Labour Defence List

These are the hundred current Labour seats with the lowest majority in order of their percentage majority. This does not necessarily mean that the top of the list will would be the most vulnerable Labour seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Labour party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Cambridge Majority 599 (1.1%)
8. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
9. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
10. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
11. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
12. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
13. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
14. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
15. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
18. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
19. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
20. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
21. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
22. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
23. Edinburgh South Majority 2637 (5.3%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Burnley Majority 3244 (8.1%)
40. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bermondsey & Old Southwark Majority 4489 (8.8%)
47. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
48. Bristol West Majority 5673 (8.9%)
49. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
52. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
53. Heywood & Middleton Majority 5299 (10.9%)
54. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
55. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
56. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
57. Dagenham & Rainham Majority 4980 (11.6%)
58. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
59. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
60. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
61. Cardiff Central Majority 4981 (12.9%)
62. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
63. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
64. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
65. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
66. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
67. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
68. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
69. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
70. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
71. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
72. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
73. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
74. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
75. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
76. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
77. Tynemouth Majority 8240 (15.4%)
78. Rother Valley Majority 7297 (15.5%)
79. Cardiff West Majority 6789 (15.5%)
80. Norwich South Majority 7654 (15.8%)
81. Nottingham South Majority 6936 (15.9%)
82. Cardiff South & Penarth Majority 7453 (16%)
83. Birmingham, Yardley Majority 6595 (16%)
84. Wolverhampton North East Majority 5495 (16.2%)
85. Stalybridge & Hyde Majority 6686 (16.3%)
86. Stoke-on-Trent Central Majority 5179 (16.6%)
87. Lancashire West Majority 8360 (16.9%)
88. Bradford South Majority 6450 (17.1%)
89. Bradford East Majority 7084 (17.1%)
90. Sedgefield Majority 6843 (17.7%)
91. Bassetlaw Majority 8843 (17.9%)
92. Huddersfield Majority 7345 (18.1%)
93. Llanelli Majority 7095 (18.3%)
94. Ashfield Majority 8820 (18.6%)
95. Birmingham, Selly Oak Majority 8447 (18.7%)
96. Hornsey & Wood Green Majority 11058 (19.1%)
97. Warrington North Majority 8923 (19.6%)
98. Swansea West Majority 7036 (20%)
99. Brent North Majority 10834 (20.8%)
100. Leicester West Majority 7203 (20.9%)
Comments - 461 Responses on “Labour Defence”
  1. “Has anyone collected all the available info on more detailed breakdowns of the referendum results. I know Edinburgh published Weatminster constituency results and I’ve seen comments that suggest some other authorities published similar breakdowns.”

    Edinburgh by Westminster constituencies

    East Yes 27,500 No 30,6632
    North & Leith Yes 28,813 No 43,253
    South Yes 20,340 No 38,298
    South West Yes 24,659 No 39,509
    West Yes 22,615 No 42,946

    South Lanarkshire by counting area

    Clydesdale Yes 16,733 No 25,391
    East Kilbride Yes 31,309 No 36,365
    Rutherglen Yes 20,844 No 20,915
    Hamilton 32,104 No 39,129

    North Lanarkshire (but postal votes distributed evenly)

    Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Northern Corridor (Boxes 1-88 and Postal Votes 1-24 & 97) Yes 30,821 No 28,486

    Coatbridge and part of Airdrie (Boxes 89-186 and Postal Votes 25-48) Yes 30,065 No 26,903

    Remainder of Airdrie, Shotts, Bellshill and Viewpark (Boxes 187-267 and Postal Votes 49-72) Yes 25,795 No 27,685

    Motherwell and Wishaw (Boxes 268-362 and Postal Votes 73-96) Yes 29,106 No 27,848

    Falkirk by Holyrood constituency
    Falkirk East: No 54.5%, Yes 45.4%
    Falkirk West: No 52.3%, Yes 47.6%

    Glasgow (% of YES) by Holyrood constituency
    Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn – 57.1
    Glasgow Provan – 56.97
    Glasgow Pollok – 53.87
    Glasgow Southside – 52.99
    Glasgow Cathcart – 52.80
    Glasgow Shettleston – 51.36
    Glasgow Kelvin – 52.44
    Glasgow Anniesland – 50.79

    East Lothian Westminster constituency mirrors the local authority boundaries IIRC

  2. I think Glasgow South is the most likely prospect followed by Glasgow Central. The thing about Glasgow North is I’m not sure we’re the LD vote will go. It’s possible that the Greens could hover up many of these votes that the SNP would hope to take allow Labour to hold on with less than a third of the vote.

