Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5223 (9.9%)
Labour: 17654 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 1150 (2.2%)
SNP: 27628 (52.2%)
UKIP: 1237 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 9974 (18.9%)

Category: Semi-marginal SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife. Part of the Fife council area.

Main population centres: Kirkcaldy, Cowdenbeath, Kelty, Lochgelly, Burntisland, Kinghorn, Dalgety Bay.

Profile: Kirkcaldy is the biggest town in Fife, once the world leader in the manufacture of Linoleum but more recently an administrative, service and retail centre for the wider Fife area. Other settlements includes the coastal towns of Burntisland, Kinghorn and Dalgety Bay, and the former coal mining areas of Cowdenbeath and Kelty.

Politics: Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath was one of the safest Labour seats in Scotland, best known for being represented by former Chancellor and Prime Minister Gordon Brown, but like many seats thought inpregnable it fell to the SNP in their 2015 landslide.

Current MP
ROGER MULLIN (SNP) Former education consultant and professor. Contested Paisley North 1990 by-election, 1992. First elected as MP for Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 4258 (9%)
Lab: 29559 (65%)
LDem: 4269 (9%)
SNP: 6550 (14%)
Oth: 1166 (3%)
MAJ: 23009 (50%)
Con: 4308 (10%)
Lab: 24278 (58%)
LDem: 5450 (13%)
SNP: 6062 (15%)
Oth: 1698 (4%)
MAJ: 18216 (44%)
Con: 3013 (11%)
Lab: 15227 (54%)
LDem: 2849 (10%)
SNP: 6264 (22%)
Oth: 804 (3%)
MAJ: 8963 (32%)
Con: 4779 (14%)
Lab: 18730 (54%)
LDem: 3031 (9%)
SNP: 8020 (23%)
Oth: 413 (1%)
MAJ: 10710 (31%)

2015 Candidates
DAVE DEMPSEY (Conservative) Born Kirkcaldy. Fife councillor. Contested Cowdenbeath 2013 Scottish Parliament by-election.
KENNY SELBIE (Labour) Local government officer. Fife councillor.
CALLUM LESLIE (Liberal Democrat) Born Kirkcaldy. Educated at Balwearie High School and Edinburgh University. Writer and broadcaster.
JACK NEILL (UKIP) Educated at Inverkeithing High School and West of Scotland University. Student.
ROGER MULLIN (SNP) Professor and education consultant. Contested Paisley North 1990 by-election, 1992.
Comments - 360 Responses on “Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath”
  1. Inverkeithing and Dalgety Bay by-election, 06.09.18:

    Conservative & Unioinist 2,309
    SNP 1,741
    Labour 744
    Liberal Democrat 566
    Independent 40
    Libertarian 13

    Conservative Gain.

    43.1% Turnout.

  2. This is affluent commuter territory for Edinburgh i.e. Aberdour and Dalgety Bay etc with Inverkeithing in the next door consituency being a bit more working class.

    Strong consistent pattern of Tories continuing to do very well in Scottish by elections this year across the board with slightly lackluster results for the SNP and poor results for Lab.

    Points to the Tories holding all their existing 13 seats at the next GE (with the possible exception of Stirling and hoping to pick up Perth and Argyll).

  3. The SNP has suspended its candidate here.
    On You Gov the SNP have a seven point lead. Could be elected while suspended from their party.

  4. Why the suspension?

  5. For Alleged Anti – Semitism.

  6. The SNP have un-suspended Neil Hanvey.

  7. Neil Hanvey has followed Kenny McAskill and defected to the Alba Party. He’s now in the ChangeUK-esque situation of being on his third party label of the parliament.

    I wonder how much of a problem Alba is going to be for the SNP. The parties’ relationship seems analogous to how UKIP once threatened the Conservative Party – cast your mind back to 2013/14 and commentariat consensus was that UKIP was going to be a big problem for the Tories’ electoral chances. That turned out not to be the case, or if it was it was outweighed by other factors; but this is partly because UKIP helped force a realignment in British politics that suited the Tories. But the equivalent realignment has already happened in Scotland, so surely the only effect of Alba could be to erode the SNP’s base, at least at Westminster where FPTP is currently such a blessing to the party.

    I no longer think there will be an SNP majority in May, but there will almost certainly be a pro-independence majority between the SNP, Greens and Alba.

  8. Alba are only contesting list seats. Parties most vulnerable to Alba gains on the list are unionist parties

  9. Oh yeah, for Holyrood their strategy makes sense. The Greens have been pulling this trick for ages, Alliance for Unity are attmepting to play the game on the other side. In a sense it is progress for Scotland to be moving to a Catalan system where, while there still clear unionist and nationalist parties, at least each side has multiple options. Westminster might be different though.

    The other thing is, over the long term, this makes it harder for the SNP to maintain that 40% floor which is helping them control the political narrative in Scotland, and it also amplifies divisions within the Yes-voting coalition. So, while I think the Alba Party itself is a bit nutty, I think its emergence is good for Scottish democracy, and probably good for Scottish unionism too.

  10. That’s a pretty good take. Better than the Scotsmans Salmond is trying to game the system. We’re probably seeing what happened in Ireland where the Irish nats pretty much split into a number of different parties. Its fairly inevitable when you’ve got such a dominant force with such a large coalition of people. I think while we still have the FPTP element I see the SNP holding a large number of votes in the constituency ballot even if the PR ballot becomes competitive. In NI STV has meant many parties have entered the mainstream like the DUP, TUV, SF, etc. and have even supplanted the previously dominant SDLP and UUP.

    I’d be interested to see what happens in Wales when they introduce STV

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