Leadbetter (Con) 23,009
*Davey (LD) 22,953
Dubs (Lab) 8,875
Mountshaft (UKIP) 2,281
Dollin (Green) 1,007
McGuinness (SF) 69

C majority 56
Con gain from LD

Funny you should say that Joe – just seen Alf Dubs an hour ago. He was at the Hammersmith & Fulham victory party – he seems to have moved to the borough quite recently.

Steve Mama didn’t stand in Norbiton because he wasn’t selected. He is not universally popular in the Labour Party. In answer to Peter Dalek’s question.

The Lib Dems have held the third seat in Norbiton by just 3 votes.

This is the third occasion that Norbiton has split 2 Lab and 1 Lib Dem. The two previous occasions were 1994 and 2006.

Norbiton:

Lab 1013, 988, 844
LD: 847, 796, 741

http://moderngov.kingston.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=69&RPID=13540084

2014 local election result, Kingston & Surbiton (aggregate of all votes)

Con 36.1 (-1.0)
LD 34.6 (-10.5)
Lab 17.5 (+5.2)
UKIP 6.1
Grn 5.1

Looks like Davey should still be OK next year presuming he can get a few Labour/Green switchers to vote tactically again

I’ve never thought it likely that Davey would lose though some improvement for the Conservatives is extremely likely. Quite a lot of Labour local voters in Norbiton told us they would vote for us in the local elections but couldn’t vote against Davey for Westminster & some of our rather increased band of voters in Beverley & Grove wards will be the same. Our leading candidate’s high vote in the former ward is a great testament to her popularity & standing in the community.

Was it the case that the Lib Dem vote held up reasonably well in the southern end of the borough whereas the best Tory performances came in the wards which actually form part of Richmond Park?

Incidentally, I remain of the view that Davey will hold this one next year.

“Was it the case that the Lib Dem vote held up reasonably well in the southern end of the borough whereas the best Tory performances came in the wards which actually form part of Richmond Park?”

The Tory vote share was quite lacklustre all over Kingston, falling slightly in most places. They gained seats because of Lib Dems switching to Labour and the Greens. In contrast, the Tory vote increased in most Richmond wards.

Highest vote method:

Con 15,513 (35.3%)
LD 13,259 (30.2%)
Green 5,517 (12.6%)
Lab 5,224 (11.8%)
UKIP 3,495 (8.0%)
Ind 924 (2.1%)

Meant to post that on the Twickenham thread — it was the Twickenham highest vote method result.

Kingston & Surbiton, using highest vote method:

Con 12,757 (31.5%)
LD 12,383 (30.6%)
Lab 6,619 (16.3%)
UKIP 4,916 (12.1%)
Green 3,727 (9.2%)
BNP 100 (0.2%)

Trivia time.

Was just watching a re-run of an episode of QI. Apparently, there was some Dale Winton show called ‘Touch the Truck’ back in 2001 – contestants had to keep a hand on a truck for as long as possible, and the last one left would win it. The winner, Jeremy Middleton, sold the truck to raise funds to run in this constituency that year, under the presumably one-man band ‘Unrepresented People’s Party’, getting 54 votes.

What a peculiar story.

Looks like Davey could be out.
The Stenchampstead result was split again.

Revised prediction

Leadbetter (Con) 19,110
Davey (LD) * 17,822
Helmer (UKIP) 9,740
Pell (Lab) 8,967
Pitstop (Green) 1,575
McGuinness (SF) 61

Pell? That’s a bit left field. I used to know a Simon Pell in Arts for Labour, but how on earth could YOU have heard of him?
My more serious prediction is still Davey to hold this seat. Probably yours is too.

“This is the third occasion that Norbiton has split 2 Lab and 1 Lib Dem. The two previous occasions were 1994 and 2006.”

Actually its the fourth it was split 2 Labour 1 Liberal in 1986 as well.

Out of interest which ward(s) cover the New Malden area? And how do they vote usually?

Beverley covers New Malden that normally votes LD but is now Conservative and Coombe Vale which is normally safe Con but had a an LD in 2002.

1978 – 98 The wards that covered were Burlington, Cambridge where were all Lib dem from 1986 and Norbiton Park was Libe Dem from 1994. All were Con in 78 and 82 (though cambridge had a Lib and 2 Cons I think).

1964-74 not sure which all the wards were but there was a Cambridge and Norbiton Park at least which were both Con 1968-74 but Burlington was Lab in 1964 the only time New Malden had a Lab ward.

Davey certainly won’t win if Labour remind their supporters
that he’s the prime reason for high electricity bills.

“1964-74 not sure which all the wards were but there was a Cambridge and Norbiton Park at least which were both Con 1968-74 but Burlington was Lab in 1964 the only time New Malden had a Lab ward.”

When Burlington existed before 2002 I have to say it was the less salbrious part of New Malden (aside from those KT3 roads in Norbiton ward), so no great surprise really. The more attractive roads in the north of that former ward (now in Beverley) have however become increasingly desirable and expensive over time.

Wolf – not quite sure you’re right. Davey is personally very popular in this constituency, way over & above the popularity of his party. It wasn’t hard when campaigning in Norbiton & also some other wards to find voters who said they would vote for us in the local elections, but thought Davey is doing a great job & that they’d stay with him for the general.

Davey will still hold K & S by about 3,000-6,000 I reckon.

