Labour Target Seats

These are the hundred and twenty five seats with the lowest percentage majorities over the Labour party. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the Labour in practice, or that they are the seats the Labour party will actually be targetting at the next general election. The Labour party won 232 seats at the last general election, so would need to win another ninety-four seats to secure an overall majority in the House of Commons.

1. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)
2. Gower Majority 27 (0.1%)
3. Croydon Central Majority 165 (0.3%)
4. Vale of Clwyd Majority 237 (0.6%)
5. Bury North Majority 378 (0.8%)
6. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)
7. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Majority 523 (1.1%)
8. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)
9. Brighton, Kemptown Majority 690 (1.5%)
10. Bolton West Majority 801 (1.6%)
11. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)
12. Weaver Vale Majority 806 (1.8%)
13. Bedford Majority 1097 (2.4%)
14. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)
15. Lincoln Majority 1443 (3%)
16. Cardiff North Majority 2137 (4.1%)
17. Peterborough Majority 1925 (4.1%)
18. Sheffield, Hallam Majority 2353 (4.2%)
19. Corby Majority 2412 (4.3%)
20. Waveney Majority 2408 (4.6%)
21. Warrington South Majority 2750 (4.6%)
22. Southampton, Itchen Majority 2316 (5.2%)
23. Keighley Majority 3053 (6.2%)
24. North Warwickshire Majority 2973 (6.3%)
25. Carlisle Majority 2774 (6.5%)
26. East Renfrewshire Majority 3718 (6.6%)
27. Leeds North West Majority 2907 (6.7%)
28. Halesowen & Rowley Regis Majority 3082 (7%)
29. Crewe & Nantwich Majority 3620 (7.3%)
30. Erewash Majority 3584 (7.4%)
31. Hendon Majority 3724 (7.5%)
32. Ipswich Majority 3733 (7.7%)
33. Broxtowe Majority 4287 (8%)
34. Stroud Majority 4866 (8%)
35. Calder Valley Majority 4427 (8.2%)
36. Northampton North Majority 3245 (8.3%)
37. Blackpool North & Cleveleys Majority 3340 (8.4%)
38. Pudsey Majority 4501 (8.8%)
39. Sherwood Majority 4647 (9.1%)
40. Amber Valley Majority 4205 (9.2%)
41. Colne Valley Majority 5378 (9.4%)
42. Hastings & Rye Majority 4796 (9.4%)
43. Bristol North West Majority 4944 (9.5%)
44. Edinburgh North & Leith Majority 5597 (9.6%)
45. Harrow East Majority 4757 (9.7%)
46. High Peak Majority 4894 (9.7%)
47. Stockton South Majority 5046 (9.8%)
48. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)
49. Norwich North Majority 4463 (10.2%)
50. Stevenage Majority 4955 (10.3%)
51. Enfield, Southgate Majority 4753 (10.4%)
52. Cannock Chase Majority 4923 (10.5%)
53. Morecambe & Lunesdale Majority 4590 (10.6%)
54. Nuneaton Majority 4882 (10.6%)
55. Dudley South Majority 4270 (11.2%)
56. Finchley & Golders Green Majority 5662 (11.2%)
57. South Ribble Majority 5945 (11.3%)
58. Worcester Majority 5646 (11.3%)
59. Rossendale & Darwen Majority 5654 (11.5%)
60. East Lothian Majority 6803 (11.5%)
61. South Swindon Majority 5785 (11.7%)
62. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)*
63. Preseli Pembrokeshire Majority 4969 (12.3%)
64. Paisley & Renfrewshire South Majority 5684 (12.3%)
65. Pendle Majority 5453 (12.3%)
66. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)
67. Reading East Majority 6520 (12.9%)
68. Warwick & Leamington Majority 6606 (13%)
69. Scarborough & Whitby Majority 6200 (13%)
70. Aberconwy Majority 3999 (13.3%)
71. Crawley Majority 6526 (13.4%)
72. Vale of Glamorgan Majority 6880 (13.4%)
73. Arfon Majority 3668 (13.6%)
74. Gloucester Majority 7251 (13.7%)
75. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)
76. Reading West Majority 6650 (13.8%)
77. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Majority 5599 (14.2%)
78. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)*
79. Brighton, Pavilion Majority 7967 (14.5%)
80. Chipping Barnet Majority 7656 (14.5%)
81. Stourbridge Majority 6694 (14.5%)
82. Elmet & Rothwell Majority 8490 (14.7%)
83. Milton Keynes South Majority 8672 (14.7%)
84. Aberdeen South Majority 7230 (14.8%)
85. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire Majority 6054 (15%)
86. Camborne & Redruth Majority 7004 (15.2%)
87. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)*
88. Battersea Majority 7938 (15.6%)
89. Edinburgh South West Majority 8135 (15.8%)
90. Redditch Majority 7054 (16%)
91. Gravesham Majority 8370 (16.7%)
92. Dumfries & Galloway Majority 6514 (11.5%)*
93. Milton Keynes North Majority 9753 (16.9%)
94. Rutherglen & Hamilton West Majority 9975 (17.4%)
95. Cleethorpes Majority 7893 (17.5%)
96. Watford Majority 9794 (17.5%)
97. Loughborough Majority 9183 (17.6%)
98. Ochil & South Perthshire Majority 10168 (17.6%)
99. Clwyd West Majority 6730 (17.7%)
100. Shrewsbury & Atcham Majority 9565 (17.7%)
101. Paisley & Renfrewshire North Majority 9076 (18%)
102. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)*
103. Lanark & Hamilton East Majority 10100 (18.3%)
104. Canterbury Majority 9798 (18.4%)
105. Dunfermline & West Fife Majority 10352 (18.6%)
106. Kingswood Majority 9006 (18.7%)
107. Stafford Majority 9177 (18.8%)
108. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath Majority 9974 (18.8%)
109. Harlow Majority 8350 (18.9%)
110. Shipley Majority 9624 (19%)
111. Chingford & Woodford Green Majority 8386 (19.1%)
112. Edinburgh East Majority 9106 (19.3%)
113. Glasgow Central Majority 7662 (19.4%)
114. Airdrie & Shotts Majority 8779 (19.8%)
115. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)*
116. Filton & Bradley Stoke Majority 9838 (20.1%)
117. Stirling Majority 10480 (20.1%)
118. Midlothian Majority 9859 (20.4%)
119. Basingstoke Majority 11063 (20.9%)
120. Linlithgow & Falkirk East Majority 12934 (21%)
121. Bexleyheath & Crayford Majority 9192 (21.1%)
122. Kensington Majority 7361 (21.2%)
123. Rugby Majority 10345 (21.2%)
124. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Majority 11265 (21.5%)
125. Rochford & Southend East Majority 9476 (21.7%)
Comments - 3,587 Responses on “Labour Target seats”
  1. Let’s be fair – the manifesto was hardly Das Kapital. It was actually a pretty good compromise that most of the PLP could get behind.

