Labour Target Seats

These are the hundred and twenty five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Labour party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Labour in practice, or that they are the seats the Labour party will actually be targetting at the next general election. The Labour party won 232 seats at the last general election, so would need to win another ninety-four seats to secure an overall majority in the House of Commons.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
10. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
11. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
12. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
13. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
14. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
15. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
16. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
17. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
18. Sheffield, Hallam Majority 2353 (4.2%)
19. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
20. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
21. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
22. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
23. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
24. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
25. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
26. East Renfrewshire Majority 3718 (6.6%)
27. Leeds North West Majority 2907 (6.7%)
28. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
29. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
30. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
31. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
32. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
33. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
34. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
35. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
36. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
37. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
38. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
39. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
40. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
41. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
42. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
43. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
44. Edinburgh North & Leith Majority 5597 (9.6%)
45. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
46. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
47. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
48. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
49. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
50. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
51. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
52. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
53. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
54. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
55. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
56. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
57. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
58. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
59. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
60. East Lothian Majority 6803 (11.5%)
61. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
62. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)*
63. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
64. Paisley & Renfrewshire South Majority 5684 (12.3%)
65. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
66. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
67. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
68. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
69. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
70. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
71. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
72. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
73. Arfon Majority 3668 (13.6%)
74. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
75. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
76. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
77. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Majority 5599 (14.2%)
78. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)*
79. Brighton, Pavilion Majority 7967 (14.5%)
80. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
81. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
82. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
83. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
84. Aberdeen South Majority 7230 (14.8%)
85. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
86. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
87. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)*
88. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
89. Edinburgh South West Majority 8135 (15.8%)
90. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
91. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
92. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)*
93. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
94. Rutherglen & Hamilton West Majority 9975 (17.4%)
95. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
96. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
97. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
98. Ochil & South Perthshire Majority 10168 (17.6%)
99. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
100. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
101. Paisley & Renfrewshire North Majority 9076 (18%)
102. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)*
103. Lanark & Hamilton East Majority 10100 (18.3%)
104. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
105. Dunfermline & West Fife Majority 10352 (18.6%)
106. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
107. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
108. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Majority 9974 (18.8%)
109. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
110. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
111. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
112. Edinburgh East Majority 9106 (19.3%)
113. Glasgow Central Majority 7662 (19.4%)
114. Airdrie & Shotts Majority 8779 (19.8%)
115. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)*
116. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
117. Stirling Majority 10480 (20.1%)
118. Midlothian Majority 9859 (20.4%)
119. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
120. Linlithgow & Falkirk East Majority 12934 (21%)
121. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
122. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
123. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
124. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Majority 11265 (21.5%)
125. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
Comments - 3,595 Responses on “Labour Target seats”
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  1. Where are Hendon and Thurrock?

  2. A few months ago I constructed a Labour target list which I will give a link to here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0

  3. Hendon is in North London and Thurrock is in Essex 😉

    More to the point, missing seats now added.

  4. Thanks Anthony – it is quite striking how haphazard the Labour selections have been – in 8 of the 10 most winnable seats (and 16 of the 20), they have not yet selected, however they have selected in seats way down the list like Reading E, Milton Keynes N and Cambridge.

  5. That’s not haphazardness. In seats where there was a chance of major boundary changes, and particularly where that might have affected sitting MPs, the decision was taken to delay sections.

    The seats you mention are all well away from and seat with a Labour MP and it was always reasonably obvious what a boundary commission would propose for them.

  6. Andy JS,

    This is really interesting. It makes the wards look really marginal but the swings would all have to be multiplied by 3 to be relative as these are three member wards.

    The last London Borough Council elections were held on the same day as the general election and not in the mid term of a Labour government so the swing in the marginals is not going to be as great as a mid term election in a Labour goverment to a mid term election in a Conservative coalition government where the swings can be 20 to 30% in some wards.

    My other observation is that the swing to Labour at the 2014 local elections could be greater in areas the Tories are relatively stronger in general elections than in local elections.

    In 2010 the opposite was the case and Labour gained seats in Wandsworth (Roehampton), Lambeth (Gypsey Hill), Hackney (Stamford Hill).

    Conservatives may not only hold their seats but recover seats lost in Stamford Hill in 2010 because the people who vote Labour in a general election may not come out.

    In Lambeth’s Gypsey Hill, the break in Conservative representation of this area in 2010 may make this ward hard to regain in 2014.

    The wards in the Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea are being revised with the loss of Brompton in the South of the Borough and the addition of a new ward in North Kensington. Surely this must help Labour, who must be seeking to return 15 councillors by winning the 5 most northern wards in the borough (the 4 current ones and 1 newly created one).

