Labour Target Seats

These are the hundred and twenty five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Labour party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Labour in practice, or that they are the seats the Labour party will actually be targetting at the next general election. The Labour party won 232 seats at the last general election, so would need to win another ninety-four seats to secure an overall majority in the House of Commons.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
10. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
11. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
12. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
13. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
14. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
15. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
16. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
17. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
18. Sheffield, Hallam Majority 2353 (4.2%)
19. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
20. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
21. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
22. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
23. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
24. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
25. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
26. East Renfrewshire Majority 3718 (6.6%)
27. Leeds North West Majority 2907 (6.7%)
28. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
29. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
30. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
31. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
32. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
33. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
34. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
35. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
36. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
37. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
38. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
39. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
40. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
41. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
42. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
43. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
44. Edinburgh North & Leith Majority 5597 (9.6%)
45. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
46. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
47. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
48. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
49. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
50. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
51. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
52. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
53. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
54. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
55. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
56. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
57. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
58. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
59. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
60. East Lothian Majority 6803 (11.5%)
61. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
62. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)*
63. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
64. Paisley & Renfrewshire South Majority 5684 (12.3%)
65. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
66. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
67. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
68. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
69. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
70. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
71. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
72. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
73. Arfon Majority 3668 (13.6%)
74. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
75. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
76. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
77. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Majority 5599 (14.2%)
78. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)*
79. Brighton, Pavilion Majority 7967 (14.5%)
80. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
81. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
82. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
83. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
84. Aberdeen South Majority 7230 (14.8%)
85. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
86. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
87. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)*
88. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
89. Edinburgh South West Majority 8135 (15.8%)
90. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
91. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
92. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)*
93. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
94. Rutherglen & Hamilton West Majority 9975 (17.4%)
95. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
96. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
97. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
98. Ochil & South Perthshire Majority 10168 (17.6%)
99. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
100. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
101. Paisley & Renfrewshire North Majority 9076 (18%)
102. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)*
103. Lanark & Hamilton East Majority 10100 (18.3%)
104. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
105. Dunfermline & West Fife Majority 10352 (18.6%)
106. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
107. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
108. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Majority 9974 (18.8%)
109. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
110. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
111. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
112. Edinburgh East Majority 9106 (19.3%)
113. Glasgow Central Majority 7662 (19.4%)
114. Airdrie & Shotts Majority 8779 (19.8%)
115. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)*
116. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
117. Stirling Majority 10480 (20.1%)
118. Midlothian Majority 9859 (20.4%)
119. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
120. Linlithgow & Falkirk East Majority 12934 (21%)
121. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
122. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
123. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
124. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Majority 11265 (21.5%)
125. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
Comments - 3,417 Responses on “Labour Target seats”
  1. “There is no national polling evidence of a UKIP unwind… if anything they are a point or two up on their GE share” – the national polls could be wrong of course.

    Or it could simply be by-elections throwing up some more weird results.

  2. Reflecting further on these results and local by-elections generally, I think voter mobilisation/campaign intensity probably explains a lot. I expect quite a large proportion of the turnout is generated by the parties that are bothering knocking on people’s doors/putting leaflets through their doors to remind their voters that the by-election is happening. Plus, if one party bothers and all the rest don’t there must inevitably be some temptation to reward the party that bothered.

  3. There’s probably an element of truth in that, but my impression is that UKIP do just as badly in seats where they are defending, or had previously been in contention. You would envisage that they would work such seats in the event of a by-election.

  4. I think UKIP have only won two council seats in Clacton and Cambridgeshire since the GE unless I’m mistaken.

    They may retain a long term 10-15% core of protest votes in general elections but they don’t seem to have a very sustainable future in local gvt outside favourable pockets of Essex, Kent, Lincolnhire, East Anglia and S Yorkshire.

  5. ANTIOCHIAN

    I would argue that the Tea Party is superfluous with the rise of people like Trump and Cruz in the GOP.

  6. Agreed.. Trump in particular does not like being told what to do and the Tea Party were fractious at their best and prone to having more viewpoints than members. He just wouldn’t tolerate them..

    The Tea Party didnt want any politician spending money on anything and ultimately, in the pork-barrel dependent sections of the US voting public, that destined anyone who was elected with Tea Party blessing to self-annihilate if they stuck to the no-spending principles.

  7. While I imagine certainly grassroots Tea Party supporters like Trump and many will be voting for Trump in the Primaries but from what I’ve heard Cruz has more ties to the Tea Party. It is true in comparison with 2012 the absence of Tea Party candidate like Michelle Bachmann is noticeable.

  8. Cruz is regarded thus far as a religious candidate rather than a fiscal candidate and the Tea Party was mainly a fiscal phenomenon rather that a moral one.

  9. Government has confirmed that the number of MPs will be cut by 50 by the 2020 General Election.

    It also rejected leeway of upto 10% for electorates which MPs proposed.

  10. Hardly new news… they have shown no movement on this since the GE. I thought there might be a bit more backbench pressure on the cut in MPs but the fact that the legislation has already gone through means few are probably thinking about it yet.

  11. Labour *in the lead* in YouGov post-budget poll. LAB 34 CON 33 UKIP 16 LD 6. Follows ICM tie earlier in the week. It does look like things are beginning to shift on the poll front. On past trends, and given the shaky economic news and other difficulties the govt has faced lately, not surprising in the slightest but many, probably myself included, thought LAB could never even get to poll leads under Corbyn and McDonnell.

    One observation I would make is that I detect something of a shift in public opinion on spending cuts, particularly as they relate to welfare. Up to now I think the majority have had little sympathy with the criticism of welfare cuts from Labour/campaign groups/the broader left. They saw the need for spending cuts and in any case thought lots of benefits went to the undeserving. Most people weren’t, and still aren’t, being hit themselves particularly. But after six years people are getting a bit impatient and have become more concerned (rightly in my view) about further cuts to disability benefit etc. and whether the government’s priorities are right.

  12. Also earlier in the month, there was a poll with Labour on 29 up two and Conservatives on 38 down three. While there is a significant difference in the numbers which is because of a different methodology, the change is similar.

  13. YouGov now showing a Labour lead of three… dreadful poll for the Tories all round, with Cameron’s personal ratings also slipping (more now trust Boris on EU). Seems events of recent weeks have done significant damage. Not unusual to see the opposition leading at this stage of the parliament, but given the CON lead was sitting comfortably at around the level it was at the election until a month or so ago this is quite a turnaround. Suggests locals may not be quite as disastrous for Labour as they could have been, though in all probability they will still lose seats as they were further ahead in 2012.

  14. Not sure where the best thread was for this, thought this was as good as any.

    I have a theory which I wonder if other thoughtful psephologists on here support.

    It is that, whilst local elections have always produced somewhat different winning parties to parliamentary elections in the same seats anyway, this might be greatly increased now Brexit has happened. Local issues haven’t changed that much, and similar politics may well be at play as pre-Brexit. OTOH, there are already signs that Brexit and its implications are both an emotive and overriding issue for voters as regards their government nationally, and as such are likely to lead to significantly different swings in different political directions depending on the locality.

    So we could start to see much more commonly a different party in power at local council level to the local MPs for that area.

    Stoke and Copeland will be interesting, though not necessarily conclusive, indicators in this regard.

  15. I actually agree with that tbh

    I can see Remain parties gaining ground in areas like Cambridgeshire and Oxfordshire as well as London while at General Elections these affluent areas still vote Conservative.

  16. By which I mean the Lib Dems!

  17. OK Gloy . . .!

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