  3. For the moment, I have Glasgow South down as an SNP gain.

    Glasgow Cathcart voted SNP by a 5.5% margin at Holyrood, and the only difference between that seat and Glasgow South, is that Glasgow South contains a large chunk of Pollokshields, which has become largely SNP voting in recent years.

    Furthermore, Cathcart also voted Yes (52.8%), and given that we can expect around 10% of the electorate of Glasgow South to vote Conservative, that leaves a 38% non-Tory unionist vote to account for, although obviously some of that 52.8% Yes vote will be Labour Yes (particularly around Castlemilk).

    In fact, the Glasgow seats are likely to be decided in areas such as Castlemilk, Drumchapel, Maryhill and Springburn, all of which had a high Yes vote but are traditionally dyed-in-the-wool Labour. For them to vote SNP might be a step too far.

  4. This is where the action is at the moment. I think we’ll be able to tell very quickly from the ashcroft polling in scottish seats what kind of ball park the damage to labour looks like.

  5. I’m uncertain to what extent this will be true.

    I’ve said it before, but a number of Scottish seats have become very peculiar in nature. I don’t expect tomorrow’s disclosure to tell us much about uniform swing, and the results may be more closely related to the local Yes vote than the 2010 results. Certainly, in that sense they will be valuable in telling us what should be our benchmark: 2010 results, 2011 results or 2014 referendum? It may also tell us something about tactical voting.

    I am worried that the choice of seats selected may not be the most representative, although I do not know which seats have been polled. For example, I don’t expect polling from Gordon, Dundee West, Falkirk, Ochil, Inverness or Glasgow North would tell us much about what’s happening at a national level.

  6. I agree with Piemonteis.

    To understand the extent of the SNP threat, we need info not on the obvious targets but on the second tier like East Kilbride, Midlothian, Kilmarnock, Ayrshire North and Livingstone. If these seats are “in play” we will know that the SNP surge is genuine.

  7. To be honest, to get a full picture you need to look at the third and fourth tier of seats as well. The seats you list are broadly ones where the SNP ought to contend if they were neck and neck with Labour, but they are 20-odd points ahead of them, so polling a much wider variety of seats would be useful.

  8. I’m not sure we can even talk about tiers in the Scottish context. We have a certain amount of categories that we perhaps can group seats into, but even then it depends on whose traditionally strongest in that seat.

    For example, Livingston and Linlithgow will probably show very similar trends. The same can be said for Cumbernauld and East Stirling, perhaps Glasgow North, Central and South, and then maybe Glasgow North East and North West.

    But the trend in East Lothian, for example, will likely be completely apart from anywhere else in Scotland, the same for Dumfries & Galloway, Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, Stirling…

    What this does mean, of course, is that election night will be extremely interesting.

    What will be interesting tomorrow is seeing how Election Forecast adapt their model in regards to Scotland. They get a lot of criticism because many of their seats seem way out, but perhaps this is the input they need to fine-tune the model.

  9. Todays Ashcroft polls in Scottish Labour seats are truly dismal for Labour.

    Based on the constituency question, Labour is only ahead in one of 14, and SNP is ahead by at least 5% in all but 2 of the others. So you are not really looking at error of margin issues.

    The SNP seem to be successfully translating their referendum performance to the General Election voting intentions at the constituency level. Hard to see how this juggernaut will be stopped.

  10. I meant margin of error!!

  11. Yes, the Ashcroft poll looks awful for Labour. And yet, given that I cannot see the SNP propping up the Conservatives in any way shape and form, there will be a limit to how much this helps the Conservatives. I am still of the view that if the Conservatives end up on less than 290 seats they will struggle to form the next government.

  12. Tory I agree with your numbers.

    but actually i can see a tory minority on 285 seats propped up by DUP, LD, UKIP all voting on a confidence and supply basis. I wouldn’t expect any of these guys to be ministers…

    BUT the more i think about it, the liberals who are left, say 30 seats, will be a) mainly in England and b) mostly tory facing, in so far as the tories will be 2nd place in Eastbourne, Twickenham, all the West country seats which the liberals hold, Cheadle, Southport, Westmoreland, ie, most of the 30 remaining.

