Labour Defence List

These are the hundred current Labour seats with the lowest majority in order of their percentage majority. This does not necessarily mean that the top of the list will would be the most vulnerable Labour seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Labour party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Cambridge Majority 599 (1.1%)
8. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
9. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
10. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
11. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
12. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
13. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
14. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
15. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
18. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
19. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
20. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
21. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
22. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
23. Edinburgh South Majority 2637 (5.3%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Burnley Majority 3244 (8.1%)
40. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bermondsey & Old Southwark Majority 4489 (8.8%)
47. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
48. Bristol West Majority 5673 (8.9%)
49. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
52. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
53. Heywood & Middleton Majority 5299 (10.9%)
54. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
55. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
56. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
57. Dagenham & Rainham Majority 4980 (11.6%)
58. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
59. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
60. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
61. Cardiff Central Majority 4981 (12.9%)
62. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
63. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
64. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
65. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
66. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
67. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
68. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
69. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
70. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
71. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
72. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
73. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
74. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
75. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
76. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
77. Tynemouth Majority 8240 (15.4%)
78. Rother Valley Majority 7297 (15.5%)
79. Cardiff West Majority 6789 (15.5%)
80. Norwich South Majority 7654 (15.8%)
81. Nottingham South Majority 6936 (15.9%)
82. Cardiff South & Penarth Majority 7453 (16%)
83. Birmingham, Yardley Majority 6595 (16%)
84. Wolverhampton North East Majority 5495 (16.2%)
85. Stalybridge & Hyde Majority 6686 (16.3%)
86. Stoke-on-Trent Central Majority 5179 (16.6%)
87. Lancashire West Majority 8360 (16.9%)
88. Bradford South Majority 6450 (17.1%)
89. Bradford East Majority 7084 (17.1%)
90. Sedgefield Majority 6843 (17.7%)
91. Bassetlaw Majority 8843 (17.9%)
92. Huddersfield Majority 7345 (18.1%)
93. Llanelli Majority 7095 (18.3%)
94. Ashfield Majority 8820 (18.6%)
95. Birmingham, Selly Oak Majority 8447 (18.7%)
96. Hornsey & Wood Green Majority 11058 (19.1%)
97. Warrington North Majority 8923 (19.6%)
98. Swansea West Majority 7036 (20%)
99. Brent North Majority 10834 (20.8%)
100. Leicester West Majority 7203 (20.9%)
Comments - 461 Responses on “Labour Defence”
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  1. A guide by Labour HQ on how to beat the threat of UKIP has been released today. Not only does it refer to voters in disparaging terms but also shows that they are avoiding talking about immigration.

    This will make some f these defences much more difficult.

    link to document here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11293433/Revealed-Labour-MPs-told-not-to-campaign-on-immigration-in-secret-Ukip-strategy-document.html

  2. John Humphrys has also put the boot in:

    The veteran presenter admitted that the last Labour government’s controversial immigration policy was not sufficiently ‘interrogated’ by the BBC, saying: ‘The Labour government underestimated by a factor of ten the number of people who were going to move from Poland.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2873484/Radio-4-s-John-Humphrys-admits-BBC-ignored-mass-immigration-fearing-branded-racist-critics.html#ixzz3Lvlite11
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  3. “Not only does it refer to voters in disparaging terms but also shows that they are avoiding talking about immigration.”

    What’s the point of Labour constantly harping on about immigration – or the Tories for that matter. Neither party can trump UKIP for those voters who are obsessed about immigration. Believe it or not there are other huge issues at stake in the election however, indeed some of us believe such issues are far more important than wasting time on arguing about immigration when in reality nobody, even UKIP, has a chance of “controlling” it.

  4. Party focusses campaign on areas of strength, plays down areas of weakness.

    Colour me shocked.

