Labour Defence List

These are the hundred current Labour seats with the lowest majority in order of their percentage majority. This does not necessarily mean that the top of the list will would be the most vulnerable Labour seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Labour party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Cambridge Majority 599 (1.1%)
8. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
9. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
10. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
11. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
12. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
13. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
14. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
15. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
18. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
19. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
20. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
21. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
22. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
23. Edinburgh South Majority 2637 (5.3%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Burnley Majority 3244 (8.1%)
40. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bermondsey & Old Southwark Majority 4489 (8.8%)
47. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
48. Bristol West Majority 5673 (8.9%)
49. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
52. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
53. Heywood & Middleton Majority 5299 (10.9%)
54. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
55. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
56. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
57. Dagenham & Rainham Majority 4980 (11.6%)
58. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
59. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
60. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
61. Cardiff Central Majority 4981 (12.9%)
62. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
63. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
64. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
65. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
66. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
67. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
68. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
69. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
70. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
71. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
72. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
73. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
74. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
75. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
76. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
77. Tynemouth Majority 8240 (15.4%)
78. Rother Valley Majority 7297 (15.5%)
79. Cardiff West Majority 6789 (15.5%)
80. Norwich South Majority 7654 (15.8%)
81. Nottingham South Majority 6936 (15.9%)
82. Cardiff South & Penarth Majority 7453 (16%)
83. Birmingham, Yardley Majority 6595 (16%)
84. Wolverhampton North East Majority 5495 (16.2%)
85. Stalybridge & Hyde Majority 6686 (16.3%)
86. Stoke-on-Trent Central Majority 5179 (16.6%)
87. Lancashire West Majority 8360 (16.9%)
88. Bradford South Majority 6450 (17.1%)
89. Bradford East Majority 7084 (17.1%)
90. Sedgefield Majority 6843 (17.7%)
91. Bassetlaw Majority 8843 (17.9%)
92. Huddersfield Majority 7345 (18.1%)
93. Llanelli Majority 7095 (18.3%)
94. Ashfield Majority 8820 (18.6%)
95. Birmingham, Selly Oak Majority 8447 (18.7%)
96. Hornsey & Wood Green Majority 11058 (19.1%)
97. Warrington North Majority 8923 (19.6%)
98. Swansea West Majority 7036 (20%)
99. Brent North Majority 10834 (20.8%)
100. Leicester West Majority 7203 (20.9%)
Comments - 461 Responses on “Labour Defence”
  1. True.

    After all registering without voting reduces turnout, so it would have been even higher if those extra registrations hadn’t bothered.

  2. Labour apparently is working on the assumption of falling to just 140 seats. If so a few seats not on this list will possibly fall like Derby South or Sunderland central

  3. Source?

    It always fascinates me and gets my mind thinking how the internal party machine of the major parties react to election developments as they come along. Interesting seeing how Thatcher became almost completely unhinged from Wobbly Thursday in 1987. Would love to know what Labour and the Conservatives are thinking now!

  4. Another danger for Labour is they rack up votes where they don’t need them and shed them in areas they do (similar to what happened with Miliband but exasperated further). The types of people enthused by Corbyn seem to be almost to the person:

    a)Middle class leftist ‘metropolitan’ types
    b)Young leftists/students
    c)Deprived ethnic minorities primarily Muslims.

    These groups are disproportionately packed into seats Labour already hold by large majorities and are absent from most marginals. This along with a collapsing UKIP vote has the potential to spell disaster even if Labour’s national vote share does hold up.

  5. There was an article in the Guardian today suggesting exactly this:

  6. The tories are ahead of labour in England, Scotland and Wales. Intuitively that suggests a huge majority to me. Thatcher in her pomp never enjoyed leads over labour in all three nations of the island of great britain

  7. Depends on how the votes are distributed. Tories lead Labour in England in 2005 but despite losing England Labour still won the election

  8. “Depends on how the votes are distributed. Tories lead Labour in England in 2005 but despite losing England Labour still won the election”

    Of course it’s about distribution of votes, it’s just an intuition that’s all. Labour being behind in all three countries is surely without precedent, that’s why i think the result could surprise on the downside for labour, that’s all. This isn’t a rigorous argument. It’s not logic, that’s why i call it intuition.

