to have a chance of holding enough seats to get 280.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/12/26/for-the-tories-defending-what-they-won-in-england-in-2010-is-the-overwhelming-objective/

  14. Peter- I have put my prediction on the Lib Dem defence thread but will reproduce it here.

    Conservative gains from Lib Dems:

    (1) Solihull; (2) Mid Dorset; (3) Wells; (4) St Austell & Newquay; (5) Somerton & Frome; (6) Chippenham; (7) Taunton; (8) Berwick upon Tweed; (9) West Aberdeenshire
    (10) Torbay; (11) Portsmouth South

    I have the Conservatives losing 5 to UKIP: Thurrock; Clacton; Rochester & Strood; South Thanet and Boston & Skegness.

    That leaves me predicting that the Conservatives will end up on 275 with Labour on 297 (38 gains off Conservatives +10 off Lib Dems – 10 off SNP).

  15. The calculation also assumes there are no Labour losses outside Scotland.

    The most frequently mentioned Labour seats at risk of being lost appear to be Southampton Itchen (to the Tories) and Great Grimsby (to UKIP).

    Are there any others which Labour could be in genuine danger of losing?

  16. Tory,

    quite sensible stuff…I agree with James Peel that the labour reach could be a little further down …the ashcroft poll in stevenage was a surprise, i must say. I also think places where we have no constituency polling data, like Stourbridge and Harlow could be interesting. On that basis, I think Labour will get 300+, even if you factor a loss of 10 to the SNP.

    I don’t think Labour will lose any seats in England.

  17. I too was rather surprised by the Ashcroft poll in Stevenage though there is a history of volatility that is characteristic of New Towns.

    I expect Robert Halfon win Harlow without too much difficulty- he is a good fit for that type of seat. Stourbridge could be tight but the Conservatives managed to carry it in this year’s local elections. We should also remember that it is more suburban that both Dudley South and Halesowen & Rowley Regis on the whole.

    As for Conservative seats further down which may be vulnerable, I would expect Rossendale & Darwen result to be quite tight though the Ashcroft poll in neighbouring Pendle looks very encouraging for the Conservatives. I suppose I’d then be looking at the two Greater London seats of Ilford North and Enfield Southgate and possibly Crewe & Nantwich given the likely by-election unwind. As it happens I think the Conservatives will carry all of those seats, albeit narrowly.

    I tend to agree with Peter that Labour will avoid losses outside Scotland though Southampton Itchen intrigues me.

  18. *more suburban than

  19. A 5% labour lead in Stevenage, acc. to Ashcroft, whereas the Pendle poll showed a 3% tory lead. the council strength of labour in darwen and rossendale is slightly more impressive than in pendle.

    As far as i understand, the tories have a plurality just in pendle, whereas i think they’re outnumbered in the wards which make up the rossendale and darwen seat…

  20. I agree with a lot of what Tory says. I have a feeling that Labour will just scrape home in Stockton S, but not Pudsey, but it’s just a feeling. I remain fairly optimistic about Blackpool N despite the Ashcroft poll, but far from 100%. I do rather fancy Labour to take Chester too.

  21. Barnaby @ I am certain that Labour would be on course to regain the old Blackpool North & Fleetwood…..but I think the new boundaries could help the Conservatives just to hold on. Basically the 5 very Labour Fleetwood wards on Wyre Council have been swapped for the more competitive Blackpool wards of Layton and Park.

    Unlike Blackpool as a whole the North Shore and Cleveleys have more in character with Lytham St Anne’s.

  22. Tory, I agree with pretty much all your predictions upthread though I would be quite surprised if Labour did gain Stevenage though it’s far from impossible. I actually think Southampton Itchen will be a Conservative gain due to the loss of incumbency and a poor choice of candidate defending for Labour. I also think the SNP will manage slightly more gains than you’ve accounted for. I’d say about 12 gains from Labour.

