Labour Defence List

These are the hundred current Labour seats with the lowest majority in order of their percentage majority. This does not necessarily mean that the top of the list will would be the most vulnerable Labour seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Labour party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Cambridge Majority 599 (1.1%)
8. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
9. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
10. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
11. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
12. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
13. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
14. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
15. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
18. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
19. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
20. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
21. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
22. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
23. Edinburgh South Majority 2637 (5.3%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Burnley Majority 3244 (8.1%)
40. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bermondsey & Old Southwark Majority 4489 (8.8%)
47. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
48. Bristol West Majority 5673 (8.9%)
49. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
52. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
53. Heywood & Middleton Majority 5299 (10.9%)
54. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
55. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
56. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
57. Dagenham & Rainham Majority 4980 (11.6%)
58. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
59. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
60. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
61. Cardiff Central Majority 4981 (12.9%)
62. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
63. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
64. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
65. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
66. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
67. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
68. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
69. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
70. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
71. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
72. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
73. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
74. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
75. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
76. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
77. Tynemouth Majority 8240 (15.4%)
78. Rother Valley Majority 7297 (15.5%)
79. Cardiff West Majority 6789 (15.5%)
80. Norwich South Majority 7654 (15.8%)
81. Nottingham South Majority 6936 (15.9%)
82. Cardiff South & Penarth Majority 7453 (16%)
83. Birmingham, Yardley Majority 6595 (16%)
84. Wolverhampton North East Majority 5495 (16.2%)
85. Stalybridge & Hyde Majority 6686 (16.3%)
86. Stoke-on-Trent Central Majority 5179 (16.6%)
87. Lancashire West Majority 8360 (16.9%)
88. Bradford South Majority 6450 (17.1%)
89. Bradford East Majority 7084 (17.1%)
90. Sedgefield Majority 6843 (17.7%)
91. Bassetlaw Majority 8843 (17.9%)
92. Huddersfield Majority 7345 (18.1%)
93. Llanelli Majority 7095 (18.3%)
94. Ashfield Majority 8820 (18.6%)
95. Birmingham, Selly Oak Majority 8447 (18.7%)
96. Hornsey & Wood Green Majority 11058 (19.1%)
97. Warrington North Majority 8923 (19.6%)
98. Swansea West Majority 7036 (20%)
99. Brent North Majority 10834 (20.8%)
100. Leicester West Majority 7203 (20.9%)
Comments - 461 Responses on “Labour Defence”
  1. I think SNP will get a further bounce from the reports that Labour will enter a Grand a Coalition with the Conservatives to keep SNP out.

  2. What reports Benny?

  3. benny is off his rocker. labour ruled out an Snp coalition about 2 weeks ago…maybe he means confidence and supply.

  4. Because of the proportional count in Germany, coalition government is normal here. The present Government led by Frau Merkel contains both Conservatives [CDU] and Socialists [SPD] in a Grand Coalition. We don’t seem to be too badly governed, and middle-of-the-road policies are the norm. Whichever party gains the most seats must try to form a stable government; a minority lame-duck government would be a disaster for the UK in these worrying times and the Scottish Nationalists would justifiably hold the rest to ransom.

  5. Asked if Labour could form an anti-austerity alliance with the SNP, Labour’s Treasury spokesman Chris Leslie told Sky News: “We have ruled out a coalition with the SNP. We don’t believe in doing that with them, because they believe in totally different things, in breaking up the United Kingdom. We don’t believe in that.”
    I think that this proves at a Grand Coalition of Lab+Cons is the only way to stable government

  6. Benny can answer for himself but:
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/election-2015-former-tory-chairman-calls-for-coalition-with-labour-to-keep-the-uk-together-10092329.html
    http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/general-election-2015/62210/time-for-grand-coalition-of-labour-and-the-tories
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article49738.html
    which, among other things, says:
    An post election coalition permutation that is not even being seriously considered today would be one of keeping the highly destructive nationalists out of power at all costs even to the extent of Labour and Conservatives thinking the unthinkable by forming a grand coalition or more likely arrangement!
    Yes such a government would be chaotic and probably not last no more than a couple of years, but still it would be better than the destruction to the UK that the SNP would wrought. So Labour and Conservative MP’s could as they did last September in Scotland swallow their ideological differences in defence of the union.
    Yes at this point in time such an outcome is highly improbable, nearly as improbable as a Con-Lib coalition was in 2010, but the important point is that it is POSSIBLE!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/03/07/general-election-grand-coalition_n_6821684.html
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5c7a8830-bb6a-11e4-a31f-00144feab7de.html#axzz3WW3vcDWo
    http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2015/03/05/the_gothic_nightmare_of_a_british_grand_coalition_111019.html
    And this says: In most instances, a grand coalition is a death sentence to viable political parties. It is particularly dangerous for those on the centre-left. Only terminally ill political parties contemplate the prospect of grand coalitions as a last shot at survival. Labour is in a weak position, but it is not facing doom just yet.
    Yet, would it be a death sentence if it was to save the country? I think not.