  9. ”Depends on how the votes are distributed. Tories lead Labour in England in 2005 but despite losing England Labour still won the election”

    That’s because Tony Blair had outraged the groups mentioned above: ‘metropolitan’ leftists, student and Muslims but the seats were so Labour this was still not enough to lose the seats in which they are packed. But at the same time he was doing rather well and still not that unpopular with the skilled working class that inhabit most marginals. Thus Blair in 2005 efficiently distributed Labour’s vote, the type of strategy Labour is going for this time is a reversal of the Blair 2005 strategy, appealing to the groups Blair p*ssed off whilst alienated the voters that handed him victory, and thus will likely lead to inefficient vote distribution.

  10. “But at the same time he was doing rather well and still not that unpopular with the skilled working class that inhabit most marginals.”

    From my own recollection, that’s over-egging it.

    Blair was pretty unpopular in 2005 even amongst those voters, but most people were doing OK and trusted that Labour had abolished boom and bust etc.

    A great counterfactual is whether Blair would have won in 2009/10 had there been no financial crisis and had he not stepped down for Brown. Pretty sure he could have. Basically, Brown + the financial crisis are what destroyed New Labour.

  11. It’s possible but I think it was pretty clear by 2007 that Blair was toxic with most voters. Maybe not the poisonous extent that he is now, but definitely a tarnished figure. Besides, even way before Brown became leader and the financial crash happened, the Tories were leading Labour pretyy comfortably.

    I suppose we’ll never know…

  12. Peter C – true (if you meant in General Elections).

    There are 4 polls where Thatcher enjoyed leads in England, Wales & Scotland, but you’re right that the closest she got in a GE was 1983:

    Con 46%
    Lab 27%
    SDP/All 26%

    Lab 35%
    Con 28%
    SDP 25%
    SNP 11%

    Lab 38%
    Con 31%
    SDP/All 23%
    PC 8%

    Clearly Labour have improved in England (although mainly London), but declined in Scotland & Wales. Also less than 1% voted for Others back then whereas upto 10% now do so.

  13. HH is right re 2005.

    It’s often forgotten but Howard achieved a huge 10% swing to Cons from Labour amongst the DEs [the ‘are you thinking what we’re thinking’ campaign was widely mocked re immigration etc but was effective amongst pensioners and unskilled workers] and 4% amongst C2s.

    It’s why after when Prescott predicted a majority of 100+ around midnight, but then the Putney gain was announced that a couple of Labour people thought there might even be a hung Parliament. But of course the large swings were very few and far between on the night and Blair’s vote distribution and the boundaries resulted in a majority of 60.

  14. Lancs observer ,

    Very interesting stats re. ’83, the first general election I actually remember. The Tory vote was very efficient largely because of the sdp gaining many vote but commensurately very few seats.

    Funnily enough the house was exactly the same size , 650 seats, as it will be after June 8th. Tories 397 seats with a majority of 144.

    All this is familiar. What isn’t stressed enough is the fact that labour got 209 seats. Very few people think labour will get over 200 seats this time. They are starting from a lower base for a start as they had 261 seats going into the 83 election (adjusted to take account of different boundaries, the house elected in 79 only had 635 members), while the conservatives had 359 on a like to like basis (they actually got 339).

    83 was a great year for the Tories but the boundary changes in the new house obscured the fact that they, in like for like terms, only won about 40 seats net.

    If the 79 election had been fought on 83 boundaries the Tories would have won about 359 seats, they ended up with 397. labour on a similar basis lost about 50 seats. This is roughly where the polls are this time a greater proportion of those lost labour seats will fall to the Tories, and labour, largely because of their collapse in Scotland in 2015, are starting from a much lower base. This is likely to be a far worse defeat than 1983, if you measure seats lost as a % of seats held before the dissolution of parliament.

    The next election is also more likely than not going to be in 2021, since the fixed term parliament act is being repealed. I don’t frankly see how labour can be a majority party in the UK Parliament in the next 20 years.

  15. I agree it will be in 2021 as well unless the polls are tight enough that there is chance of the Torries losing their majority then it will be 2022 if the new act that replaces FPTA has five year terms (cant go back to just the previous act).

  16. “the fixed term parliament act is being repealed.”

    Is there a Conservative pledge to repeal it?

  17. Yes.

  18. Labour Uncut- the first website to predict how bad 2015 would be for Labour compared to the polls, is predicting at least 91 seat loses and says canvassing is very bad for Labour.

  19. Labour Uncut for as long as it has existed has always predicted an upcoming electoral test for Lab will be an unmitigated disaster. On some occasions they were right, more often than not they were massively pessimistic if not out and out wrong.

