Labour Defence List

These are the hundred current Labour seats with the lowest majority in order of their percentage majority. This does not necessarily mean that the top of the list will would be the most vulnerable Labour seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Labour party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Cambridge Majority 599 (1.1%)
8. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
9. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
10. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
11. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
12. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
13. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
14. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
15. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
18. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
19. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
20. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
21. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
22. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
23. Edinburgh South Majority 2637 (5.3%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Burnley Majority 3244 (8.1%)
40. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bermondsey & Old Southwark Majority 4489 (8.8%)
47. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
48. Bristol West Majority 5673 (8.9%)
49. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
52. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
53. Heywood & Middleton Majority 5299 (10.9%)
54. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
55. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
56. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
57. Dagenham & Rainham Majority 4980 (11.6%)
58. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
59. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
60. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
61. Cardiff Central Majority 4981 (12.9%)
62. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
63. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
64. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
65. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
66. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
67. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
68. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
69. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
70. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
71. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
72. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
73. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
74. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
75. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
76. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
77. Tynemouth Majority 8240 (15.4%)
78. Rother Valley Majority 7297 (15.5%)
79. Cardiff West Majority 6789 (15.5%)
80. Norwich South Majority 7654 (15.8%)
81. Nottingham South Majority 6936 (15.9%)
82. Cardiff South & Penarth Majority 7453 (16%)
83. Birmingham, Yardley Majority 6595 (16%)
84. Wolverhampton North East Majority 5495 (16.2%)
85. Stalybridge & Hyde Majority 6686 (16.3%)
86. Stoke-on-Trent Central Majority 5179 (16.6%)
87. Lancashire West Majority 8360 (16.9%)
88. Bradford South Majority 6450 (17.1%)
89. Bradford East Majority 7084 (17.1%)
90. Sedgefield Majority 6843 (17.7%)
91. Bassetlaw Majority 8843 (17.9%)
92. Huddersfield Majority 7345 (18.1%)
93. Llanelli Majority 7095 (18.3%)
94. Ashfield Majority 8820 (18.6%)
95. Birmingham, Selly Oak Majority 8447 (18.7%)
96. Hornsey & Wood Green Majority 11058 (19.1%)
97. Warrington North Majority 8923 (19.6%)
98. Swansea West Majority 7036 (20%)
99. Brent North Majority 10834 (20.8%)
100. Leicester West Majority 7203 (20.9%)
Comments - 461 Responses on “Labour Defence”
  1. HH is right. Labour’s future is looking pretty dire whatever happens.

  2. The amount of money spent on leaflets, and the amount of activists flooded into constituencies, is only relevant if the messages that money pays for / those activists gives, are what voters feel is relevant to them otherwise it doesn’t necessarily influence their vote.

    I observed this play out in 2015 where ultra-marginals looked dead cert Lab gains, and people were being nice on the doorstep – but the message proved later that it wasn’t cutting any ice – esp not against the risk of a SNP-Lab government.

  3. Looking at the list above it is conceivable that Labour could lose any one of these seats. I think that there needs to be another 20 or 30 on this list

  4. I could see Labour losing up to eighty seats if the Conservatives stay this popular in the long term.

  5. Agreed – but it’s that big ‘if’ isn’t it?

  6. It seems less likely that Labour will lose as many seats as the TV media now legally has to let Corbyn speak,

  7. Given the past speculation about Corbyn/Momentum headbangers being parachuted into safe seats along with all the nonsense about deselections I felt it relevant to look at the political make-up of Labs likely new intake. By likely I mean the seats where Lab is clearly the very firm favourite to win.

    Lewisham West and Penge=Ellie Reeves

    Barnsley East=Steph Peacock

    Soft Left
    Leigh=Jo Platt
    Blaydon=Liz Twist
    Rochdale=Tony Lloyd
    Hull West and Hessle=Emma Hardy

    Far Left (although interestingly no Corbynistas, rather these seem to fit into the category I’ve mentioned before of the non Corbynista Left)
    Liverpool Walton=Dan Carden
    Durham North West=Laura Pidcock

    Unknown political orientation, please enlighten me if anyone has further info as to where these guys might be placed.
    Nottingham North=Alex Norris
    Oxford East=Anneliese Dodds
    Slough=Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi

    This doesn’t appear to bode well for the Corbyn project in that he has failed to get any of his allies into parliament yet at the same time this hardly bodes well for the moderates who haven’t really gained much either. The biggest winners this time round (like in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2015) appears to be the soft left. Thus the one conclusion one can draw from this is that it probably increases Keir Starmer’s chances of becoming the next Lab leader, he certainly won’t be short of nominations.

