Kingston & Surbiton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 23249 (39.2%)
Labour: 8574 (14.5%)
Lib Dem: 20415 (34.5%)
Green: 2322 (3.9%)
UKIP: 4321 (7.3%)
TUSC: 174 (0.3%)
Others: 198 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2834 (4.8%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Kingston upon Thames council area.

Main population centres: Kingston, Surbiton, New Malden, Berrylands, Norbiton, Tolworth.

Profile: An affluent residential south-west London seat, with a high proportion of owner-occupiers and wealthy commuters. The area is deepest suburbia, stereotypically so even - the BBC sitcom the Good Life was set in Surbiton, and the Rise and Fall of Reginal Perrin in a fictionalised south London suburb that was actually Norbiton. The semi-rural far south of the seat includes the Chessington zoo and theme park..

Politics: The seat was created in 1997 from the amalgamation of the Kingston and Surbition seats. Kingston had been represented by the former Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont, who was forced to (eventually unsuccessfully) seek election in the alternative seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough. The seat was one of the most marginal in the country in 1997, but the Liberal Democrat Ed Davey built up a robust majority during here tenure, though not robust enough to survive the tide against the Liberal Democrats in 2015.


Current MP
JAMES BERRY (Conservative) Born Canterbury. Educated at University College London. Former lawyer. First elected as MP for Kingston & Surbiton in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20868 (37%)
Lab: 5337 (9%)
LDem: 28428 (50%)
UKIP: 1450 (3%)
Oth: 1028 (2%)
MAJ: 7560 (13%)
2005*
Con: 16431 (33%)
Lab: 6553 (13%)
LDem: 25397 (51%)
UKIP: 657 (1%)
Oth: 712 (1%)
MAJ: 8966 (18%)
2001
Con: 13866 (28%)
Lab: 4302 (9%)
LDem: 29542 (60%)
GRN: 572 (1%)
Oth: 811 (2%)
MAJ: 15676 (32%)
1997
Con: 20355 (37%)
Lab: 12811 (23%)
LDem: 20411 (37%)
Oth: 618 (1%)
MAJ: 56 (0%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JAMES BERRY (Conservative) Born Canterbury. Educated at University College London. Lawyer.
LEE GODFREY (Labour) Educated at Parmiters School and Lancaster University. Energy consultant.
EDWARD DAVEY (Liberal Democrat) Born 1965, Mansfield. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Management consultant. MP for Kingston and Surbiton 1997 to 2015. Parliamentary under-secretary for business 2010-2012. Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change since 2012.
BEN ROBERTS (UKIP) Teacher.
CLARE KEOGH (Green) Educated at Kingston University. University advice worker.
DANIEL GILL (CPA)
LAUREL FORGARTY (TUSC) Academic.
Links
Comments - 282 Responses on “Kingston & Surbiton”
  1. Got it.

  2. Guido reported that Mr Davey was in full time campaign mode back in November 2014.

    A Whitehall source whispers to Guido: “He spends just two days in the department and the rest of time clinging to his seat.”

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/12/davey-diverts-his-energy/

  3. LD – 43
    CON – 42
    LD – 7
    UKIP – 6
    GREEN – 1
    OTHER – 1

  4. *LAB – 7

  5. Davy by 56 anyone? Probably be a bit more about 1500.

  6. not a bad shot. I think perhaps about 2,750?

  7. I expect Daveys majority to drop to around 3,000 there will be more tactical unwind from LD to Lab here than in SC and CW.

  8. Visited friends near Tolworth yesterday….their street full of Lib Dem stakes in front gardens, nothing from the Tories visible at all.

  9. Ed Davey’s page on the BBC’s election website:

    http://s1.postimg.org/idxxhdw5b/Ed_Davey1997.png

  10. Tolworth is one of the LDs’ best areas in the constituency. There’s also a council by-election there, as there is in Grove ward. In terms of being ahead of the Tories, probably only Norbiton is a stronger LD area. Chessington S ward is also pretty strong for them.