    My opinion of Lab Uncut wont change until they write an article at some future electoral test saying that “Lab have a very good chance of winning, things on the ground look good” which to my knowledge they have never ever done.

  20. I have to agree. Some of those figures and reasoning look simply fanciful, and I’m a Tory!

    For example, the notion of 10 gains in London is utter rubbish. Even when the Tories were polling with 25%+ leads I didn’t think they’d win that many, certainly not in places like Erith and Thamesmead like the site suggests!

  21. Ladbrokes currently re-assessing their constituency odds- I guess after last nights polls. Always like to keep an eye on them.

    I had a little flutter on some constituencies with the theory that semi Labour Northern heartlands would not be as bad for Labour as expected (Chorley, Darlington, Hartlepool) and that Lib Dems would struggle in some of their Tory marginals.

    So far based on the betting odds the Lib Dem bets look a good one but if anything the Lab odds have been lengthening.

    One thing I wanted to ask people is surely there must be an element of insider dealing on this? If you were closely involved with the Labour/Tory campaign in Chorley or the Lib Dem/Tory campaign in Kingston wouldn’t you already have a fair idea of how the cookie was going to crumble and would this be likely to reflect on the odds?

  22. I put a flutter on Tulip Siddiq because i think that’ll be a surprise lab hold

  23. Shevii
    “One thing I wanted to ask people is surely there must be an element of insider dealing on this?”

    To put it bluntly no, its often pointed out that people are not capable of removing their partisan/optimistic specs re the chances of the party they support and that frankly applies doubly so if you are intimately involved in the campaign.

  24. I would be interested to hear Plopwellian Tory’s views on the last few days’ polling. He seems to have gone a bit quiet.

  25. Shevii – yes and no.

    Remember that the number of bets don’t reflect the odds, it’s the amount wagered.

    So in the EU Ref a lot on here kept saying Remain must win cos of the odds – but we now know that that was largely due to large sums staked on Remain in the City.

    However I did point out at the time that from oddschecker we knew that of the number of bets placed they were almost equal in number for Leave and Remain so those betting were actually right. It was mainly those who placed large bets who were wrong.

  26. The thing with remain/leave is that probably no-one had a clear idea being a nationwide thing with different areas reporting different things and unknown turnout variations.

    But in individual constituencies someone must have a better clue and maybe word gets around a bit more. We always get a few posts after an election from people on here saying “I saw that coming”.

    Trouble is that any-one giving information at this stage on a forum probably has a “winning here” agenda to promote. That’s why I wondered if it was just mugs like me betting on instinct or odds on individual constituencies reflecting a bit more local knowledge of the campaign and canvassing returns.

    Some of the ones I mentioned really seemed marginal on UNS and yet you can get odds that give you a fair bit back.

    Are people actually putting serious money on these individual constituencies that would shift odds or are they mainly people like me throwing a few pounds around for a bit of excitement?

  27. I think they could be in with a shot of losing 70, but I’d expect it to end up in the mid-40s or so, maybe even a bit less.

  28. I have just looked fairly randomly at a couple of seats Labour are defending. They appear to be well ahead tin Easling and Acton. They are just ahead in North East Derbsyhire. Newcastle Under Lyme is a “toss up”, but Labour seem to be just ahead.

    It seems to be that the seats LAbour just lost in 2015 are going both ways; whilst Labour is doig reasonably well at holiding the seats they narrowly won in 2015.

    All this is according to YouGove estimates, and I am aware that people are posting that these have their limitations.

    It appears that Labour are picking up a few seats, probably enough to prevent the Conservatves from having a majority; but perhaps not even enough to make Labour the largest party.

  29. I hope I can be excused for a brief moment of self promotion on the eve of polling day, its fairly rare that I predict something correctly and even more so when such a prediction goes against the grain of collective opinion but (unless the polls are unfathomably wrong) I do appear to have called something right.