  8. ”This doesn’t appear to bode well for the Corbyn project in that he has failed to get any of his allies into parliament yet at the same time this hardly bodes well for the moderates who haven’t really gained much either.”

    Well it perhaps bodes well for the Labour party surviving in tact. If Labour goes down to a crushing defeat and Corbyn or one of his cronies is leader and there is no attempt to move back to the centre a la Neil Kinnock in the aftermath of ’83 the party could well break apart.

    I also heard that Liverpool Walton CLP was extremely unhappy about Dan Cardin being foisted apon them by the NEC. Apparently McCluskey bullied the NEC into parachuting in Cardin, who is one of his minions, by threatening them over funding.

    Also Rivers I’m wondering if your friends/contacts in momentum are resigned to losing this election because the ones I know (even ones who are very clever) are still deluding themselves that Corbyn is an electoral messiah and the media are making up he’s extremely unpopular. But from what I understand of Labour’s strategy though (probably a smart one) it’s throw everything at saving the 5,000 to 10,000 majority seats while send Corbyn off on a wild goose chase to unwinnable Tory held seats.

  9. Pepps
    “and there is no attempt to move back to the centre a la Neil Kinnock in the aftermath of ’83 the party could well break apart”
    I see where your coming from but the consensus amongst many appears to be that the issue is Corbyn and that the policies for the most part go down well, I’ve even had conversations with VERY Blairite councillors and MP’s who begrudgingly admit that fact, part of the reason I think the soft left are so confident of inheriting the Lab party, they have the far lefts radicalism without the incompetence…

    “I also heard that Liverpool Walton CLP was extremely unhappy about Dan Cardin being foisted upon them by the NEC”
    I’ve got close friends in the Walton CLP who I intend to ask about this very issue but reading between the lines I think this might be getting overblown by Andersons giant ego. I even heard talk that Carden was actually the compromise candidate since Corbyn’s people wanted Katy Clarke, alas Anderson and his allies where never going to take kindly to not being selected regardless of who was picked instead. I imagine this will all blow over. Joe Anderson is a real marmite character, people either love him or hate him, I imagine though that the majority of the CLP (who perhaps are not pleased with having Carden hoisted upon them) are just glad they dodged the bullet that was Joe Anderson.

    “Also Rivers I’m wondering if your friends/contacts in momentum are resigned to losing this election”
    The ones I speak to are but I intentionally do my best to avoid the truly nutty ever since Copeland so I honestly don’t know the opinion of the true loyalists. A big group was down in Crewe the other day though so that perhaps tells you all you need to know.

    “But from what I understand of Labour’s strategy though (probably a smart one) it’s throw everything at saving the 5,000 to 10,000 majority seats while send Corbyn off on a wild goose chase to unwinnable Tory held seats”
    I’ve heard the same, its probably accurate.

  10. Annaleise Doods is soft left I think.
    Alex Norris backed Owen Smith last year.
    Laura Pidcock i would describe as Corbynista as she was involved in both his leadership campaigns.
    Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi I think backed Owen Smith as well last year.

  11. BM11
    Thanks for the info though I don’t think much can be drawn from who backed Owen Smith, Lab MP’s like Louise Haigh, Jo Stevens, John Cryer and Catherine West all backed Owen Smith yet their all definitely on the left, I think all that can be drawn from an Owen Smith supporter is that their not a Corbynista.

    Interesting re Pidcock, I knew she was very left wing but didn’t realise she was involved with Corbyn’s leadership campaigns.

  12. spread betting…

    Sell Buy
    Conservative Seats 399 – 405
    Labour Seats 152 – 158
    SNP Seats 44 – 47
    Liberal Democrat Seats 16 – 19
    Green Seats 0.75 – 1.75
    UKIP Seats 0.1 – 1

    Latest from spread betting… con perhaps a little too high, but this is what current polls are suggesting. one would hope, if one were a labour supporter, that labour could get more than 158! liberals too high in my opinion.

  13. The ones who backed Owen Smith last year probably wouldn’t nominate McDonnell and would be a bit more hesitant in Nominating Long-Bailey or Rayner.

  14. Yes, that is odd re the LDs esp when bookies only offer Evens for them to win fewer than 9!

  15. Those seat totals look about right to me – if there’s one that’s a little out, perhaps it is the SNP who I still think can get to 50 seats with a good campaign. But I’m probably falling prey to a milder version of the same unthinkability bias that flummoxed us all two years ago.

