Labour Target Seats

These are the hundred and twenty five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Labour party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Labour in practice, or that they are the seats the Labour party will actually be targetting at the next general election. The Labour party won 232 seats at the last general election, so would need to win another ninety-four seats to secure an overall majority in the House of Commons.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
10. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
11. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
12. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
13. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
14. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
15. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
16. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
17. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
18. Sheffield, Hallam Majority 2353 (4.2%)
19. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
20. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
21. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
22. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
23. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
24. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
25. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
26. East Renfrewshire Majority 3718 (6.6%)
27. Leeds North West Majority 2907 (6.7%)
28. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
29. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
30. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
31. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
32. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
33. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
34. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
35. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
36. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
37. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
38. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
39. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
40. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
41. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
42. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
43. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
44. Edinburgh North & Leith Majority 5597 (9.6%)
45. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
46. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
47. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
48. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
49. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
50. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
51. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
52. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
53. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
54. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
55. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
56. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
57. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
58. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
59. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
60. East Lothian Majority 6803 (11.5%)
61. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
62. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)*
63. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
64. Paisley & Renfrewshire South Majority 5684 (12.3%)
65. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
66. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
67. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
68. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
69. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
70. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
71. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
72. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
73. Arfon Majority 3668 (13.6%)
74. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
75. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
76. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
77. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Majority 5599 (14.2%)
78. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)*
79. Brighton, Pavilion Majority 7967 (14.5%)
80. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
81. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
82. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
83. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
84. Aberdeen South Majority 7230 (14.8%)
85. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
86. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
87. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)*
88. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
89. Edinburgh South West Majority 8135 (15.8%)
90. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
91. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
92. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)*
93. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
94. Rutherglen & Hamilton West Majority 9975 (17.4%)
95. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
96. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
97. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
98. Ochil & South Perthshire Majority 10168 (17.6%)
99. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
100. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
101. Paisley & Renfrewshire North Majority 9076 (18%)
102. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)*
103. Lanark & Hamilton East Majority 10100 (18.3%)
104. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
105. Dunfermline & West Fife Majority 10352 (18.6%)
106. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
107. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
108. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Majority 9974 (18.8%)
109. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
110. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
111. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
112. Edinburgh East Majority 9106 (19.3%)
113. Glasgow Central Majority 7662 (19.4%)
114. Airdrie & Shotts Majority 8779 (19.8%)
115. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)*
116. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
117. Stirling Majority 10480 (20.1%)
118. Midlothian Majority 9859 (20.4%)
119. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
120. Linlithgow & Falkirk East Majority 12934 (21%)
121. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
122. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
123. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
124. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Majority 11265 (21.5%)
125. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
Comments - 3,595 Responses on “Labour Target seats”
  1. Thank you for your spreadsheet Andy. It is very nice.
    Although I find the PDF file from the GLA excellent for all the figures
    yours is excellent as an overview.

    Although it is common knowledge that the general election effect in 2010 produced a much more uniform pattern than is normal for local elections,
    it is quite striking the signifiant number of seats dominated or almost dominated by one party, as a lead across the area, on a more uniform turnout sweeps up the seats.

    (Not always true though).
    My own Borough was somewhat different because the Conservatives did better locally
    but we had an interesting pattern of majorities being cut and reduced by the leveller effect.

  2. Sorry my mistake. I was thinking of Bunhill ward in which the Libs have no representation. There is certainly a lot of development in Clerkenwell (the Mount Pleasant Royal Mail site is huge) and I get the impression that Islington Council is not as strict as Camden in ensuring that those mostly luxury developments contain a decent level of affordable homes. A ward councillor from Holborn & Covent Garden ward said that the large swanky Renzo Piano designed mixed use Central St Giles development off Tottenham Court Road was up to 40% housing association.

  3. It’s in the political interest of both Camden and Islington councils to be strict on the “affordable” component of new developments because it ensures that they retain at least some base of core Labour voters in rapidly gentrifying areas.

    Tory councils such as my own in Bromley often find ways to locate the affordable bits of a new development in neighbouring Labour areas….which suits the Labour councils in Lewisham and Greenwich just fine.

  4. Its also a good idea to avoid areas filled with nothing but very expensive housing to ensure local people have a chance of remaining there

  5. In London there’s increasingly no such thing as local people (look at the immigration and emigration stats) and no such thing as affordable housing. Certainly a lot of what is officially described as affordable is anything but.

