Labour Defence List

These are the hundred current Labour seats with the lowest majority in order of their percentage majority. This does not necessarily mean that the top of the list will would be the most vulnerable Labour seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Labour party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Cambridge Majority 599 (1.1%)
8. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
9. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
10. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
11. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
12. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
13. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
14. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
15. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
18. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
19. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
20. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
21. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
22. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
23. Edinburgh South Majority 2637 (5.3%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Burnley Majority 3244 (8.1%)
40. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bermondsey & Old Southwark Majority 4489 (8.8%)
47. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
48. Bristol West Majority 5673 (8.9%)
49. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
52. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
53. Heywood & Middleton Majority 5299 (10.9%)
54. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
55. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
56. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
57. Dagenham & Rainham Majority 4980 (11.6%)
58. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
59. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
60. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
61. Cardiff Central Majority 4981 (12.9%)
62. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
63. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
64. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
65. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
66. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
67. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
68. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
69. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
70. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
71. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
72. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
73. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
74. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
75. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
76. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
77. Tynemouth Majority 8240 (15.4%)
78. Rother Valley Majority 7297 (15.5%)
79. Cardiff West Majority 6789 (15.5%)
80. Norwich South Majority 7654 (15.8%)
81. Nottingham South Majority 6936 (15.9%)
82. Cardiff South & Penarth Majority 7453 (16%)
83. Birmingham, Yardley Majority 6595 (16%)
84. Wolverhampton North East Majority 5495 (16.2%)
85. Stalybridge & Hyde Majority 6686 (16.3%)
86. Stoke-on-Trent Central Majority 5179 (16.6%)
87. Lancashire West Majority 8360 (16.9%)
88. Bradford South Majority 6450 (17.1%)
89. Bradford East Majority 7084 (17.1%)
90. Sedgefield Majority 6843 (17.7%)
91. Bassetlaw Majority 8843 (17.9%)
92. Huddersfield Majority 7345 (18.1%)
93. Llanelli Majority 7095 (18.3%)
94. Ashfield Majority 8820 (18.6%)
95. Birmingham, Selly Oak Majority 8447 (18.7%)
96. Hornsey & Wood Green Majority 11058 (19.1%)
97. Warrington North Majority 8923 (19.6%)
98. Swansea West Majority 7036 (20%)
99. Brent North Majority 10834 (20.8%)
100. Leicester West Majority 7203 (20.9%)
Comments - 461 Responses on “Labour Defence”
  1. BT SAYS : “….those who looked at the data UNDERLYING the polls AND smelt the coffee / listened to the anecdotes, were a lot closer…”

    The main shift in the polls I noticed which I thought was very significant – potentially – was the increasing number of young people stating they wete intending to vote.

    At the same time I noticed that older people were less likely to vote (compared to 2015). Although this was only a small decrease I thought it was significant.

  2. I don’t trust most anecdotal evidence but the argument that young people would turn out in greater numbers this time made a great deal of sense to me.

    So where You Gov said that they were modelling their polls on 2010 turnout (with somewhat higher numbers of young voters) rather than 2015, this seemed to me to be reasonable.

    But I think many of us were hard-wired to believe that polls “always” overstate Labour or underestimate the Tories. My own predication of a Tory majority of 40 (which is out there in one of these threads) was based on believing or hoping that the pollsters had probably got it about right this time in downweighting the level of Labour support.

  3. One hard piece of information that alerted me to a potential upset was the Daily Telegraph reporting last month that 1.05 million 18-24 year olds had added their names to the electoral register since Theresa May had called the election.

    :why do this (given the changes to the electoral system), unless you had a serious intention of voting

    :who were these young people most likely to vote for (I decided it was Labour)

    :what did this mean in relation to the opinion polls being published (quite possibly that they would seriously overstate Tory chances).

  4. Remarkable that the first Labour loss on this list was number 18 and the top 8 will be well down the new list.
    And that the Torries won 56 on this list and were 20 votes of 54.

  5. First Labour loss was No 17 Derbyshire NE.Labour held No 16 Harrow West by a wide margin.

    It was not really a surprise that labour held those right at the top, particularly after polling had shown a big swing to Labour in London, but there are others such as Halifax, Newcastle -u-lyme and Barrow which looked near certain losses.