  16. With just under 4 weeks to go, a couple of trends worth highlighting which impact heavily on Labour’s attempts to hold these seats.

    It is very obvious that UKIP are not putting up candidates in quite a few Labour marginal – and not so marginal – seats. Whether this reflects disorganisation, lack of finance or a “regressive alliance” (possibly elements of all 3!), this is really going to cause Labour great problems. If the polls are correct the former UKIP vote is breaking heavily in favour of the Conservatives. In seats where there was previously a large UKIP vote and now there is no candidate, Labour’s lead is effectively sharply reduced before we even get to the impact of any voters abandoning Labour.

    I have also been struck by several posters on here noting that the signs of an election in their local areas are thin on the ground. Again this is another warning sign for Labour. Sorry to bang on again about differential turnout but I believe many disgruntled Labour supporters may resist the temptation to vote Conservative, choosing instead to sit on the sofa and not getting round to vote at all. I think a low interest, low turnout GE favours heavily the Conservatives.

    Frankly, if Labour wants to stay above 190 seats, they need to change the narrative of the election PDQ. I have little confidence that they have ability to do so.

  17. I suspect it will be all three. I too think many people will stay home. The impact of that I am not sure, typically it’s the young and the working class who stay home both of which traditionally vote Labour. However, it appears that student registration has soared in this election that doesn’t mean they will all go out and vote though many have already mentioned that students will be going home in June. Teresa May seems to have won over the working class but will they be any more likely to vote now than they were before? Lastly some marginals the UKIP vote broke something like 3 Labour voters for every Tory. Many think UKIP are a gateway drug to the Tories but for many who hated Thatcher and the like are they more likely just to stay home.

  18. Re what Matt mentions about UKIP being a gateway drug to the Tories YouGov actually did a poll on that recently, apparently very few people (according to the poll) are going from Lab to UKIP to Tory. Rather the issue is the kippers that came from the Tories are mostly going back while the Red kippers are mostly sticking with UKIP or not voting at all.

  19. Hard to test this as mant people don’t accurately recall their past votes but I expect a very common pattern is Lab 97-05 > Con 10 > UKIP 15 > Con 17.

    I.e. few switching from UKIP to Con will have voted Lab lately, but to win majorities Lab need their votes.

  20. I agree voter churn is difficult to measure. However, the evidence from both the polls to date and the May 4th elections does however suggest an overall net movement from UKIP to the Conservatives.

    There is little evidence that Labours is to date benefitting from UKIPs decline and that seems logical as Labour voters who switched to UKIP in 2015 are unlikely to warm to many of Corbyn’s policy positions.

    The position where there is no UKIP candidate at all is probably most interesting. What do former Labour voters who voted UKIP in 15 do? : return home, switch to the Conservatives – who are effectively offering UKIP lite policies – or just choose the sofa? My gut feeling is that the first option is probably the least likely – in which case you could be looking at larger swings in these seats against Labour than might be the case if there still was a UKIP candidate.

  21. Polling companies use previous voting intentions I believe to measure churn rather than asking people how they voted last time. Almost every company produces a table of how 2015 voters are voting this time round

  22. On disenfranchised UKIP supporters:

    Many 2015 UKIP voters were probably DNV in 2010, but Lab up to 2005.
    If they discover there is no UKIP candidate in their area before polling day, then they are likely to revert to DNV.
    If they only discover they have no UKIP candidate when they actually get to the polling station, they will probably vote Con.

    Either way, UKIP not standing will hurt Lab.

  23. Of this list I think the following are most likely to have smaller swings:

    City of Chester (first-time incumbency + university)
    Ealing C&A (first-time incumbency, Remainy London seat, not sure how well the Tories American candidate will go down)
    Ynys Mon (This seat often comes down to personal votes)
    Wirral West (general trend away from Con here)
    Hampstead & K (Cons may struggle in heavily Remain seat)
    Westminster N (ditto H&K + historically a low swing seat)
    Edinburgh S (Unionist tactical voting)
    Tooting (first-time incumbency × Remainy seat where Tories might struggle)
    Gedling (strong Lab performances here over recent years, including locals the other week)
    Chorley (Lindsay Hoyle running a very personalised campaign)
    Wirral South (general trend away from Con)
    Exeter (university seat)
    Hammersmith (Remainy London seat where Cons may struggle)
    York Central (university seat)
    Leeds NE (general trend away from Con)
    Norwich South (demographics increasingly bad for Con)

    Of course, in not all of these cases will a smaller swing than the national swing be enough to save the seat. And there are likely to be bigger than average swings in seats not even on this list that might bring them into play.