  7. With Labour on course to lose most of Scotland to SNP and even Hampstead and Kilburn in London to the Conservatives this makes the Grand Coalition look more and more likely.

  8. If Tories can’t get on with LibDems (led by a Tory wannabe) then how are they going to get on with Labour…?? Who would lead this GC? A Left-wing Tory or a Right Wing Labourite…?

    Grand Coalitions needed a war or the Depression in the past… to have even a ghost of a chance…

  9. Benny Tolkin. Firstly unless you are expecting a war with Russia (or some disaster similar) hell will freeze over before the Tories and Labour will work together in government. Secondly Labour are almost certainly not going to lose Hampstead and Kilburn.

  10. Probably the best place to post the latest horror story for Labour from North of the Border:

    TNS Poll (with changes from a month ago):

    SNP 52 (+6)
    Lab 24 (-6)
    Con 13 (-1)
    Lib Dem 6 (+3)
    Grn 3 (-1)

  11. Hardly any changes at all to the Scottish constituency odds by Ladbrokes since I last checked. All of the implied outcomes are the same and there are only some very marginal changes in the odds of seats. Most are identical to previous post.

    e.g.1 Con is now 1/2 rather than 2/5 to win DCT

    e.g.2 Lab is now 1/2 rather than 1/3 to win East Lothian

    e.g.3 LD is now 4/6 rather than 4/7 to win Ross, Skye & Lochaber

    Those imply some money on the SNP in those seats, but there are also examples going slightly the other way,

    e.g.1 Lab is now 4/7 rather than 4/6 in Paisley South (Douglas Alexander’s seat).

  12. Maybe spoke too soon! I think Scotland is offering evidence that bookies odds are reactive rather than predictive. Pretty big shift in the ~12 hours since the third batch of Ashcroft Scottish polls.

    Ladbrokes now have the SNP favourite in 53 seats. Exceptions being the two southern ones (Tories), O&S (Lib Dem), Dunfermline, Glasgow NE and Rutherglen (all Labour). Ashcroft has only polled the two southern seats out of those.

    SNP are odds-on favorite in all seats except the following:

    Berwickshire, etc. (Con 11/8, LD 13/8, SNP 2/1)
    Dumfries & Galloway (SNP 1/1, Lab 6/4, Con 4)
    Dumfriesshire, etc (Con 1/2, SNP 6/4)
    Dunfermline (Lab 4/7, SNP 11/10)
    Edinburgh S (Lab 5/6, SNP 5/6)
    Glasgow NE (Lab 4/9, SNP 6/4)
    Orkney & Shetland (LD 1/5, SNP 11/4)
    Renf E (Lab 5/6, SNP 5/6)
    Rutherglen, etc (Lab 8/15, SNP 5/4)

    That would give SNP 52, Lab 4, Con 2, LD 1.

    A bit odd. I think there may have been an over-reaction in some of the odds, but an under-reaction in others. The SNP are silly short odds in some seats that are on paper very difficult to win. But it’s also hard to justify Labour being 4/9 in Glasgow NE now.

  13. Iamtruly amazed at Scottish and Scottish constituent polling and I am so grateful to Lord Ashcroft for all the polling he has done and will do over the next fortnight.

    At this point I am inclined to think Labour may lose all its Scottish seats apart from Coatbridge C&B Glasgow NE and Kirkcaldy & C meaning Scotland would have 53 SNP MPs 3 Labour 2 LD (Orkney&Shetland and Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk) and Con 1 as they have now. However several of my SNP gains will be close including Edinburgh S and Renfrewshire E and Rutherglen&HamW and I agree BRS is very close between LD/Con/SNP.

    Outside Scotland I do think Labour will lose any seats from GE2010 apart from Bradford W in which I expect Galloway to narrowly hold. I think Heywood & Middleton will revert to a safe Labour seat but one of many UKIP second places.

  14. I think it will be 54 SNP, 1 LD (Orkney and Shetland) 2 Tories and 2 Labour.

  15. How much should we think of polls as witchcraft as opposed to near reality?
    Is there a statistical chart giving the final poll of polls data just before the end of an election campaign, which is compared with the actual outturn results? Say, results going back 30 years?