  23. There have been 2 polls in Itchen. One showed a dead heat, the other Labour 8% ahead. On the balance of probabilities I think Labour will hold on, but that next time the Tories form a government they will take it. Possibly they will do so even in a year where they fail to do so narrowly.

  24. EW YEAR’S RESOLUTION

    Happy New Year to everyone on this site.

    I will not be posting on here in 2015 because I need to conserve my energy for my struggle against Chronic Fatigue Syndrome. This means abstaining from all unnecessary internet usage.

    So if you see me posting on this board please kindly tell me to do one.

    However, I will need to come back briefly after May 7th to arrange to settle up with Barnaby and H. Hemmelig (as I have bets with both about different aspects of the election result).

    FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH, HERE IS MY FINAL FORECAST FOR MAY 2015:

    CON 36%
    LAB 30%
    LIB DEM 14%
    UKIP 10%
    OTHERS 10%

    This means I have reduced the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems by 1% each since the forecast I posted in the summer of 2014 and by 2% each since my forecast of summer 2013. This adjustment reflects the fact that UKIP have secured a place in one of the leaders’ debates and are likely to win the endorsement of two national “newspapers”.

    Even so, I reckon the UKIP bubble will burst and my forecast reflects this fact. They may even surge during the short campaign but their vote share will still collapse on polling day, as is the trend for insurgent parties.

    TOLERANCE LEVEL

    Naturally, there is a range of doubt in my estimate (for the obvious reason that there are always unforeseen events that occur in the run-up to any general election). Although a 6% Tory lead is my central forecast I reckon it could realistically be anywhere between 3% and 9%. I’m basing this on the extent of the variation in the pro-Tory recovery towards the end of past Conservative parliaments.

    My central forecast is actually slightly better for the Tories than might be expected given the average of previous ‘swing backs’. This is because I have taken into account the fact that the swing back has tended to be more pronounced in later Conservative parliaments than in those of the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s. (It seems reasonable to assume that the more recent recent the parliament the more likely it is to form an accurate trend model for the current parliament). I am also making the assumption that the Tories will be the marginal beneficiaries of any fall in UKIP support.

    ED FOR PM?

    It it possible, though unlikely, that Ed Miliband could yet get the keys to Downing Street – especially if issues like the A&E crisis conspire to discombobulate David Cameron. Although the Tories look certain to win the popular vote Labour will have a plurality of seats if we can get within 4% of the Conservative vote share. In these circumstances Ed might be able to make the case for the minor parties backing him in a hung parliament.

    However, if Labour are more than 4% adrift then David Cameron would have won the election both in terms of votes and seats and at that point the rules of natural justice would in all probability make a Miliband premiership unsustainable.

    Ed’s best chance probably lies with Labour concentrating on its strongest issues (e.g. the NHS – which worked wonders for us in Hammersmith & Fulham in the May 2014 local elections) rather than us trying to outdo UKIP on immigration and thus risk increasing the saliency of that issue.

    More predictions for May 2015…

    THESE THINGS ARE CERTAIN OR ALMOST CERTAIN TO HAPPEN:

    > No party will win an overall majority.
    > The Tories will win a majority of English seats.
    > Labour will win the most votes and seats in Scotland, partially arresting the SNP surge.
    > UKIP will win only one seat (Clacton).
    > The Lib Dems will hold most of their current seats.
    > The swings will be massively uneven, with Labour and the Tories trading seats.
    > Nigel Farage will complain about the electoral system during the BBC’s election night coverage.

    Overall the election result of 2015 will look more like the election result of 2010 than the current polls are suggesting. This is because people behave differently in the sobriety of the polling booth in a general election to the way they behave when registering a mid-term protest in a by-election or when answering a hypothetical voting intention survey. Even so, I’m reasonably confident that Labour’s parliamentary representation will see a net increase.

    Good luck for the new year, everyone.