  24. I predict Labour will lose between 55 to 95 of the seats on this list and still a few more further down the list.

  25. Interesting stuff, Jack.

    I would add Hove and Ilford North to the list of low swings because both are trending to Labour quite strongly. Probably not enough to save the seats though.

    One that I think Labour might just save against a national swing of 5 or 6% is Southampton Test. The 2015 swing to Labour there suggested that it might be moving their way, albeit not very strongly.

  26. In the cases of Ilford N and Enfield N the Brexit results were quite balanced and so this time I think they might swing roughly in line with the national trend.

  27. A friend told me yesterday that from what he’s heard hove is as safe as houses but don’t hold me to that

  28. In Ealing C and York C Lab also have the added benefit that the Greens aren’t standing and have backed the Lab incumbent, that probably won’t make much of a difference in Ealing C but in York C the Greens got 10% which isn’t to be sniffed at in what otherwise might have been a close contest.

    Hampstead has the added spanner that the Tory candidate is apparently a Brexiter which frankly has to be one of the stupidest decisions in this election so far, if Lab (and indeed the Libs) play that issue right it could haunt the Tories in what was one of the most pro Remain parts of the country.

    Re Southampton Test if anyone can hold it for Lab its Alan Whitehead who has been very active in Southampton politics for decades and probably has a decent personal vote.

  29. The Tory was a remainer in Hampstead I think. I suspect thats why she won the nomination over other candidates who were Brexit voters.

  30. I heard from a lot of people she was. She isn’t. That’s on me.

  31. She is a remainer but she wasn’t as brash about it as the incumbent

  32. Jack Sheldon –

    I’d agree with that. Living in Leeds myself it is very hard to foresee Leeds North East falling to the Tories. It is a very multicultural constituency and was estimated to vote Remain by a margin of 25% (62 to 37). The Tories don’t have much ground here.

    York Central as well is rather ‘metropolitan’ and very Remainy, though not multicultural at all.

  33. @ BM11

    I did a run through (actually doing a spreadsheet for what difference that makes) and came to 42 Lab losses.

    This was based on Lab standing still and more or less all the UKIP vote going to Tories plus some judgment on three way marginals. In all honesty, despite my own political bias, I think I was being generous to the Tories.

    Obviously if Labour does end up with 29% and not close to the 31% they got last time then this throws the figures out. As it stands they don’t look too far off the result in 2015.

    I’m wondering if one thing that people are missing on the UNS is that a lot of this UKIP to Tory swing will be piling up votes in seats the Tories already hold.
    I personally think the Tories look good for a majority of about 100- beyond this it gets really tricky for them on current polling figures.

  34. Would you be kind enough to share that spreadsheet with us?

  35. Trinity Mirror’s poll/survey suggests both Labour & Tory %s will increase on 2015 in the North West.

    But in almost all other regions it shows Labour down.

  36. Interesting. “The North West” is quite a varied region – I doubt Merseyside & Greater Manchester will behave in the same way as Lancashire & Cumbria.

    How big is the survey?

  37. @ Matt Wilson

    So on the basis of a Labour 31% (which is obviously open to debate both on whether they are on 31% at the moment and whether the polls are overestimating Labour again) and 2015 Con & UKIP beating 2015 Lab I get the following:

    Con gains (35):
    1. City of Chester con
    3. Ynys Mon con
    4. Brentford & Isleworth con
    5. Wirral West con
    6. Halifax con
    8. Ilford North con
    9. Newcastle-under-Lyme con
    10. Barrow & Furness con
    11. Wolverhampton South West con
    13. Enfield North con
    15. Dewsbury con
    16. Lancaster & Fleetwood con
    17. North East Derbyshire con
    19. Bridgend con
    20. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland con
    22. Walsall North con
    26. Birmingham, Northfield con
    27. Wakefield con
    28. Gedling con
    29. Eltham con
    30. Stoke-on-Trent South con
    31. Copeland con
    32. Birmingham, Edgbaston con
    33. Clwyd South con
    37. Delyn con
    38. Blackpool South con
    40. Alyn & Deeside con
    41. Scunthorpe con
    42. Bristol East con
    49. Coventry North West con
    50. Hyndburn con
    51. Bolton North East con
    54. Dudley North con
    56. Mansfield con
    58. Batley & Spen con