    Do telephone posters now find it more difficult to get information from Party A supporters as against party B supporters? Many silver haired real voters refuse to answer the telephone these days.

    So are responses so well balanced as they used to be when telephone pestilential scoundrels were less in evidence?

    Discuss.

  16. And this mornings TNS poll for Scotland:

    ◦SNP 54% (+2), Lab 22% (-2), Con 13% (0), LD 6% (0), Green 2% (-1), UKIP 2% (+1)

    I calculate the Lab / SNP swing since the last election as a mere 27%.

  17. I know that there will be local machinations but on a uniform swing that would give 57 seats SNP with Labour only holding Glasgow North East and LD’s Orkney and Shetland

  18. They’d hold Glasgow North East by around 60 votes.

  19. Gary Gibbon (C4 news) says on his blog that Labour are pulling back resources into the “12-15” Scottish seats they think they have a chance of holding.

  20. They appear to have been quietly withdrawing from seats which they thought were untenable (Dundee West) or unwinnable (Dunbartonshire East) since early in the campaign : but as the polls get worse, the circle of wagons gets ever smaller. I honestly wonder how many members and resources Scottish Labour actually have. When effectively challenged, they appear to have collapsed with startling rapidity.

  21. I can’t say I think there are 12-15 seats left that Labour have a good chance of holding.

  22. Seat odds update:

    SNP are odds-on favorite in all seats except the following:

    Berwickshire, etc. (Con 11/8, LD 13/8, SNP 2/1)
    Dumfries & Galloway (SNP 1/1, Lab 6/4, Con 4)
    Dumfriesshire, etc (Con 1/2, SNP 6/4)
    Dunfermline (Lab 5/6, SNP 5/6)
    Edinburgh S (Lab 5/6, SNP 5/6)
    Glasgow NE (Lab 4/9, SNP 13/8)
    Orkney & Shetland (LD 1/5, SNP 3/1)
    Renf E (Lab 5/6, SNP 5/6)
    Rutherglen, etc (Lab 8/13, SNP 6/5)

    That would give SNP 52.5, Lab 3.5, Con 2, LD 1.

    Not much movement. There are still a fair number of seats (10 or so) where the are other contender(s) with a realistic chance. A few of those are in the Lib Dem seats (eg1 Swinson, eg2 Crockart).

  23. Ipsos Mori Scotland: SNP 54 Lab 20 Con 17 LD 5

    Electoral Calculus using these numbers: SNP 59

  24. As each successive poll shows a further decline in Labours voting percentage, the remote possibility of them being 3rd in the Scottish popular vote comes into view.

    The big caveat with all these Scots-wide poll is the absence of an Ashcroft style constituency question. There must surely be some constituencies where the Labour incumbent has a personal vote which might – just might – save them.

  25. I think Russell Brown in Dumfries and Galloway, Ian Murray in Edinburgh South, and just possibly Jim Murphy are about the only ones that may have a significant personal vote and be close enough for it to matter. Then again, Ashcroft has polled them all, and all three were behind, and there has been further movement to the SNP since those polls were carried out.

  26. Indeed Simon.

    As someone who has, to my regret, only been north of the border twice in my life, I can only watch the political tsunami in Scotland with a sense of incredulity. Given that I have Welsh/English/Scots-Irish ancestry, I feel an instinctive Unionism: but recognise that the Union is now being tested to breaking point. It also scares me that without the political influence and tradition of Scotland, whatever remains after independence will be a far nastier less tolerant country.

  27. Labour third in votes in Scotland, and possibly with zero seats, really would be quite remarkable.

  28. PC – Benny said a Lab-Tory Grand Coalition. It’s unlikely but a dozen MPs have now been named and said they’d support it.

  29. A lot of electors have still not yet made up their minds. There are so many permutations this time round, that the pollsters are missing some vital indicators.

    Also, I think some people being called by the pollsters are giving deliberately false answers.

  30. Surprised to hear that Labour are set to lose all of their Scottish seats. A coalition with SNP would keep them honest.

  31. Dear Peter and Ben, The National Unity Coalition which has not yet been ruled out but promoted.

  32. Conservatives with Labour to keep snp out.

  33. With a week left, are there any seats outside Scotland won by Labour in 2010 which there is a realistic chance of them losing?

    My guess is almost certainly no.

  34. I can’t think of any. Southampton Itchen was talked of as a slight chance, but not for some time.

    Of course UKIP could surprise again in H&M or G Grimsby but I think they’ll fall short there.