    Well over a year ago (back when Lab was polling appallingly) the consensus amongst peeps here was that this was just the tip of the iceberg for Lab, that the public were hardly paying attention and when an actual campaign started and they began to focus on how much of a terrorist sympathising Marxist loon Corbyn was (aided by the supposed secret dossier the media were compiling and preparing to unleash) his polling would dip even further

    At the time I called that out as probably wrong, I argued that the media had in no ways been going easy on JC and had probably already spent all the ammo they have on him, and indeed throughout this campaign all the smears by the press have been the same re-hashed stories they’ve been spewing since the moment he became Lab leader, nothing new, no secret recording of JC plotting to assassinate the Queen etc. As for the public perception of JC I argued that peeps here were right to point out the public were not paying a huge amount of attention and that was to Corbyn’s detriment not his benefit, the public were being drip fed a constant stream of negative headlines on Corbyn but were not paying enough attention to see the other side of the story, I argued that when the campaign began properly and they began to focus they’d see Corbyn and his policies for what they were and not what they were being portrayed as and consequently his ratings could only improve. And so I appear to be vindicated on that front, over the course of the campaign the average Tory lead over Lab has been cut in half and Corbyn’s own approval ratings have risen in excess of 30 points.

    At the end of the day though I still think the Tories will win comfortably, I just wanted to point out that I was the lone voice here who claimed things could only get better for Lab during the campaign and I appear to have called it right. Anywho shameless self promotion over 🙂

  30. FS – if you believe Labour are ahead in Newc-under-Lyne (or indeed any of several Staffs seats) you could indeed make a lot of money.

  31. Rivers10 – if you believe that to be true (I don’t: Labour have simply attracted some Green & LD support and not Tories to narrow the 2 horse race) and JC has had a good campaign, does that mean he’ll therefore take responsibility for the outcome?

    That’s the one Q no-one from HQ would answer from several national journalists last night.

    Or will they have a day off and then revert to blaming the media and that it’s all been the fault of some kind of Jewish conspiracy?

  32. Rivers10: fair play in sticking by your beliefs – in fact I’m rather less certain than you are of a Tory majority at this point! Nonetheless you must admit the Conservatives have had an awful campaign and that has probably helped Labour more than anything they have done themselves.

  33. ”All this is according to YouGove estimates, and I am aware that people are posting that these have their limitations.”

    They more than have their limitations they are completely junk. Even if you believe the 42-38 split the results will look very different to the figures YouGov has seemingly pulled out of mid air.

  34. Rivers- I think it’s more the Tories and the Lib Dems have run absolutely disastrous campaigns as opposed to any strength that Corbyn has. If you foresaw their campaigns being as abysmal as they have been then fair play but I don’t think that was something many people saw coming.

    As for the IRA it is having an effect but perhaps not so much on the Labour vote. But it is holding the Tory vote together and as I said on another thread the ‘vote against Corbyn’ is bringing home voters who dislike May/been alienated by the Tories for whatever reason (Brexit, Tory campaign, May, ‘dementia tax’ etc.). If Labour had a more amenable leader I think given how bad the Tories campaign has been/how weak May has been you would have won.

    But I think final judgement is best reserved for Friday morning.

  35. True, we’re not electing a mate.

    As I think HH reminded us, polls showed many voters who disliked Maggie voted for her Party.

    Equally I know many voters will still vote Labour even though they hold diametrically opposed views to JC, JMc on immigration, crime and so on but that habit hasn’t eroded everywhere.

  36. “…the figures YouGov has seemingly pulled out of mid air.”

    YouGov have provided a detailed explanation of their methodology. The weakness which they acknowledge is that it will not take account of local factors which did not affect the result in 2015- I guess an example of this might be Kate Hoey’s supposed unpopularity in Vauxhall.

    Nevertheless it does provide some idea of the differing swings in different parts of the country. And with a sample of over 55,000 it should at least be able to identify both the overall picture and the overall regional picture with some accuracy.

  37. “FS – if you believe Labour are ahead in Newc-under-Lyne (or indeed any of several Staffs seats) you could indeed make a lot of money”


  38. You also believed this :

    How many do you think Labour will lose of these seats?
    April 21st, 2017 at 4:56 am
    Plopwellian Tory
    April 21st, 2017 at 6:21 am

  39. Fair enough.

    Plopwellian Tory
    CON 390
    LAB 180
    SNP 42
    LDEM 12
    June 8th, 2017 at 8:43 am

  40. …and if that wasn’t bad enough you even predicted a Con gain in Hove which Labour won with a 32% majority.