  6. Wirral West CLP has not yet selected. Members ballot is May 25.

  7. Why , in Labour’s January list of target seats , is Finchley and Golders Green said to require a 6. 2% swing , and here 12.3%?

  8. Susan – figure above is the majority, not the swing needed (required swing is basically half the majority, so you need a 5% swing to overturn a 10% majority, a 6% swing to overturn a 12% majority, etc, etc)

  9. Interesting to note that there are only three LibDem seats in the Labour top 25 targets. Norwich South is probably the one where best defence can be offered, Brent Central can be left to the charms of Lembit Opik.

  10. Yes but Labour are likely to go furterh down the list of seats targetted from the LDs than the Tories. You can count on it that in addition to those three Labour will take BUrnley, Manchester Withingotn and East Dunbartonshire while Birmimngham Yardley looks dicey while much further down the list Cambridge at 109 is a very strong prospect while nestled amongst Tory held seats which Labour are extremely unlikely to gain.
    A bit of nuance needed?

  11. Thats eight by my count… how does that get the LibDems down to the 30 or 25 that some of the pundits in here are touting?

    They are implying the Conservatives lose strongly to Labour and picking up some 30 LibDem seats at the same time, while they are fighting the UKIP to their right…?

    Somewhere the electoral calculus is awry. Or maybe I am not including the X factor of wishful thinking in their equation…

  12. Given the madness of local politics there, I would dare to say there are almost more chances to create the right circumstances for a surprising LD hold in Bradford East rather than Norwich South.

    Have Labour decided for an AWS or Open shortlist in Bradford East? During the spring NEC meetings, when Yorkshire and Humber shortlits were considered, they delayed the decision on Bradford East. I am not sure if they have settled it by now.

  13. Interesting comment, Andrea…. clearly the local MP may have fallen foul of the LibDem whip and may not get much assistance from the mothership, but with the Muslim percentage of the voting population higher than his share last election, he may have been singing to the congregation not the altar in his outburst… and it may pay off..

  14. “Thats eight by my count… how does that get the LibDems down to the 30 or 25 that some of the pundits in here are touting?”

    You’ll have to ask them because I expect them to hold about 40

  15. That implies the Tories winning 9 seats from the LibDems (and I repeat while fighting UKIP on their right)… with Labour taking votes from the Tories..

    refresh me on the math on that…

  16. The math is that the Tory share is holding up reasonably well in polls compared with 2010 (currently only down a couple of %) while the LD share has collapsed. While inevitably they will hold up better in some seats where they have incumbency they still stand to lose a number of seats to the Tories even with the Tories standing still or dropping some vote share and in some seats they will be losing incumbency (eg Dorset Mid/Poole N, Berwick on Tweed). Labour are not going to be taking many votes off the Tories in these kind of seats (or anywhere else frankly) but will take LD votes due to tactical unwind. I can easily see the Tories gaining 9 seats from the LDs with hardly any likely to switch the other way (though there are always one or two which buck the trend)

  17. Also your maths is not accounting for a number of seats in Scotland which are vulnerable to the SNP (Argyll, INverness, Gordon, Caithness even).
    Perhaps you could tell us how manys eats you expect the LDs to win?

  18. As I said in the LidDem target page, I expect them to take back a bunch of seats from the Tories.

    Camborne, Oxford West, Truro, Newton Abbott, Winchester, Romsey. Montgomeryshire. Southeast Cornwall and Harrogate.

    I don’t see Berwick necessarily as a loss… nor Dorset Mid.

    Would not expect any wins from Labour but instead some losses… maybe not the obvious ones though…

    I have no opinion of Scotland..

    Send in the men with the white coats…

  19. Youe xpect to gain a number of seats from the Tories and what – no losses to them? Perhaps you can explain some of the maths behind it. Yous eem to think the Tories are losing votes to Labour and UKIP and LDs not losing votes? Have you studied opinion polls at all? Local election results since the general election?

  20. NO LOSSES to the Tories.. read my lips…

    I prefer looking seat by seat not by absolute swing… if total number of votes counted then the swing to the LibDems in 2010 would have brought a few more seats instead we were net losers.. its all about the specific constituency.. look at Montgomeryshire.. I expect it might be a by-election before the 2015 event…

    I live in Winchester so know what is happening around these parts re Romsey and Winchester constituencies

  21. Thanks for answering my question (the one about you being the new Gloy Plopwell that is)

  22. @Antiochian
    You’re clearly very optimistic about your party’s chances against the Tories.