    Barring any new Janner-type revelations, probably not.

  35. Thats what I think Lancs observer.

    UKIP appear to be fading so I think that rules them out for Great Grimsby and Heywood & Middleton. They might still take a fair number of second places in Labour held seats in the north.

  36. Ynys Mon is a seat Labour could lose to Plaid. Though I think they will hold it albeit relatively narrowly.

  37. Bradford West?

  38. Scottish seat odds update:

    SNP are now odds-on in Dumfriesshire (2/5) after the Ashcroft poll yesterday. They are odds-on favorite in all seats except the following:

    Berwickshire, etc. (Con 11/8, LD 13/8, SNP 2/1)
    Dumfries & Galloway (SNP 1/1, Lab 6/4, Con 4)
    Dunfermline (Lab 5/6, SNP 5/6)
    Edinburgh S (Lab 5/6, SNP 5/6)
    Glasgow NE (Lab 4/9, SNP 13/8)
    Orkney & Shetland (LD 1/5, SNP 3/1)
    Renf E (Lab 5/6, SNP 5/6)
    Rutherglen, etc (Lab 8/13, SNP 6/5)

    That would give SNP 53.5, Lab 3.5, Con 1, LD 1.

    Odds are still close in a significant number of seats, so those numbers most likely flatter the SNP by about 5.

  39. The Scotsman reports that Labour has identified 12 seats where they going to concentrate all their resources in the hope of retaining them. They list 11 (should No12 be Edinburgh North?):

    Aberdeen South,
    Edinburghs East, South and South West
    East Lothian
    Mid Lothian
    Dunfermline and West Fife
    Glenrothes
    Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
    Rutherglen and Hamilton west
    East Renfrewshire (Surprise!!)

    Full article:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/labour-prepares-rescue-package-of-scottish-seats-1-3761695

    That means Labour are only expecting to win just 2 seats in West Scotland. (Bet Margaret Curran and Douglas Alexander are thrilled by the selection).

  40. Has anyone got any predictions for voter Turnout?

    My prediction is 74%.

    (IER, close election, UKIP, lots of marginals, local elections, high postal vote, Scotland..inter alia)

  41. Are there going to be any surprise Labour losses South of the border or in Wales? It’s hard to gauge, but doesn’t seem likely UKIP are going to do enough to win any Labour seats.

  42. If UKIP are 16 points back in Grimsby, they’re going nowhere in other Labour seats. Healthily increased Labour turnout in Heywood and Middleton, easy hold in Rotherham.

  43. Predictions for Scotland:

    SNP 47%
    Labour 27%
    Con 16%
    Lib Dem 6%

    SNP wins all bar the following:

    Labour seats:
    Edinburgh South
    Glasgow NE
    East Renfrewshire

    Lib Dem seats:
    Orkney & Shetland
    Berwickshire etc.

  44. The last polls seem to suggest a very slight moderation in the SNP lead which reached a peak of 34% in a recent poll. Most predictions now seem to be of a lead of more like 18-20%. That suggests a swing of more like 20-21% rather than the 27% which was being suggested in some polls. That’s still horrific but would give Labour the chance of saving quite a number of additional seats, perhaps especially if the swing were slightly lower in the east than the west of Scotland. FWIW the bookmakers still make Labour outright favourites in Central Ayrshire & Rutherglen. These seats should be saved along with Glasgow NE, and Edinburgh S & E Renfrewshire look likelier to stay Labour. There will be some photo-finishes & on the basis of latest polling Labour are in with a chance of scraping through by the skin of their teeth in some seats which looked like goners a few days ago. But, more than a dozen at the most still looks very unlikely.

  45. BBC reporting that Labour now expected to lose all 7 Glasgow seats.

  46. In case it was missed on the main thread, my sincere apologies to anyone here I was dismissive of. I’ve clearly lost any credibility as an election forecaster, and will never again attempt to do that, nor will I take any future notice of opinion polls. I’ve enjoyed contributing here, but this is goodbye to you all unless you know me in real life.

  47. Barnaby,

    You and most of us and all the pollsters. So don’t feel bad about it.

    Missed you overnight!

  48. Barnaby- the vast majority of us got it all wrong. There is no shame in that. The polling evidence suggested our views would be proved correct.

    Nonetheless I too would like to apologise for being too dismissive of others on here.

  49. Barnaby, You need a day or two to recover, Please do not jack it all in prematurely.

    I did try to warn you that Cons may just gain a seat along the North Wales coast. When the Results from Rhyl are analysed, I think it may be discovered that the turn out in Rhyl was lower than other parts of the VofC.

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