  5. On another note

    Smithson has a good post about the SNP being currently favourites to win a stunning 4 out of 41 labour seats in scotland.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/12/14/the-snp-is-betting-favourite-to-win-in-just-4-of-the-41-lab-held-scottish-seats-see-chart/#vanilla-comments

    The betting market is clearly not buying into the SNP hype….as people have pointed out here, labour’s majorities are huge generally over 20% …current models (election forecast) are suggesting that SNP will win 30+ seats next May…there’s clearly a mismatch. If the SNP can only win 4 labour seats, they will be lucky to get 15 seats altogether.

  6. This will make some f these defences much more difficult.

    Which ones exactly? specifics please…can’t stand the generalised cr*p we get all the time on ukpr.

  7. Murphy will get the show back on the road. He’s the first big beast to lead Scottish Labour since Donald Dewar and he will do well enough to keep most of Labour’s seats IMO.

  8. H.Hemmelig is broadly correct. ‘Swing back’ in Scotland will help Labour. (Meanwhile in England it will favour the Tories and the Lib Dems). Insurgent parties like the SNP and UKIP rarely do as well when the big day comes round.

    We can say with near certainty that Labour will win the most seats in Scotland and the Tories the most seats in England.

    As for immigration, the BBC have always reported this as a negative thing. If Labour are not confident that they can make a positive case for immigration then from a purely electoral point of view perhaps it is best for us to avoid the issue and just talk about our strong points. It disappoints me, though.

  9. What happened in Ireland after 1914?

  10. We have such high immigration at the moment because we have the fastest growing economy in the EU. I would personally prefer to live in a growing economy with high immigration than a stagnant economy with little immigration. Maybe others would choose differently, but that is the choice we face. In today’s highly globalised and interconnected world with an ageing population you cannot be a high-growth country without having high immigration, and for UKIP (and increasingly the Tories and Labour) to suggest otherwise is a fraud.

  11. How much “swingback” to Labour in Scotland are you anticipating? Given that the SNP are twenty points ahead in the most recent poll, it seems likely that more than just a bit of competent leadership will be required to sort everything out for Labour.

    While I don’t think that the end result will be the SNP twenty per cent clear, I don’t see why a large movement of support from the SNP to Labour is inevitable. The main shift seems to have been that those who voted Labour in 2010 and SNP in 2011 have moved over fully to the SNP. Jim Murphy is not well placed to persuade this group to return to Labour. The main hope for Labour seems to me to be the “two horse race” argument, but I think that has less impact than it may have done in the past.

  12. ok, then simon, get your general point. how many actual seats will the SNP GAIN from labour, in your view? we get so many general remarks on this website…

    I offer you a menu of SNP gains from labour 0-4; 5-9; 10-14; 15-19; 20-24; 25 +

    which is it in your view?

  13. I’ll go for 15-19, but that’s just based on putting my best guess on the final percentages into Electoral Calculus. A few points either way can make a big difference though.

  14. the betting markets clearly aren’t following you on this one, simon.

  15. True, although there are a lot of seats where Labour are at about 4/6 and the SNP are something like 11/10, which suggests to me that the bookies don’t really know what’s going to happen. That’s also supported by the fact that the SNP are 3/1 or shorter in just about every Scottish Labour seat, suggesting that the bookies think there’s a realistic chance of them winning pretty much everywhere. Also, from past experience, the bookies are not always that great at pricing up Scottish seats.

  16. We have had endless reports of labour wipeout…the first polls suggested that the SNP would gain all but a handful of seats in Scotland…I still think this is way over-hyped.

  17. @Robin Hood

    A period of rest on the moral posturing front from all parties would be welcome.

  18. The bookies still suggest that Labour will lose only Dundee W, Ochil and Falkirk and perhaps Aberdeen N.

    Why do the pollsters and the bookies disagree so much….Labour retaining 10 to 12 seats to 37 or 38 of 41.

    Are the bookies odds out of date or do they expect the SNP to collapse between now and May.

    I think the final result will be somewhere in the middle.