    Labour also use to hold South Stanley before its abolition in 2002 due to solid support in the Worlds End Estate. The area now forms the new Chelsea Riverside Ward but I assume that impact of gentrification and boundary changes has taken this ward out of Labour’s reach?

  7. Dalek: I’ve given the equivalent one party swing on the right hand side of the spreadsheet.

    As you say it’s multiplied by three in most cases except for two member wards (like Crystal Palace in Bromley).

    The targets include seats vulnerable to a swing of 5% in three party seats which is equivalent to 15% for one party swing, which I thought was about right given the last local elections were held on the same day as the general election, although maybe Labour might get a swing against the LDs of slightly more than 15% in a few places.

  8. I know there might be some boundary changes in London. If anyone produces any notional results I’ll revise the target list accordingly.

  9. Good work, Andy. It’s very interesting to see just how marginal many of these wards. The Top 10 targets in Wandsworth and Westminster are especially interesting.

  10. Techically there were sufficient marginals for Labour to take Westminster in 1990….most of which were in Westminster North but I think the West End ward (now called Mayfair & Soho) was a Labour target together with other wards in Pimlico.

  11. The true likelihood of wards changing hands can be obscured in that kind of ranking list. It depends on the geography of each area.

    In my own borough (Bromley), I think both Clock House and Cray Valley West would be easier for Labour to win than their number 1 target on your list (Crystal Palace). Labour have no chance of winning Bromley Town and only a very small chance in Mottingham & North Chislehurst.

    For once I agree with Dalek that the Tories are likely to be wiped out in Lambeth in 2014 outside of Clapham. However they will probably hold on to their seats in Dulwich.

    One of the most interesting questions for me is whether the Tories could be wiped off Tower Hamlets council. The wards are incredibly marginal. I wonder how much demographic change there has been since 2010 on the Isle of Dogs. I would have thought most of the gentrification there happened 5-10 years ago.

  12. It’s possible Labour could win every seat on around half a dozen councils. In addition to Barking&Dagenham and Newham, they may be able to achieve this feat in some of the following: Brent, Greenwich, Hackney, Haringey, Islington, Lewisham, Tower Hamlets. (I know Hackney is unlikely because they ought to be able to hold seats in the Springfield ward in mid-term).

  13. Some viewers of the spreadsheet may have noticed that the two Conservative seats in Clock House are higher up the target list despite the fact that the LDs won the third seat and the Tories the top two in 2010; This isn’t an mistake on my part. Counterintuitively the swings needed for Labour to win the three seats are lower when the swing being considered is a Con->Lab swing compared to a LD->Lab swing. (The explanation for this is the necessity of Labour to overtake the unsuccessful Conservative candidate in fourth place).

  14. Yes, there is the potential for some quite interesting results in 2014. IIRC, the Tower Hamlets wards with Conservative councillors were won by Labour in the GLA and list sections in last year’s elections though I think Boris still carried them.

    Clock House and Cray Valley in Bromley are also good shots for Labour but I wouldn’t be surprised with at least a partial gain in Crystal Palace. I also agree that the Tories will probably only manage to win seats in Lambeth in the 2 Clapham wards where they are competitive as well as holding their Dulwich seats in Southwark though they might manage the odd gain in the riverside areas.

    Barnet will be one to watch. The local council has angered many of its residents over the past couple of years and I can see Labour making a number of gains but probably not enough for the Tories to lose control. There also opportunities to make inroads in boroughs like Wandsworth and Westminster for the first time in decades as well as Hammersmith & Fulham. Other boroughs like Haringey, Camden and Islington could also see Labour strengthening their hold in these places at the expense of the Lib Dems.

    As for boroughs changing hands, Croydon and Redbridge are the most likely Labour gains. Kingston is the Conservatives’ best chance of gaining a London borough but recent by-election results have seen the Lib Dems holding up better than I thought they would so they might well lose out.

  15. The Tories won a ward in Newham South in 1990. Newham South (and the previous West Ham South) had been one of the safest Labour seats anywhere before the 1980’s. In either 1974 or the 1970s by election the Tories were beaten into 4th place by the Liberals and the National Front….and the seat became a marginal in 1987 and 1992.

    The constituency was abolished in 1997 but Pete W rightly points out that had it continued it would have reverted to being a safe Labour seat today with a 20% + majority.

    I think the constituency had considerable new housebuilding in the 1989s bringing in many new owner occupiers but many of these are now properties are now buy to let.