  6. Survation poll for Mail on Sunday shows Lab on 45% and the Tories on 39%.

    I would obviously treat polls so soon after the actual result with a bit of caution but it is rather interesting, and the first time Lab have exceeded Cons in a poll for quite a while I suspect (and Survation were almost spot on for the General Election).

  7. The “winner” almost always gets a short lived poll boost immediately after the election – an ominous sign indeed for the Tories.

  8. Of course this is the first election in a long while where the Winning party is having leadership speculation and advisers resigning.

  9. ‘The “winner” almost always gets a short lived poll boost immediately after the election – an ominous sign indeed for the Tories.’

    I think you’re reading too much into this post-election Survation poll.

    Whatever the actual tally of seats was, GE2017 feels like a loss for the Tories, while Labour are celebrating and appear to enjoying the ‘halo effect’ which winners usually receive.

  10. George Osborne former Chancellor of the Exchequer and current editor of Tory supporting Evening Standard says:
    “She’s a dead woman walking and I don’t know how long she’ll last on death row”.

    That is the one of the harshest language ever used from a ex / front line politician (imo).

  11. Osborne has enjoyed this election more than anyone except the corbynista clique

  12. It occurred to me that there was quite a bit of speculation pre election re what the composition of the new PLP would be but nobody has really looked now that we actually have the results in.

    From what I gather the “moderates” have been further marginalised, the biggest winner once again was the soft left who seem to make up the lions share of new MP’s but surprisingly there have actually been quite the influx of new Corbynista’s particularly in the seats gained from the Tories where I imagine the moderates (anticipating electoral disaster) were happy to let more left wing candidates contest the seats and own the results. By my count about a quarter of Labs gains were made by Corbynista’s and when you add in the soft left they make up the vast majority of new Lab MP’s leaving just a handful of new “moderates”

    Basically this election has further marginalised the “moderates” in the PLP and I’ve read that Corbyn’s office are now actually confident they could get a left winger onto a future leadership ballot without lowering the nomination threshold.

  13. I saw a list of new Corbynistas MPs couple of days ago of the 34 new MPs at least 8 or 9 are corbynites

  14. Did someone really predict that the Tories would win Greenwich? Now, that really is sheer lunacy. Especially with Charlton & the 2 Woolwich wards in it. Torfaen, Nottingham N & Brent N are also utterly ludicrous. At least Brent N has some apparent Tory potential in its social composition, and Nottingham N was won by the Tories within my memory, but Torfaen? How could anyone seriously have thought that? Even the ludicrous prediction of Labour winning Chelsea & Fulham which the unfortunate Ian McIntosh made in 2010 looks better than any of those now.

  15. Matt
    Correct, indeed I saw one claim that it could be as high as 12 with a further 15 or so being on the soft left with just 2 confirmed Blairites. Personally I think this can only be a good thing, Lab has always been a broad church but I do believe that “moderates” have been vastly overrepresented within the PLP ever since the 97 election, thankfully that influence has been progressively waning since 2010.

  16. Barnaby
    Sadly yes, people were laying heavily into Plop for ramping Tory prospects but I have to say he was by no means the worst, several peeps here (not naming names but they are still psoting) cluttered the threads in the first few weeks of the campaign with predictions that the Tories could win practically every seat under the sun leading me to joke at one point that people should just get it over with and go to the Liverpool Walton thread and claim “the Tories might have a chance here”

    As far as I can tell the methodology of these people was as follows…
    Every seat with a smaller than 20% Lab majority will go Tory
    Every seat the Tories have ever won will once again go Tory
    Every seat that voted more than 60% for Brexit will go Tory
    Every seat that was more than 60% Remain will see a Lib surge splitting the left vote and thus will go Tory
    Every seat where there is any sign of gentrification will go Tory
    Every seat with above average income levels will be so repulsed by Corbyn they’ll go Tory
    And finally the odd seat not mentioned yet that will surprisingly go Tory

    Little did they realise that this basically encompassed 200 out of Labs 230 seats.

  17. Yes, the third-wayers have been overrepresented with respect to the membership – I’m not so sure they are so overrepresented with respect to Labour voters, many of whom felt that Labour was the lesser of two evils at this election.

  18. Rivers: this are a polling site. People here looked at the polls. They drew the obvious conclusions. Being proven wrong does not mean that they were stupid or blinded by their own prejudices.

    This was a unique election. Normally the polls do not move much over an election period. If there is movement, it is slight and normally towards the governing party. That suggested that a Tory landslide was inevitable. This election was totally unique as the main opposition party surged hugely, taking votes from both the government and other opposition parties. That’s never happened before.