    If that is the case, I don’t see any upside in them supporting an SNP/Labour coalition which will be as popular in England as a bout of measles.

    The SNP rout of labour in Scotland opens up a possiblity, albeit slim, of a tory minory govt.

  13. According to Ashcroft more remaining Scottish Labour voters (not just 2010 Scottish Labour voters) would prefer an Labour SNP coalition to a Labour government.

  14. I don’t think LD can afford to prop up an even weaker Tory Government. I suspect most LDs with the possible exception of Clegg are desperate to regroup from outside Govt.

  15. I think James Peel is absolutely correct in saying an SNP surge will not assist the Conservatives. Nicola Sturgeon has clearly stated that she will not support a Conservative led government and in the Scottish context that’s good politics.

    Indeed its difficult to see how the Conservatives can cobble together a coalition should they – as expected – have a net loss of about 20 seats. The DUP seats will change little : UKIP gains are likely to mainly come from the Conservatives so that does not get the total closer to 326: and if the Lib Dems fall below 30 they may prefer to stay out of government rather than join one with a wafer thin majority and a phalanx of rebellious Conservative right wingers.

    And if Labour were so unprepared / dismissive of a coalition with the Lib Dems in 2010, its difficult to imagine them being thrilled about the prospect of an SNP partner.

    The odds on a 2nd election this year are rapidly narrowing.

  16. Potter… I would replace desperate with determined.. but you are right

  17. Labour attitudes will change significantly when they have to work out how to piece together a majority, especially if they aren’t all that close to an overall majority of their own. You could see it being worth going back to the polls if you have 315 seats, say, but if the result is, roughly, 280 for each of the main parties, it’s going to be very likely that a second election just gives you another hung parliament. In that case, I suspect a lot of the Labour tribal objections – the “We hate the Lib Dems/SNP”, if you will – will vanish pretty quickly. The ideological stuff will need to be resolved, but there isn’t that much that’s an absolute barrier to a deal. Probably wouldn’t be a formal coalition, but I’d bet something gets worked out.

  18. There is enough “race memory” in the LibDems of giving confidence and supply in the late 1970s and it is not a good memory…

  19. Well, yes, but they, like everyone else, will have to work with whatever Parliamentary arithmetic the electorate delivers. Also, I think their “race memory” of formal coalition will be that much stronger, and I’m not sure that being pious outsiders in a messy Parliament will really work.

  20. If heavy Tory election spending, and an “election Budget” swing things towards the Conservatives in the run-up to the election, a 5% per cent swing against Labour is quite conceivable. For instance, I have just posted on Bristol South, which has been swinging more heavily than average against Labour for a number of elections now.

    Anybody assuming that the question is whether Labour will get more or less the same number of seats as now (other than in Scotland) or whether the Tories will make modest gains still leaving them short of a majority, is in my view being very rash.

    If Labour starts losing seats with majorities in the 15 – 20% range, and melts down in Scotland, they will be in very serious trouble. They would at this point start to lose seats, e.g. Cardiff South and Penarth and Stoke-on-Trent Central, that they have held continuously since 1945. And this scenario is far from impossible. I find it difficult to see Labour coming back from wilderness years like the 1930s and the 1980s for a third time.

    Not least, do not underestimate Cameron in a Presidential style election campaign.

  21. That may be the single most ridiculous post I’ve seen on this website. The polls have been static, more or less, for months. Why would there be a 10% swing to the Tories in the last few months before the election?

    In the seat you mentioned, the Tories have made progress since 1997. They have moved from 22% in their worst result ever, to 23% when they formed a Government. There is no reason to expect them to contend in Bristol South next year, however much you would like them to.

  22. Frederic’s gone off on one again. He doesn’t even seem to have noticed that the Tories are 3rd in Bristol South. And the idea that the Tories will win Cardiff S & Penarth is preposterous.

  23. According to the polling average on this site there has been a 4-4.5% swing from Conservative to Labour since the last election so even if there were a “5% swing” to the Conservatives as Frederic suggests, that would only get us back to about the same position as May 2010!

    And many of the postings on individual constituency pages indicate the Conservatives struggling to hold on to most of their 25 most marginal seats against Labour.

    The Conservatives have not increased their voting percentage after being in power in a General Election since the 1950’s and I see no evidence that this trend will be bucked. Nor do I see any evidence that they will improve their number of seats.