    Sure, Jeremy’s natural instincts are a fair step to the left of what was in the manifesto. But he wouldn’t be able to get those more radical ideas through parliament, even if he was elected on a thumping majority.

  2. By that argument, I presume you would vote for Hitler if he stood on a moderate manifesto, safe in the knowledge that he wouldn’t be able to get his old extreme ideas through parliament? 🙂

  3. All credit to the man. I would never have thought his stuff would be so resonant and rouse the enthusiasm of voters, but that’s what democracy is about. We tories can’t complain if he knows how to rouse his base and give them belief and motivation and we don’t. We have to raise our game.

    Democracy is a competitive process, that’s why dud leaders have to go. Corbyn would surely have been expected to go if there had been the expected wipeout, so all credit to him for gaining seats for labour in a general election for the first time in 20 years.

  4. He has shown that old fashioned campaigning still works

  5. HH,

    you’re right. there ‘s also the old story they used to say that mass membership was dead and activists didn’t matter. corbyn and momentum have overturned that particular myth.

  6. PC – I’m not sure there’s any evidence of that though.

    In fact Labour people were complaining to me only last week that most of the Momentum lot don’t ever turn up to leaflet or canvass. I realise they are a force on-line and like attending a protest or rally though.

    Plus in both 2010 and 2015, Labour famously beat the Tories 3:1 in terms of activists on the ground and doors knocked.

  7. In Derby North momentum had two campaign days on saturdays over three weeks. The first drew 50 people the second about 100. They had to do their briefing in the car park because not everyone could fit in Unite’s office.

  8. “In fact Labour people were complaining to me only last week that most of the Momentum lot don’t ever turn up to leaflet or canvass.”

    Maybe it’s better that way though. I’m sure the more mild-mannered folk do a better job on the doorstep than the “Tory scum!” brigade.