  16. Kingston will be interesting because the Conservatives increased they majorities in the Coombe Vale double by election while the Lib Dems retained the marginal Surbiton Hill and Berrylands by elections.

    I could see the Tories regaining seats lost in Stamford Hill lost in 2010 even if there is a big swing to Labour. in London. This is because Stamford Hill normally votes Tory in local elections but not in general elections….and the 2010 GE may have helped Labour to break into Stamford Hill by Labour votes voting who do not normally vote in local elections.

  17. “Clock House and Cray Valley in Bromley are also good shots for Labour but I wouldn’t be surprised with at least a partial gain in Crystal Palace.”

    I would be quite surprised actually (as someone who lived in Crystal Palace for a couple of years about 10 years ago).

    Crystal Palace has been locally a Liberal fiefdom since the early 1970s, and Labour always flatter to deceive there even in very good years, despite never being all that far behind. Even if the Libs lose all of their seats in Lewisham I’d be quite surprised if they lost Crystal Palace.

    Clock House is much more achievable for Labour. The Lib Dem strength there is deceptively skin deep and only dates from the dog days of the Major government. I expect the Tory vote there to hold up but it has a ceiling at around 40% and Labour could easily win if the Libs fall by enough. Cray Valley West is traditionally a very WWC Labour area and perhaps has begun to demographically tilt back towards them due to immigration. That’s probably Labour’s easiest potential gain in Bromley.

  18. “I think the constituency had considerable new housebuilding in the 1989s bringing in many new owner occupiers but many of these are now properties are now buy to let.”

    The Newham docks area redevelopments failed to take off in the 1980s and are still failing to take off today. Just look out of the train window next time you pass City Airport.

    It is all in vivid contrast to the dock developments on the Isle of Dogs, which with the help of Canary Wharf have gentrified beyond all recognition.

    As Pete has explained on the old site many times, Tory strength in Newham South was based on the large WWC vote there, not on dockside gentrification. As the WWC vote in south Newham has almost completely gone, so the Tory vote has collapsed.

  19. “It’s possible Labour could win every seat on around half a dozen councils. In addition to Barking&Dagenham and Newham, they may be able to achieve this feat in some of the following: Brent, Greenwich, Hackney, Haringey, Islington, Lewisham, Tower Hamlets”

    There was a by-election in Dollis Hill (Brent, Central constituency) last year and the LibDems got a good result.
    Some months ago there was a by-election in Southwark (within Hughes’ constituency) and Labour won but with a limited swing compared to the ones we have seen in by-elections in Islington, Camden, Lambeth.

    If the LibDems hold better in Hughes’ and Teather’s constituencies, it will probably translate in holding better also in Featherstone’s land. I don’t mean Labour won’t make gains but that they won’t wipe out LibDems in the same way they would have been in the same wards had been in Islington

  20. Andrea

    In the local elections in Brent Central, Labour were 10% ahead on the same day Sarah Teather won the seat.

    Dollis Hill is one of her strongest wards. Even if she does well there, she will be sunk if the very Labour-inclined former Brent South wards vote strongly against her, and all indications are that they will.

    In both Southwark and Hornsey the Lib Dem vote has an increasing segment of tactical Tories, as well as a long tradition of local pavement politics. In Islington South you might also find the Lib Dems a bit more resilient that you might think, due to massive gentrification around Clerkenwell and the fact they didn’t do that well in 2010 to start with. In Islington North, which is still made up of a lot of quite deprived wards, I expect the Lib Dems to fall back quite sharply.

  21. H.Hemmelig

    I was talking about 2014 locals.
    Andy suggested some boroughs where Labour could aim at a clean sweep.
    I was saying that I think LibDems are probably likely to hold some wards in Brent Central and Hornsey.

    Since 2010 there has been 3 by-elections in Islington South:
    St Peter’s (August 2011): Lab +17.5% LD -9.6%
    St Mary’s (Novembrer 2011): 20% Labour majority in a 2010 split ward
    Holloway (May 2012): Lab +12 LD -16.2% (falling into last place)

    They are actually fitting your theory though as in the 2 by-elections in Islington North they did even worse:
    Junction (last week): Lab +21.5 LD -25%
    St George’s (last week) Lab +38.5 LD -25%

  22. Would the inclusion of the three Penge wards with Lewisham for the 2010 general election have helped Labour on polling day or made little difference?

  23. The LDs actually have quite a large lead in all of the wards they currently hold in Haringey. I think Labour will be close to winning in Stroud Green & Hornsey, and have a shot at Alexandra, but several wards, most notably Highgate (which I think has never voted Labour). Fortis Green & Muswell Hill, are likely to stay LD. Labour will also find it quite hard to take Crouch End.