  25. It’s just so up in the air – just one indication of this, for example, is the bookies odds. They are between 4/1 & 6/1 for ALL likely post election governments: % wise….

    LAB MAJ. 20%
    CON MAJ.18%
    LAB MIN. 18%
    CON MIN. 17%
    CON/LIB..20%
    LAB/LIB…17%

    So I have no problem with any of your statements/predictions – apart from one….I don’t think anyone can say; “…It is certain or almost certain” that UKIP will win Clacton and no others.

  26. I’d be very surprised if Labour didn’t gain Chester from the Conservative’s.

  27. I’m at a loss as to why Robin Hood, who purports to be a Labour supporter, is so consistently negative, and I mean publicly negative, about Labour prospets.

    There is no way on God’s Green Earth that the Tories will beat Labour by 6.

  28. Robin Hood @ don’t think Labour will out poll the SNP as the SNP are 17 points ahead and to do that Labour would need to cut the SNP poll lead by 1% every week between now and election day.

    Time is not on Scottish Labours side.

  29. ..I think ROBIN HOOD said he has a range of 3-9%, whilst 9% Tory margin in vote share can realistically be discounted, I don’t think a 3 % or 4% or even 5% is unthinkable. What he says about LAB shrinkage and Tory recovery/swing back is something which generally chimes with my own thoughts – a huge amount of voters will start to think of the economy/financial competence – something the Tories have a big lead on.

  30. A dwindling Labour then increasing Con UK lead will only hinder Scottish Labours chances of recovery.

    Labours strategy of targeting 106 seats assumed that all Labours current seats were safe and did not require any resources and Jim Murphy is confident of holding every single one of the 41 Labour seats in Scotland.

  31. I tend to agree with Robin Hood re -Scotland in that I expect Labour to outpoll the SNP next May. His national forecast,however, seems much less likely implying as it doe a 4.5% Labour to Tory swing in the barely four months remaining to polling day – particularly as historically the formal month long election campaign usually favours the Opposition.

  32. Happy New Year to everyone on UK Polling Report!

  33. “However, I will need to come back briefly after May 7th to arrange to settle up with Barnaby and H. Hemmelig (as I have bets with both about different aspects of the election result).”

    Just to reassure Robin that I will also pop in here to settle up with him after the election, though as I explained a few weeks ago I will otherwise not be posting here any more.

    Also I wish Robin luck recovering from his illness, and happy new year to all.

    Kudos to Robin for making such a “brave” prediction, though suffice it to say I personally agree with hardly any of it. We’ll see in a few months time who was right.

    My personal view is that the election result will be far messier and less decisive than Robin’s forecast, and I wouldn’t like to call at this stage whether Lab or Con will have the highest vote share. I think they will both be very close, probably within the 32-34% range. In my view this will be enough to get Labour to 290 or 300-odd seats, which will enable them to lead some kind of administration.

    I think Robin underestimates UKIP – they should be in the 12-15% range, almost certainly in 3rd place, with the Lib Dems only barely in double digits if at all.

    Good luck to everyone with their predictions and, for those who are activists, with your campaigning.

  34. Cheers Hemmelig. I eagerly await the year of psephological discussion we have ahead of us.

  35. Happy New Year to everyone. (Btw I’m interested in the Ed Miiband PM bet with HH).

  36. Hi Andy

    Happy to have the same bet with you as with Robin. Think the stake was £25. I win if Miliband becomes PM before the end of 2015, you win if he doesn’t (or if he resigns as party leader before the end of the year).

  37. I agree far more with H.Hemmelig than Robin. I cannot see the Conservatives, given UKIP’s presence, polling the same share of the vote as in 2010. I incline towards Labour getting about 1% fewer votes than the Conservatives & the same sort of numbers of seats as H.Hemmelig suggests. It’s only 3 months & a few days before the election is called, and I doubt that a swingback can really be of the magnitude that Robin suggests. Robin you are reliant on theories & historical precedent, but you oddly completely accept some historical precedents & reject others out of hand. And you underestimate UKIP. How much change in the polls can there really be in 3 months?