    Many psephologists woke up on June 9th, feeling rather like Richard Dawkins would feel if he learned that the Earth really was only 6,000 years old and God had put the immaculately preserved fossil record there as a test of his followers’ faith. They had followed the evidence, applied logic and reasoning, and had been shown to be utterly wrong when other people’s blind, unjustified convictions had been vindicated. It’s quite an annoying feeling.

    One thing I will say though, which is where the analogy breaks down. The people who predicted the polls would narrow are the very same people who effected that change. Rather than bemoan their fate, they got off their backsides and did something about it. That deserves an immense amount of respect.

  19. Polltroll
    “I’m not so sure they are so overrepresented with respect to Labour voters, many of whom felt that Labour was the lesser of two evils at this election”

    In regards to their wariness of Corbyn yes I agree but when it comes to policy I completely disagree, the manifesto really was a game changer for us, we had so much to talk about on the doorstep and it all went down brilliantly, what was particularly heartening was when we got people quoting some of our policies back to us unprompted and saying they were going to/seriously considering voting for us because of them. I still think on the whole Corbyn was a liability but the manifesto was one of our greatest assets.

    “People here looked at the polls. They drew the obvious conclusions”

    That’s the point though they didn’t, I made this exact comment before the election that “some people don’t seem to be able to distinguish between a 15 point Tory lead and a 40 point Tory lead”
    I had no beef with people predicting Tory wins in Bishop Auckland, Bristol East or Coventry NE cos it was sensible, the polls suggested it would happen and consequently I more often than not agreed with them. what I objected to was when people predicted Tory wins in seats that even 20 point Tory leads showed were not in play. Such predictions reeked of laziness on behalf of those that made them, you could sense the thought process involved was along the lines of “last time there was a Tory landslide they won this seat so they’ll win it again” or “65% of people in this seat voted for Brexit so most of them will probably go Tory this time” it was plain silly and totally ignored the nuances of each seat

    So I have to emphasise I’m not slating those that predicted a Tory landslide cos for a period I was amongst them, I’m slating those who were basically predicting (intentionally or unintentionally) the death of the Labour party and a 200+ seat Tory majority.

  20. Rivers is right on the manifesto. It was well received and helped divert the conversation away from people’s misgivings around Corbyn.

  21. @ Rivers

    “people were laying heavily into Plop for ramping Tory prospects but I have to say he was by no means the worst”

    He was certainly among the worst, although as you say many others continued to believe that a 100 + majority or a ‘1987-type result’ was likely. What really compounded this was him boasting after the election of the correctness of his predictions when in reality he had been miles out on the overall result. My posts to him of 10th June above should be seen in that context.

  22. I slowly came to the conclusion that Maxim Parr Reid is a deeply unpleasant individual and I’m glad he’s gone.

    In a way I think the whole Tory campaign came across a bit like Maxim and it motivated many people through sheer anger to wipe the smile off their gloating faces.

  23. James]
    Plop certainly was amongst the worst but I think his biggest crime was that he ramped incessantly for the year precluding the election while others didn’t and thus he had painted a target on his back since everyone knew his opinion while others who only laid out their thoughts once the election was called largely flew under the radar despite their predictions being vastly more ridiculous than anything Plop came out with.

    I repeat I’m not having a go at people who predicted a 1987 style result or even people who predicted a 1935 style result, what I’m having a go at are the people who seemed to be predicting a 1931 style result, I say seem cos I genuinely believe they didn’t even realise how badly they had Lab doing, they just commented on a load of seats saying “Lab will probably lose this” and didn’t extrapolate as to what such losses would mean nationally, that’s what I personally find to be most worthy of ridicule especially when even the worst polling for Lab was not predicting anything like a 1931 style result.

  24. HH
    “I slowly came to the conclusion that Maxim Parr Reid is a deeply unpleasant individual and I’m glad he’s gone”

    He did come across as a real prat from time to time (and I was very much on the receiving end of that more than once) but didn’t he have Asperger’s or something? If true I suppose you have to give him “some” leniency.

  25. I don’t think he is necessarily unpleasant. Just irritating and nowhere near as bright as he thinks he is. He’s also very old fashioned and provincial for a young personn in 2017 (saying that he didn’t like the ‘type’ of people in Brighton- I mean for ffs)(

  26. Rivers- Maxim claimed to have autism. No idea obviously as to whether that was true or not. I would have thought it would be a very high functioning form
    Of autism for him to be reading a non- science/ maths subject at Oxford, but maybe that is too simplistic.