  24. Labour also have a good chance of taking the other 2 seats in Harringsy ward. I know it’s not in the Hornsey seat but it does border it and it is demographically similar to Hornsey particularly in its western half. Labour’s priorities should be Harringay, Stroud Green, Hornsey and Alexandra,

  25. My millions of fans on this thread may like to know that I have posted some research on the Lincoln thread highlighting the fact that Dick Taverne’s victory in the March 1973 by-election (forty years ago this month) was statistically the most outstanding by-election success ever – bar none. (George Galloway please note).

    The reason I’m flagging this up here is because since the revamp my posts have not been showing up in the “Recent Comments” list. (Anthony has made me invisible).

  26. AKMD – I didn’t mention Harringay ward, since if Labour are anywhere near taking the other wards I mentioned, they would easily win in that ward. As I believe they probably will.

  27. “Would the inclusion of the three Penge wards with Lewisham for the 2010 general election have helped Labour on polling day or made little difference?”

    It will only have made a modest difference overall, but it will certainly have lowered Labour’s vote compared with the old Lewisham West seat, and increased both the Tories and Lib Dems.

    Labour is quite strong in Penge itself but Clock House often has the Tories ahead, unlike anywhere else in Lewisham West. As discussed above, the Lib Dems are very strong in Crystal Palace and to some extent Penge as well.

  28. “The LDs actually have quite a large lead in all of the wards they currently hold in Haringey.”

    Labour’s top target is the second seat in Harringay where the LDs have a majority of 13 votes over Labour. But after that it does get more difficult for them.

  29. Best analysis on potential targets is the Adam Gray’s London Election handbook which details the swings that are needed in each council to gain individual seats, along with win control, lose control etc. Recommended reading for any election junkie and far better than the GLA publication.

    The GLA ward and list breakdowns from last year are also interesting in potential trends in wards, and movement since 2010. They do exclude postal votes, but they’re a useful guide on what may happen.

    The key boroughs in London between Labour and Conservative will be Croydon, Redbridge, Merton, Harrow and Barnet(which will be by far the hardest to win) Hammersmith and Fulham is nominally a target given that the swing required is only just over 4%, but the GLA results were disappointing.

    On a very good night Bexley and Hillingdon may come into play, but it would have to be an exceptional performance,and the Tories has fairly good results last year.

  30. No chance of Bexley “coming into play” for Labour, unless either UKIP or some kind of residents association candidates took masses of Tory votes and let Labour in on a low vote share.

    Croydon will be an easy Labour gain and probably Redbridge and Harrow as well.

    I would have thought Merton would be more difficult than it looks as in order to gain control Labour would have to penetrate well into Wimbledon.

    Barnet I don’t know well. It seems to me the Hendon and Finchley/GG wards are quite polarised and safe, so it would be in the Chipping Barnet wards where control would be determined. I’m minded to expect a narrow Con hold there, or maybe NOC if the Lib Dems keep their seats.

  31. Havering could be in danger because of the Residents Groupings etc (Upminster and to some extent Hornchurch)
    or if votes get lost to UKIP
    but I think the real question is if the C lose control or not

  32. I still hold out some optimism about Sutton if the Tories improve a bit by the end of the year
    but I refuse to change my name to Gloy Plopwell.

  33. Harrow is already controlled by Labour so I don’t know why it’s been mentioned. It is probably Labour’s most marginal London borough but I think they will be able to retain control. Croydon and Redbridge are the best chances for Labour gains in the capital with overall control of Merton a reasonable prospect. Barnet will be an interesting one but I think the Tories will retain overall control by the skin of their teeth unless the LDs hold up in Childs Hill.

  34. I agree Bexley is not remotely likely to be in play barring the circumstances HH describes. Labour managed to squeeze a majority in 2002 despite winning only a third of the popular vote (well below the Tories) but they have declined in the area since then. Hillingdon could be close, but again one or two wards Labour would need to win have clearly trended against them in recent years

  35. I think Joe your optimism re Sutton is misplaced. The result of the last by-election is extremely sobering from a Conservative point of view, and though there will probably be some swing from Lib Dem to Labour I have a feeling that it will be largest in wards where the Tories have no chance – the 3 wards in the borough where Labour was the winner in the last GLA elections are all surely beyond reach for the Conservatives. A few modest Tory gains I reckon represent the summit of the party’s ambition in Sutton. Re Merton, it probably comes down to 2 wards, Abbey & Lower Morden. The former is a former Labour stronghold which is currently split, the latter is traditionally a Tory stronghold which has become more marginal. If Labour achieves the small swing required to win Abbey outright, a single further seat would be sufficient for control, which won’t be easy but is clearly feasible. The fallback option is perhaps Cannon Hill in Wimbledon which appears to be the only ward in that constituency which has demographically moved slightly in favour of Labour, but the Tories still appear to be slight favourites at least to hold on there.