  19. What crystal ball are the bookies using when they suggest that Labour will only lose Dundee West, Ochil and Falkirk? If they are not using the opinion polls, what are they using? They must be expecting a massive change in voting intentions compared to the current polls if they think that Labour will only lose three seats to the SNP. On what basis do they think that that is going to happen? If SNP supporters think that the polls are not only right now but also predict the outcome of the election they will, presumably, be submitting massive bets on the bookies being wrong. That should, in turn, affect the odds, should it not?
    I do not know how long this website has existed but I wonder how many of the people who are predicting the outcome of the general election correctly predicted the number of Lib Dem seats for 1997. By which I indicate caution for those who are predicting that the SNP can’t do as well as some are saying just because there has never been such a change of that size in the past. As someone once said, always expect the unexpected. I doubt that people south of the border were making predictions for the outcome of the Scottish elections in 2007 and 2011 but, if they were, I doubt many would have predicted such large SNP gains. Who would have predicted that the SNP would have won an overall majority of the seats in 2011? Who would have predicted that the SNP would have won such ‘safe’ Labour seats as Clydebank and Milngavie or Strathkelvin and Bearsden? Just be careful about saying that XYZ can’t possibly happen just because it has never happened before. Incidentally, if you can pronounce Milngavie and Bearsden correctly you are qualified to comment on Scottish seats.

  20. Bookies odds can be very wrong….before 2010 they predicted a Con Gain in East Renfrewshire when Labour increased their majority from 6500 to 11000.

  21. Clearly if the current polls are borne out there will indeed be massive SNP gains, irrespective of the enormity of many of the Labour majorities in central belt constituencies. We simply can’t tell if there will be a swing back to Labour or not, and if so how great it will be. One can only presume that the bookies think there will be one of some magnitude. It has happened before that Labour has outperformed its opinion poll situation in Westminster elections in Scotland, but on current form it would have to be by a very great deal. Much will depend on how scared Scots are of there being a Tory government.
    I have been told that Milngavie is pronounced something like Mullnguy. Perhaps you’d care to tell me whether I’m anywhere near. Opinions can differ as to correct Scottish placename pronunciation. I have, for example, been to Culross, the National Trust village in Fife, and some claim it’s pronounced just as it’s written, others that it’s supposed to be Kewruss or thereabouts.

  22. Labour’s argument in the past was that voting SNP split the Labour vote and let Tories in. In 1992 this has some reasonance in Strathkelivin & Bearsden and Edinburgh South and Eastwood and Aberdeen South in 2001 where Labour consolidated their position having successfully campaigned on this argument. There are now no Lab Con marginals left in Scotland and today people switching from Lab to SNP in significant numbers will not will not result in a fear of the Conservatives gaining seats in Scotland. In the few semi Safe Labour seats where the Conservatives do still come second (East Renfrewshire, Stirling, Dumfries ect) surely the SNP would more ahead of the Conservatives anyway if there was a large switch from Lab to SNP?

  23. Milngavie is pronounced something like Mullguy. And I think the bookies have pretty limited expertise on Scottish seats really. I think their odds are based more on a feeling that the current opinion polling is either inaccurate or will change before May, although I don’t think that’s based on very much more than a general disbelief that Yes/SNP voters actually mean what they say coupled with there being more money backing the non-SNP candidates. I think there’s pretty solid value in back in the SNP in a number of different seats.

  24. Dalek

    I believe the only seat where the SNP are further behind the Toriea than the Tories are behind Labour is Dumfries and Galloway. Therefore, vote SNP, get Tory could only hold true in that seat.

  25. agree with Dalek : the argument that a vote for anyone other than labour will let tories in is now null and void. Labour would do better abanoning these requests for tactical voting. SNP are offering a future which is what they have to compete with. Was shocked to see the size of Labour predicted ‘wipeout’.

  26. No NI tread here so here are my thoughts.

    I think that SF will take Belfast North from the DUP and the DUP will regain Belfast East from the Alliance.

    The latter will be down to the Alliance being perceived as more sympathetic to the nationalist cause in a Unionist constituency.