  11. Sorry for the frivolous post.

  12. LD HOLD

    LD – 40
    CON – 33
    LAB – 13
    UKIP – 8
    O – 7

  13. PATRICK23 there is no way Labour will only get 7% this isn’t Sutton and Cheam. For a start though a well healed seat overall it has a lot more social housing particularly in Norbiton were Labour won two seats plus it had areas that used to be Labour inclined like Tolworth and Chessington with both have grim areas too rather like the western part of Epsom and Ewell. The centre of Tolworth is actually a bit of a dive there’s nowhere in Sutton that looks as awful as that. Though Tolworth and Chessington generally have a lot of nice 1930s semi suburban semi-detached houses and expensive as it has a KT postcode as well as being on the South West Trains line. It’s not elite rich like neighbouring Elmbridge or other parts of Kingston.

  14. LD hold 4000

  15. Lib Dem Hold. 2,000 maj

  16. Davey loses.

  17. LD wipeout soon if thats the case

  18. Christ………….

  19. I can’t quite understand this

  20. Full Result:

    Con 23,249 39.2%
    Lab 20,415 34.5%
    Lab 8,574 14.5%
    UKIP 4,321 7.3%
    Green 2,322 3.9%
    Other 296 0.6%

    Maj 2,834 : Swing 9%

  21. Can anyone offer an explanation as to why Davey loses his seat but Brake hangs on to his?

  22. “Can anyone offer an explanation as to why Davey loses his seat but Brake hangs on to his?”

    Three words: St Helier Hospital

  23. Hopefully the LD vote will slump even further now.

  24. Also it looks like UKIP made a bigger impression on the Tory vote in Carshalton & Wallington than neighbouring seats. In Croydon Central UKIP helped the Tories to hang on IMO by taking Labour votes in New Addington but they may have cost the Tories Carshalton.

  25. IMO this was one of the Lib Dems’ best results. The Tory victory was quite narrow. Joe may be right, but the Lib Dems retain a sizeable local council presence here, I suspect this is one area they will remain competitive in.

  26. ^ agree with the above, one of their top 5 targets for 2020 imo

  27. There is a perception that ‘Surrey’ is solidly Conservative but this is based on the modern county council area (that excludes most of historical Surrey but includes Spelthorne – annexed from the abolished Middlesex).

    When you add up the votes in the historical Surrey county area the Conservatives poll 43% to Labours 31% compared to 60% to 13% in the part that remains in the modern Surrey County Council area.

    There are actually 11 Labour MP’s and 1 Lib Dem MP elected in the historical county of Surrey.

    Historic County of Surrey

    Con 666,677 43.22%
    Lab 475,535 30.83%
    LD 181,263 11.88%
    UKIP 130,988 8.49%
    Green 81,751 5.30%
    TUSC 2,164 0.14%
    Others 1,975 0.13%

    Modern Surrey County Council – Part Only
    (Spelthorne was Middlesex – not included)

    Con 320,633 59.64%
    Lab 68,070 12.73%
    UKIP 66,238 12.38%
    LD 55,199 10.32%
    Green 25,286 4.73%
    Others 1,477 0.28%

    Greater London Part of Surrey
    (Kingston RBC, Sutton LBC, Merton LBC, Wandsworth LBC, Lambeth LBC, Southwark LBC, Croydon LBC, Lewisham LBC and Richmond Park wards of Richmond LBC).

    Lab 407,465 40.53%
    Con 346,044 34.42%
    LD 128,064 12.74%
    UKIP 64,750 6.44%
    Green 56,465 5.62%
    TUSC 2,164 0.22%
    Others 498 0.05%

  28. The idea that Lewisham, Southwark, Lambeth and Wandsworth can be included as historic Surrey is tripe. All were part of LCC as you well know.

  29. Wandsworth, Lambeth and Southwark were part of Surrey before 1889. Lewisham was part of Kent before 1889 as was Greenwich.

  30. And Barking, East Ham and West Ham were once parts of Essex…but all this tells us is that London has expanded hugely over the last 150 years, so that former villages and towns have become suburbs or in some cases inner city areas.

  31. Dalek Although I am a staunch defender of the real Counties I think it would better to focus on pre-1965 Surrey. Therefore I was wondering if you could please produce the results for the area of *that* Surrey that falls under Surrey CC (less Spelthorne) plus the parts that now fall under Greater London i.e. Croydon, Sutton, Merton, Kingston, and the Surrey parts of Richmond.

  32. I may be wrong but I thought at some point Penge also used to be in Surrey, as opposed to almost all the rest of Bromley which was (and arguably remains) Kent. There will be other similar anomalies making an exact calculation tricky. Nevertheless Tory has made the point more politely than me, ie going back to the 1800s for the definition of traditional counties is silly.