  36. Pete posted while I was typing my last contribution, and I’d have to agree that Hillingdon is most unlikely. A clean sweep of Hayes & Harlington is likely, but apart from the existing split ward of Yiewsley further gains look pretty, or even very, difficult.

  37. Which sutton by-election was this?
    I know there was one in Worcester Park where C did badly
    but I’ve forgotten where the other one was – Stonecote I think in a LD ward
    with an increased majority a few months ago

  38. I agree that Bexley doesn’t look winnable for Labour. That said, it wouldn’t take a great swing for Labour to have a group of upwards of 20 members. It won’t be a general election turnout in 2014, which will presumably make things more difficut for Labour, but it’ll be disappointing if we can’t achieve the small swing necessary to take wards like Lesnes Abbey.

  39. Yes Joe the by-election was in Stonecot. It isn’t prime Tory territory perhaps, but it’s still a pretty heavily owner-occupied ward, the sort of area where the Tories really need to make progress if they’re to make a serious impact in the borough. Since that by-election national polls actually look slightly less bad for the LDs, though I doubt whether national politics have as much effect in Sutton as in some boroughs.

  40. Labour would require a swing equivalent to 13.4% since May 2010 to take Bexley.

  41. if partys perform like they did in 2012 compared to 2009 and 2010 your looking at swings of 11% con to lab in the counties and 7.5 in london . As for con lib battle 2.5% lib to con in the counties and 3% lib to con in london. The last battle lab lib 13.5 lib to lab in the counties and 10.5 in london.

  42. And what exactly are you using as your 2012 and 2009 local elections in London to come up with that rather puzzling forecast?

    There’s no way we will see a 10.5% or 7.5% swing from Con to Lab in London. Many London wards are far too polarised demographically for that to happen.

  43. sorry for been unclear what ment was this
    london change form 2010 to 2014 based on the last locals (2012) 7.5 swing con to lab, 3% lib to con and 10.5 lib to lab.
    county councils 2009 to 2013 (based on 2012)
    11% con to lab 2.5 lib to con and 13.5 lib to lab.

  44. Libs hold few seats in islington South. None in extreme south of Borough e.g. wards covering Angel & Clerkenwell & Finsbury. The Tories are second in those wards. I think vey real possibility that Libs could be reduced to a rump of 3-5 councillors (most probably in Highbury).

  45. T&R said the Tories only polled about 35% in 2009 but still managed 33% in 2012, so if they only drop 2% against 4 years ago there would in theory be a decent harvest of Lib Dem seats to mitigate the losses to Labour which will be substantial. To coin a prhase here, they literally went off a cliff in 2009. Lincolnshire, for example, their vote just went away.

    But I remember 1991 when we thought the Tories would make major gains off the Lib Dems
    and in fact the Lib Dems conentrated their vote well in areas where the Tories had a lot to lose and made the net gains.

    I rather doubt that will happen, so I’d be cautiously looking for some increased Tory majorities in counties like Somerset.

    I do wonder whether the Tory share was only 35% in 2009 – it clearly had dropped against 2008 but perhaps not all that much – and if there was some difficulty doing a national projection from what’s left of the Counties (often on rural only Counties without the urban unitary sections which would have more iike for like contested wards)
    and the Tory vote was actually higher in 2009 than what they published,
    then it follows that the losses could be more substantial.

  46. Myth11

    London is a low swing region because there are so few swing voters these days, because of rigid race-based voting behaviour and huge wealth disparities.

    This is why the swing to the Tories in London was much lower than most regions in 2010 and it is also the reason why the swing away from the Tories will be a lot lower in 2014 than other places.

  47. That isn’t correct about Islington S – there is still one LD councillor in Clerkenwell ward. It is indeed quite a long time since Labour won that ward outright – IIRC in 1982 the sole SDP opposition member came from that ward.

  48. The next time the Tories are on the up they’ll surely have a good chance in Clerkenwell. As well as the immense gentrification that’s already happened, Crossrail will have a big impact.

  49. This spreadsheet shows the results of the 2010 London borough elections by ward, (I linked to it on the old forum):

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEw0Z0hBUG11QWRTRElTbHlBb3lIdlE#gid=0

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