  27. @ Polltroll

    “Many psephologists woke up on June 9th, feeling rather like Richard Dawkins would feel if he learned that the Earth really was only 6,000 years old and God had put the immaculately preserved fossil record there as a test of his followers’ faith. They had followed the evidence, applied logic and reasoning, and had been shown to be utterly wrong when other people’s blind, unjustified convictions had been vindicated.”

    I have to disagree with that. Many of those expecting large Tory majorities did so on the basis that UK Polls always understate the Tories and overstate Labour. When it got to 8th June, those polls were, on average, showing little or no swing from 2015, and even on the basis of ‘the evidence’ the most likely result was a small Tory majority, boosted by gains in Scotland and Labour’ most leave-voting marginals.

    Those who follow polls should have been aware of the type and effect of adjustments which most pollsters were making and been able to make meaningful conclusions as to how effective these were. They should also have been aware of the changes which several pollsters made during the course of the election campaign which shifted the outputs in the Tories direction. And there was other evidence such as the YouGov MRP model which people here largely chose to dismiss out of hand when it (correctly) showed surprise Labour gains.The evidence was there – it was just that most people preferred to trust their own judgement.

    This, from the week before the election, is well worth a read.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

  28. Just to emphasis the final part of the article from 3rd June linked above:

    Final polls showed an average Con lead of 6.9%, after the pollsters adjustments – which therefore showed zero swing from 2015. However, the raw data underlying this was a lead of 2.3%, and it was that which proved to be closest to the actual result.

  29. Conumdrum for pollsters: 2015 methodology closest to 2027 result while 2017 methodology closest to the 2015 result. Survation clearly got some gold standard

  30. Of course the pollsters didn’t herd in 2017 as they did in 2015, so the outcome of the election was a mixed result for the polling industry as a whole.

    GE2017 has also created a number of ‘what if’ questions:

    As Rivers has mentioned above, it final results show that the predictions of a really massive majority were never at all likely. Even if you apply uniform National swing of 9% to the actual result – so as to re-create a Tory lead of just over 20 points, the outcome would be about 390-395 seats for them and a majority of 130 to 140. Of course, given that the polls understated Labour, there never really was a 20 point lead in reality, and with a ‘corrected’ lead of around 15 points the Tories would have had a majority of a little short of 100.

    And if you apply a swing of 2.2% so as to put the actual results in line with the pollsters’ final average Con lead of 6.9%, the outcome would have been a Tory majority of 24, rising to 31 if you take into account Sinn Fein’s abstention.

  31. Yes, okay, still expecting the Tories to get a 3-figure majority on polling day itself was completely unfounded. But a month before that it was a commonplace expectation, and my point was that at that point it was reasonable to expect voting intentions to remain broadly stable and the Tories to cruise home.

    “Of course, given that the polls understated Labour, there never really was a 20 point lead in reality”

    But the Tories really did have a 20-point lead! The locals proved that.

  32. Well, not quite. The local election were roughly commensurate with a Tory lead nationally of 11% according to John Curtice.

  33. Well, not quite. The local election were roughly commensurate with a Tory lead nationally of 11% according to John Curtice.

    Correct. there was still an epic collapse between 4th May and 8th June…you would have to look at what happened between those dates to explain the cause of the tory failure.

  34. The ‘net equivalent vote’ from the local elections on 4th May was:

    Con 38%
    Lab 27%
    LibDem 17%

    It is normal for the LibDems to exceed their Westminster VI, and for the Tories to do less well, because of Independents and others in a number of council areas – an the 11 point lead contrasted to about 18 points in polling around the first week of May – it had been even higher in April.

    I still stand by the simple observation that polling showed the Tory lead shrinking by 10 to 12 points during the campaign. Therefore with an actual lead of 2-3 points in the final result it seems reasonable to me to conclude that the Tories were close to 15 points ahead 6-7 weeks earlier – not 20 points.

    The alternative it to be believe that the polls were right in April, but somehow became 5 points adrift during the campaign.

  35. Survation also had an 11 point lead post snap election declaration

  36. They did indeed, but that was as much out of line with other pollsters as their final pre-election poll was in putting the Tories just 1 point ahead.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

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