  38. My expectation and fear at present is that the result will be deadlocked. Labour could win most seats, just. The Conservatives could win most votes. Both would have fewer than 300 seats. The Lib Dems would hang on to enough seats to stop either of them winning a majority, but be incapable forming a credible coallition with either. The number of “others” in Parliament will exceed 30 and be fragmented, so a majority coallition of two parties will not be possible.
    This leads to several months of deadlock, until a new election, which is what UKIP and SNP would want to allow them a breakthrough in seats. They will both get many decent second places, but win few seats.

    The Parliament Act will complicate things.

    Meanwhile the economic effect of a prolonged political deadlock would be significant.

    This outcome will only change if either Labour or the Conservatives manage to galvanise support behind them, and this is looking increasingly unlikely.

  39. That analysis isn’t quite correct. If neither Labour nor the Conservatives have won more than 300 seats, it would inevitably mean that the SNP had already achieved their breakthrough.

  40. A happy New Year to everyone here.

    I wonder what the possibility of there being two elections in 2015 is.

  41. Has a re-run election ever produced a different outcome?

  42. Depends how you define rerun.

    50 and 51.

  43. Ah OK, somewhat unusual circumstances though and different kind of electoral bias to that we have now. I can’t imagine the Queen’s holiday plans triggering an election these days. However I note that the liberal vote transferred almost completely to the Tories in 1951. I guess we would call that tactical voting these days.

    Or perhaps a primitive form of AV.

  44. HH — I’m happy with a stake of £25 for the Ed Miliband PM bet. I was going to ask whether it would still be active if there is a second general election during 2015 but I’m happy for the bet to stand even if there is.

  45. Barnaby, Happy New Year.

    My estimate is as follows. The Lib Dems hang on to 25-30 seats. The Northern Irish seats account for 18 seats. The Speaker, a Green and three Plaid seats make a further 5. I assume UKIP at between one and five seats. The SNP would get 11, their existing 6 seats, plus the easy targets of Ochil, Dundee West and Falkirk from Labour and Gordon and Argyll from the Lib Dems. This makes between 60 and 69 seats for “others”.

    The Labour and Conservative total would be between 581 and 590. Given the divided nature of the result, a two party coalition would not be possible. Even if it were, the lesson from the current Government, is that a coalition needs enough of a majority to allow for backbench rebellions. John Major did not have this headroom in the last low majority government.

    Hence my pessimism about the stability of the result.

  46. So if it was necessary to have a second election what would happen to the leaders if it was 285 seats each? Would they stay or go?

  47. That’s an interesting point. It would probably be better for the parties for most of them to go but there wouldn’t be time to organise it, so they’d be stuck with the same leaders for a second election. And that would probably mean an even higher vote for the smaller parties.

  48. What would a second election mean for the smaller parties, (liberals, UKIP, nationalists and greens)? Would a second election squeeze their vote as the choice becomes stark between Labour and the conservatives or might it increase as these parties finally establish Westminster electoral credibility with second places / good vote shares or a mini break through with seat numbers (minus liberals obviously)? If the latter could this conceivably create a third consecutive hung parliament which surely has no precedent.?

  49. Tory’s list of Labour gains from the Tories looks about right to me although I would add Pendle, Rosendale and Hove to his list

    I’m also not sure why he has omitted the Welsh seats as I would have thought there is certainly two, maybe three, seats that Labour will expect to take back from the Tories

    And I’m not sure whether Wharton’s hard work on with regards to holding a referendum on British membership of the EU is likely to be enough for him to buck the trend in Stockton South

  50. According to the Guardian:
    “Labour has now identified at least 17 seats where it is at risk of failing to take the constituency because the Green party is chomping through their core leftwing support.”

    What seats do you think these are?

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