Labour Defence List

These are the hundred current Labour seats with the lowest majority in order of their percentage majority. This does not necessarily mean that the top of the list will would be the most vulnerable Labour seats in practice, nor that they are the seats the Labour party will be putting the most effort into defending.

1. City of Chester Majority 93 (0.1%)
2. Ealing Central & Acton Majority 274 (0.5%)
3. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)
4. Brentford & Isleworth Majority 465 (0.9%)
5. Wirral West Majority 417 (0.9%)
6. Halifax Majority 428 (1%)
7. Cambridge Majority 599 (1.1%)
8. Ilford North Majority 589 (1.2%)
9. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)
10. Barrow & Furness Majority 795 (1.8%)
11. Wolverhampton South West Majority 801 (2%)
12. Hampstead & Kilburn Majority 1138 (2.1%)
13. Enfield North Majority 1086 (2.3%)
14. Hove Majority 1236 (2.4%)
15. Dewsbury Majority 1451 (2.7%)
16. Lancaster & Fleetwood Majority 1265 (3.1%)
17. North East Derbyshire Majority 1883 (3.9%)
18. Harrow West Majority 2208 (4.8%)
19. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)
20. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Majority 2268 (4.9%)
21. Westminster North Majority 1977 (5%)
22. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)
23. Edinburgh South Majority 2637 (5.3%)
24. Tooting Majority 2842 (5.3%)
25. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)
26. Birmingham, Northfield Majority 2509 (5.9%)
27. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)
28. Gedling Majority 2986 (6.2%)
29. Eltham Majority 2693 (6.2%)
30. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)
31. Copeland Majority 2564 (6.5%)
32. Birmingham, Edgbaston Majority 2706 (6.5%)
33. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)
34. Coventry South Majority 3188 (7.3%)
35. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)
36. Darlington Majority 3158 (7.7%)
37. Delyn Majority 2930 (7.8%)
38. Blackpool South Majority 2585 (8%)
39. Burnley Majority 3244 (8.1%)
40. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)
41. Scunthorpe Majority 3134 (8.5%)
42. Bristol East Majority 3980 (8.6%)
43. Newport West Majority 3510 (8.7%)
44. Southampton, Test Majority 3810 (8.8%)
45. Chorley Majority 4530 (8.8%)
46. Bermondsey & Old Southwark Majority 4489 (8.8%)
47. Bishop Auckland Majority 3508 (8.9%)
48. Bristol West Majority 5673 (8.9%)
49. Coventry North West Majority 4509 (10%)
50. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)
51. Bolton North East Majority 4377 (10.2%)
52. Bury South Majority 4922 (10.5%)
53. Heywood & Middleton Majority 5299 (10.9%)
54. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)
55. Wirral South Majority 4599 (11%)
56. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)
57. Dagenham & Rainham Majority 4980 (11.6%)
58. Batley & Spen Majority 6057 (12%)
59. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)
60. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)
61. Cardiff Central Majority 4981 (12.9%)
62. Exeter Majority 7183 (13.3%)
63. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)
64. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)
65. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)
66. Ellesmere Port & Neston Majority 6275 (13.5%)
67. Luton South Majority 5711 (13.5%)
68. Hammersmith Majority 6518 (13.6%)
69. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)
70. York Central Majority 6716 (14.1%)
71. Worsley & Eccles South Majority 5946 (14.1%)
72. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)
73. Walsall South Majority 6007 (14.4%)
74. Birmingham, Erdington Majority 5129 (14.8%)
75. Leeds North East Majority 7250 (15%)
76. Slough Majority 7336 (15.2%)
77. Tynemouth Majority 8240 (15.4%)
78. Rother Valley Majority 7297 (15.5%)
79. Cardiff West Majority 6789 (15.5%)
80. Norwich South Majority 7654 (15.8%)
81. Nottingham South Majority 6936 (15.9%)
82. Cardiff South & Penarth Majority 7453 (16%)
83. Birmingham, Yardley Majority 6595 (16%)
84. Wolverhampton North East Majority 5495 (16.2%)
85. Stalybridge & Hyde Majority 6686 (16.3%)
86. Stoke-on-Trent Central Majority 5179 (16.6%)
87. Lancashire West Majority 8360 (16.9%)
88. Bradford South Majority 6450 (17.1%)
89. Bradford East Majority 7084 (17.1%)
90. Sedgefield Majority 6843 (17.7%)
91. Bassetlaw Majority 8843 (17.9%)
92. Huddersfield Majority 7345 (18.1%)
93. Llanelli Majority 7095 (18.3%)
94. Ashfield Majority 8820 (18.6%)
95. Birmingham, Selly Oak Majority 8447 (18.7%)
96. Hornsey & Wood Green Majority 11058 (19.1%)
97. Warrington North Majority 8923 (19.6%)
98. Swansea West Majority 7036 (20%)
99. Brent North Majority 10834 (20.8%)
100. Leicester West Majority 7203 (20.9%)
Comments - 451 Responses on “Labour Defence”
  1. The thing with remain/leave is that probably no-one had a clear idea being a nationwide thing with different areas reporting different things and unknown turnout variations.