    In respect of the former the increasing indigenous Irish population relative to the Scottish English descended Northern Irish will result in Belfast North finally being lost. These demographic changes will also result in Derry West becoming more marginal.

  27. Ment Derry East (Derry West is Foyle).

  28. If Labour lose the election as the polls suggest, what do you all think about Diane Abbott as a replacement?

  29. The polls don’t suggest Labour losing the election, despite the best efforts of David Cameron (by way of Natalie Bennett). But don’t be ridiculous.

  30. D,Alex

    It’s one bl**dy poll…i think the tories will lose because they get really excited by single polls! remind me of the romney challenge to the presidency in 2012, where republicans would jump on any scrap of good cheer, and then ended up questioning the validity of the polls!

  31. Ok: ignore the first part – who would be a good candidate for the next leader of the Labour Party? Do you think that Ed might resign and David might come back and contest Doncaster so he could go for the leadership? Do you think that Abbott would make a good leader?

  32. Don’t be stupid. No and no.

    Stella Creasy, Chuka Umunna, Sadiq Khan would probably contest. I’d back Khan of the three, followed by Creasy. Not sure who else.

  33. Mr Nameless,

    I know you’re a labour party activist, but aren’t you a tad concerned…these are appalling numbers for a party that’s the main opposition less than four months before an election

  34. Yes, since you ask, it does concern me. It concerns me that so many people on the left of centre seem to have lost their heads. But I’m also deeply worried about the future of the people who in my view need a change of government (although I accept you would disagree – that’s not what we’re here for).

    Are there things Labour could have done to stop it? Some, but I think you misunderstand the nature of the current Green and UKIP (and formerly Lib Dem) vote.

    There is roughly a good quarter of the electorate (and has been for about four decades now, since the Liberal breakthrough in 1974) who turn again and again to parties which promise a new dawn, a new way of doing politics and a new approach that hasn’t been tried ever before. They’re why Tony Blair won so big.

    Such people are difficult to keep on board any party, especially when spending constraints mean that neither big party can promise to radically reshape society in the way Attlee or Thatcher did. If they did – well, the Lib Dems show us what happens when a party breaks its promises.

    It’s difficult to see how either party can wriggle out of this. UKIP and the Greens have stolen the oxygen of opposition from Labour and the solid Tory base has cracked badly. The traditional base of Labour (older, working class trade unionists) seems relatively solid but it is insufficient. You claim to want introspection but at some point this comes down to that old right-wing ideal of personal responsibility. There are simply people out there who for whatever reason are attracted to a party that can promise them what they want without a chance of being able to enact it.

  35. Newspapers are reporting that currently, Labour are due to lose 15 seats they would otherwise have won due to the Green Surge. Compass is calling for Labour to now adopt Green Policies.

  36. By lose, I mean not win as opposed to being upseated by a Green. Any idea on what seats may be at risk?

  37. In many respects this list in practice should not include and Labour constituencies in Greater London other than Hampstead but Labour majorities of up to 45% in Scotland

  38. 🙂

  39. And should be any…..smartphone….

  40. Today I’ve had another look at the odds on Scottish seats at Ladbrokes.

    The SNP are now favourites in 22 seats, and joint favourites in three.

    According to Ladbrokes, Labour are set to lose:
    Ochil & S. Perthshire
    Dundee West
    Falkirk
    Aberdeen North
    Glasgow North
    N. Ayrshire & Arran
    Livingston
    West Dunbartobnshire
    Lithgae & E. Falkirk
    Edinburgh East
    Aberdeen South

    And are tied in Glasgow Central, Stirling and Inverclyde.

    Livingston and Inverclyde have come in a lot over the past two weeks. Glasgow South West has also come in from 4/1 to 2/1.

  41. this is not crazy. i think labour could lose 10 seats to the SNP, but would be surprised if it’s more than that.

  42. All these seats would seem obvious contenders with the exception of Glasgow North, Aberdeen South and Glasgow SW.

    Glasgow SW is an ultra safe Labour seat. Is the view that many people who supported Tommy Sheriden ‘ s various parties (Scottish Militant Labour, SSP and Solidarity will vote SNP in May?