  24. “According to the polling average on this site there has been a 4-4.5% swing from Conservative to Labour since the last election so even if there were a “5% swing” to the Conservatives as Frederic suggests, that would only get us back to about the same position as May 2010!”

    The main problem for Labour is that it looks like they’re going to lose around 30-40 seats to the SNP. They make only make 30-40 gains in England & Wales, so they’d be treading water overall.

  25. The bigger problem for Labour, despite the swing from Conservative to Labour is that they increasingly look like losers. The Scottish narrative won’t help. Miliband consistently polls far worse than Cameron on the who is the better leader/PM question.

    It is a bit like having a losing football manager, eventually confidence drops and he can do no good.

    If supporters think you are losing, they are less inclined to help deliver leaflets, tell their friends and family which way they will vote or give money.

  26. That sounds like wishful thinking. There are plenty of Labour Party activists on the ground, more than any other party (except in Scotland), and Labour is still slightly ahead in terms of poll averages. The party does not look like a loser at the moment to anyone looking at the polls. Of course, this could change, but there hasn’t been much change in the last month, and there are only 2 to go until the dissolution comes.

  27. In response to Simon, and others, the key point is that the Tories will massively outspend Labour in the run-up to the election. And we are already seeing sustained and intensive attacks on Labour by newspapers like the “Daily Mail” and “TheTImes”. Don’t forget that many voters are not that connected to political debate and make their decision in the immediate run-up to the election. I would have said on election day but many of them now simply fill in what they feel at the time on a postal balot paper and send it back. Their election involvement lasts about five minutes.

    1935 was a classic case where Labour was behind, but not that far behind, but the Tories bliiped at the time of the election and got a landslide. Again, in 1983 Labour was doing badly, but they did far worse on General Election day than at the local elections a month before, There was a landslide.

    GT has a good point. It is crucially important for Labour to campaign on the streets given the hostility to them of big business and the media. But the feedback from the grassroots is that Labour is having difficulty in getting people to leaflet, canvas etc.

  28. That just isn’t true Frederic. Where did you hear that?
    I have been on numerous canvasses in 2 key seats already, and the turnout for canvasses & general level of organization has been extremely impressive. Party membership has continued to rise albeit slowly. It is known to almost all observers that Labour’s ground organization is far better than that of the other main UK-wide parties, though in Scotland the SNP are in better organizational shape than Labour after their surge in not only votes but also membership.

  29. Barnaby: I don’t doubt that you’re right overall, but I would note that in my constituency I’ve heard very little indeed from Labour. Door-knocking and street pounding works better in some areas than others, and given the transient, often working nature of Cambridge’s population it may not work well here. I’ve had two Green, two Liberal, and one Tory communication since Christmas and nothing from Labour, which should be a concern in a marginal seat which they should be aiming to win.

    In short, I’m not sure that street campaigns can wholly counter or replace leafleting at least, and I’ve seen worryingly little of that from them.

  30. As at 7 Feb2015 predictions:
    Labour 283
    Conservatives 282
    SNP 37
    Liberal Democrats 24
    UKIP 2
    GRN 1
    CON. 282

    LADBROKES (over/under line)
    LAB 298
    CON 265

  31. How would the SNP cope with going from such an anti establishment (anti Westminster) party to becoming part of the establishment though anti several fold increase on their current 6 MP’S?

    The SNP have made clear that their Westminster contingent will remain their B Team but some their ambitious new MP’S won’t see themselves that way.

    If the SNP win 40 seats will the 6 old boys and girls be able to maintain discipline over the 34 new boys and girls (that will include Alex Salmond) or will there be power struggles?

    Will Westminster be playing the SNP game or will the SNP play Westminster’s Game?

  32. As with most things in this election, no one can be very sure. Do you think Miliband will (or can) form an alliance of coalition with SNP.

    THIS is assuming that LAB gets a clear lead in seats over CON.

  33. the last thing mili wants is the snp holding him by the goolies, but it looks increasingly likely that he will have to rely on them in some form.

    Labour need to have a post Mili strategy, because it’s obvious to me that he is leading them to disaster. Even if he gets to be PM, which is likely, a lib lab govt. propped by the snp has got to be a Tory dream, esp. if they get a better leader.

    This period of British politics has been uninspiring, with mediocre managerial leaders at the helm…the public sense it, that’s why neither of the big parties is getting much more than a third of the electorate, a pitifully low figure which nobody forsaw before last year.