    I personally believe that you have no chance of taking back nearly all of the seats that you mention, although I would have to say the best chances of gains if you do well enough are probably in Truro, Oxford West and Newton Abbot but even then I don’t think you’ll necessarily win all of them- I can’t see your party regaining Camborne or Montgomeryshire either- You will lose votes back to Labour in Camborne and in Montgomeryshire the incumbent Conservative has personal support and the majority could increase there.

    Finally, I have to agree with Pete. Have you actually bothered to look at any local election trends? You claim you’re in Winchester but look at the task ahead of your party to defeat Steve Brine- You’d need to select a good candidate in any case, particularly after the Lib Dems’ problems there in recent years.

    Overall, I disagree with you and I would have to say that your barefaced partisanship in favour of the Lib Dems has no place on this site and I suggest that you refer to the Comments Policy that AW put up to prevent posters from being overly partisan on a psephological website. I don’t know why you think you can get away with this, but believe me I know you shouldn’t.

    I’m sorry to say that the more you post on here claiming a great result for your party come 2015 the more you embarrass yourself and your party and this does you no favours at all. I personally have nothing against Lib Dems but the nature of your posts excruciate me and I suspect many others on here.

  23. Let he who has not sinned cast the first stone…

  24. As for Winchester I posted months ago that a very well-known local councillor had been chosen as LibDem candidate… hmmm.. those on here who rely upon the VERY outdated LibDem candidate page (still reading May 13th) for guidance on who the PPCs are cannot really make informed commentary on the matter..

    Same goes for Mid Dorset…

  25. Don’t talk rubbish.

    All you’re doing is talking a load of nonsense.

    I don’t care who you’ve chosen to stand for Winchester, you’re not going to win the seat- Accept it.

    And as for your prejudice against the candidate selection updates, we don’t rely on those, we find out other ways- I wish you would stop parroting this whenever someone has the guts to confront your ludicrous postings.

    You have to wake up and accept that your views are deluded my friend- You won’t gain Winchester and you won’t gain Mid Dorset. Basically chances are you won’t gain any seats at all, and even if you do it will just be one or two. Just accept that.

    Please contribute something sensible for God’s sake.

  26. Thus spake Zarathustra…

    You didn’t even know that Winchester had a PPC (whether you didn’t find it out here or didn’t know it from elsewhere) you just didn’t know.

    If Mid Dorset is won it is a hold not a gain technically speaking…. I have never responded to the more abusive participants in here but I think the American saying “he’s off his meds” is the most appropriate here….

    I see you are conceding two seats now to be taken from the Tories… yikes… that makes the calculus even harder to understand…. we have Pete’s 9 losses to Labour, your two gains from Tories and a grand total of 30-40 seats held… ahh, I get it the UKIP take the other 10-20!!

  27. No I don’t think you will take two seats off the Tories but I think they are your two best chances. I personally believe that you won’t gain any seats at all- You will be lucky if you will, trust me.

    Why do you have to be so spiteful and cheeky? You know what you’re doing and you don’t get to me at all. So stop it now.

    And for your information, I DID know that the Lib Dems had selected for Winchester, and I also object to you being so pedantic RE my mistake of saying that Mid Dorset would be a gain instead of a hold- In any case, you will lose that seat, so face facts.

  28. What’s Bob up to these days?

  29. I am not pedantic I am just going upon what people say… Loose lips sink ships..

    You say: “No I don’t think you will take two seats off the Tories but I think they are your two best chances.”

    What are the two best chances? Winchester? Not as good a chance as some of the Cornish seats, surely.. Mid-Dorset? You mean LibDems taking it from LibDems?

    Then you said “Basically chances are you won’t gain any seats at all, and even if you do it will just be one or two”.

    now two posts lower down you state “you won’t gain any seats at all”..

    Higher up even you speak about the need to choose a good candidate for Winchester as if one hadn’t been chosen and now you say you did know one had been chosen..

    and I am the one who is confused?

  30. Here we go again.

    I knew the candidate for Winchester had already been chosen, I was merely stating that the candidate would have to be a good one in order to put up a good fight.