  9. Sadly there has been a bit of that

  10. Lancs
    I’m afraid your betraying your own allegiances there, I’m ex Momentum so don’t think I have any love for them and prior to the campaign I’d have agreed with you but over the past few weeks they have really stepped up. Most of the new Lab MP’s (some of whom are definite Blairites) have openly thanked the campaign work Momentum did, the Momentum “Find my Marginal” and “Momentum Carpool” Apps where downloaded thousands of times and were incredibly useful, Liverpool Momentum even campaigned heavily for Alison McGovern in Wirral South (chair of Progress) and she has since begrudgingly thanked them for their work. Finally I was only speaking to Pepps on here a few weeks back about how local Momentum groups were campaigning in Crewe and Weaver Vale with little to no help from the national party, as it is we won both seats so I think it has to be said we probably owe our victories there to Momentum, I imagine the story was similar in most every seat Lab gained, HQ fighting a defensive campaign and leaving it to the (presumed deluded) Momentum campaigners to go after marginals.

  11. On the debate about increased youth vote, some polling :
    YouGov also gives figures for the turnout among younger voters, finding that about 58%

    Ipsos Mori estimated that turnout for 18 to 24 year olds was 58% turnout would be a considerable increase on estimated 43% in GE 2015.

    Yougov estimated that among 18- 29 yr olds about 63% for Labour and 22% for the Conservatives, having polled more than 50,000 people online.

    The figure it gave in its poll after the 2015 election was that 36% of 18 to 29 year olds had voted Labour with 32% voting Conservative – if correct that is a huge swing among young voters.

    Lord Ashcroft’s much smaller exit poll puts support for Labour among young people even higher, with 67% of 18 to 24 year olds voting Labour and 18% voting Conservative.

  12. Huh.

    58% turnout is really still not that high, considering it was reportedy 64% in the EUref (after an initial figure of 36% was debunked).

    I am honestly surprised by that figure, I thought youth turnout would be in the 65-70 range.

  13. H. Hemmelig, I respect you as (over a long period) one of the most interesting posters on here, but your post that I noted did in fact say ” following the script of A Very British Coup if it comes down to it”.

    Key plot points include: “the aristocratic Sir Percy Browne, Head of MI5, whose ancestors “unto the Middle Ages” have exercised subtle power behind the scenes”, an attempt to blackmail the PM out of office using forged documents, and, on TV, in the closing credits, the very clear implication that a military coup has been launched against the elected government, because “the powers that be” (to quote you again) cannot accept a democratic outcome they don’t approve of.

    In what way did my earlier comment therefore include hyperbole? I was quoting both you, and the TV drama you referred to. A military coup against an elected PM would indeed be a dictatorship.

    If any of you think that’s a possible outcome, you do indeed think that democracy is a sham.

  14. 64% in the EU referendum was 64% of all registered voters.

    These turnout estimates are turnout estimates of all people, rather than just registered voters. That is the difference, I think.

  15. “I presume you would vote for Hitler if he stood on a moderate manifesto”

    Isn’t there also an old internet meme that the first person to draw a parallel to Hitler is admitting that they have lost the argument?

  16. If so then Trump’s opponents have been losing badly for a long time

  17. ‘Isn’t there also an old internet meme that the first person to draw a parallel to Hitler is admitting that they have lost the argument?’

    Possibly – though if you’re taking life lessons from internet memes then you’ve probably lost more than just the argument..

  18. It’s called Godwin’s Law:

  19. Labour increase by 19% in a council by-election on Gloucestershire:

    Winterbourne (South Gloucestershire) result:
    CON: 47.9% (+1.6)
    LAB: 33.8% (+18.6)
    LDEM: 18.3% (-3.8)

    Conservative HOLD. No UKIP (as prev).

  20. Are Labour expecting a 2018 GE?

    THIS is by London List. 75 PPCS will be selected by Christmas.

    How many of these are Left / Momentum / JC dominated?

    “This is the leaked list of 75 marginal seats in which Labour expects
    to carry out selections before the end of the year.


    Blackpool North
    Bolton West
    Bournemouth East

    Calder Valley
    Camborne and Redruth
    Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire
    Chingford and Woodford Green
    Chipping Barnet
    Cities of London and Westminster
    Clwyd West

    Derbyshire North East


    Filton and Bradley Stoke
    Finchley and Folders Green


    Harrow East
    Hastings and Rye



    Middlesborough South and Cleveland East
    Milton Keynes North
    Milton Keynes South
    Morecambe and Lunesdale
    Morley and Outwood

    Northampton North
    Northampton South
    Norwich North

    Plymouth Moor View

    Reading West
    Ribble South
    Rochford and Southend East
    Rossendale and Darwen

    Scarborough and Whitby
    Shrewsbury and Atcham
    Southampton Itchen
    Stoke South
    Swindon South

    Truro and Falmouth

    Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    Vale of Glamorgan

    Walsall North
    Welwyn Hatfield
    Worthing East and Shoreham
    York Outer…”

  21. Interestingly LL has no word on Scottish selections. I get the point that, in a sense, targetting SNP seats is not going to remove the Conservatives from office, but on the other hand Jeremy Corbyn did do a big tour of Scotland just last month, so it seems like they’re taking Scotland very seriously.