    Plopwellian Tory
    CON gain from LAB: City of Chester, Halifax, Wirral W, Dewsbury, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Wolvs. SW, Barrow & Furness, Hove, Enfield N, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Walsall N, Wrexham, NE Derbyshire, Wakefield, Middlesbrough S & E Cleveland, Copeland, Stoke South, Eltham, Bridgend, B’ham, Northfield, Blackpool S, Darlington, Bishop Auckland, Harrow W, Scunthorpe, Clwyd S, S’oton, Test, Chorley, Hyndburn, Newport W, Coventry NW, Coventry S, Mansfield, Stoke N. Gedling.
    June 5th, 2017 at 7:45 pm

  41. Actually I can’t find anyone else who predicted CON short of overall majority:

    CON 324 LAB 251 LD 10 SNP 43. CON MAJ: NONE
    CON 364 LAB 211 LD 12 SNP 41. CON MAJ: 78
    CON c. 360 Lab c. 210 LD 9 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 70
    Con 348 Lab 225 LD 9 SNP 45. CON MAJ: 50
    CON 384 Lab 190 LD 5

    Twitter Predictions: CON MAJ
    @MattSingh_ 98
    @TSEofPB 106
    @paulmotty 82
    @IainDale 122
    @Election4castUK ([email protected]) 82
    Nigel Marriott 1002/ Predictions:
    @LordAshcroft (2017 MRP) 78
    @ElectoralCalculus (Martin Baxter) 72
    @RoadTo326 122
    @electiondata 124
    @DPJHodges 1103/ Predictions:
    @Andrew_Lilico 158
    @KeiranPedley 60 (midpt)
    @JantaLipinsky 80
    @MSmithsonPB 56 (midpt)
    @colinrtalbot 744/ Predictions:
    @StephenDFisher (combined) 66
    Fisher (polls-based) 48
    @GoodwinMJ (implied) 80
    @britainelects 60″

    Posted 8th June

  42. ” If you make predictions as often as I do some are bound to be off beam. ”

    Don’t flatter yourself.

    That list shows 6 out of 36 right for your Lab gains from Con. If you make predictions as often as you do, it is inevitable that some will be correct.

  43. I think people should stop laying into Plop, yes he did ramp Tory prospects and I certainly hope he learns from this as once again he has an almighty dollop of egg on his face but at the end of the day he’s been no worse than most of the pundits who clutter up our TV screens, newspaper pages and websites yet most peeps will still cling onto their every word going forward. Also as I pointed out a few weeks back Plop wasn’t even the worst culprit for Tory ramping. Several peeps here predicted Tory wins in Wallasey, Greenwich, Sunderland Central, Nottingham North, Sefton Central, Torfaen and Brent North amongst other seats. Plop at least had the sense to call that out as bullcrap and I distinctly recall him doing so.

    I just repeat the old saying “a week is a long time in politics”
    Plus another line I stole from a video game but its very appropriate “Nothing is true, everything is permitted”

    With that in mind people should just be very careful when they make predictions.

  44. 1. Posters shouldn’t be making long term predictions or even ones 7 weeks out from polling day (not these days anyway although you could have got away with it pre 2014)

    2. No one should be quoting those predictions back at a poster.

  45. Quite honestly, if the answer is Tory or Labour, even random prediction by flipping a coin could be right 50% of the time. To only get 6 out of 36 right, and refuse to hear criticism, goes a bit far.

  46. We made predictions based on polls, which with only a few exceptions turned out yet again to be hideously wrong. And wrong in the opposite direction to last time.

  47. Yes. And even the doorstep was wrong. A Labour friend of mine who had worked in Ilford North was convinced even two weeks ago Wes Streeting would lose narrowly but it turned out to be held by 9000 majority and that from his day in Eltham was convinced it fall to the Torries easily. Others were laughing at the Idea of a Labour Gain in Brighton Kempstown.
    A couple got it right – One experienced campaigner in Swansea got the Labour Majoirity in Gower accurate and another predicted only Stoke South would fall of the Stoke seats.

  48. True. However, those of us that looked at the data UNDERLYING the polls AND smelt the coffee / listened to the anecdotes, were a lot closer with our final predictions.

    Some ‘experts’ did go to a lot of trouble on their analysis of the underlying data, but DIDN’T smell the coffee otherwise and therefore maintained the wrong assumption to the last regarding turnout of the young – leading to their almost universally wrong predictions of medium to v large Con majorities.

  49. Deepthroat’s prediction once again was excellent.

  50. ……and some people apparently just looked at the polls they most liked (the ones showing the biggest Tory lead) and then made endless pronouncements as though they were an oracle – only to pass the buck when proved wrong.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)