    I think your two best chances of gains are Oxford West and Truro but I don’t think you will take them. Also I think you will lose Mid Dorset to the CONSERVATIVES, please don’t patronise me, cheers.

  31. In the end, this has been a very silly argument, with the silliness very heavily skewed towards the LibDem side. In the end, as TheResults quite rightly implies, the fact that someone didn’t know that an LD candidate had been selected for Winchester does not mean that the Tories will lose that seat to that party. They won’t. I wouldn’t rule out the odd LD gain from the Tories, but I think that anyone who seriously thinks that a whole list of seats will disappear in that direction is living in cloud cuckoo land.

  32. @BarnabyMarder
    I would wholeheartedly agree with you and at the end of the day I think that Antiochian’s comments lapping up of his party’s chances are ridiculously over-optimistic.

    The very fact that he refused to see my point of view demonstrates that- I tried to be civil, but he kept coming back with various pompous and downright pretentious cliched phrases like ‘Let he who has not sinned cast the first stone…’, ‘Thus spake Zarathustra…’ and ‘Loose lips sink ships..’. I’m sorry, but you’ll never make many friends with remarks such as those.

  33. I have made my own Lib Dem seat forecast for 2015 very clear (between 40 and 45). My prediction is less optimistic for the Lib Dems than Antiochian’s view, but more optimistic than almost any other poster on here bar the more partisan Lib Dems like Mark Senior and Doktorb.

    What I do believe is a big risk on here however is that we are prone to the dangers of groupthink. For that reason I welcome comments which make us question the boundaries of our groupthink consensus.

    It gets very irritating when the likes of Bob and Windsofchange spam multiple threads….but Antiochian does not do that.

  34. @Anitochian
    I am not a troll, neither is Barnaby. You are wrong.

    Also when you go around making stupid forecasts like that what do you honestly expect people to say?

  35. I’ve done a combined target list for the three main parties:

  36. Thanks for that, Andy. Some very interesting stuff.

    I’m a bit disappointed that even your list covering 127 possible LibDem gains doesn’t go as far as Sefton Central, which one (troll) poster last week-end apparently cited as a possible LD gain from Labour.

    As for Antiochan – I’d only say that you might like to consult a bookmaker. A £1 accumulator on those 9 seats to go from Con to LD could make you very rich, if it actually happens.

  37. Its looks achievable for Labour to get to 300-310 seats based on their targets, but after that it becomes very difficult to approach a sustainable working majority which will last a full parliament.

    I think it very likely that Labour will take nearly all their target seats currently held by the Lib Dems with the exception of those Scottish constituencies which have a long standing Liberal tradition.

  38. I don’t think that anyone except yourself, Antiochian, would think of me as a troll in psephological terms.

  39. “A £1 accumulator on those 9 seats to go from Con to LD could make you very rich, if it actually happens.”

    Wrong. A bookmaker would never accept such a bet due to the “related contingencies” rule – ie. the outcome of one bet affecting the odds of all the others.

  40. @ HH

    OK, but even individually a LibDem gain would surely be long odds in most of them.

  41. True, but a stake of 11p on 9 long shot single bets isn’t going to make you very rich.

  42. Not that I disagree with the point you were making….though there might be 1-2 unforeseen LD gains, 9 is pretty absurd.

  43. James E: the LDs would require a 14% swing to win Sefton Central. I might extend the Con and LD target lists at a future date, although I doubt that either party will win any seats on a swing of more than 10%.

    The one exception might be Twickenham if Vince Cable retires, where the Tories need a swing of 10.2%.

  44. I definitely don’t think the Lib Dems will have any chance at all in Sefton Central. They will probably fall back a bit I would imagine- At least five percentage points, if not more- It is my locality, so I would have some sort of idea- I did used to live in Crosby, even though I’m now in Waterloo which although part of the Bootle seat, would probably be better in Sefton Central.

    As for Twickenham, that’s quite correct- If Cable goes, over time I would expect that seat to swing progressively back to the Tories to the point that the majority for the Lib Dems may even one day be lower than the 1997 level when they first won the seat.

  45. Twickenham won’t be an easy Tory regain even without Cable – certainly no easier than Kingston or Carshalton.

    Liberal public sector professionals are being pushed out of Richmond which makes Twickenham better for them. The best chance the Tories have would be a substantial increase in the Labour vote to 20% or so….Barnaby would tell you that is unlikely regardless of whether Cable is there or not.