  34. Ladbrokes betting odds.
    Further 9 SNP gains; following ASHCROFT FEB poll.

    Paisley & Renfrewshire
    Lanark & Hamilton East
    Glasgow North West
    Glasgow SouthEast
    Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow
    Airdrie & Shotts
    Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintolloch
    EastMotherwell & Wishaw

    Going by favourites in the betting:  Scotland only result would be (with the changes since 2010)

    39 SNP (+33)
    16 Lab (-25)
    3 LD (-8)
    1 Con (n/c)

  35. Where is North Midlothian? I have never heard of such a constituency.

  36. It’s due south of Greater Pedanticshire

  37. According to the Scotsman, there is some disagreement over where Labour should be focusing resources in Scotland:

    “One senior figure said: “We really need to forget about places like Airdrie and Shotts or Margaret Curran’s seat [Glasgow East]. We have probably lost those. We should probably hold on to Willie’s [Bain] seat [Glasgow North East]. At this rate he will be the next Scottish secretary because there will be nobody else left standing.””

  38. The article lists 19 Labour seats that Labour could realistically hold if they targeted their resources effectively. The list includes Ochil which technically is their most vulnerable to the SNP but had a substantial NO vote. One Labour MP suggests that Labour should abandon Glasgow (except I assume Glasgow NE).

  39. i should have thought that some of the glasgow seats are capable of being saved. central & east look very hard though, and south not a lot easier. north-west, south & south-west ought to be in play still. mind you, what do i know.

  40. I think having no party above 35% has nothing to do with the leadership. It is simply that the electorate is so much more fragmented and so no one party can gain the sort of suppirt they used to maintain

  41. “I think having no party above 35% has nothing to do with the leadership. It is simply that the electorate is so much more fragmented and so no one party can gain the sort of suppirt they used to maintain”

    I couldnt’ disagree more…in 1974 we had an unprecedented situation where both labour and the conservatives got less than 40%, you could have said exactly the same thing then replacing 40% with 35%…of course you know who came and smashed through…i can see a similar situation in the uk in 5 years…a charismatic leader of either the tories or labour could get 40% within the next 10 years.

  42. Barnaby

    I agree with you. Central, East, South and North look a very difficult task for Labour.

    They look to be in the lead and North East and should be able to hold out there.

    They should have a good chance in South West too, although the SNP will no doubt have the numbers on the ground, particularly considering the overlap with Sturgeons seat.

    I’m unsure about North West. I think it might just be slipping from their grasp. Partick has probably gone SNP, so it depends if there’s any Labour activity in Drumchapel and Scotstoun. I have my doubts.

    Of course, the next problem for Labour will be that, if the SNP feel their on course to win most of those Glasgow seats, they’ll throw everything at North East and could snatch it.

  43. Barnaby

    I agree with you. Central, East, South and North look a very difficult task for Labour.

    They look to be in the lead in North East and should be able to hold out there.

    They should have a good chance in South West too, although the SNP will no doubt have the numbers on the ground, particularly considering the overlap with Sturgeons seat.

    I’m unsure about North West. I think it might just be slipping from their grasp. Partick has probably gone SNP, so it depends if there’s any Labour activity in Drumchapel and Scotstoun. I have my doubts.

    Of course, the next problem for Labour will be that, if the SNP feel their on course to win most of those Glasgow seats, they’ll throw everything at North East and could snatch it.

  44. I think Labour are stupid throwing resources at all of their 41 seats but the SNP should not too much effort into Glasgow NE because the could let Labour win NW and SW.

  45. The truth is that the SNP will have a lot of human resources in Glasgow to throw anywhere they like.

    If the situation is like Ashcroft’s polling has shown, the divvying up of the city could work well for them.

    Glasgow North activists (if safe) could be encouraged to go out in Glasgow North West.
    Glasgow South activists (if safe) could be encouraged to go out in Glasgow South West
    Glasgow East activists (if safe) could be encouraged to go out in Glasgow North East
    And Glasgow Central activists (if safe) could be encouraged to go wherever needed.

    I know that’s very simplistic, but I don’t think there’s much danger of the SNP spreading their resources too thinly in Glasgow.