  33. Even the pre1965 areas of Surrey doesn’t resemble Surrey at all. Mitcham, Morden and Thornton Heath are all in the postal county of Surrey and are in fact and in contrast to Surrey proper are all complete and utter shithole towns too.

    Sutton, Cheam, Coulsdon and Kenley etc at least do resemble Northern Surrey to a degree.

  34. seemingly Penge was originally a detached part of the parish of Battersea (Surrey) becoming an urban district in Kent in 1900

    Have to agree the idea of going back to the 1800s for traditional counties is a bit weird – if you’re going to do that why not go back the the 1500s and reinstate Hexhamshire as well?

  35. I always thought Penge was in Kent myself

    The most bizarre thing of the boundary reorganisation of the 1970s was that they moved certain towns from one existing county to another – Bournemouth, Slough, Peterborough, Abingdon – to name but a few

  36. Peterborough moved county twice in ten years

    It was originally the Soke of Peterborough (part of Northamptonshire) that was merged with Huntingdonshire in 1965 before becoming part of Cambridgeshire nine years later

  37. The Bournemouth move had some logic insofar as Bournemouth and Poole had become a pretty seamless urban area (though I still think it was wrong).

    The shift of the Berkshire downs and Abingdon to Oxfordshire was very hard to justify.

  38. I’ve spoken about this at length on here before.

    The new boundaries in 1974 were meant to be a compromise between the traditional boundaries and the more radical proposals contained in the Redcliffe-Maud report.

    Transferring Abingdon to Oxfordshire was logical enough. Oxfordshire should have taken Brackley from Northamptonshire too.

    The most ridiculous anomalies were Humberside (say no more), keeping the Seisdon RD in Staffordshire, keeping Newmarket in Suffolk, putting Coventry and Meriden into the West Midlands and making Avon an shire rather than a Met county.

  39. There are also many anomalies in Greater London’s outer boundary as well.

    There is no logical explanation for Epsom and Ewell not being part of Sutton LB. It would also make sense for Dartford to be part of Bexley and for Chigwell to be part of Redbridge.

    And if you wanted to be really radical you could even add Loughton to Waltham Forrest, Caterham and Wallingham to Croydon, Spelthorne to Hounslow, Banstead to Sutton and Elmbridge to Kingston. The reduction in Surrey’s population could be made up for by adding Hart and Rushmoor from Hampshire. And you could create a London Borough of Watford, made up of Watford, Three Rivers and most of Hertsmere with Potters Bar going to Enfield.

  40. What’s the point of any of this nonsense?

  41. That should have Loughton going into Redbridge, not Waltham Forrest.

  42. surely Avon would’ve been a bit small for a metropolitan county?

  43. The point is to have a Greater London boundary that includes the whole of the built up area and which doesn’t exclude towns and suburbs on the fringes which apart from administrative geography are quite clearly part of London.

  44. I don’t particularly care if the 1972 Act was meant to be a compromise- it was still vandalism in my view.

  45. I should nevertheless add that I quite liked a lot of Adam’s proposals for local government reform that he made on this site last year- not least because many of them were rather counter-revolutionary.

  46. Not necessarily Mike. Just have a Bristol Met borough, the areas transferred from Gloucestershire as a North Avon borough (with maybe some parts of Stroud district as well)and the areas transferred from Somerset as a South Avon borough.

  47. Tory, I still think that larger whole county unitary councils are the way forward for areas outside the main conurbations. Larger counties and those bordering the conurbations need to be subdivided with the Redcliff-Maude proposals being a good starting point. I think London, the met counties and areas the already have unitary councils should be left alone (except for perhaps Rutland).

    My last few posts were about some of the mistakes that I think were made 40 and 50 years ago, not suggestions for what changes I think should be made now. Although there is a strong case for moving the London boundary closer towards the M25.

  48. A strong case based on what? You sitting in Staffordshire drawing neat lines across a map of the M25? Give me a break. Speaking of my own locality, hell will freeze over before East Surrey and the area around Gatwick allow themselves to be subsumed into Greater London.

  49. Yes it’s hard to get away from the notion that so much of this derives from people drawing nice little diagrams…and then maybe later wondering why these neat little notions don’t work out.

  50. Give me strength.

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