    But in individual constituencies someone must have a better clue and maybe word gets around a bit more. We always get a few posts after an election from people on here saying “I saw that coming”.

    Trouble is that any-one giving information at this stage on a forum probably has a “winning here” agenda to promote. That’s why I wondered if it was just mugs like me betting on instinct or odds on individual constituencies reflecting a bit more local knowledge of the campaign and canvassing returns.

    Some of the ones I mentioned really seemed marginal on UNS and yet you can get odds that give you a fair bit back.

    Are people actually putting serious money on these individual constituencies that would shift odds or are they mainly people like me throwing a few pounds around for a bit of excitement?

  2. I think they could be in with a shot of losing 70, but I’d expect it to end up in the mid-40s or so, maybe even a bit less.

  3. I have just looked fairly randomly at a couple of seats Labour are defending. They appear to be well ahead tin Easling and Acton. They are just ahead in North East Derbsyhire. Newcastle Under Lyme is a “toss up”, but Labour seem to be just ahead.

    It seems to be that the seats LAbour just lost in 2015 are going both ways; whilst Labour is doig reasonably well at holiding the seats they narrowly won in 2015.

    All this is according to YouGove estimates, and I am aware that people are posting that these have their limitations.

    It appears that Labour are picking up a few seats, probably enough to prevent the Conservatves from having a majority; but perhaps not even enough to make Labour the largest party.

  4. I hope I can be excused for a brief moment of self promotion on the eve of polling day, its fairly rare that I predict something correctly and even more so when such a prediction goes against the grain of collective opinion but (unless the polls are unfathomably wrong) I do appear to have called something right.

    Well over a year ago (back when Lab was polling appallingly) the consensus amongst peeps here was that this was just the tip of the iceberg for Lab, that the public were hardly paying attention and when an actual campaign started and they began to focus on how much of a terrorist sympathising Marxist loon Corbyn was (aided by the supposed secret dossier the media were compiling and preparing to unleash) his polling would dip even further

    At the time I called that out as probably wrong, I argued that the media had in no ways been going easy on JC and had probably already spent all the ammo they have on him, and indeed throughout this campaign all the smears by the press have been the same re-hashed stories they’ve been spewing since the moment he became Lab leader, nothing new, no secret recording of JC plotting to assassinate the Queen etc. As for the public perception of JC I argued that peeps here were right to point out the public were not paying a huge amount of attention and that was to Corbyn’s detriment not his benefit, the public were being drip fed a constant stream of negative headlines on Corbyn but were not paying enough attention to see the other side of the story, I argued that when the campaign began properly and they began to focus they’d see Corbyn and his policies for what they were and not what they were being portrayed as and consequently his ratings could only improve. And so I appear to be vindicated on that front, over the course of the campaign the average Tory lead over Lab has been cut in half and Corbyn’s own approval ratings have risen in excess of 30 points.

    At the end of the day though I still think the Tories will win comfortably, I just wanted to point out that I was the lone voice here who claimed things could only get better for Lab during the campaign and I appear to have called it right. Anywho shameless self promotion over 🙂

  5. FS – if you believe Labour are ahead in Newc-under-Lyne (or indeed any of several Staffs seats) you could indeed make a lot of money.

  6. Rivers10 – if you believe that to be true (I don’t: Labour have simply attracted some Green & LD support and not Tories to narrow the 2 horse race) and JC has had a good campaign, does that mean he’ll therefore take responsibility for the outcome?

    That’s the one Q no-one from HQ would answer from several national journalists last night.

    Or will they have a day off and then revert to blaming the media and that it’s all been the fault of some kind of Jewish conspiracy?

  7. Rivers10: fair play in sticking by your beliefs – in fact I’m rather less certain than you are of a Tory majority at this point! Nonetheless you must admit the Conservatives have had an awful campaign and that has probably helped Labour more than anything they have done themselves.

  8. ”All this is according to YouGove estimates, and I am aware that people are posting that these have their limitations.”

    They more than have their limitations they are completely junk. Even if you believe the 42-38 split the results will look very different to the figures YouGov has seemingly pulled out of mid air.

  9. Rivers- I think it’s more the Tories and the Lib Dems have run absolutely disastrous campaigns as opposed to any strength that Corbyn has. If you foresaw their campaigns being as abysmal as they have been then fair play but I don’t think that was something many people saw coming.