    Tories in Play (First party listed more likely IMHO. 9 Con advantage 8 lab advantage)

    2. Ealing Central & Acton con’/lab
    14. Hove lab/con
    34. Coventry South con/lab
    36. Darlington lab/con
    43. Newport West con/lab
    44. Southampton, Test con/lab
    45. Chorley lab/con
    59. Workington con/lab
    60. Stoke-on-Trent North con/lab
    65. Oldham East & Saddleworth con’lab
    71. Worsley & Eccles South con/lab
    72. Penistone & Stocksbridge con/lab
    73. Walsall South lab/con
    74. Birmingham, Erdington lab/con
    76. Slough lab/con
    85. Stalybridge & Hyde lab/con
    88. Bradford South lab/con

    Lab holds on basis of high UKIP vote that may not collapse (5):
    57. Dagenham & Rainham lab
    78. Rother Valle ab
    35. Hartlepool lab
    53. Heywood & Middleton lab
    64. Great Grimsby

    Labour hold- some where a non Tory might be in play (38):
    12. Hampstead & Kilburn lab
    18. Harrow West lab
    21. Westminster North lab
    24. Tooting lab
    39. Burnley lab
    46. Bermondsey & Old Southwark lab
    52. Bury South lab
    55. Wirral South lab
    61. Cardiff Central lab
    62. Exeter lab
    63. Newport East lab
    66. Ellesmere Port & Neston lab
    67. Luton South lab
    68. Hammersmith lab
    69. Bristol South lab
    70. York Central lab
    75. Leeds North East lab
    77. Tynemouth lab
    79. Cardiff West lab
    80. Norwich South lab
    81. Nottingham South lab
    82. Cardiff South & Penarth lab
    83. Birmingham, Yardley lab
    84. Wolverhampton North East lab
    86. Stoke-on-Trent Central lab
    87. Lancashire West lab
    89. Bradford East lab
    90. Sedgefield lab
    91. Bassetlaw lab
    92. Huddersfield lab
    93. Llanelli lab
    94. Ashfield lab
    95. Birmingham, Selly Oak lab
    96. Hornsey & Wood Green lab
    97. Warrington North lab
    98. Swansea West lab
    99. Brent North lab
    100. Leicester West lab

    Definitely not Tory (but maybe not Labour): (3)
    7. Cambridge lab/LD
    23. Edinburgh South lab/snp
    48. Bristol West lab/green

    I seem to have lost 3 in my cut & Paste or added them up wrong!

    As I said in my previous post in all honesty I think I am favouring the Tories in saying 100% of UKIP vote goes to them. To some extent I am simplifying the general churn which favours the Tories by giving them 100% of the UKIP vote. Plus some like Ynys Mon get complicated.and I still have this feeling that some of the not quite “Labour heartlands” will not show the same UNS pattern of UKIP to Tory.

    Once you get to seat 50 any seats turning Tory have exceeded the UNS of 5% swing (based on Tory 47 Lab 31).but this was kind of an exercise to see how the UKIP to Tory swing would play out. When you get past seat 72 I really wasn’t finding anything that looked like a Tory gain.

  38. Thanks for that

    Lancs is that the ComRes poll from April? That’s the only thing I could find referring to what your talking about. Also are these cross breaks?

  39. It’s entirely possible that Labour are being overestimated but the raw data shows conservative leads of 11%, the pollsters have adjusted their weighting quite a lot to accommodate ‘lazy labour’ which leads me to believe they may not be accurate but they’re most likely not overestimating Labour

  40. Interesting list. Looks quite sensible to me. One that might have got lost is Wrexham. I imagine it would fall in your straight Tory gain column.

  41. @ Matt Wilson

    Sorry- you’re giving me to much credit here. All I was doing was comparing 2015 share of votes in each constituency, assumed Lab stayed the same (everywhere) and assumed Tories gained all the UKIP vote in those constituencies.

    I’m sure there are people out there who could do it more scientifically, analyse crossbreaks, use regional variations and probably add in the smaller swings between Tory/Lib Dem/SNP/Green etc.

    I just felt that the only significant swing this election was UKIP to Tory and this will vary wildly between seats based on the UKIP vote.

    Interestingly though that does seem to fit in with the London poll of very small swings from Lab to Con which must be based on the lack of UKIP voters to swing to Tory.

    @ WJ

    Yes Wrexham definite Tory on my theory- you found one of the three that got lost in my cut and paste!