Sutton and Cheam is only Con gain I can see from the Lib Dems and even then I think its unlikely.

Tim Dennen has pleaded guilty to seven counts of benefit fraud. He was a LibDem Cllr here for years til he was expelled in 2010 and stood as an Independent last month, polling 188 votes. He will be sentenced in a fortnight.

I think that Ed Davey will have no problems holding his seat in 2015, and that he might hold this with a majority of about 5-6,000 votes.

UKIP might do OK here but given this is London not brilliantly I would have thought. Labour as well might get a small increase in their vote share after years of tactical suppression of their own vote by ED and the Lib Dems.

Incredible to think really now how close this seat was back in 1997 when it was first contested, who knows what might have happened if Norman Lamont had been the Tory candidate here?

Lamont would have lost by a much bigger margin. He was never a popular constituency member and after Black Wednesday became a nationally very unpopular figure as well. It was not normal for such a senior sitting member to be elbowed out by a backbench neighbour and I’d guess you had to be quite unpopular to suffer that fate.

I know you like ironies The Results, the irony in this case being that the Tories have recovered well enough to win back Kingston on the pre 1997 boundaries, it’s Surbiton where the Lib Dems have become quite entrenched.

Tracey did not win the K & S nomination by a huge margin…It was very much in line with the proportion of 9 wards from Surbiton and 6 wards from Kingston Upon Thames.

Had the election been fought on the existing boundaries I estimated that Tracey would have won by around 100 and Lamont by 700.

UKIP perhaps have a little potential in parts of Chessington & Tolworth, but not much elsewhere in the constituency.

They are the only parts of the borough (other than Norbiton) that retains a lower middle class/ upper working class character.

Further north it’s all now chattering classes other than solidly wealthy areas like Coombe.

” 2015
Leadbetter (Con) 23,009
*Davey (LD) 22,953
Dubs (Lab) 8,875
Mountshaft (UKIP) 2,281
Dollin (Green) 1,007
McGuinness (SF) 69

C majority 56
Con gain from LD ”

Perhaps I should revise this to increase UKIP a bit.

Quite apart from anything else, I think it highly unlikely that Alf Dubs will renounce his peerage to stand here.

In any case,Barnaby, peerages cannot be renounced or removed under current UK law. Alfred Dubs is 82 years of age in any case!

True, but he looked very well when I saw him 3 months ago. You will observe that Joe has simply an earlier prediction.

“Kingston Green Party has announced that Clare Keogh will stand as general election candidate for Kingston and Surbiton in 2015.”

http://kingston.greenparty.org.uk/news/kingston-greens-announce-clare-keogh-for-kingston-and-surbiton.html

by-election for Tudor ward will be this Thursday. Should be a very interesting contest. I predict a Conservative hold, with the Lib Dems staying second. The result here could indicate how Kingston & Surbiton votes next year. Lib Dems appear to be throwing the kitchen sink at it.

Labour, Greens and UKIP have also been campaigning here, not sure to what extent. I don’t see it changing much in terms of the ordering from 2014, although Labour may move third. One thing to note is this neighbours Canbury ward where the Greens did rather well in 2014.

Result using the highest vote method from the locals. (sorry lost formatting)

2014 2010 change
Con 1617 40.91 46.94 -6.03
LD 701 17.73 33.96 -16.23
Grn 629 15.91 9.85 6.06
Lab 561 14.19 9.25 4.94
Ukip 445 11.26 0.00 11.26

Please note that Tudor ward is in RIchmond Park constituency. The LD candidate is quite well-known locally & it will be an interesting battle for 2nd place; Labour has indeed worked fairly hard (I myself have done 2 canvasses, and will do a 3rd tomorrow) & having done nothing in May will be hoping for an increase in support. But the Tories should win without any difficulty. All Kingston by-elections since 2010 have seen a rise in Labour share of the vote but of course this is the 1st since the 2014 local elections when the party improved sharply in several wards (most notably Norbiton & Grove).

Ashcroft poll:

LD 38
CON 30
LAB 16
UKIP 10
OTH 7

This was the lowest UKIP result in any of Ashcroft’s marginals today. Strong showing for Davey.

Doesn’t look like the Conservatives will be making any gains in London.

I think Ed Davey will be fine here.
Prediction for 2015-
Davey (Lib Dem)- 43%
Berry (Tory)- 34%
Godfrey (Labour)- 15%
Roberts (UKIP)- 5%
Keogh (Green)- 3%

The St James Ward By Election tonight may be the first electoral test for the Lib Dems since there defeat in Beverly Ward following Derek Osbourne ‘ s resignation.

I think that the Osbourne factor has been damaging to the LDs

St James by-election result:

Con 1123
LD 865
Lab 355
UKIP 206
Green 71

Reasonable result for LD in a Con ward. Swing to them is as much as they were going to get.

“Swing to them is as much as they were going to get”.

That is very a Delphic comment..

Most notable thing about the result is the big falls in the Kipper & Green votes from earlier this year.

Apart from that its a small fall in votes for the Cons & Lab and a small rise for the LibDems,

Sorry, Antiochian, was in a rush and just wanted to get in before Dalek started ramping as evidence of impending Tory triumph…

Its ok, Potter… that’s a splendid rationale!

Attack of the Daleks leaves destruction in its wake..

I think there were three recounts here in 1997, but I’m not 100% sure.

The average vote share for what? Sorry, I’m confused.