    As for the IRA it is having an effect but perhaps not so much on the Labour vote. But it is holding the Tory vote together and as I said on another thread the ‘vote against Corbyn’ is bringing home voters who dislike May/been alienated by the Tories for whatever reason (Brexit, Tory campaign, May, ‘dementia tax’ etc.). If Labour had a more amenable leader I think given how bad the Tories campaign has been/how weak May has been you would have won.

    But I think final judgement is best reserved for Friday morning.

  10. True, we’re not electing a mate.

    As I think HH reminded us, polls showed many voters who disliked Maggie voted for her Party.

    Equally I know many voters will still vote Labour even though they hold diametrically opposed views to JC, JMc on immigration, crime and so on but that habit hasn’t eroded everywhere.

  11. “…the figures YouGov has seemingly pulled out of mid air.”

    YouGov have provided a detailed explanation of their methodology. The weakness which they acknowledge is that it will not take account of local factors which did not affect the result in 2015- I guess an example of this might be Kate Hoey’s supposed unpopularity in Vauxhall.

    Nevertheless it does provide some idea of the differing swings in different parts of the country. And with a sample of over 55,000 it should at least be able to identify both the overall picture and the overall regional picture with some accuracy.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/

  12. “FS – if you believe Labour are ahead in Newc-under-Lyne (or indeed any of several Staffs seats) you could indeed make a lot of money”

    Correct.
    🙂

  13. You also believed this :

    Thomas
    How many do you think Labour will lose of these seats?
    April 21st, 2017 at 4:56 am
    Plopwellian Tory
    60-80
    April 21st, 2017 at 6:21 am

  14. Fair enough.

    Plopwellian Tory
    CON 390
    LAB 180
    SNP 42
    LDEM 12
    June 8th, 2017 at 8:43 am

  15. …and if that wasn’t bad enough you even predicted a Con gain in Hove which Labour won with a 32% majority.

    Plopwellian Tory
    CON gain from LAB: City of Chester, Halifax, Wirral W, Dewsbury, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Wolvs. SW, Barrow & Furness, Hove, Enfield N, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Walsall N, Wrexham, NE Derbyshire, Wakefield, Middlesbrough S & E Cleveland, Copeland, Stoke South, Eltham, Bridgend, B’ham, Northfield, Blackpool S, Darlington, Bishop Auckland, Harrow W, Scunthorpe, Clwyd S, S’oton, Test, Chorley, Hyndburn, Newport W, Coventry NW, Coventry S, Mansfield, Stoke N. Gedling.
    June 5th, 2017 at 7:45 pm

  16. Actually I can’t find anyone else who predicted CON short of overall majority:

    ‘PREDICTIONS:
    ALEX F / DEEPTHROAT
    CON 324 LAB 251 LD 10 SNP 43. CON MAJ: NONE
    JACK SHELDON:
    CON 364 LAB 211 LD 12 SNP 41. CON MAJ: 78
    H HEMMELIG:
    CON c. 360 Lab c. 210 LD 9 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 70
    TORY;
    Con 348 Lab 225 LD 9 SNP 45. CON MAJ: 50
    SURREYMANC:
    CON 384 Lab 190 LD 5
    SURREY POLITICS:

    Twitter Predictions: CON MAJ
    @MattSingh_ 98
    @TSEofPB 106
    @paulmotty 82
    @IainDale 122
    @Election4castUK (ft.@ChrisHanretty) 82
    Nigel Marriott 1002/ Predictions:
    @LordAshcroft (2017 MRP) 78
    @ElectoralCalculus (Martin Baxter) 72
    @RoadTo326 122
    @electiondata 124
    @DPJHodges 1103/ Predictions:
    @Andrew_Lilico 158
    @KeiranPedley 60 (midpt)
    @JantaLipinsky 80
    @MSmithsonPB 56 (midpt)
    @colinrtalbot 744/ Predictions:
    @StephenDFisher (combined) 66
    Fisher (polls-based) 48
    @GoodwinMJ (implied) 80
    @britainelects 60″

    Posted 8th June

  17. ” If you make predictions as often as I do some are bound to be off beam. ”

    Don’t flatter yourself.

    That list shows 6 out of 36 right for your Lab gains from Con. If you make predictions as often as you do, it is inevitable that some will be correct.

  18. I think people should stop laying into Plop, yes he did ramp Tory prospects and I certainly hope he learns from this as once again he has an almighty dollop of egg on his face but at the end of the day he’s been no worse than most of the pundits who clutter up our TV screens, newspaper pages and websites yet most peeps will still cling onto their every word going forward. Also as I pointed out a few weeks back Plop wasn’t even the worst culprit for Tory ramping. Several peeps here predicted Tory wins in Wallasey, Greenwich, Sunderland Central, Nottingham North, Sefton Central, Torfaen and Brent North amongst other seats. Plop at least had the sense to call that out as bullcrap and I distinctly recall him doing so.