  46. @HHemmelig
    I would agree with that.

    It certainly appears to be the case that in recent years Twickenham has been getting worse for them. The Tory majority as we know decreased even in 1992, when nationally the Lib Dems fell back- Though obviously the same thing happened in Sutton and Cheam, Carshalton and Wallington and to a lesser extent in Kingston-upon-Thames where Lamont’s vote fell by more than the Lib Dems’.

  47. FWIW…

    The recent Ashcroft poll…

    The second table on the second page should make very heartening reading for Labour re its Tory-held targets..

    I add the caveat that I always hated telephone polls and I wonder whether they are even more unreliable these days with people giving up landlines to go “all wireless”.. skews any sample.. but how much does this trend skew things..? anyone know…?

  48. I work for a market research company, as some of you may know, and have a reasonable idea how these things work. In almost every case, care is taken to ensure that a sample is as representative as possible of the population as a whole, or that part of which is the subject of the research. Thus, adjustments are made to correct any inbuilt bias caused by methodology, sample size/type, etc.

  49. In all these calculations, has the exact date of the 2015 general election – 7 May 2015 – been brought into account? May 2015 will be approaching the time of finals for many university students; this may reduce their campaigning time and focus their minds on future jobs rather than zeal for more radical issues.

    Will any upturn in the economy, if sustained over three or more quarters, however slight, assure the Conservatives of a safe return or enable voters to be more willing to take a risk and vote for the Labour Party on the basis that it’s fear that might keep with them with the Tories?

    Will the LibDems have any place either for inchoate protest voters, or as either the place for unhappy Conservatives to vote for rather than jumping across to Labour or unhappy Labourites to vote for rather than jumping across to the Tories? Instead UKIP might be the refuge of protest voters from either main party, with the LibDems no longer possessed of the “honesty” and “freshness” that created the startling Clegg-mania that did them so well? I see them losing shoals of votes in 2015; I cannot see from whom they might be winning many votes, if any. The non-Pr system in the UK could destroy them, even if their vote remains in many millions (even if nowhere near to 2010 levels).

    Cameron leaving the EU referendum until well clear of 2015 may rebound against him – had he held the referendum in 2014, he might have lanced the UKIP boil and secured a return home for many votes that had drifted UKIP or LibDem way. As it is, Farage will be building up steam on hate-the-EU grounds and he is certainly eloquent in a saloon bar type of way.

    Finally, housing. Homeless people have a low voting record. But angry near-homeless people facing unpleasant rent scenarios or forced re-housing to who knows where could make housing an election issue as it hasn’t really been for many many years, possibly the first time in 60 years (unless it was in 1964 and I missed it) and thus a serious problem for Cameron? Better off people who are renting at relatively high rents could begin to have empathy with those poorer than themelves over issues such as landlords being rapacious over deposit deductions. Statistically the number of people facing court action over rent or council tax arrears is getting into poll tax proportions (though that didn’t stop Major winning the 1992 election).

    Finally, will all the anti-immigration talk of the Tories rebound by re-uniting the slowly disintegrating rainbow coalition of migrants – disintegrating as they became less unified by their common migration experiences of racism on arrival and sense that Labour was on their side – that had given Labour a solid block of voters over some decades? Or will the entire election simply come down to “the economy, stupid”?

  50. As the London elections run at the same time as the Euros it would be interesting to see what the UKIP targets are in London.

    My guess would be

    Bexley – All wards (with Falconwood and Welling, Danson Park being the most targetted)

    Havering – All wards (with Gooshays the most likely to return seats)

    Barking & Dagenham – Eastbury and Village (not very likely wins but there best hopes for that borough)

    Greenwich – Eltham South and Coldbharbour & new Eltham

    Bromley – Cray Valley East and West, Mottingham, Biggin Hill and Downe.

    Croydon – Coulsdon East, Heathfield, Selsdon and Ballards

    Sutton – St Helier, Wandle Valley, the Wrythe, Stonecot, Nonsuch and Beddington North.

    Hounslow – Hanworth, Hanworth Park, Feltham North, Feltham West, Bedfont.

    Hillingdon – Harefield, South Ruislip, Uxbridge North, Uxbridge South, West Drayton, Hillingdon East, Cavendish Heathrow Villages.

    Barnet – Underhill, East Barnet

    Enfield – Cockfosters, Chase

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