  42. Matt & PT – apparently 9,721 but I think it was an online survey.

    It’s North West figures however are:


    2015 45.2%

    2017 47.7%

    But as there’s also an increase of 2% in the Tory share it’s merely illustrative of what we already know ie the UKIP share will fall from 2015.

    [PS PT – yes the ‘North West’ is a physically large Euro region although the media tend to exclude Cumbria a lot of the time as people there regard themselves with the NE and watch and listen to their regional news as opposed to BBC NW or Granada. Sadly Cumbria is just too remote for many so it is often overlooked as we saw in the Copeland campaign and even the Count when Sky couldn’t even get there when there was a fault on the train line]

  43. Plop
    Didn’t you predict just yesterday that they’ll probably hold onto Workington?

  44. Shevii – as well as the 2015 UKIP vote probably splitting more like 50% (Con), 25% (UKIP), 10% (Lab), 15% other or not voting, remember that in a dozen Labour seats UKIP have specifically stood down in favour of the Labour PPC.

    I realise Birkenhead or Vauxhall don’t appear in most Parties’ lists of target seats, but a couple do including Chorley.

  45. Rivers / Matt & others


    I’ve been thinking about this. Doesn’t it mean one of three things, broadly speaking?

    1. You are right to feel positive because Labour’s vote will hold up well on the day, maybe increase in some places like you have suggested. Polls will be shown to have been somewhat wide of the mark, especially in some of the key marginals. Or . . .

    2. People either are being ‘nice’ on the doorstep – or mean it in theory but don’t show up on the day. Significant reports of this from Lab activists in 2015 where their jaws dropped to find they didn’t win because people didn’t do what they said, even in patches worked tirelessly.

    3. Labour’s vote share is holding up well, and in the churn increasing in some places – maybe even across the board if they are polling at Lab GE2015 levels. But national polls showing a wide Tory lead are also correct, as the difference is accounted for by large numbers of non-voters from 2015 who came out for Brexit and are coming out for Mrs. May to ensure the job gets signed off properly. In other words, turnout is going to be perhaps well over 70% in this scenario – and potentially higher in Brexit seats than Remain ones.

    Lots of nuances and possible caveats could be added to these 3 options, but I see my summary as being the gist of it and 9th June telling us which of the three is closest to the mark!

  46. Yeah there are people who fob you off and if someone hasn’t voted for the last few years and is telling you they’ll be backing you then of course you take that with some salt.

    I am definitely one of those people who was gutted when the results came through last week and we lost despite all our work but we did put on an extra 200 votes and it was only the Tories shedding Brexit votes to the Lib Dems that put them over the line. In this case the turnout was up, 47% from 41% but we bucked the trend. It’s the biggest issue with canvassing that you’ve no real idea how the other parties are doing.

  47. BT
    In theory all three of those could be happening but my thoughts are as follows.

    1) I wish but probably not the case.

    2) Very plausible, the hope is that we have refined our technique a bit to perhaps account for it. I cant speak for Lab nationally but with the teams I’ve been on we look at an individuals past voting record, unless they always vote we tend to be very wary of any claims they’re backing us, we’ve also taken to semi concluding that past Lab voters who are now don’t knows are not going to vote for us even though in all probability some will. Only small changes but hopefully leaves us better prepared.

    3) Most likely in my opinion but not quite for the reasons you specify, I actually expect come the results our vote wont be much changed from 2015 and might actually be up slightly despite the talk of May supposedly winning over Lab voters on mass. I think the issue will be that while we remain fairly static the Tories will surge forward on the back of a big chunk of the kipper vote. I don’t expect higher turnout will make a difference, indeed I expect turnout to be very low this election, if turnout is as high as 70% I’d say its bad news for May since it probably means Momentum’s talk of mobilising the youth vote has actually worked.

  48. I have spoken to people, and many of my comrades also, who say they aren’t interested or they’re giving it a miss this time. At the same time though student registration is up which doesn’t guarantee they’ll vote. It may mean though that rather than the sliding turnout we see between the age groups might vary this time. Younger people being mobilised by Brexit or student drives, etc. while middle aged voters stay home.

  49. Thanks guys.

    Rivers – re turnout at 70% being bad for May, I don’t think so, though it’s all guesswork.

    Think EU referendum – 72% turnout and that wasn’t because of the youth being mobilised! Which was kind of my point 3.

    Some of those voters who came out of hibernation last June may replenish UKIP and offset just a little bit the mass swing from UKIP-Con that appears to be about to happen – or they may vote for Theresa May directly to get the job done, and go back into hibernation for the next 30 years!

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