  22. One other important fact to note – most of the selections will be made from all-women shortlists as Labour aims for a 50/50 gender balance in the PLP.

  23. Yes AWS in Harrow East must be infuriating for the 2017 candidate who did very. Lost by only 1700 votes and must have expected to be given another go at it.

    Interesting that nearby marginals Hendon and Finchley & GG are open selections.

  24. Watford and Stevenage won’t be. Hatfield Im not so sure about

  25. Would a prospective male candidate have any grounds to make a legal challenge against the imposition of an AWS?

    Or is it a case of the party being entitled to have its own rules, and anyone challenging it would be seen as trouble and not worth selecting anyway?

    It’s a very regressive stance, indicating that women cannot be selected in merit against men. Which frankly is nonsense.

  26. I wonder what the gender balance of the PLP would be without AWSes. I’d guess about 30 to 35% female – about halfway between the Tories and the post-AWS Labour Party.

  27. Probably about right.

    I don’t think I could be part of a constituency party though that was bound to limiting itself to 50% of the potential candidates, just to satisfy some tick box bureaucrat and a quota.

    The best candidate should be selected… really, the Tories ought to be trying to make hay out of it.

  28. “The Tories ought to be trying to make hay out of it.”

    No, they shouldn’t. This is an issue that only political nerds care about.

  29. This really isn’t the place for arguing about the merits of AWS, which is quite an old argument now as they have been in place for more than 20 years.

    It also isn’t something the Tories can credibly criticise, as they have in many seats had a more watered down version of the same policy since 2005.

    I do believe that the move away from selecting on merit in both main parties has been one of the factors which has reduced the quality of MPs over the past 30 years, though there are many others.

  30. Here’s a useful link to Labour’s target seats post-2017.

    It’s very noticeable just how many more marginals there are now – for example 37 target seats with majorities under 2,000 compared to just 17 such seats after the 2015 GE.

  31. Thanks JE.
    There is an interesting discussion going on, on another politics blog on this question.

    Do voters in council local elections vote on local issues in significant or do the vast majority of the 35 -40%, who do vote simply vote for their party that they would vote for in a GE?

  32. Alex F: I would say that for Labour and the Conservatives, there isn’t all that much split-ticketing, and so the trends are broadly accurate (with the proviso that whoever the Westminster opposition always tends to overperform what they would manage in a general election). However, the Lib Dems and other smaller parties pop up in all sorts of unlikely places in local by-elections, and you can’t read too much into that. And sometimes there will be freak results due to specific local factors.

  33. Have to second all of what Polltroll said all I’d add is that in the case of the Libs in particular their local national split can oftentimes be phenomenal, take somewhere like Easteligh, they totally dominate the local council yet the Westminster seat looks pretty safely Tory these days.

  34. Or where I’m living now in Bedford, the mayor is a Lib Dem but the seat is a classic Con-Lab marginal where the Liberals were weak even before they collapsed nationally in 2015.

  35. The same is true for Watford where the Mayor and Council is run by Lib Dems but the Constitency is a Labour Conservative knife edge. Despite the Lib Dems success in St Albans in 2010 and 2017 they haven’t had an MP in St Albans for a century even though they ran the council during the 90s and the 00s. The Tories were even reduced to 5 councillors.

  36. St Albans was one of very few seats where the Lib Dems moved from third place or lower to second at this election. In fact I believe the only other seat where this happened was Vauxhall.

    This is a somewhat overlooked problem for the Lib Dems. In places where they were not either the incumbent or the obvious challenger, they picked up negligible support. This means that they have target seats for 2022 (or whenever the next election is), but beyond that there isn’t a tranche of seats that they can target over the next three or four electoral cycles to make them winnable.

  37. Polltroll
    “This means that they have target seats for 2022 (or whenever the next election is), but beyond that there isn’t a tranche of seats that they can target over the next three or four electoral cycles to make them winnable”

    If I were a Lib I wouldn’t be worried about that, the Lib Dem brand is still massively tarnished by the coalition, in many quarters its still downright toxic. When (or rather if) the Libs manage to put that episode behind them their support will naturally return to the 14-18% nationally level they were at in the 90’s That level of support nationally will give them a small base of support in most every seat but it will be at different levels, for example in many a seat they’ll only manage 10-15% but in others they’ll manage 25% or so, it will be in the latter that the Libs focus on.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)