  46. Further to Deepthroat’s post of 11 February, oddschecker now has SNP odds on in all Scottish seats except the following:

    Ayr, etc (SNP evens, Lab 6/4)
    Ayrshire Central (Lab 8/11, SNP 11/8)
    Berwickshire, etc. (LD 6/4, Con 15/8, SNP 4)
    Coatbridge, etc (Lab 13/18, SNP 6/5)
    Dumfries & Galloway (Lab 5/4, SNP 6/4, Con 9/2)
    Dumfriesshire, etc (Con 10/11, SNP 2)
    Dunfermline (Lab 19/29, SNP 6/4)
    East Lothian (Lab 1/2, SNP 2)
    Edinburgh N (Lab 4/6, SNP 13/8)
    Edinburgh S (Lab 9/10, SNP 6/4)
    Edinburgh SW (SNP 26/19, Lab 6/4)
    Glasgow NE (Lab 4/9, SNP 2)
    Glasgow SW (Lab 4/5, SNP 11/10)
    Glenrothes (Lab 5/6, SNP 13/8)
    Kirkcaldy (Lab 5/6, SNP 5/4)
    Orkney & Shetland (LD 2/17, SNP 9/2)
    Paisley & Renf S (Lab 4/6, SNP 6/5)
    Renf E (Lab 4/9, SNP 9/4)
    Ross, etc (LD 4/6, SNP 5/4)
    Rutherglen, etc (Lab 1/2, SNP 9/4)

    If the favourite won every seat, that would give SNP 41 (+35), Lab 14 (-27), LD 3 (-8), Con 1 (=).

  47. The Scottish situation shows the folly of the main parties targeting their effort in successive elections and neglecting their base and no-hope seats.

    Occasionally a new party emerges and polls very strongly for a while, before declining as a General Election approaches. It looks as if the SNP will do what the SDP or Greens have failed to do and turn its surge in support into seats. The other parties have themselves to blame. Their share of the vote in Euro election has been unconvincing and their core supporters have got out of the habit of voting for them at every opportunity.

    People move from no-hopers to marginals and there must be many Scots in London who have never seen a Conservative or southerners in University towns who have never seen a Labour campaigner before.

    The two main parties need to reach over their local campaigns and address the whole nation. It worked for John Major , who won when not expected to
    and Tony Blair who won many Conservative heartland seats that were unexpected. Little chance though.

  48. I often imagine it must be a shock for students from the Home Counties going to Northern university towns and finding themselves in very left wing environments. I would think their parents are all staunch Conservatives but their peers may not be.

    I live in a strongly Tory ward in a slightly marginal Labour seat and I’ve realised the strategy of the latter – Get Out The Vote? – is just to focus on their ‘core’ vote and ignore large parts they perceive as unlikely to vote for them. How much parties bother to campaign in ‘safe’ seats is a matter for conjecture.

  49. [email protected] have the Oddschecker odds been adjusted with last weeks Ashcroft polls?

    Just the SNP lead was fairly large……13%….which is inconsistent with the odds…..Edinburgh SW (SNP 26/19, Lab 6/4)

  50. @Dalek

    It only seems to be Betfair where the SNP are still odds against in Edinburgh SW.

    Using Ladbrokes only (since that’s who Deepthroat used last month), SNP are odds on in all seats except:

    Ayrshire Central (Lab 8/11, SNP evens)
    Berwickshire, etc. (LD 6/4, Con 6/4, SNP 9/4)
    Coatbridge, etc (Lab 8/13, SNP 6/5)
    Dumfries & Galloway (Lab 5/4, SNP 5/4, Con 4)
    Dumfriesshire, etc (Con 2/5, SNP 2)
    Dunfermline (Lab 1/2, SNP 6/4)
    East Lothian (Lab 1/3, SNP 2)
    Edinburgh N (Lab 4/6, SNP 11/10)
    Edinburgh S (Lab 4/7, SNP 6/4)
    Glasgow NE (Lab 4/11, SNP 2)
    Glasgow SW (Lab 4/6, SNP 11/10)
    Glenrothes (Lab 5/6, SNP 5/6)
    Kirkcaldy (Lab 5/6, SNP 5/6)
    Orkney & Shetland (LD 1/8, SNP 4)
    Paisley & Renf S (Lab 4/6, SNP 11/10)
    Renf E (Lab 4/11, SNP 9/4)
    Ross, etc (LD 4/7, SNP 5/4)
    Rutherglen, etc (Lab 1/2, SNP 6/4)

    SNP odds on in 41 seats. Splitting up the others (allocating 0.5 seat to each where there is a co-favourite) gives SNP 42.5, Lab 12.5, LD 2.5, Con 1.5.

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