    I just repeat the old saying “a week is a long time in politics”
    Plus another line I stole from a video game but its very appropriate “Nothing is true, everything is permitted”

    With that in mind people should just be very careful when they make predictions.

  19. 1. Posters shouldn’t be making long term predictions or even ones 7 weeks out from polling day (not these days anyway although you could have got away with it pre 2014)

    2. No one should be quoting those predictions back at a poster.

  20. Quite honestly, if the answer is Tory or Labour, even random prediction by flipping a coin could be right 50% of the time. To only get 6 out of 36 right, and refuse to hear criticism, goes a bit far.

  21. We made predictions based on polls, which with only a few exceptions turned out yet again to be hideously wrong. And wrong in the opposite direction to last time.

  22. Yes. And even the doorstep was wrong. A Labour friend of mine who had worked in Ilford North was convinced even two weeks ago Wes Streeting would lose narrowly but it turned out to be held by 9000 majority and that from his day in Eltham was convinced it fall to the Torries easily. Others were laughing at the Idea of a Labour Gain in Brighton Kempstown.
    A couple got it right – One experienced campaigner in Swansea got the Labour Majoirity in Gower accurate and another predicted only Stoke South would fall of the Stoke seats.

  23. True. However, those of us that looked at the data UNDERLYING the polls AND smelt the coffee / listened to the anecdotes, were a lot closer with our final predictions.

    Some ‘experts’ did go to a lot of trouble on their analysis of the underlying data, but DIDN’T smell the coffee otherwise and therefore maintained the wrong assumption to the last regarding turnout of the young – leading to their almost universally wrong predictions of medium to v large Con majorities.

  24. Deepthroat’s prediction once again was excellent.

  25. ……and some people apparently just looked at the polls they most liked (the ones showing the biggest Tory lead) and then made endless pronouncements as though they were an oracle – only to pass the buck when proved wrong.

  26. BT SAYS : “….those who looked at the data UNDERLYING the polls AND smelt the coffee / listened to the anecdotes, were a lot closer…”

    The main shift in the polls I noticed which I thought was very significant – potentially – was the increasing number of young people stating they wete intending to vote.

    At the same time I noticed that older people were less likely to vote (compared to 2015). Although this was only a small decrease I thought it was significant.

  27. I don’t trust most anecdotal evidence but the argument that young people would turn out in greater numbers this time made a great deal of sense to me.

    So where You Gov said that they were modelling their polls on 2010 turnout (with somewhat higher numbers of young voters) rather than 2015, this seemed to me to be reasonable.

    But I think many of us were hard-wired to believe that polls “always” overstate Labour or underestimate the Tories. My own predication of a Tory majority of 40 (which is out there in one of these threads) was based on believing or hoping that the pollsters had probably got it about right this time in downweighting the level of Labour support.

  28. One hard piece of information that alerted me to a potential upset was the Daily Telegraph reporting last month that 1.05 million 18-24 year olds had added their names to the electoral register since Theresa May had called the election.

    :why do this (given the changes to the electoral system), unless you had a serious intention of voting

    :who were these young people most likely to vote for (I decided it was Labour)

    :what did this mean in relation to the opinion polls being published (quite possibly that they would seriously overstate Tory chances).

  29. Remarkable that the first Labour loss on this list was number 18 and the top 8 will be well down the new list.
    And that the Torries won 56 on this list and were 20 votes of 54.

  30. First Labour loss was No 17 Derbyshire NE.Labour held No 16 Harrow West by a wide margin.

    It was not really a surprise that labour held those right at the top, particularly after polling had shown a big swing to Labour in London, but there are others such as Halifax, Newcastle -u-lyme and Barrow which looked near certain losses.

  31. Survation poll for Mail on Sunday shows Lab on 45% and the Tories on 39%.

    I would obviously treat polls so soon after the actual result with a bit of caution but it is rather interesting, and the first time Lab have exceeded Cons in a poll for quite a while I suspect (and Survation were almost spot on for the General Election).

  32. The “winner” almost always gets a short lived poll boost immediately after the election – an ominous sign indeed for the Tories.

  33. Of course this is the first election in a long while where the Winning party is having leadership speculation and advisers resigning.

  34. ‘The “winner” almost always gets a short lived poll boost immediately after the election – an ominous sign indeed for the Tories.’

    I think you’re reading too much into this post-election Survation poll.

    Whatever the actual tally of seats was, GE2017 feels like a loss for the Tories, while Labour are celebrating and appear to enjoying the ‘halo effect’ which winners usually receive.

  35. George Osborne former Chancellor of the Exchequer and current editor of Tory supporting Evening Standard says:
    “She’s a dead woman walking and I don’t know how long she’ll last on death row”.

    That is the one of the harshest language ever used from a ex / front line politician (imo).

  36. Osborne has enjoyed this election more than anyone except the corbynista clique

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