  43. In my opinion, Glasgow North is one of the most likely seats in the country to go SNP. After Dundee, the West End of Glasgow was the National Centre of Yes. Then, if we add to that the fact that Maryhill was the largest Yes-voting part of the city at 57%, the SNP have got quite a good base there.

    As for Glasgow South West, I imagine the seat might be quite close (although it should go Labour) due to the Sturgeon factor. A large part of Sturgeon’s Southside seat (Govan) falls within Glasgow South West. The fact that the MSP for Pollok, Johann Lamont, also recently criticised the way the Labour Party is run could also have an effect in the area. In the same seat, 53.9% voted Yes, and the fact that the local MP is viewed as an arch-Unionist might not go down well.

    In reality, the number of safe Labour seats in Scotland is quite small. I would say:
    Kirkcaldy, Coatbridge, Rutherglen, East Lothian, Glasgow NE, Glasgow NW, E Renfrewshire.

    And on the other hand, the number of very likely SNP gains is also small:
    Ochil, Dundee W, Falkirk, Livingston, Linlithgow, Glasgow N, Aberdeen North.

    That means that, to varying degrees, there are 27 seats left to play for. I would expect to see the largest “swings” (if such a thing exists) in Central Scotland along the M9-M8 corridor, and for places like East Kilbride and Cumbernauld to see big rises in the SNP vote. The other seat I would add to the above list of seats where the SNP are favourites is Kilmarnock & Loudoun, where I can see the SNP winning by some margin.

  44. Has anyone collected all the available info on more detailed breakdowns of the referendum results. I know Edinburgh published Weatminster constituency results and I’ve seen comments that suggest some other authorities published similar breakdowns.

  45. http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/

    If you turn on the Westminster and Holyrood constituencies on the above map you will see that only a very small part Glasgow Southside is in Glasgow South West (Ibrox). Most of Glasgow Southside is in Glasgow Central and much (Langside, West Pollokshields and Battlefield) is in Glasgow South.

    Govan and Drumoyne were moved to Glasgow Pollok in 2011 (hence the renaming of Sturgeons constituency).

    I agree about Labour’s challenge in Kilmarnock where the SNP won by nearly 6000 (18%) in 2011,

  46. Excellent site. I’d never come across it before.

    You’re quite right. Glasgow Southside seems to be more aligned with the Southern part of Glasgow Central. It’s worth pointing out, however, that Sturgeon was MSP for the entire Govan area between 2007 and 2011, so I would imagine she still has some kind of hold over the area.

    Regarding the referendum breakdown, the results were published on a council-by-council basis. Some councils such as Edinburgh and Glasgow chose to publish their results by Holyrood Constituency. However, the majority only published the overall Yes and No vote for the local authority region as a whole.

  47. January Survation poll for the City of Glasgow has –

    SNP 41.3
    Lab 25.1
    Con 11.0
    LD 5.5

    If the SNP are outpolling Labour by almost 2 to 1 then that could suggest that the SNP could be a threat to Labour in more than 1 of the cities 7 constituencies.

    I regard the Tory vote as very high, considering that is the level of support they got in their best constituency (Glasgow South in 2010). Given a lost deposit in Glasgow East, I would imagine that the average Tory vote in Glasgow in 2010 would have been around 8%.

  48. The Liberal vote is high, too. It would be expected that they will struggle to keep their deposit even in Glasgow North.

    I would imagine that the 17% that are undecided will be withering between Labour and SNP. That would take the Tory and LD votes down slightly as a result.

    However, I’m cautious with crossbreaks.

  49. I would imagine most of the 17% undecided would go UKIP or Green…..both should have 5 to 10% in Glasgow. UKIP beat the Conservatives in a number of Glasgow Holyrood seats at the Euros. While some YES Greens may vote SNP the could take ex-LD votes from people who don’t vote Tory/ Lab/ SNP.

  50. What about Glasgow South as a possible SNP gain?

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